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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance
Started:May 14th, 2012 (07:40 PM) by wldman Views / Replies:49,896 / 695
Last Reply:November 1st, 2016 (03:53 PM) Attachments:53

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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance

Old March 15th, 2014, 05:08 PM   #401 (permalink)
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hold winners


wldman View Post
I do not recognize anything on there as "brown" in color, but everything is drawn by the indicator based on the specific settings. I do not draw on the charts manually.

As for the question less trades or more trades...that is interesting. My opinion:

The tiny win is an enemy of long term maximum effectiveness. Do you take them if that is what is being given, hell yes...but I believe that unless the strategy is, by design, aimed at scalping targeting little wins is a losing proposition over time.

Trade frequency is also a good question to consider. In my mind (which is much easier than in practice) knowing when to trade and when to be patient is of very high importance to the execution of an optimal trading plan. For me what generally happens when I am trading well is that I collect all kinds of little losers. Little losers are a good friend as they typically take the place of big giant effing losers that rip your balls clean off. The guy that recognizes a useful relationship with little losers is almost "there" as an effective trader. Now, perhaps the hardest trade to maintain is the big winner. We all have this tremendous desire to book winners, but I'll tell you that letting the winners grow into monsters is the golden key to big consistent wins in trading.

So as a generalization and more specific to your frequency question: Unless you are specifically set up with technology and specific strategies that generate or exploit an identifiable edge on the shorter time frames I'm pretty sure that you will have a better go with lower frequency trades made off analysis that is based on a longer time frame.

Higher frequency, smaller expectations, lower per trade risk times a higher number of trades as opposed to lower frequency, bigger expectations and expanded risk reward.

Happy to expand on any of that or consider what others may add.

Dan

thanks dan
i do not know how to hold the winners, but first i need to entry in then i take some heat, and most of my approach was scalp and i reach the conclusion the dificult it was for me
when i hold the winners and pressit was when i got nice biggeres ,or when i hold a couple of days, but instead of minimize risk to 8 ticks and trade 5 times , maybe 2 trades of 20 ticks sl?
on friday i enter 3 times in the right direction of es, could got 20points, but i lose on 2l of them and +5 on the other
same on zn , +3ticks instead of 50, 6e, +2 instead of +100, then i smell the money, take pennies, and a couple of tiems big losers, bad ,bad
thyank you for your help

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The fight is fair against oneself
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Old March 15th, 2014, 07:22 PM   #402 (permalink)
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alejo View Post
thank you very much, i got your reasoning
and thank you for your explanations
i have a couple of question if you not mind

what is the meaning of a lot of R letter?2 colors
2dvwap is 2 day vwap?
3dvwap is 3 day vwap?
and AB bottom?i imagine a pattern?
cp?
dp?daily pivot, ? (i think pp is daily pivot)

I have coded those indicators, therefore I will try to answer your questions.

-> "R" stands for a potential reversal. It is a pin bar or a higher timeframe x2 pin bar outside the last base (consolidation area).
-> 2D-VWAP is the cumulated VWAP of the two preceding days (average price over 2 days).
-> 3D-VWAP is the cumulated VWAP of the three preceding days (average price over 3 days).
-> CP stands for central pivot, which is yesterday's midline (y_high + y_low) / 2.
-> DP stands for directional pivot, which is obtained by mirroring the central pivot around the main pivot PP (floor pivot).

The area between central pivot and directional pivot is called pivot range. The pivot range is a symmetrical range around the floor pivot and can be used as a proxy for yesterday's value area. The pivot range can further be used as entry location for withtrend setups.

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Old March 16th, 2014, 06:19 AM   #403 (permalink)
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thanks for your explanation



Fat Tails View Post
I have coded those indicators, therefore I will try to answer your questions.

-> "R" stands for a potential reversal. It is a pin bar or a higher timeframe x2 pin bar outside the last base (consolidation area).
-> 2D-VWAP is the cumulated VWAP of the two preceding days (average price over 2 days).
-> 3D-VWAP is the cumulated VWAP of the three preceding days (average price over 3 days).
-> CP stands for central pivot, which is yesterday's midline (y_high + y_low) / 2.
-> DP stands for directional pivot, which is obtained by mirroring the central pivot around the main pivot PP (floor pivot).

The area between central pivot and directional pivot is called pivot range. The pivot range is a symmetrical range around the floor pivot and can be used as a proxy for yesterday's value area. The pivot range can further be used as entry location for withtrend setups.

thanks Harry
as always, very helpful and very fast

alejo

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Old March 17th, 2014, 02:18 PM   #404 (permalink)
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Incommunicado...

through 3/28. Be well and do well guys. Dan

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Old March 17th, 2014, 02:20 PM   #405 (permalink)
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modified band and R reversal

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wldman View Post
ADN is average daily noise. ADR is average daily range. Maybe @Fat Tails will comment on his intellectual contributions. What I can give you on that is that every product has a range to put in each day. If the ADR is 80 over the last 20 days and so far on the current day the range is 22 how do I feel about the potential for the rest of the session based on recent history? I can quickly hunt up price levels at which a move from current price would be consistent with recent past history. When I see areas of confluence or items of S/R at those areas, what might I think about the ability of price to touch that area again? Some guys would call that anecdotal, some would call it superstition...but I stopped being offended long ago. Again, I can expand on that and I welcome the productive input of others.

As for your specific trade: I usually do not comment on that because I can't know your experience or how you have developed your approach or your discretion for a specific trade. I can only tell you if I'd be the same way, against your view or square at any specific time.

Okay, you are trading March here...June is front month now.

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So, in my opinion, the sell side momentum seems to have disapated and IMO you are late to the party there. Hind sight on my side of course...and a rather funny market the past few days. Real time I did not have that benefit and my personal bias was lower. I did not trade the long side, not even after the US open and it was screaming at me. BUT I was square because short against green green green NEVER wins. Hope that helps. Again, open to what you and others may have to contribute there.

Dan

dan,
today i was seting up the session pivot v42, OHLv42 from @Fat Tails, and i got interesting feeling about the macro info i got from there,(it is incredible the effort&help that this trader does for everybody)

i have a couple of questions
what is modified band?
and how is the set to appears the R (reversal), and the counter of bars (1,2,3,4,5,...on the price action)?
the golden line is the middle of adn band?

thanks

alejo

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Old March 17th, 2014, 02:22 PM   #406 (permalink)
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fantastic job @fattails


alejo View Post
thanks Harry
as always, very helpful and very fast

alejo

@fattails
it is incredible the job that you do,
only i installed the session pivot & ohl (daily) and i got amazed.
thank you very much

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Old March 17th, 2014, 03:01 PM   #407 (permalink)
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Hey man...

@alejo

Correct @Fat Tails is brilliant and amazing. Every item in my view except one is his creation or has his fingerprints on it. I will not be able to type much to respond today, but if you Skype, we could probably cover some ground. I am dbones@splendidbenefits.com

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Old April 15th, 2014, 08:49 AM   #408 (permalink)
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Okay...

I wonder what guys think of a "directional governor" in essence a way to only enter positions in the direction of the longer term trend or to "allow" trades on both sides, with a diminished R/R expectation for trades against the trend.

If we range 80% of the time and we trend 20% of the time, what does that mean?

So there is a distinction between trend reversal and range trading. How do we tell or can we tell the difference?

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Old April 15th, 2014, 09:21 AM   #409 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
I wonder what guys think of a "directional governor" in essence a way to only enter positions in the direction of the longer term trend or to "allow" trades on both sides, with a diminished R/R expectation for trades against the trend.

If we range 80% of the time and we trend 20% of the time, what does that mean?

So there is a distinction between trend reversal and range trading. How do we tell or can we tell the difference?

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What are the MA numbers

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Old April 15th, 2014, 09:26 AM   #410 (permalink)
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So...


Still short side bias, with a little more evidence, but...

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