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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance
Started:May 14th, 2012 (07:40 PM) by wldman Views / Replies:49,842 / 695
Last Reply:November 1st, 2016 (03:53 PM) Attachments:53

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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance

Old January 24th, 2014, 09:47 AM   #341 (permalink)
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Built it Devil Man...

@Devil Man

The soul strives amain to live and work through all things. It would be the only fact. All things shall be added unto it power, pleasure, knowledge, beauty. The particular man aims to be somebody; to set up for himself; to truck and higgle for a private good; and, in particulars, to ride, that he may ride; to dress, that he may be dressed; to eat, that he may eat; and to govern, that he may be seen. Men seek to be great; they would have offices, wealth, power, and fame. They think that to be great is to possess one side of nature, -- the sweet, without the other side, -- the bitter.

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Old January 24th, 2014, 09:53 AM   #342 (permalink)
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thank you for the inspiration


wldman View Post
@Devil Man

The soul strives amain to live and work through all things. It would be the only fact. All things shall be added unto it power, pleasure, knowledge, beauty. The particular man aims to be somebody; to set up for himself; to truck and higgle for a private good; and, in particulars, to ride, that he may ride; to dress, that he may be dressed; to eat, that he may eat; and to govern, that he may be seen. Men seek to be great; they would have offices, wealth, power, and fame. They think that to be great is to possess one side of nature, -- the sweet, without the other side, -- the bitter.

@wldman thank you for the inspiration...powerful words.

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Old January 24th, 2014, 11:05 AM   #343 (permalink)
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@Adamus

The book, I would not say that it debunks technical analysis, rather I'd say that the book accurately states that a subjective method is non-testable. Further claiming that an objective rule based method converted to an algorithm can be back tested and duplicated. Both of those statements are true in my estimation. That said, I've been trading what I know to be a largely discretionary method with pretty good success for years. My personal view of back testing is that it is a waste of time...a fool's game really. But here is the trick. It was posed to me about 4 years ago that my "system" as a method was in fact something that was capable of being "programmed" if I was diligent enough to document all of the objective and subjective items that went into the decision metric. At the time, I also believed that was a fool's game. Plus, as someone suggested a couple posts up, much of the heuristic is sub-conscious at this point.

Here is why I am interested now. Most of my post market trade evaluation is spent on the bottom 20% of trades. For the last 12-18 months the bottom 20% are all losing trades. Almost everyone would say that is typical. But the year prior to that I'd have days where the bottom 20% of trades included winning trades. That is not normal. Important to say here that win rate is somewhat subjective in and of itself, but most claims of better that 60% win rate are highly qualified or highly suspect. Very prolific and successful guys will say that their win rate is more like 40%

So it is possible but unlikely that someone "me" could throw together a string of "good luck". So I am investigating in an attempt to isolate what I am really looking at in a trade decision metric because I believe that I can be better with out falling into the back testing hall of fame or a worse distinction all world sim trader. I'd be interested in creating the algo for gray box purposes and to simplify the decision metric down to the simplest series or confluence possible. I can not code at all so I'll try to do the project in public to both avoid expense and gain from perspective other than my own.

Okay back to "the book". It is having an impact on my trading in that it is making me question every element in the process...that sucks this week but will go ex-dividend soon, I am sure. Those interested in information on the book can PM me their e-mail. I will try to post observation from the book relative to how my metric has been called to question. I can post some trades in close to real time but that is not paramount. Necessary will be the losers and the trades I missed as well if the "documentation" of discretion is to be accurate and valuable. I do promise no bull shit and that I will try not to be distracted by it in the thread. Best that we all be honest, direct and open.

Dan

Well I'm a programmer by training. I started out learning programming by programming things I wanted myself on my pc, like an address book. Now when I'm working as a programmer/developer, I convert someone's requirements into an application that fulfills their needs. And in my trading career now, I am trying to do the same - turn a discretionary trading method into a set of rules. The difference here is that I'm not going to mechanise it or script it at this point - I just need to iron out the subjectivity and make sure all my rules are objective, regardless or not of whether they might need a Cray supercomputer to run if they were a program.

So that's the crux of it - turning subjectivity into objectivity. Subjectivity here means actually there is a rule somewhere in your head that is objective, it's just that you might not be aware of it. The challenge is to work it out. It can be quite a time-consuming process in some instances with some rules. You might have a subconscious feeling based on something you see that you are totally unaware of, which makes you bullish or bearish. To get that rule out of your subconscious and into your defined rules, you would have to catch it happening, and then really study the charts to work out what it might have been that triggered it.

And to make it more complicated, you not only have to define bullish / bearish, you also have to quantify its strength and its relationship with other signals that come at the same setup.

My actual trading attempts were badly affected by my programming-analysis mentality. Every time I saw something that looked like a statistic - e.g. this is the first counter-trend close in the trend - could it be a reversal? Or this is a failure to break the opening range - will it reverse across the range? etc. Every time I would waste time wondering if that was a statistic in my favour or not, without a hope of knowing because I hadn't done the research. Now one of the reasons I'm trying to write down every rule in my system is so that I can just ignore this stuff (or note it down for possible examination later).

I'm going off on a tangent - what I mean to say is, my first steps now to codify my method are simply to define how I define and possibly quantify a trend. And a range, because if I can't define a trend, then it must be a range, right? Or not maybe. I'm spending a lot of time staring at charts thinking, well I just don't know.

Hopefullly you're finding it easier. It'll be interesting to see what you post.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Old January 24th, 2014, 01:49 PM   #344 (permalink)
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Hey...

@Adamus

Staring just like you are...and not finding it easy at all today.

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Old January 24th, 2014, 02:22 PM   #345 (permalink)
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Okay..

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
lets start with the bad ones. Next week I will break down each element on the screen and hopefully be exposed buy a few why this one but not this one type questions. Net -$89 bucks today. The second losing day in Jan and not very significant $ wise, but I freakin hate to lose.
well only one bad one to show from the collection because I want to eat.

The top chart is three min, the bottom a 610 tick. One said sell and I was in love with sell ES. The other chart was suggesting not so fast with your short side romance, I ignored that of course...not even sure if i looked at it.

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Hope you guys don't mind the shit example of me screwing it up put of the box...but the only way we learn is to live in our weakness. There will be plenty of "holy shit" nice ones to show but those don't teach me anything and they only create in you an exaggerated view of the wldman.

So next week I'll break it down by individual visual element. Please jump in with what you see or what you wonder.

Dan

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Old January 24th, 2014, 02:28 PM   #346 (permalink)
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Link to...

something that I suggested to @Devil Man this morning in the chat box. Maybe I've read this 100 times in the last 20 years, probably more. The essay, in my opinion, is a great metaphor for trading. I'll be reading it a couple times this weekend as it is expected to reach -18 degrees here by Monday.

III Compensation

Dan

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Old January 24th, 2014, 03:27 PM   #347 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
something that I suggested to @Devil Man this morning in the chat box. Maybe I've read this 100 times in the last 20 years, probably more. The essay, in my opinion, is a great metaphor for trading. I'll be reading it a couple times this weekend as it is expected to reach -18 degrees here by Monday.

III Compensation

Dan

@wldman I'll have a response for yesterdays reply by tomorrow, as my brain has been sufficiently taxed for the day.

But until then I agree the Compensation is a great read. here is a link to a great reading of it.

"If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong."
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Old January 24th, 2014, 06:30 PM   #348 (permalink)
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Thank you...

@addchild

My brain at its best is too slow for listening to Emerson. I have to read it and feel every word. That recording will be a great benefit for the guys that do better hearing it.

Dan

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Old January 24th, 2014, 06:57 PM   #349 (permalink)
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wldman market wizard!!!!


wldman View Post
lets start with the bad ones. Next week I will break down each element on the screen and hopefully be exposed buy a few why this one but not this one type questions. Net -$89 bucks today. The second losing day in Jan and not very significant $ wise, but I freakin hate to lose.
well only one bad one to show from the collection because I want to eat.

The top chart is three min, the bottom a 610 tick. One said sell and I was in love with sell ES. The other chart was suggesting not so fast with your short side romance, I ignored that of course...not even sure if i looked at it.

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Hope you guys don't mind the shit example of me screwing it up put of the box...but the only way we learn is to live in our weakness. There will be plenty of "holy shit" nice ones to show but those don't teach me anything and they only create in you an exaggerated view of the wldman.

So next week I'll break it down by individual visual element. Please jump in with what you see or what you wonder.

Dan

Not bad to only have 2 losing days this month. And a small one today to boot. Thanks for posting your charts. It's interesting to see peoples methods.

By the way, why aren't you a market wizard yet? I'll throw my vote in right now.

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Old February 8th, 2014, 12:24 PM   #350 (permalink)
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Okay, I'm going to...


commit to learning.

I want to revitalize part of a method that I used for years. There are two outcomes that I seek from this.

First, I need to begin to learn the most basic C# coding so that at the least, I can converse with those proficient members that continue to contribute. There are a bunch of you but @Fat Tails and @Zondor are at the top of the list.

Second, I believe that I can improve my result by moving out to a longer time frame. Many days IB makes more money from my trades than I do. I'm pretty sure that on 6E the 144 tick chart and on ES the 610 tick chart my set ups prompt me to take many trades that are simply "noise". To be valid, a method must be robust...meaning that it works on all products and all time frames.


Last edited by wldman; February 8th, 2014 at 01:03 PM.
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