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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance
Started:May 14th, 2012 (07:40 PM) by wldman Views / Replies:49,819 / 695
Last Reply:November 1st, 2016 (03:53 PM) Attachments:53

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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance

Old February 28th, 2014, 08:14 AM   #391 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
...results show month to date -$15,000.

How in the world is that possible? I only take about 30% of the indicated trades. I'm usually seeing a win percentage between 50% and 60%. Seeing the back test results does not build confidence. The likelihood of being lucky over the course of a career is statistically nil. Yet I can not identify why I decline what would be indicated trades. Really interesting and not at all what I expected.

Trading, wins and losses sometimes are like a sauna:
Heating up just before it explodes - then
cooling down in ice water... brrr

Keeps life goin'

Happy weekend
GFIs1

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Old February 28th, 2014, 12:47 PM   #392 (permalink)
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Guys...

I do not have the time this Friday that I did last week. Thanks for posting and PM'ing, especially the code help. I look forward to stripping some bad branches off the tree and having a productive March.

Dan

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Old March 10th, 2014, 02:20 PM   #393 (permalink)
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but I'll take a shot. Hey @NinjaTrader

How do you set up to enter via strategy and utilize ATM to manage exits? So rather than one startegy that buys and sells ...always in the market ala Welles Wilder SAR. Would it be smart to build a buy strat and a sell strat? Then how would you exit those via ATM

Just saw this, your best bet is to post in the NinjaTrader support forum. This is possible, we even have a SampleATMStrategy (installed by default) that demonstrates this.

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Old March 15th, 2014, 07:19 AM   #394 (permalink)
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question


wldman View Post
not due to ANYTHING other than a friend saying, "now this thing has the fuel to try 3770 again". So better lucky than good...but I've never been handsome.

So that one piece of analysis that looks like something that nobody talks about had this to say today. Scroll up to see yesterday.

I am looking for my Hopium: I hope next time I see this...lol:

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what is adn?

thanks

alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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Old March 15th, 2014, 08:53 AM   #395 (permalink)
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less trades

Futures Edge on FIO

wldman View Post
@Fat Tails

Thanks for explaining your approach there. My last clear trade was the oatmeal trade that I missed short from 1.3050. The possible re-entry short was 1.3035ish but I am adjusting to the "black zone" as you describe as a no trade area. That said, sell more there (1.3035 area) and a profit locking stop around the low of that last hour auction bar would have been the the decision point had I been on the initial short.

Thank you for the insight around S1 as well. I am hopeful that as guys post their opinion that I can combine that with my view and your approach to craft a personal "user's manual" for the fs series.

One thing that I need to amend is my floor trader psychology that I need to be on EVERY trade. I continue to focus on the bottom 20% in the hope of reforming to the point where I am avoiding small winners.

Dan

doyou considere very important to take less trades and big winners?, than more little winners?

and what is the brown areas?automatic or manually placed ?

thanks


alejo

pd:i am looking for sample simple to try if i can have an edge with that and try to practice it to see if i can execute it respecting my plan.any ihelp?

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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Old March 15th, 2014, 11:19 AM   #396 (permalink)
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Hey man...

@alejo

This indicator that you asked about is called anaCurrentDayOHLV42 created by the highly respected member @Fat Tails. I'd certainly invite Fat Tails to comment on his indicator and application here as every time he does I learn something new...or if he prefers he can direct you to an appropriate thread. In the pic below I have expanded the text box in response to your question and included my settings for your review.

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Old March 15th, 2014, 12:05 PM   #397 (permalink)
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Okay...


alejo View Post
doyou considere very important to take less trades and big winners?, than more little winners?

and what is the brown areas?automatic or manually placed ?

thanks


alejo

pd:i am looking for sample simple to try if i can have an edge with that and try to practice it to see if i can execute it respecting my plan.any ihelp?

I do not recognize anything on there as "brown" in color, but everything is drawn by the indicator based on the specific settings. I do not draw on the charts manually.

As for the question less trades or more trades...that is interesting. My opinion:

The tiny win is an enemy of long term maximum effectiveness. Do you take them if that is what is being given, hell yes...but I believe that unless the strategy is, by design, aimed at scalping targeting little wins is a losing proposition over time.

Trade frequency is also a good question to consider. In my mind (which is much easier than in practice) knowing when to trade and when to be patient is of very high importance to the execution of an optimal trading plan. For me what generally happens when I am trading well is that I collect all kinds of little losers. Little losers are a good friend as they typically take the place of big giant effing losers that rip your balls clean off. The guy that recognizes a useful relationship with little losers is almost "there" as an effective trader. Now, perhaps the hardest trade to maintain is the big winner. We all have this tremendous desire to book winners, but I'll tell you that letting the winners grow into monsters is the golden key to big consistent wins in trading.

So as a generalization and more specific to your frequency question: Unless you are specifically set up with technology and specific strategies that generate or exploit an identifiable edge on the shorter time frames I'm pretty sure that you will have a better go with lower frequency trades made off analysis that is based on a longer time frame.

Higher frequency, smaller expectations, lower per trade risk times a higher number of trades as opposed to lower frequency, bigger expectations and expanded risk reward.

Happy to expand on any of that or consider what others may add.

Dan

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Old March 15th, 2014, 12:14 PM   #398 (permalink)
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adn


wldman View Post
I do not recognize anything on there as "brown" in color, but everything is drawn by the indicator based on the specific settings. I do not draw on the charts manually.

As for the question less trades or more trades...that is interesting. My opinion:

The tiny win is an enemy of long term maximum effectiveness. Do you take them if that is what is being given, hell yes...but I believe that unless the strategy is, by design, aimed at scalping targeting little wins is a losing proposition over time.

Trade frequency is also a good question to consider. In my mind (which is much easier than in practice) knowing when to trade and when to be patient is of very high importance to the execution of an optimal trading plan. For me what generally happens when I am trading well is that I collect all kinds of little losers. Little losers are a good friend as they typically take the place of big giant effing losers that rip your balls clean off. The guy that recognizes a useful relationship with little losers is almost "there" as an effective trader. Now, perhaps the hardest trade to maintain is the big winner. We all have this tremendous desire to book winners, but I'll tell you that letting the winners grow into monsters is the golden key to big consistent wins in trading.

So as a generalization and more specific to your frequency question: Unless you are specifically set up with technology and specific strategies that generate or exploit an identifiable edge on the shorter time frames I'm pretty sure that you will have a better go with lower frequency trades made off analysis that is based on a longer time frame.

Higher frequency, smaller expectations, lower per trade risk times a higher number of trades as opposed to lower frequency, bigger expectations and expanded risk reward.

Happy to expand on any of that or consider what others may add.

Dan

thanks, dan
you right it is not brown here ,it is grey
adn what is?

i check your thread to find some clues, for a simpler setup, do you have some guidance

could you check this open trade to give me your opinion
https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/27399-alejo-s-trading-journal-32.html#post396572
i wen t short with key reversal down, but now i am feeling counter trend

thanks

alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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Old March 15th, 2014, 12:51 PM   #399 (permalink)
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Hello..

ADN is average daily noise. ADR is average daily range. Maybe @Fat Tails will comment on his intellectual contributions. What I can give you on that is that every product has a range to put in each day. If the ADR is 80 over the last 20 days and so far on the current day the range is 22 how do I feel about the potential for the rest of the session based on recent history? I can quickly hunt up price levels at which a move from current price would be consistent with recent past history. When I see areas of confluence or items of S/R at those areas, what might I think about the ability of price to touch that area again? Some guys would call that anecdotal, some would call it superstition...but I stopped being offended long ago. Again, I can expand on that and I welcome the productive input of others.

As for your specific trade: I usually do not comment on that because I can't know your experience or how you have developed your approach or your discretion for a specific trade. I can only tell you if I'd be the same way, against your view or square at any specific time.

Okay, you are trading March here...June is front month now.

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So, in my opinion, the sell side momentum seems to have disapated and IMO you are late to the party there. Hind sight on my side of course...and a rather funny market the past few days. Real time I did not have that benefit and my personal bias was lower. I did not trade the long side, not even after the US open and it was screaming at me. BUT I was square because short against green green green NEVER wins. Hope that helps. Again, open to what you and others may have to contribute there.

Dan

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Old March 15th, 2014, 05:03 PM   #400 (permalink)
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i see your analisys and why i am on the wrong side



wldman View Post
ADN is average daily noise. ADR is average daily range. Maybe @Fat Tails will comment on his intellectual contributions. What I can give you on that is that every product has a range to put in each day. If the ADR is 80 over the last 20 days and so far on the current day the range is 22 how do I feel about the potential for the rest of the session based on recent history? I can quickly hunt up price levels at which a move from current price would be consistent with recent past history. When I see areas of confluence or items of S/R at those areas, what might I think about the ability of price to touch that area again? Some guys would call that anecdotal, some would call it superstition...but I stopped being offended long ago. Again, I can expand on that and I welcome the productive input of others.
thank you


As for your specific trade: I usually do not comment on that because I can't know your experience
i am a struggling loser beginner ,trying to learn, looking to trade sucesfully, i use to trade zn, es, and i am testing and investigating others markets to test how fit with me, based on opportunities with momentum, and these is how come to 6e, the other day

and i look for some specialist in 66 (this is how i find you)


or how you have developed your approach or your discretion for a specific trade. I can only tell you if I'd be the same way, against your view or square at any specific time.

thanks

Okay, you are trading March here...June is front month now.

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So, in my opinion, the sell side momentum seems to have disapated and IMO you are late to the party there. Hind sight on my side of course...and a rather funny market the past few days. Real time I did not have that benefit and my personal bias was lower. I did not trade the long side, not even after the US open and it was screaming at me. BUT I was square because short against green green green NEVER wins. Hope that helps. Again, open to what you and others may have to contribute there.

Dan


thank you very much, i got your reasoning
and thank you for your explanations

i could not see all that things while i was trading in that moments live
i saw the sell off and re enter late, (i close a short at 1.3934 only for +2, and the problem was i think i lost this sell off, )

first i set the stop 1 tick above the daily key reversal bar, but friday i said, mmhhh, and i building a big problem...

i have a couple of question if you not mind

what is the meaning of a lot of R letter?2 colors
2dvwap is 2 day vwap?
3dvwap is 3 day vwap?
and AB bottom?i imagine a pattern?
cp?
dp?daily pivot, ? (i think pp is daily pivot)

sorry for my ignorance:
what is the momentum indicator and is it apart from cci that i have read on your post before in your thread?(because they are togueter?, same axis
adaptative 18 is that momentum indi?


(i trade the june, see the last charts ,when say open ecm14)


thank you very much for your help, and i appreciate your time and your effort to help me

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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