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A CL Trading Journal


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A CL Trading Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

The first thing I want to do is qoute this guy Monpere.

"Everything sucks a certain percentage of the time, that includes indicators, pure price action, and any combination in between. Trading is not about a certain thing being always right or wrong or even being right more times then it is wrong. Trading is about the percentage of time that thing is right, and how much money you generally make when it's right versus how much money you lose when it is wrong. An indicator that is right 30% of the time can still make you a boat load of money, if within that 30% of the time it is right you have a money management approach that makes more money then that 70% of the time when it is wrong. Familiarize yourself with, and apply the concepts of Expectancy, and backtesting to determine if your method is a method that will be profitable."

Wow! Well said!

I've been keeping a journal for about two months now. I've not posted it because it takes alot of effort to keep up a journal off line and online too. However I want to help anyone as I've been helped. Also it's not lost on me that in helping I will be helped, thats a spirituial law, I firmly adhere to.


This is my trading plan

My Trading Goal:

I plan to target 50 ticks a week on the CL, and trade no more than 3 days a week. I'm doing this so I do not become overwhelmed. I will add 1 contract for every three thousand dollars earned until I am trading 7 contracts and then I'll maintain for a year. I'll trade as little as possible, I'm doing this so I don't become overwhelmed.

The CL gaps a lot, and buying or selling at the open when it does often produces price movement up to and beyond 30 ticks. I'll expect at least 20 ticks in all those situations. With an initial stop of 15 ticks to be moved accordingly.

After the open I'll look for “Pull Backs” or “Back To Moving Average Trade” I also will be taking notice of the 5 minute chart what the volume is like and the mood of the market, from each 5 minute bar to the next. The way a 5 minute bar closes is important and will be considered accordingly.

My Setups

1. Buying or selling at the open: I will buy or sell at the open given there is sufficient momentum. Target two points. Stop is 15 ticks but to moved accordingly.

2. Pull Backs: Prices move to make a “New Low, or High” and pulls back at least 20 ticks. The MACD is above or below its zero line. The 50EMA has been the correct color for the intended trade direction. Background is green or red ideally.

3. Back To Moving Average Trade(BTMAT): Price is off the high or low and is closing inside the 50EMA. The target is the white 34EMA or 10 ticks. Stop is set to 14 ticks.

Picture of Pull Back and BTMAT below


The Initial Balance or IB

Not something I have talked about yet, but need to. I will trade before the IB is in. But after it is in, and I've marked it on my charts I will give a lot of consideration to the IB High and Low. I have had some success with figuring out what “Day Type” we will have, after the IB is in. It's just a matter of watching how price reacts to these levels and responses to it.

Psychologically this is important to keep in mind


1. You can win, and you should win.
2. Trading is a auction process, price rise because there is more demand than supply.
3. No one knows you, or is out to get you personally.
4. The market doesn’t know you
5. Something is always happening even when it seems like it's not.
6. Do not become bored, or stagnate while trading, stay alert, ready for anything




You have to be willing to be bored Chad, just deal with it, get over it, this is what it is.

Don’t go “looking” for something. Wait for your trades to come, know they will. Know

your trades will come. Don’t jump the gun, stop fucking around with it, it's time to get

on with the business side of making money. You have to stop now, and just do what

works. You will lose, know it, own it. But you will win also.

Thats the end of it. The Charts below are the four I use. 150tick chart main, 5minute help with direction, 60minute to help with IB, and Daily so I dont get caught with my pants down.

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  #3 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received


I was going to post my journal from April up till now. However I saved it all, and the pictures in OpenOffice.org, a free program. I thought I might just be able to tell people to download it, and I could just provide a link to my journal. However I realize this wont work, because I will lose the picture, just for the sake of posting it here. So I'm starting with today

May 7 2012 Plus 828 dollars 1 contract 31 trades 9 loss 22 wins.

After the prior two day when it gaped huge I thought a bounce of some degree would happen. I mean this is my week right here. All I have to do is maintain and don’t screw it up later on in the week. I had so many trades because things where going my way. I was right, a lot, and I've learned when that happens to keep going till your proven wrong. I cant say I did anything wrong today. Good day

Below are three pictures. Two are of the first part of the trading day and the second on the 150 tick chart. The third is of the 5 minute chart. Also is a picture of all the stats.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
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Congrats on the journal, looking forward to it.

Mike

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  #5 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Tuesday May 8, 25 trades + 475 dollars 17 wins nine loss's

Had the direction right today but was knocked out alot. Thats something I just have learned to accept, their is no way I'm going to get the perfect entry every time. I can kill my thought process by thinking "if" I'll get stoped out or not. I'm thinking in terms of "Starting Monday I know I can make atleast 500 dollars on the CL".

One thing is the trade where I made 380, looks like I just decided to hold after a string of loss's. That wasn't the case. By that time the IB was in, and I was sure on the direction. Their was a Daily Gap and a 60 minute Gap and I took profit at the daily gap. Why? Because that's enough, and their is no way to tell if it will bounce or not. Until it does right? That trade put me back ahead a little, so I was good with it.

Their was a section in the morning where I took three loss's in a row. Looking at it now I see I was to lose, but I'm not going to regret it or dwell on it, just try to be effective in not allowing it to happen again.

The IB

I am trading my trades in and around the IB. I am active in trying to figure out what "Day Type" we will have. I am also active in monitoring a 5 minute charts with MP on it and watching when the POC changes for the day. It helps in trying to decide if people are vauling new prices, and if prices will rise or fall.

Added two more pictures second one in next post. The point of showing this is to show that the POC remained so long near the low of the day. A rise was likely to occur, along with good volume.

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  #6 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Second 5 minute chart picture

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  #7 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

For Wensday May 9

Below is a picture of a 5 minute chart and a MP of the past three days. You can see where the POC is, and thats exactly what I'm thinking for as a target "if" it goes long. I personally dont think it could make it to 150.0 before sellers stepping back in, and catching what they missed on the gaps. Also a retracement back to the "white" trend line is highly likely at some point and is another potential target. Not to hold to, but to trade to.

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  #8 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Wensday May 9 Plus 416 dollars 14 trades

Ok well I'm posting this now cause I'm done. 9:52 right after Oil inventory, prices went and hit yesterdays prior POC. Disturbed in the morning went up after report, I got that, that's it.

Their is a 5 minute chart below showing where I got in at, eventually target was that red line, the POC from yesterday. Now I didn't hold it till then, that's nuts, and it almost never happens that it just runs right to it. I did enter three more times "to it". I can do that, I'm good at that.

Also a picture of the 150 tick chart with all the wins and loss's.

Whats good about today?

I was down 360 and made it back. That's good. Whats better is that I didn't "try" to make it back, I traded my trades and that made it back. I knew it would, either today, tomorrow or the next. Also I had better entries, was more focused on that, and got it.

So I wont post again till Monday. The plan is to make 500 a week, and or trade no more than three days a week, so I do not become overwhelmed.

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  #9 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Monday May 14 Minus 255 dollars 21 trades 1 contract

Well today blew! Such low volume and the thing just didn't go anywhere. I feel good that the loss was limited to what it was. My goal is to never ever lose more than 400 in one day. Go again tomorrow

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  #10 (permalink)
SteveH
Orlando, Florida, USA
 
 
Posts: 34 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 96 received


On a 150T CL chart, a 7-10 tick initial stop loss should be plenty to prove whether you're right.

I would recommend that you look at all of your prior winners and find the average MFE and MAE which resulted from those trades. I know it's customary to look at some 1 tick below or above the entry bar for the initial stop, but if your average MAE is smaller, it's telling you that that conventional wisdom is wrong and will cost you extra in losses with no benefit to your bottom line.

 
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  #11 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Whether or not a 7 to 10 tick stop loss is plenty or not, will depend upon your entry. Heck a 4 tick stop can be sufficent enough on the CL to prove if your right or not, but that depends on where you entered and what the next bar did.

I've never been able to get it down to something so small as 7 ticks, and it be consistent. If you have, and can, my hat is off to you. But for me alot of the time it backs up on me soon after entry. I know that on a good day, I can get such and such a number of trades before I start getting stoped out. But in order to know if I'm right about every single one of those, I have to have a 15 tick stop. I often move it to much less. But their is no way of knowing what that next bar will do.

But all that said, sure, if I could find a way to reduce it and still end up "UP" I would. I have tried....anyways thanks for the post.

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  #12 (permalink)
SteveH
Orlando, Florida, USA
 
 
Posts: 34 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 96 received

Are you usually using buy / sell stop orders to enter?

 
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  #13 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Steve no I dont. Things can change so fast here. At one minute you think this, and the next it does something and all of a sudden a different direction looks more likely. So not I dont. Would be to slow. I've looked at it alot in the past, but just doesn't work for me.

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  #14 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Tuesday May 15 Plus 558 dollars after commisions.

So I feel good about what I did today. So far, and it's 10:47 as I write, it hasn't done much. Went to IB high, back to IB low, which is just fine by me, because I almost always get that. My last trades I traded more than 1 contract, and then added 1 more to it. I was so sure of this, as sure as anyone could be. Of course we all know that anything could happen. However being as it had tried and tried to go through the IB High, then volume steped in and drove it down, going to the IB Low was highly likely! Of course I didn't wait for it to get their to take profit, that would be insane. I was up, up for the day, I'm done. If it does more than this today, meing go outside the IB then so be it, their will be other days. Like tomorrow!

Oh just for kicks I also posted a chart on where "I think" prices will go eventually today, probable near the end of the day. To the IB high. I've seen this formation so much.

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  #15 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Wenesday May 16 plus 372 dollars 15 trades.

Yesterday I started using trendlines in my trading. I've never really been able to work trendlines into my trading because it seemed that either this indicator, or that would be saying just the opposite. But since I'm now really paying only close attention to "price action" and only using my indicators as a template, I can now "see" what I early couldn't. I guess that's what's happened. Trend lines do work. I can see that now. More than that they are used daily. They run to them, and bounce off of them.

I posted a 5 minute chart with all the lines I marked during the time I traded.

One more thing about trendlines. If prices start to rise, without a pull of any degree, then you must know that one is surely on it's way. If price has gone up, and you dont have atleast two points to mark for a trend line, then that second point will be made. That creates a trading opportunity for me. Either to fade to it, or buy off it.

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  #16 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Wed 16 2012

So I've done what I wanted to for the week. I lost 255 on Monday and made 500, then over 300 today. So that's just above my intended goal of 500 for the week. So that's it for this week. See you Monday. Again, I'm doing this so I do not become overwhealmed. It's so easy to sit here and try and trade every day, but it's never worked for me. I know that starting on Monday, it's going to atleast move this much, and I can get that.

Good luck to all.

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  #17 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,135 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,388 given, 1,726 received

Nice observation about the trend lines, thanks. Did you draw trend lines first on the 5 min then switch to the 150tick for trading?

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  #18 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Cloudy. Yes. I drew the most obvious ones. I used to get so twisted on this stuff. I mean you can find a trendline anywhere, and any timne right. What I have noticed though is this. That as prices goes up, and pulls back if that trendline created is greater than a 45 degree angle, then it will form another trendline. That is a lesser degree than a 45 degree angle. Does this make sense?

Also I want to add that if you watch the CL you know it's in a huge sell off. But right now as far as on a Daily chart it's still going down. It's not counced yet to form a trendline, so we dont know where it is yet. So That is why I'm looking for bounces to the upside more than the downside. Once it bounces on the Daily chart, then we will have another point to work with and draw a trendline

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  #19 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Christ, well today sucked. Lost 590 dollars. I was right on the direction, and where it ended up, but I was way to impatient. Try again tomorrow. Lost more than I wanted to also for any one day too. I'm not going to beat myself up, I've spent alot of time doing that. To think a person wouldn't make a mistake is crazy. I've even heard Trader71 talking about how he lost as much as a small car in a day before. So try again tomorrow.

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  #20 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
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Posts: 50,005 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,468 given, 98,288 received

Sorry you had a bad day.

But the real question is: Did you do everything correctly, and it just didn't work out? Or, did you make mistakes that you could have avoided?

Mike

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  #21 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Made mistakes! No Doubt.

May 22 2012 -270 dollars I stoped just because it wasn't working out and I felt poorly.

Well I was hoping today would be different. Started out that way. It's always that question, when to stop. When to stop. Hard to answer. I didn't when I woke felt poorly, because I basically always feel poorly. I have a condition called fibromyalgia. So having a cold, can get masked sorta of. Anyways, once I noticed that my mental attitude wasnt any good I quit. I feel "bad" all the time. But I take medicine, that makes me feel "mentally" better, which helps.

Yah I'm learning through this that I pretty much drift in my trading. I mean, it's so hard to do. I've never come across any stats, or found any of my own, that cause me to win in the end. What I have found is, "IF" and that's a big "IF" I do everything right, from point A to point B, I should come out ahead. Now doing what is "Right" for me means I have to mix in some discretion, and enter the "Devil" stage left lol.

Now that's a very difficult thing to do. Can be done, hard to do. So in an effort to not "drift" so much in my trading I'm going to make the following changes...............soon as I figure out what those changes should be............lol

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 Upupandaway 
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Ok I did nothing today on Wensday 23.

Last night I was messing with my computer trying to free up more space on my hard drive and messed something up. Resulted in me having to reinstall windows, and every other program I have. It's taken all day, and I'm still not done yet and it's 11:02 pm lol. Careful before you remove something....I hope to be up and running in the morning.

Having a hard time though finding a indicator that I downloaded from here. Anyways...

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  #23 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Sorry to hear that.

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 researcher247 
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What if you had your charting platform {Ninja} on another computer (laptop, etc...)?

If you just punched in your License Key and username & password on that other computer you are good to go, no?

peace

hedvig

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  #25 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Researcher, ya your right, that would work.

Ok so Wenesday my computer was down due to my error. I deleted something and ended up having to reinstall everything including windows. That forced me to not even look at a chart for one full day. Which was good. I thought alot about this and I know I make to many trades. So I'm going to refocus in on Pull Backs and BTMAT. Also I've gotten rid of my 60minute chart, and my Daily chart. In thinking about it, it only serves to confuse me, and cause me to hesitate, and to look for to much. Instead of just looking at one chart, and trading one chart. I kept up a 5minute chart, because like Mike, I think to that most trader use them, and therfore by that fact alone they care some weight, if not alot.

Also I kept the 5 minute chart up because I can visually see faster the entire day. If I just use the 150 tick chart I have to scroll and do all that, and you all know how ...well you understand. Also I'm going to just focus in on the IB too. So those three (IB, Pull Backs, BTMAT).

On the chart I posted you can see when the first hour was up by the white vertical doted line. When the first hour is up I mark the two yellow lines at the IB high and low. From that point on, I'm looking for trades to go "to it" or "from it" or "bounce" of it.

So those three core things. IB, BTMAT, PULL BACKS. No trendline drawing, not looking where it "might go" how far it "might go", just the target it the prior swing high. And if it runs really quickly through that, then I'll move my stop to break even plus one.

Now also something I want to tell you guys. I went back for 90 days on a five minute chart looking at the first swing high or low of the day. What I wanted to know was how often does price go throug that swing high to some good degree. In any one day, when prices approach a significant swing high or low, what should I expect? A "Bounce" or " further price defelopment" Well I did this on a spread sheet over 90 days and you have a "0.97" percent change that prices will continue through the swing high, and "not" return back to it. You have an average of 2 times during the day as well that prices will fall away form a 13EMA to a significant degree, and then retest it. This is only over 90 days that I did this. However I have looked back further and feel for me it's sufficent.

Five minute picture added to clarify.

I did real good today just focusing in on these things.

I will update my trading plan to reflect what I've talked about here. And much of it is not to far from what I got now. So shouldn't be much of an update.

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 Upupandaway 
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May 25 2012 -223 dollars 14 trades.

Well I overtraded first off. I can see now looking back what I did. From looking at yesterdays charts I see that on all of my trades basically, price gave me very little heat, and moved away fairly quickly. I'm sure lowering an fear in me. Today however that's not what happen. On every trade I took heat.

The First and Second trade are good. No problems with that. The fourth trade should of never happened. That was me saying "ok it's gonna keep going, and go how far it normally does under this situation". No pull back their. The fifth trade I took a loss on, but only because I got scared and was afraid to lose to much. Had I held, which is what I should of done, my stop wouldn't of been hit, and my target would of. Instead I took a loss, then decided I was right in the first place and got back in on the sixth trade. Which I won, but that's neither here nor their.

I mean I know that holding is something I have to do. I know alot it's going to come close to my stop, but that from what I've seen I should hold, till the next swing high, and often atleast 2 points beyond. So thats what I'll work on next week. Entering trades and staying till I'm either stoped out, or my target gets hit. Or it's painfully obvious thanks have changed drastically like prices crossing the white moving average. Also no over trading.

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  #27 (permalink)
 emini_Holy_Grail 
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can you post template of your chart. thks

 
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  #28 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Sure I would if I knew how to.

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  #29 (permalink)
 emini_Holy_Grail 
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np. right click on chart and save as "Template" and give a name.

then, you would find that in this folder
C:\Users\admin\Documents\NinjaTrader 7\templates\Chart

 
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 Upupandaway 
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Ok I'll do that grail.

Well I wanted to have up some new rules, well not new rules, but just refined rules. But I dont have it finished....and not sure when I will actually. I did trade today, and my objective was to just trade Pull Backs, and BTMAT'. Was hard this morning for me, very choppy, but kept going up. Anyways.....working on my rules still.

This morning pull backs didn't go over so well. I was thinking it would fall and should. But just kept going up. Then eventually it went to the IB LOW. So once it started to go that direction, alot of the times it does go their. So I added 1 contract on a pull back, and that was that. Got what I wanted to.

I'm disturbed by the fact that I can't come up with any rules to live by or die by. The best that I can do is to come up with a template of rules. That sometimes have to be broken, and sometimes followed. Then's its up to me to decided when those times are.

Working on it...

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 Upupandaway 
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my template

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 Upupandaway 
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I saved it again and reposted it. If you want though I'll tell you the indicators and the settings. This one might work better I loaded it differently.

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 Upupandaway 
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I'm a recovered alcoholic. I dont mind saying that, and I say it to make this point. I feel like I'm still doing that, when I do what I did today. I continued to do the same thing over and over again today expecting different results. I know not to do this, I know that! I do!! I do......! " Whats wrong with me" I ask myself. These are the same exact questions I'd ask myself when I kept drinking long past when it was obvious it was time to quit, stop...ENOUGH!

Getting to the point, where I did the right thing " not drink " regardless of the situation, took a long time. More relapses than I care to own up to. But I finally got it, now a long time ago. But doing what I did today feels exactly like that, and it is that! It's insane, it is......

I know I'll get their, just like I knew I'd finally quit drinking, and smoking for that matter. It was killing me, so I knew I'd have to quit at some point. Just like I know I have to quit doing this same "stupid #@##" over and over again. I think I might be trying to "out thinking" the market. Thinking three steps ahead. But I cant see, what I cant see, and I definetly cant "guess" at it. Which is what everyone of these trades are. A guess!

I'm only paper trading, and I've been doing that for a very long time. So here soon I'm going to trade live, real money. Find out where I'm at, what will I really do! Because I dont think sitting here paper trading anymore is going to tell me. I have great days, and then maybe I just "think" I got this, so let's try this....who knows...

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 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
I'm a recovered alcoholic. I dont mind saying that, and I say it to make this point. I feel like I'm still doing that, when I do what I did today. I continued to do the same thing over and over again today expecting different results. I know not to do this, I know that! I do!! I do......! " Whats wrong with me" I ask myself. These are the same exact questions I'd ask myself when I kept drinking long past when it was obvious it was time to quit, stop...ENOUGH!

Getting to the point, where I did the right thing " not drink " regardless of the situation, took a long time. More relapses than I care to own up to. But I finally got it, now a long time ago. But doing what I did today feels exactly like that, and it is that! It's insane, it is......

I know I'll get their, just like I knew I'd finally quit drinking, and smoking for that matter. It was killing me, so I knew I'd have to quit at some point. Just like I know I have to quit doing this same "stupid #@##" over and over again. I think I might be trying to "out thinking" the market. Thinking three steps ahead. But I cant see, what I cant see, and I definetly cant "guess" at it. Which is what everyone of these trades are. A guess!

I'm only paper trading, and I've been doing that for a very long time. So here soon I'm going to trade live, real money. Find out where I'm at, what will I really do! Because I dont think sitting here paper trading anymore is going to tell me. I have great days, and then maybe I just "think" I got this, so let's try this....who knows...



My chart from today....straight trend very obvious on the higher time frame....just saying


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Upupandaway 
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Panda...man...that is the same exact question I'm asking myself. Yah, your absolutely right, so obvious....was down all day. I dont know why......I keep asking myself that.

Well this morning I had the below trendline drawn in on my 5 minute chart. Ya know I guess it's because "I thought" that it should bounce. It's been selling off for a while now, and I thought it should bounce, to a considerable degree. So I guess the error is in that I "think"? I "think" ...."thinking"...is the problem....for me. Thinking it's going to do "something" that is the problem for me...maybe.

...I got posted notes, three of them taped to my computer, "read your directions, dont take trades against the white MA at all costs!" So here was todays chart, only 1 trade did I do as I was supposed to do....<shaking head> huh....that's just no good....

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 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
Panda...man...that is the same exact question I'm asking myself. Yah, your absolutely right, so obvious....was down all day. I dont know why......I keep asking myself that.

Well this morning I had the below trendline drawn in on my 5 minute chart. Ya know I guess it's because "I thought" that it should bounce. It's been selling off for a while now, and I thought it should bounce, to a considerable degree. So I guess the error is in that I "think"? I "think" ...."thinking"...is the problem....for me. Thinking it's going to do "something" that is the problem for me...maybe.

...I got posted notes, three of them taped to my computer, "read your directions, dont take trades against the white MA at all costs!" So here was todays chart, only 1 trade did I do as I was supposed to do....<shaking head> huh....that's just no good....

Ok, I am no expert and by no means am I telling you how to trade, but the counter trend stuff is deadly unless you're really good at it....and if you cant see the trend trades, I made some notations on your chart....just ideas really...

One other idea, not sure if you watch the five min chart primarily and then go to the 150tick to trade or if you watch the tick chart primarily but it seems to me it might be really easy to get sucked into the tick chart vortex since that's where the action is but the trend is really on the 5M.....

Ok, I'm done preaching now.....lord knows I don't always practice what I preach.....




Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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iTrade2golf
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Take what I am saying as constructive criticism in an effort to help you focus on certain aspects.

I read your posts and I can say to you that most traders that struggle are doing exactly what you are doing.

You have changed your rules often and then you don't follow them. You inject your thoughts into the market, when you should be letting the market point you in the direction that price is moving.

Your thinking is monetary and not execution based. Judge your trading days on the exact execution of your rules. The money will follow the traders who execute their system with precision and discipline. My wife knows I have one cardinal rule for her and that is not to ask me how much I have made while I am trading. She knows I will tell her after I have completed my last trade for that day. And frankly she hardly ever asks any more, she just trusts that I will take care of things and if I have a record day for myself I will tell her.

You need to get a "DIRECTIONAL BIAS" and never trade against it for no reason. The fear of price reversing and leaving you behind is why people are afraid to only trade a market in one direction. This will also help you NOT OVER TRADE.

Another reason people can't trade with a bias is that they are trying to inject their thoughts into the market ie. "I think" that it's about to bounce here or one of my all time favorite "it looks top heavy". This comes from people not having a defined entry point and then them jumping into a market after it has moved up significantly just before the market turns for a correction or pullback. After this happening to them many times they get so afraid to trade a market moving up or down and constantly trying to pick the reversal level. To get slaughtered on a strong trend day when veteran traders are making big profits that help secure their week.

Got to get in bed now. I will continue this later when I get time.

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 Upupandaway 
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Thanks to ITrade2golf and Panda. Yall are talking about things I've been thinking about this weekend, in trying to figure out my malfunction. And I agree with everything you both said. Your right I do sometimes get lost between the 5 minute and the 150 chart. But I agree that the main trend is on the the 5 minute, so I will on Monday keep that in my mind with a renewed focus. As well as the break downs, for entry points.

So thanks for the posts, these two have been very in sightful. It's nice to know how a person who is succeeding at trading "thinks". So alot of my "thinking" is not of the mark, and I shouldn't have anymore conffusion on what I need to do.

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  #39 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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I'll pick my journal back up again on Monday

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 Upupandaway 
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Ok...now this is much better.

8 trades plus 463 dollars. I did good. I didn't do anything different...well..thats not true. I did what I was supposed to do, not what I wasn't. I credit that to comments made by other members. Notable the last couple of posts by tradetogolf, and panda. That helped me center myself again "mentally". I'll write more later tonight, but for today I'm done.

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 Upupandaway 
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I'm sitting here looking at my 150 tick chart and it looks like it's changed, but hasn't. The only thing that is a little different was I set the MASlopeMulit indicator to show the 100MA. Anyways. I was really please with myself today and how I traded. I didn't get lost...."Where is it going, will it get their....and on and on". I just focused on whether or not what I was looking at was a trade setup. I also realized that I enter to much, previously. Why I do that I think now is because I dont want to have to wait for the next signal. What if it the next one is a loss? Might be, could be....so I believe I'm trying to control the market in that way, buy "coming" up with trades on the fly. Which is just deadly.

Also like I said before, that the comments trade2golf, and panda made really helped. I've never thought about a trade in the manner of it "breaking down" like panda said. I mean, that made it really easy to see, and easier to make a decision about if to, or not to trade.

I'm still using MP. I actually just got it all down loaded again and set up. I noticed something about that to, that wasn't good. I tend to see price here at point "A" and see that this other point "B" maybe the POC of yesterday, or the high, or whichever and trade based off of that. I mean actually pull the trigger off of where I think it might be 6 points from where it is now. That has nothing to do with MP, and everything to do with me. So I guess the end off all these is it was "ME"! I was what was wrong with my trading.

I hope to carry this momentum on to tomorrow and the next, till I can make a habit of this. Because right now I still very much have to consciously think about what I'm doing, and if it's "right".

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 PandaWarrior 
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Ok...now this is much better.

8 trades plus 463 dollars. I did good. I didn't do anything different...well..thats not true. I did what I was supposed to do, not what I wasn't. I credit that to comments made by other members. Notable the last couple of posts by tradetogolf, and panda. That helped me center myself again "mentally". I'll write more later tonight, but for today I'm done.



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 indextrader7 
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Nice improvement there upupandaway! Keep working hard, you're on your way up....

Are you keeping up with trade statistics such as your average size winning trade to average size losing trade? If not, it might be something to take a look at.

-IT7

 
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  #44 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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PandaWarrior

Well on the first two you pointed out the "MACD" had just crossed the zero line. The problem I had with it was the two lines "red and blue"had not yet crossed themselves "above" the zero line yet, and I know in most cases that is what occurs. And of course just the opposite for the second trade you pointed out.

As for the third trade you pointed out, price had tried twice to go lower and couldn't, or didn't, whichever. So when your trade came up their I hesitated and missed it. Of course you can see I tried entering right at the low, looked like it might go to IB low, but didn't. So that was a mistake I see now. So that's it, thanks for asking.

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 Upupandaway 
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Indextrader

No...basically...thats the simplest answer. I do know though that starting on Monday, their will be enough "good" pull backs in a week for me to make 500 bucks. And almost always their is a day or multiple days when you can make 500 or alot more. But now maybe I can start keeping some sorta of stats that I'm trading more clear headed

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 PandaWarrior 
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PandaWarrior

Well on the first two you pointed out the "MACD" had just crossed the zero line. The problem I had with it was the two lines "red and blue"had not yet crossed themselves "above" the zero line yet, and I know in most cases that is what occurs. And of course just the opposite for the second trade you pointed out.

As for the third trade you pointed out, price had tried twice to go lower and couldn't, or didn't, whichever. So when your trade came up their I hesitated and missed it. Of course you can see I tried entering right at the low, looked like it might go to IB low, but didn't. So that was a mistake I see now. So that's it, thanks for asking.

And is a MACD necessary to your method? Or is price action enough seeing how the MACD is a lagging indicator? Just probing here....trying to make sure the thought process required to take a trade is not to complicated. The reason I bring it up is this.

You have a moving average system which by definition is both trend following and lagging. The MACD is both trend following and lagging. I am not sure you need a lagging indicator filtering a lagging indicator. Your thoughts?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Upupandaway 
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Well I'm not using the MACD to filter out the MA's. I'm using it to help me time entry's.

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iTrade2golf
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Upupandaway View Post
Well I'm not using the MACD to filter out the MA's. I'm using it to help me time entry's.

Well congratulations on your recent revelations. I am glad I could help, and will continue to help as long as you need.

I would ask that you DEFINE EXACTLY your Setups, Signal, Entry, Exits and Risk Management. I am not sure of them as this thread progressed you changed somewhat. A TRADER NEVER enters a trade that is not defined in their system.

I am a little fuzzy about your current methods within your system. I am not here to analyze whether your system is correct, only that you have a complete system and will be disciplined with entries and exits and you have the correct mental approach to trading.

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 Upupandaway 
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Well today was bad. I was thinking about some of the trades "panda" pointed out that I missed. So when I "thought" I saw one this morning I jumped on it. That went well so I tried it again. And of course this ended up with me getting lost, "mentally" because I wasn't trading my "plan" and having a disaster lol.

Anyways...I screwed up more than half the entries anyhow. I was jumping on anything I thought was an etnry, or close to it. Whatever...back to what I did on Monday, for Wenesday.


Trade2golf, I've attempted to "define" entries precisely as I can, and it's in my orginal plan, and I admit some of those precise rules are in my head. Like in Buying or Selling at the open "sufficient momentum" to me means that the 50EMA is the right color for your intended direction. And your right, I have modifided some rules on the fly, to meet what I thought was going to happen. That's been a grave mistake. Tomorrow I'll get back to trading whats in my plan as I understand, but if something needs more clarification, point it out, and I'll do that. Thanks

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 Upupandaway 
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Oh...I'd be interested in seeing what a precise entry rules look like. Or has in it. I mean I'm not a sucessful trader. Would you be so inclined as to tell me your precise entries for say a "long" setup? That would be most informative, and teach alot of people I think, specially me lol.

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iTrade2golf
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Upupandaway View Post
Well today was bad. I was thinking about some of the trades "panda" pointed out that I missed. So when I "thought" I saw one this morning I jumped on it. That went well so I tried it again. And of course this ended up with me getting lost, "mentally" because I wasn't trading my "plan" and having a disaster lol.

Anyways...I screwed up more than half the entries anyhow. I was jumping on anything I thought was an etnry, or close to it. Whatever...back to what I did on Monday, for Wenesday.


Trade2golf, I've attempted to "define" entries precisely as I can, and it's in my orginal plan, and I admit some of those precise rules are in my head. Like in Buying or Selling at the open "sufficient momentum" to me means that the 50EMA is the right color for your intended direction. And your right, I have modifided some rules on the fly, to meet what I thought was going to happen. That's been a grave mistake. Tomorrow I'll get back to trading whats in my plan as I understand, but if something needs more clarification, point it out, and I'll do that. Thanks

You are digressing and starting to inject your thoughts into the market again. You are also letting other people influence your trading. I am not saying panda had a bad entry method, I am saying that it was not in your system, you had not did the proper due diligence of research and backtesting before trying to put a new method into your system. You are trying to jump ahead to quickly. You need to slow down and get YOUR methods defined EXACTLY, and never trade a method without the due diligence. This brings me to the point that trading is more the trader than the system. You MUST work on your mental flaws that allow you to make those big mistakes.


Upupandaway View Post
Oh...I'd be interested in seeing what a precise entry rules look like. Or has in it. I mean I'm not a sucessful trader. Would you be so inclined as to tell me your precise entries for say a "long" setup? That would be most informative, and teach alot of people I think, specially me lol.

I will not put my trading methods out into the public because this is how I support my family, sorry. And I will not come up with a generic method to throw out that I have not done the research, back testing and forward test.

I will however help you focus on defining your methods for yourself by asking questions that will get you to hopefully focus on the proper aspects of your system. I will keep pushing you to work on the psychology of trading to include first learning all you can learn about your own personality. Believe me when I tell you that the big boys know themselves inside and out, and that gives them the edge they need. It is not some holy grail of trading they posses.

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 Upupandaway 
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Yaup...yaup...yaup..I agree with all you said Itrade2golf.. Nothing else to say, your right....thanks. Pick up my "plan" again tomorrow.

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 Private Banker 
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PandaWarrior View Post
And is a MACD necessary to your method? Or is price action enough seeing how the MACD is a lagging indicator? Just probing here....trying to make sure the thought process required to take a trade is not to complicated. The reason I bring it up is this.

You have a moving average system which by definition is both trend following and lagging. The MACD is both trend following and lagging. I am not sure you need a lagging indicator filtering a lagging indicator. Your thoughts?

This may come as a surprise to many but "Price Action" is also a lagging way to trade. A trade entry should come from a predetermined area that has been researched before price has even come to it. Those that are trading the price action are in fact trading from a reactionary perspective to those that are moving the markets.

The MACD is a lagging indicator but like any other indicator, it should be used as a confirmation tool once already in a position. There are other ways to use it however such as a directional bias, etc. The MACD is no better or worse than anything else out there. I've looked at and used the MACD for over 14 years and can say there are certain uses for it but to depend on it as a sole reason for a trade entry is not the best idea. Again, taking trades from a predetermined area is a smarter approach.

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 Upupandaway 
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Privte banker I'd agree with that for sure.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Private Banker View Post
This may come as a surprise to many but "Price Action" is also a lagging way to trade. A trade entry should come from a predetermined area that has been researched before price has even come to it. Those that are trading the price action are in fact trading from a reactionary perspective to those that are moving the markets.

Of the lagging indicators, its the least lagging...but I agree with this statement. As most traders are looking for confirmation, price action alone is the closest most will come to "early" confirmation.

Confirmation can come in several ways. Confirming price action with no indicators, confirming price action with indicators and then indicators alone....indicators being the last in line for confirmation. That being said, used properly, they can be of a great help. My purpose in asking the pointed question was to make sure the OP really understood what the MACD was or was not doing for him.....and I remain unconvinced that using it for timing an entry is the best use of the MACD.

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 Upupandaway 
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UpUpUp and away today A? lol.

Ok I had 14 trades plus 616 dollars it's 10:43 looks like thats it. Anyways I just concentrated on what I "understand" to be true. My rules, and my model for trading the CL. What I've seen, again and again. So that would be my week right here today, and if I was trading real money I'd stop today.

I'll trade tomorrow and Friday, for practice. And if I get to trading real money, what I'll do is once I hit my target for the week, then I'll paper trade the rest of the week.

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 Tradelog 
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Hi Upup,

Great thread!

Just a thought on the above and is only a reflection not necessarily a correct view

If you switch to papermoney after reaching some profits on the live account.....will you be taking more aggressive trades with the paper money? Will the switch from one to another not confuse you psychologically? If you do the same setups and you end up with winners on paper money but loosers on the live account will that not throw you off track?

The above approach did not work for me trading forex. I either go live with a setup on live account or I stay with paper money practicing the setup but I can not/do not mix them.....again just thoughts to consider.

Best
TL

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 Upupandaway 
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Yah I understand your thought process their. Makes sense. However what I do doesn't work all week. I know though that I can get ahead, and then if I quit...and go to next week, I can stay ahead. So even if I'm paper trading, after trading real money, it wont effect me. And perhaps your right, maybe I will take it more casual or aggresive when paper trading. But it wont matter to me. I get overwhealmed when trying to trade all week.

I start thinking about all sorts of things. I get to close to it, zoom in to much, make alot of mistakes then give back everything I made previously. In my thought process I'm viewing this as a paycheck. Now yes it would be great to have a systemt that gave me "x" amount of signals, and if I just take them at weeks end I'm ahead. My stops got hit, my targets taken out..everything is great. And I suppose for someone who has statistics for their trades thats how it is. That's not what I have. I have not figured out how to imput all the variables that can go into a single trade. Their can be so much more in it, than if all your rules are meet.

What I have is this. What I do, starting on Monday, get's me ahead by 500 dollars, at some point, before it fails. Often it gets alot more than that. I use to have that number set at 1000, but pushed it back. I saw that was to mentally difficult to try and reach. But 500, in my mind, eh that's easy...I can do that. All this is based off of keeping me away from the monitor, and sane. Let's go into to the next week, and do the same thing. Cause if I can do that, then it's just a matter of trading more contracts. But I know...I know, I can't trade a week. Not Live. So that's probable a little longer of an explination than you expected, but their it is none the less.

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 Tradelog 
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Upupandaway View Post
Yah I understand your thought process their. Makes sense. However what I do doesn't work all week. I know though that I can get ahead, and then if I quit...and go to next week, I can stay ahead. So even if I'm paper trading, after trading real money, it wont effect me. And perhaps your right, maybe I will take it more casual or aggresive when paper trading. But it wont matter to me. I get overwhealmed when trying to trade all week.

I start thinking about all sorts of things. I get to close to it, zoom in to much, make alot of mistakes then give back everything I made previously. In my thought process I'm viewing this as a paycheck. Now yes it would be great to have a systemt that gave me "x" amount of signals, and if I just take them at weeks end I'm ahead. My stops got hit, my targets taken out..everything is great. And I suppose for someone who has statistics for their trades thats how it is. That's not what I have. I have not figured out how to imput all the variables that can go into a single trade. Their can be so much more in it, than if all your rules are meet.

What I have is this. What I do, starting on Monday, get's me ahead by 500 dollars, at some point, before it fails. Often it gets alot more than that. I use to have that number set at 1000, but pushed it back. I saw that was to mentally difficult to try and reach. But 500, in my mind, eh that's easy...I can do that. All this is based off of keeping me away from the monitor, and sane. Let's go into to the next week, and do the same thing. Cause if I can do that, then it's just a matter of trading more contracts. But I know...I know, I can't trade a week. Not Live. So that's probable a little longer of an explination than you expected, but their it is none the less.

OK Understand. As long as it works for you and the switch does not throw you off balance it is all good!

Best

TL

 
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iTrade2golf
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Upupandaway View Post
UpUpUp and away today A? lol.

Ok I had 14 trades plus 616 dollars it's 10:43 looks like thats it. Anyways I just concentrated on what I "understand" to be true. My rules, and my model for trading the CL. What I've seen, again and again. So that would be my week right here today, and if I was trading real money I'd stop today.

I'll trade tomorrow and Friday, for practice. And if I get to trading real money, what I'll do is once I hit my target for the week, then I'll paper trade the rest of the week.

Nice trading day. Did you only take longs on these charts. It was going up so making long money should have been your concentration.

Also I am seeing larger losses than winners often. I am wondering if you risk management is steady. Why do you have 10, 20, 60 profit and 110, 120, 160 losers. Were any of these loses from trying to trade a reversal against the strong up trend that was screaming from the chart.

Then when it got choppy, you MA's were intertwined and suggested no defined direction. At that point you could sit on your hands or if you have a method for a trading market instead of a trending market you could switch to that method.

Good Job!!!

 
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 emini_Holy_Grail 
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iTrade2Golf
""At that point you could sit on your hands or if you have a method for a trading market instead of a trending market you could switch to that method.""

could you pl explain what is " trading market" . did you mean to say range bound

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iTrade2golf
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emini_Holy_Grail View Post
iTrade2Golf
""At that point you could sit on your hands or if you have a method for a trading market instead of a trending market you could switch to that method.""

could you pl explain what is " trading market" . did you mean to say range bound

No I did not mean to say range bound market. But it is the same as a range bound market. To get technical all markets are range bound, a trending market makes a larger range. If you say Range bound I would know what you mean. I myself say range bound or choppy sometimes also.


In a trading market you would buy and sell more often because of the price fluctuations. In a trending market you would buy/sell and hold with the trend.

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 Upupandaway 
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This trade happen today Wensday the 6 2012. However I was already done for the day. Couldn't sleep though, so I was sitting here watching it break down. So just as a "what" if, which wouldn't of been had it been real money, but for the sake of practice I took it.

This is exactly why "I" personally find trading so difficult. It's everything you have to sit through to get to your target. If you trade more than 1 contract, and say take 80 then set the other too break even plus 1, well you made 90 dollars. Then you get to watch it continue on down and hit your swing low target. Which is what it did.

No point to anyone here but myself. I really really have to be mentally ready for this. Cause this is what it is.

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 Upupandaway 
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I wrote the above post Itrade2golf, before I knew you had written your last one. Well the one conerning my trades today. I think the above post of mine answers it pretty good. But I'll explain some of those in detail and what I thought.

The last trades today where a bounce off of the 5 minute charts moving average. I wasn't concerned with MA's on the 150 tick chart at that point and time. The short trades near the top of the day where good. Could of been different, wasn't. But that thing had torn up so much in the first hour. Once the IB was in, well it was a "wide IB" so either it was going to be a trend day, or stop right their and bounce back to the MA on the 150 tick chart. That is what I was trying to take advantage of. Thanks for the posts

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iTrade2golf
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I look at your 150Tick chart and it gets me nervous from all the noise! I have attached your 150Tick chart with one of my scripts running on top of it with your MACD and moving averages that I think you use if I can remember right. I have also added my ES and CL chart with the time frames I trade each market on with one of my scripts running on it and your MACD and MA's.

Which do you think is easier to trade on a daily basis and be successful. I trade this way everyday and never get stressed out or tired. I have my scripts give visual cues and also a .wav file is played announcing a Long or Short setup in case I am away from the PC or watching a movie with my wife. I do not have to live and die with every tick. The MA's and MACD are only added because that is what you use I do not use them myself in my system, but I think it will be more familiar to you if I added them.


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 Private Banker 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Of the lagging indicators, its the least lagging...but I agree with this statement. As most traders are looking for confirmation, price action alone is the closest most will come to "early" confirmation.

Confirmation can come in several ways. Confirming price action with no indicators, confirming price action with indicators and then indicators alone....indicators being the last in line for confirmation. That being said, used properly, they can be of a great help. My purpose in asking the pointed question was to make sure the OP really understood what the MACD was or was not doing for him.....and I remain unconvinced that using it for timing an entry is the best use of the MACD.

That's a great point. BTW, my comment wasn't directed at your post but more of an overview type statement. When looking at the significance of tools to be used within trading, it's almost the chicken vs. the egg scenario. Does volume come before a price level or vice versa? Is price action a derivative from the market overall perception of price at it's current level? Or is volume pushing the market?

I'm of the opinion that moving price is simply a result of the most recent perception that a dominant party was able to cut off it's move in one direction. The key is identifying areas where dominant parties would be interested in taking a position to push the market in a certain direction. So, once a price level is determined, the reactionary volume comes in which then can play into price action traders. Don't get me wrong, trading PA is a perfectly acceptable way to trade. It can however, limit your overall profitability vs. a trader who only inititates a few trader per day.

Cheers,
PB

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 Upupandaway 
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15 trades plus 551 dollars.

Little tricky today huh? Opened way up, only to come back down. Just goes to show you, you cant just decide "oh, it's gonna be this today" One trade near the end their I lost way more than I would want to. Door bell rang, was the pool guy. So I got up to answer it. I'll put a note on my door, take care of that. All of this today was great. Good practice, but I wouldn't of traded today for real anyways. I got a "picture taking program" so I can show me results now too.

After the IB was in, and it started to go down, it became pretty easy to see where it could go to. Right now looks like it just will trend the rest of the day down. Anywyas...

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 Upupandaway 
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ITrade2golf

I dont get it. I looked at the pictures you posted. I dont see your "script". What does that mean your script? On the 15 range chart are those your entries, and the entry price?

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 Upupandaway 
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Private trader. I agree with you. But dang, you gotta know where those areas are. I dont know how you can know about something that a person is going to do, before they do it? Like the dominate players. How can you know what they are going to do before they do it and you see the reaction to it? Just saying.....

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iTrade2golf
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Upupandaway View Post
ITrade2golf

I dont get it. I looked at the pictures you posted. I dont see your "script". What does that mean your script?

I just noticed I posted a chart of the 150 Tick from the wrong trading time. I now posted one from the NY open.

The point had nothing to do with knowing my script. It has to do with time frames that are too noisy and can make it more difficult to trade.

A larger time frame can present fewer trades and achieve higher profits.

Yes those are setup markers that are drawn and the price is drawn giving me the close of the bar that presented a setup bar.


 
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 PandaWarrior 
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Private Banker View Post
That's a great point. BTW, my comment wasn't directed at your post but more of an overview type statement. When looking at the significance of tools to be used within trading, it's almost the chicken vs. the egg scenario. Does volume come before a price level or vice versa? Is price action a derivative from the market overall perception of price at it's current level? Or is volume pushing the market?

I'm of the opinion that moving price is simply a result of the most recent perception that a dominant party was able to cut off it's move in one direction. The key is identifying areas where dominant parties would be interested in taking a position to push the market in a certain direction. So, once a price level is determined, the reactionary volume comes in which then can play into price action traders. Don't get me wrong, trading PA is a perfectly acceptable way to trade. It can however, limit your overall profitability vs. a trader who only inititates a few trader per day.

Cheers,
PB

I know it wasnt directed at me, but you made an excellent point about price action being lagging and i hadnt thought of it that way before...it occured to me it was the least lagging of the lagging indicators though....just be aware of what you are actually trading....price action lagging levels.....its ok, just be aware.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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iTrade2golf
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Upupandaway View Post
ITrade2golf
What does that mean your script?

My script is a program written in the ESPL that calculates my setup methods within my system and when one of the conditions are true it signals me.

ESPL is the language that my charting software uses for writing scripts.

 
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 Upupandaway 
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ITrade2Golf

Ok...but the 15 range chart you posted, those arrows and entries, are those yours? And the last chart you posted. Are all of those entries on the chart entries you take?

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iTrade2golf
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ITrade2Golf

Ok...but the 15 range chart you posted, those arrows and entries, are those yours? And the last chart you posted. Are all of those entries on the chart entries you take?


the 15 range chart you posted, those arrows and entries, are those yours?

Yes those are arrows that are automatically placed on the chart by my script to get my attention if a condition within my trading system is true. I did not put the arrows on my charts manually.


And the last chart you posted. Are all of those entries on the chart entries you take?

No, those are not entries, those are conditional arrows that signal a true condition within my system. I stripped the rest of the script out and just wanted you to see the difference between a very noisy chart and a chart with a higher time frame that is smoother and more manageable so you do not have to live and die with every tick.

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 Upupandaway 
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ITrade2Golf

Ok I understand showing me the 15range chart. I get that. I'm still not clear on post #70, the picture of the 150 tick chart with your script on it, or some of it. I mean it's a 150 tick chart, that's what I use, so it's not different...so..what is the point? Sorry I just dont understand showing me a picture of a chart I use, with your script on it.

When I look at that picture in post #70 all I see is a 150tick chart, and alot of arrows. I dont see anything different their than what I do. Could you explain better. Thanks for your posts

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iTrade2golf
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ITrade2Golf

Ok I understand showing me the 15range chart. I get that. I'm still not clear on post #70, the picture of the 150 tick chart with your script on it, or some of it. I mean it's a 150 tick chart, that's what I use, so it's not different...so..what is the point? Sorry I just dont understand showing me a picture of a chart I use, with your script on it.

When I look at that picture in post #70 all I see is a 150tick chart, and alot of arrows. I dont see anything different their than what I do. Could you explain better. Thanks for your posts

I am saying that you are trying to trade a very fast chart and you are having to use bad risk management to accomplish. This is from using a chart that is too fast. You are having to have stops that are larger than you profit targets.

You also stated that you get so overwhelmed that you can't trade everyday. I was trying to introduce a larger time frame as a first step to help you with these problems that I noticed.

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 Private Banker 
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Upupandaway View Post
Private trader. I agree with you. But dang, you gotta know where those areas are. I dont know how you can know about something that a person is going to do, before they do it? Like the dominate players. How can you know what they are going to do before they do it and you see the reaction to it? Just saying.....

Private trader? Hmmm, that sounds like an interesting name, lol! Anyway, These levels are derived from my own research which is mainly from Market Profile structure. Maybe read a few books on it if you're interested in learning more. It's up to you of course. Would you rather walk in to each trading day with a game plan or would you rather just trade off a reactionary system?

Cheers,
PB

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 Upupandaway 
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Private Banker...sorry about mixing your name up

Well I do walk in with a game plan. I have looked at MP alot. I've listened to FutureTraders71 webinars, and even paid for them that he also offers. That guy is a wealth of knowledge, I like him. Seems like a good dood. I aslo have up Gomis MP indicator too. I have not been able to find any pattern in market profile. Also I have found that these areas dont hold up alot. Not from day to day. Their isn't any consistency in them. I think reacting to something being done is how we all trade. Even if your placing an order prior to price getting their, your placement of the order is your reaction to what you think will happen once it get's their.

I added a picture see what you think

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 Cloudy 
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Hi Upupandaway, as a newcomer to MP and VP I also looked at and paid for FT71's webinars. As just a newbie, I came away with some ideas and some from other futures.io (formerly BMT) posts. One way I found it helpful are formation of s/r lines. If you extend the vpocs all the way to the right for say the week's worth of vpocs there are some s/r levels where it's likely price might stay around more or gravitate too. (Even at the least, yesterday's VPOC level drawn on the current chart can be helpful). As for a daily volume profile as FT71 said price tends to stay longer at those HighValueNodes as acceptance areas and gloss over or don't stay too long at LowValueNodes. I didn't see he mentioned entries either so I just assume one would have to use their own entry system whether it's PA or some indicator/oscillator system with VP vpocs and node levels as s/r or areas that help confirm a new entry or targets or possible highs or lows of the day. I've noticed some third party daily s/r level vendors such as https://jsservices.trade/ or ToTheTick | Support and Resistance Trading, Zones for Day Traders mention they use some historical analysis which "includes volume profile"; of course their methods are still black box , so they can have something to sell.

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 Private Banker 
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Upupandaway View Post
Private Banker...sorry about mixing your name up

Well I do walk in with a game plan. I have looked at MP alot. I've listened to FutureTraders71 webinars, and even paid for them that he also offers. That guy is a wealth of knowledge, I like him. Seems like a good dood. I aslo have up Gomis MP indicator too. I have not been able to find any pattern in market profile. Also I have found that these areas dont hold up alot. Not from day to day. Their isn't any consistency in them. I think reacting to something being done is how we all trade. Even if your placing an order prior to price getting their, your placement of the order is your reaction to what you think will happen once it get's their.

I added a picture see what you think

No worries! i was just joking around there.

Let me explain something here. There's a difference between Market Profile (TPO) and a Volume Profile. The concept is fairly similar and I use each but in different ways.

Market Profile (Time Price Opportinity) is the letter based profile that organizes price with the time spent at each level.



Volume Profile is the volume traded at each level.



Both are very important but for big picture structure, I lean on the TPO. You can get the same thing from either but the market tends to respect the TPO levels more in my opinion.

I realize many are following the volume profiling method but personally, I simply don't use volume profiles to find trade location. I'm not going to go over how I use all of this but my point is to clarify that there is a difference between the two in the way to use them. Again, this is just my opinion of course.

So, the Gom MP indicator is really a Volume profile indicator not a TPO. Also, don't look at a small chart interval to find the important levels to trade from. Look at the big picture. Take a look at the two charts above and tell me if there was an area that made the most sense to trade from today.

Cheers,
PB

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 Upupandaway 
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I do not see from your charts where would of been a good place to get long, or short...or play a bounce. Maybe I just dont see it, obviously. I've posted what I do personally see though. In that first 5 minute chart with the profile I'm only showing that so you know where I got the red lines from on the second 5 minute picture, which you should look at now.

When I first learned about MP, seeing the VPOC was something I saw right away. Today on the CL all three of these where hit. I suppose if a person was so inclined and had long signals like I did this morning, you could trade to it. So for me its an area, but only that. The width and breath of the entire MP area is just to much. But a number, a "point" to shoot for, I can handle that. But if it's just well....ehh...somewhere in this area....umm...that only spells big loss's for me lol.

Anyways...I kinda like what FturesTrader71 one said. He said, "Whatever it is, you gotta know it, and it's gotta speak to you" But I know it has it's place, enough to respect what I think are the major parts of it. Like VPOC. Also the IB is huge for me. That is something concreate that happens everday. Their is not a day when the first hour is up, and you cant draw the high and low. Knowing that the big boys use that is invaluable I think. Als the "Day Types". I can with a large extent at a certain point tell what type of day type it "might be". Well that's like telling the future right? Right. Also I think FutureTrader71 make a very clear point, when he said " Remeber that, it's important" and he was refering to a "Normal Variation" day type. Which you have a 48% chance of happening, now that is something you can sink your teeth into I think. And as it where, that is the type of day it was today "Normal Variation"

All this said, I'm saying nothing bad about you, or anything you have said. I consider it all valuable to me, and thank you for posting here. It's much appreciated...it is..

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 Upupandaway 
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Itrade2golf

I thank you, that is a good thing to of done. I have looked at range charts, and this is what I dont like about it. I cant see what's going on. I dont like that. Regardless if it stress's me out or not, I dont not like, being able to see what's happening. That said I understand what your saying. It would be better I'm sure. But you have a script you have written to trade. I know nothing about that. And alot of my stress is not from the up and down movement of a chart, (because you get that on range charts too) but from excuting my trades bad, then trying to ride it out.


One question I'd like to know though, what is your risk per trade? And do you trade the CL, I'm assuming, but you mat not. Thanks

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iTrade2golf
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Upupandaway View Post
Itrade2golf

One question I'd like to know though, what is your risk per trade? And do you trade the CL, I'm assuming, but you mat not. Thanks

My risk per each trade is 3% initially as a critical stop in case I lose connectivity. I will close a position out sooner if I am wrong on the direction at that particular time. I know to close a position if it I am wrong on direction at that time, or if I am right on direction but the timing is not correct. I have closed out positions for a smaller lose and then entered the next trade not soon after and it turned into a very good trade. I have no problem exiting a trade with a lose and saving my capitol for the next trade, since I let my winners run and cut my loses I am able to take the next setup just as comfortably as the previous. I have had 4 losing trades in a row to start a trading day and then the fifth trade I closed it out to get in the black. I let my winners run until I get a certain condition to close it. I NEVER set profit targets. This allows me to get big winners like this many times a week.

Yes I do trade CL along with many other markets. My trading associates and I monitor all markets and call out to each other if we notice a market that has given a signal as a trending market, these are the markets that make the big bucks for the week. I was taught many years ago to find a market that is trending and trade it . I never stay on one market every day. I disagree with people that tell others to learn to trade one market. If you have a sound system based on good methods and risk management, then you just need a trending market. For instance think of the last trading day you had in CL where you traded with the trend and the market went up or down most of the day and you thought that trading was so much easier on that day. That is if you were simply trading with the trend. Well if you find a market that is trending 4 out of 5 days whether it be CL, GC, ES, TF, 6E.....then trading becomes easier to just enter in the direction of the trend and let your winners ride.

I do trade markets that are trading markets and when I do this I use my scalping methods, however these require more entries and exits and therefor more chance for mistakes.

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 Upupandaway 
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Ok so 3%. How do I explain what I'm thinking. Is your stop placement have anything to do with, a point, a number? Or is it just 3% from where every you enter, not matter where you enter? I mean...does this make sense...just 3 percent from where ever? Not like swing low, 15 ticks back...have you looked at where your entry is from, and said "Ok if it goes past here, I'd be out"?

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 Private Banker 
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Upupandaway View Post
I do not see from your charts where would of been a good place to get long, or short...or play a bounce. Maybe I just dont see it, obviously.

No problem, here's what I was looking at yesterday.

First on the big picture daily, the market was set to open at the bottom of the current balance/bracket area. So that was clue number one. We were opening in support.



Then, when looking at the Market Profile TPO chart, you can see there was significant rejection tails out of this area on several other occasions, clue number two.



Based on that criteria, establishing a long position at the open made perfect sense. You then would need to find your entry. By looking at the overnight Market Profile TPO's, you can see we were opening at the value area low and point of control, great levels to lean on there. Also, looking at the overnight volume profile, you can see we were opening on the VPOC as well. Again, a great level to lean on.





From that point on, either establishing new or adding to your current long position was the way to go as the developing value area low and developing VPOC were supportive throughout the session as was the VWAP. Then we got a classic afternoon spike that tagged a naked point of control from 6/5's.



Hope that provides some better clarity for you. Just be sure to include big picture market structure to find your intra-day trade levels. The Market Profile TPO does an excellent job with helping you find trade location.

If you have questions, please let me know and I can elaborate on anything.

Cheers,
PB

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Private Banker View Post

...

If you have questions, please let me know and I can elaborate on anything.

Cheers,
PB

Hi @Private Banker

Judicious analysis. Out of curiosity. On the last chart where the cumulative delta is shown and just before 'Houston we have lift off' at around 2:00pm EST or 14:00 EST on your chart. Would you agree that cumulative delta was not a factor to take this trade given the fact it was still pointing down. That's probably why i do not use it as it seems to contradict price action. What's your opinion?

Thanks

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 Private Banker 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Hi @Private Banker

Judicious analysis. Out of curiosity. On the last chart where the cumulative delta is shown and just before 'Houston we have lift off' at around 2:00pm EST or 14:00 EST on your chart. Would you agree that cumulative delta was not a factor to take this trade given the fact it was still pointing down. That's probably why i do not use it as it seems to contradict price action. What's your opinion?

Thanks

That's an excellent observation. My thoughts as noted below are, the ON inventory was extremely short and by looking at the CD, you can see there were several attempts to keep the market down but price was being absorbed at those key levels which was very clear on my volume ladder as well. You can see on the CD double bottom that there was strong accumulation at the same level there which eventually spiked hard and sparked a short covering rally into the pit close.


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 trendisyourfriend 
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That's an excellent observation. My thoughts as noted below are, the ON inventory was extremely short and by looking at the CD, you can see there were several attempts to keep the market down but price was being absorbed at those key levels which was very clear on my volume ladder as well. You can see on the CD double bottom that there was strong accumulation at the same level there which eventually spiked hard and sparked a short covering rally into the pit close.

Thanks, but if you don't mind to clarify. I am still not sure we could have interpreted that the cumulative delta was in a phase of accumulation just prior to the event 'Houston, we have lift off'. When does cumulative delta become important in your decision making processs? Do you have cases where it is what makes tilt the balance in favor of a trade setup?

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 Private Banker 
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Thanks, but if you don't mind to clarify. I am still not sure we could have interpreted that the cumulative delta was in a phase of accumulation just prior to the event 'Houston, we have lift off'. When does cumulative delta become important in your decision making processs? Do you have cases where it is what makes tilt the balance in favor of a trade setup?

OK, so based on where we opened we were in an area of support where buyers have been present in the recent past. On the opening drive higher you can see on the CD that there were people stepping in front of the bus trying to sell into the move giving CD a rigid look. Once the market established it's initial balance, the market tested the IB mid-point and the developing value area low and you can see buyers stepping in there. This took price up and out of the IB and sellers stepped in again to try and protect their shorts. This pushed price back into balance and some small buying stepped in there again. We then ran back up to the IB high and was met with weaker sellers. The developing VPOC shifted down to the VWAP area and created strong support as you can see on the CD that buyers stepped in again. This time we really broke out of balance and up into the first expansion area. Then there was one last attempt by the sellers to push price down but was met with a confluence of the IB high, VWAP and the developing VPOC. I would imagine many covered there which also brought in more buyers which was at the same CD level as the last break out of balance. The resulting move was a straight up short covering event. So on the last test lower for CD, it was probably a combination of short covering at VWAP as well as buyers jumping in at that confluence to squeeze out the shorts into the pit close.

I don't enter into a position based on what I see with CD. I'm looking at the volume ladder for absorption at the levels I want to establish a position. CD is more of a confirmation tool and I've set it up in a way to somewhat resemble a bid/ask MACD. So, I track the inventory but also use it as one would with a standard MACD.

Hopefully that makes sense.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Thanks, that makes more sense. I still consider it a distraction as the important factor is location and the immediate strength/weakness detected at that juncture but i may revise my position in the future if i see some benefit. I appreciate your willingness to share.


Private Banker View Post
OK, so based on where we opened we were in an area of support where buyers have been present in the recent past. On the opening drive higher you can see on the CD that there were people stepping in front of the bus trying to sell into the move giving CD a rigid look. Once the market established it's initial balance, the market tested the IB mid-point and the developing value area low and you can see buyers stepping in there. This took price up and out of the IB and sellers stepped in again to try and protect their shorts. This pushed price back into balance and some small buying stepped in there again. We then ran back up to the IB high and was met with weaker sellers. The developing VPOC shifted down to the VWAP area and created strong support as you can see on the CD that buyers stepped in again. This time we really broke out of balance and up into the first expansion area. Then there was one last attempt by the sellers to push price down but was met with a confluence of the IB high, VWAP and the developing VPOC. I would imagine many covered there which also brought in more buyers which was at the same CD level as the last break out of balance. The resulting move was a straight up short covering event. So on the last test lower for CD, it was probably a combination of short covering at VWAP as well as buyers jumping in at that confluence to squeeze out the shorts into the pit close.

I don't enter into a position based on what I see with CD. I'm looking at the volume ladder for absorption at the levels I want to establish a position. CD is more of a confirmation tool and I've set it up in a way to somewhat resemble a bid/ask MACD. So, I track the inventory but also use it as one would with a standard MACD.

Hopefully that makes sense.


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 Private Banker 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Thanks, that makes more sense. I still consider it a distraction as the important factor is location and the immediate strength/weakness detected at that juncture but i may revise my position in the future if i see some benefit. I appreciate your willingness to share.

You're welcome! I agree with the thought of it being a distraction. BTW, the chart I showed there is only really looked at with any emphasis once I'm in a position and I mainly use it just to manage my trail stop. Like any indicator, CD is lagging in a sense because trade location is the most important factor for a trade as you mentioned as well. All the indicators then react once price has hit that important level which is why I use it solely as a confirmation tool once in a position. Maybe give it another chance with that in mind.

Cheers,
PB

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iTrade2golf
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Upupandaway View Post
Ok so 3%. How do I explain what I'm thinking. Is your stop placement have anything to do with, a point, a number? Or is it just 3% from where every you enter, not matter where you enter? I mean...does this make sense...just 3 percent from where ever? Not like swing low, 15 ticks back...have you looked at where your entry is from, and said "Ok if it goes past here, I'd be out"?


I do not look at swing points as stop placements, one reason is that everyone sees those swings and some place there stops there which leads to a short or long covering, so this is not an option for me. To make it easy to see I place my stop 30 ticks away for every $10k in my account on the CL per contract I trade. I also make my stop at least 25% of the Average Daily Range which ever is greater and reduce my number of contracts.

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 Upupandaway 
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Private Banker.

Ok I understand more of what your talking about. I see the rejection tails, thats really obvious once explained. I was looking at this same thing, in a different way(see chart). So...my MP chart is not the same as yoru chart with the letters on it? What does the chart with letters on it do for you, that my MP chart wont do? I'd like to understand the difference in them.

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 Private Banker 
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Upupandaway View Post
Private Banker.

Ok I understand more of what your talking about. I see the rejection tails, thats really obvious once explained. I was looking at this same thing, in a different way(see chart). So...my MP chart is not the same as yoru chart with the letters on it? What does the chart with letters on it do for you, that my MP chart wont do? I'd like to understand the difference in them.

I guess the difference visually seen right off the bat when comparing a plain candlestick bar vs. a MP TPO is the organization of the TPO's letters showing how long price spent it's time at a particular price level. You simply can't get that by just looking at a plain price chart.

So in my example, you see a buying tail on Friday's TPO profile and then price spent a majority of the session within a more accepted area higher with a final expansion run/spike to tag the naked point of control from June 5th if I recall correctly.

There's obviously a lot more to it than my brief summary here but a good starting point to become familiar with MP is by simply reading the good old CBOT Market Profile handbook:

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/interactive/marketprofile/handbook.pdf

Although it's a bit stale in presentation with it being in black and white and lengthy, everything rudimentary you would want to know is explained in the handbook.

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 Upupandaway 
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Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Private banker, what charting software do you use to get your TPO charts? Thanks

Also I recall FutrueTraders71 talking about HVN/LVN's and using those sometimes for targets I think. Anyways, atleast on my chart when I set Gomi's MP to show them, this is what it looks like. Well atleast for me, not helpful. Do you use these, and what is their signifigance?

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 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Plus 327 dollars paper trading 5 trades
Plus 123 live account.


Ok well this morning went great. I was only able to make 1 trade on my live account. I had trouble getting it started. Buy the time I did, I had made five paper trades and would probable of been done. But another trade presented itself. I thought it was likely (but continues to go down right now) however it did enough to get what I wanted out of it. Even though it didn't have any follow through, it was a sucess. So that's good.

So basically I'd almost be done for the week here. However I know that if I make such and such amount on "Monday" their is usually more than "one" good day a week. Well, let's say more than "a couple" of good trades. So I will trade tomorrow "live" and depending on how that goes then I'll decide whether or not to stop for the week.

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 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Just wondering if anyone could, or would tell me what they are paying for a round turn on the CL? I thought mine was 4.75, but from the one trade I made today looks like it's 6.42. I'm wondering what anyone else might pay for a trade on the CL...

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iTrade2golf
Nashville, TN
 
 
Posts: 38 since Jun 2011
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Upupandaway View Post
Just wondering if anyone could, or would tell me what they are paying for a round turn on the CL? I thought mine was 4.75, but from the one trade I made today looks like it's 6.42. I'm wondering what anyone else might pay for a trade on the CL...


I pay around 2.32 a side for the CL using Interactive Brokers, if I am not mistaken, which comes out to $4.64 R/T. I pay 2.76-2.46 aside with OpenEcry account, which makes it $5.52-4.92.

Looks like you had another good day trading, looks like you are working hard to stay within your trading system, Good Job. Keep up the good work.

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 Beljevina 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MT4
Broker: Amp/CQG, Citibank
Trading: CL, GC, 6E, ES, TF, EURUSD, GBPJPY, AUDUSD
 
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Looks like $5.02 per CL RT contract for me.

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 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
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Upupandaway View Post
Private banker, what charting software do you use to get your TPO charts? Thanks

Also I recall FutrueTraders71 talking about HVN/LVN's and using those sometimes for targets I think. Anyways, atleast on my chart when I set Gomi's MP to show them, this is what it looks like. Well atleast for me, not helpful. Do you use these, and what is their signifigance?

I use several platforms. If you want a free trial for one on NT, try out the Fin-Alg TPO. I have no affiliation with them of course and am not sure how they're able to do this without the CME coming after them for copyright infringement but it's an excellent indicator and not too expensive. I'm not sure of any other TPO only indicators for NT.

But if you really want to dive into the Market Profile and Volume Profile world, then I'd recommend taking a look at Investor RT or Market Delta and you would need to subscribe to DTN IQ Feed for accurate back fill data especially for the Volume composite information.

As for looking at HVN and LVN levels, you need to have a large time frame composite that shows how price reacted to a certain level in the past. Intra-day levels have far less impact in my opinion. I personally don't use volume composite HVN and LVN levels for trade location but keep an eye on them for confluence.

Cheers,
PB

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