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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance
Started:May 14th, 2012 (07:40 PM) by wldman Views / Replies:49,670 / 695
Last Reply:November 1st, 2016 (03:53 PM) Attachments:53

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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance

Old April 18th, 2013, 09:16 AM   #271 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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That is a good question...

@mongoose

and I'm open to suggestions.

One reason to post again is to help identify just that. One of the guys in the little collaboration here has had a terrible time transitioning to screen based trading. I did suffer a negative impact trying to "automate" before I just abandoned that idea all together. No disrespect for the guys that prefer that or certainly for the ones that actually make it work, but so far that route is not for me.

I have run both black and grey box automated strategies with some success UNTIL something that the "code" was not "prepared for" comes along and rips 'em both off.

SOLD 1.3062 btw...charts coming later....luck as it is moving on news...but it all spends the same.

Since I like body parts where they belong and not on the floor, I had to back away from that type of venture. I have been convinced that ALL items of discretion and psychology can be "coded" BUT, not by me or by anyone I know and trust.

So after I found'em and picked 'em up I started to think about the logic of my "discretion" as it applied to what has to be called trading "rules" or considerations within a method.

1.3040 bid to cover BTW, profit lock stop 1.3052.

There are two approaches, I think, someone add if applicable. You can define trade entry triggers by a confluence of non co-linear indicators or you can define trade entry trigger by a hierarchical series of non co linear indicators. For the non or anti indicator crowd...price IS KING of all indicators.

Stopped off resting 52 bid, 10 ticks, yeah wldman. Stop placed there because I have about 8 inches of water in my basement...lol

So the answer, mongoose, has two parts. First and most basic, I have four charts for EC and four for ES each with the breakdown or indi roster as shown because having all of that info coming in on one or two charts would make my eyes bleed. I did some research on visual ergonomics. That research had to do with the visual field the visual pattern as well as the color of displayed objects...it is still a work in progress.

Past trying to identify what is most useful most often the cleaner individual charts allow for a "scoring" and for mapping a "progression" as it relates to trade entry trigger. So the non trading process of evaluating the aforementioned will allow the least valuable items to be removed from view until a point where a main confluence or main hierarchical progression can be determined.

At that point one of the guys will TRY to code that into an automated strategy. I operate under the notion that Ken Griffin used to build Citadel. Multiple strategies scored and assessed capital simultaneously based on "score".

Does that provide an adequate answer, or am I distracted by floodwaters?

Thanks for stopping by and the question.

Dan

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Old April 18th, 2013, 09:30 AM   #272 (permalink)
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Okay...

Not a rock solid super strong multi supported entry premis, but sometimes being the guy with the golden horseshoe stuck up his...well you know.

I do not make it a practice of taking 1:1 trades. I did this time so I could print green for the day and keep the water out of the basement.

The trade I did not resist while answering @mongoose. Some other support as well but not a major "do"

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Old April 18th, 2013, 05:35 PM   #273 (permalink)
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@wldman, thanks for the answer, hopefully the water has stopped coming in. I'm down in the Joliet area, we didn't get any water this time but most of the roads around me are closed.

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Old April 20th, 2013, 03:12 PM   #274 (permalink)
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So, I was thinking...

about what happened the last ten times where divergence was visible on my 6E chart?

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Old April 20th, 2013, 03:33 PM   #275 (permalink)
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Well...

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
maybe 10 is too many for the time I have.

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So, that does look like something a trader might want to identify. I realize one is a horse poop sample, but the wife says fix the screen on the back door or she will invite 6 11 yr olds for a sleepover.

So what do we think of "divergence" and how might it be used?

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Old April 20th, 2013, 05:01 PM   #276 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
... I realize one is a horse poop sample, but the wife says fix the screen on the back door or she will invite 6 11 yr olds for a sleepover.

So what do we think of "divergence" and how might it be used?

I would say your wife uses it pretty well, even with a sample size of one

Vvhg

Hic Rhodos, hic salta.
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Old April 20th, 2013, 08:16 PM   #277 (permalink)
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So what do we think of "divergence" and how might it be used?

In my view, divergence, like most indicators, in general, has no meaning in a vacum. But, with a little bit of an autopsy, and some historical context, divergence can be a valuable tool to lean on.

The autopsy: what does the divergence actually represent? So what does the indicator represent, and why should it matter that while price is trading at a new high (low), the value of the indicator isn't?

The historical context: after gaining an understanding of the divergence, does the argument carry water? How often do you expect it to fail? and what were the sizes of the divergence?


In my own trading (my style would likely be considered trend following or momentum) I use one very specific divergence for several purposes, If the divergence lines up with the broader market (everything is starting to turn) Then I will use it as a chance to get an early entry on a trade, as an attempt to keep my average risk on a position down. If it occurs later in the day, I will use it as a sign to start looking for a chance to get out of whatever position im in (assuming that I am in an position opposite to the divergence), or just to avoid taking a new position all together.


"If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong."
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Old April 22nd, 2013, 08:13 AM   #278 (permalink)
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That is right...

Vic

@vvhg She is nearly perfect and almost always gets her target.

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Old April 22nd, 2013, 08:23 AM   #279 (permalink)
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Thank you...

@addchild

I agree that we don't think anything of any indicator in a vacuum. To develop our discretion we have to take the context, the recent history and our experience into consideration.

Do you score items in a confluence or do you look for a series of things to set up trade entry?

Meaning this plus this plus this is probably enough, take this trigger entry. Or this then this then this is falling in line, take the trigger entry?

In combining a set of non co-linears, which type of items seem to work together with price to provide a good "read"?

How do we decide?

DB

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Old April 22nd, 2013, 08:25 AM   #280 (permalink)
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Looked like enough...


but I'm not totally "on" yet. Is there a morning ritual that could help?

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