For me, the days with increasing volatility and aggressive direction change are some of the most difficult, When you are basing trades off vwap I think the conservative approach would have been selling against the lower 1st SD.
Also, I've missed this journal, glad you are starting to pick it up again.
"If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong."
The following 2 users say Thank You to addchild for this post:
It really depends on the timeframe. If you look at the same situation on a 1-min chart, then there clearly is some support (1), the break through the VWAP (2) and a retest (3) afterwards. There are 3 green bars representing 3 minutes when price moved back to the VWAP. An entry (4) was possible after the retracement back to the VWAP.
The higher time frame in combination with the Heikin-Ashi bars hides that price action.
However, I must admit that there was no such hesitation, when price broke through the VWAP to the upside about on hour earlier. I am a bit careful with applying VWAP to currency futures. The FOREX markets are much larger, so I would prefer to calculate the VWAP based on FOREX volume or at least FOREX tick volume. Currency futures are only the tail of the dog. The intraday volume distribution of 6E may not be representative for the EURUSD FOREX volume. In any case the VWAP calcatulated from the volume of 6E seems to be better than the TWAP, as the TWAP overstates the importance of the Asian session.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
When you all contribute to this thread as is going on here, it will become like a encyclopedia of the described method with input from all kinds of valuable perspectives.
One of the issues with the Chicago collaborative that might be interesting as it relates to the aggressive style is the perspective that all of us bring as former floor traders or market makers. We feel compelled to be on every trade. In the crowd, in fact, we'd fight with guys for the "spot" we stood in and once established we fought for every contract. "Paper" or customer order flow was key to everyone's edge, regardless of the traders specific method...you want order flow.
Past that the crowd tends to have the same or similar position. It was always a frenzy and sometimes a war when orders came to the pit.
So, because of that I am always early and often wrong small with the benefit of a lead when the rest of our "new crowd" staring at screens gets on the trade. I do not know that I want to abandon that, BUT, I love the perspective s that you guys are sharing. Exposure to each one makes me better.
The following user says Thank You to wldman for this post:
You where around when that base price pressure template was being born. It was amazing how one guy there tried to claim and shepherd that entire discussion. Everything cloaked in secrecy, numerology and the like. Hope you are well and trading well. Please comment and add your perspective Sudhir.
Watch the prior two NT8 webinars on futures.io (formerly BMT), and attend the next one on April 25th. It's been covered in all of them.
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
If you want to support our community, become an Elite Member.
@Big Mike but between now and the end of the year is a little vague for me to schedule time off. Of course Ray has said everything will be beautiful. I believe that he believes that. Very excited for the changes that he mentioned in the webinars. Some members have posted in the past indicating that sometimes things happen. I'd prefer to lower my expectation around an event over which I have no control.
If NT 8 comes out smooth and stays sterling, I'll but the lifetime license and knock that little monthly expense off the books.