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The first thing I want to do is qoute this guy Monpere.
"Everything sucks a certain percentage of the time, that includes indicators, pure price action, and any combination in between. Trading is not about a certain thing being always right or wrong or even being right more times then it is wrong. Trading is about the percentage of time that thing is right, and how much money you generally make when it's right versus how much money you lose when it is wrong. An indicator that is right 30% of the time can still make you a boat load of money, if within that 30% of the time it is right you have a money management approach that makes more money then that 70% of the time when it is wrong. Familiarize yourself with, and apply the concepts of Expectancy, and backtesting to determine if your method is a method that will be profitable."
Wow! Well said!
I've been keeping a journal for about two months now. I've not posted it because it takes alot of effort to keep up a journal off line and online too. However I want to help anyone as I've been helped. Also it's not lost on me that in helping I will be helped, thats a spirituial law, I firmly adhere to.
This is my trading plan
My Trading Goal:
I plan to target 50 ticks a week on the CL, and trade no more than 3 days a week. I'm doing this so I do not become overwhelmed. I will add 1 contract for every three thousand dollars earned until I am trading 7 contracts and then I'll maintain for a year. I'll trade as little as possible, I'm doing this so I don't become overwhelmed.
The CL gaps a lot, and buying or selling at the open when it does often produces price movement up to and beyond 30 ticks. I'll expect at least 20 ticks in all those situations. With an initial stop of 15 ticks to be moved accordingly.
After the open I'll look for “Pull Backs” or “Back To Moving Average Trade” I also will be taking notice of the 5 minute chart what the volume is like and the mood of the market, from each 5 minute bar to the next. The way a 5 minute bar closes is important and will be considered accordingly.
1. Buying or selling at the open: I will buy or sell at the open given there is sufficient momentum. Target two points. Stop is 15 ticks but to moved accordingly.
2. Pull Backs: Prices move to make a “New Low, or High” and pulls back at least 20 ticks. The MACD is above or below its zero line. The 50EMA has been the correct color for the intended trade direction. Background is green or red ideally.
3. Back To Moving Average Trade(BTMAT): Price is off the high or low and is closing inside the 50EMA. The target is the white 34EMA or 10 ticks. Stop is set to 14 ticks.
Not something I have talked about yet, but need to. I will trade before the IB is in. But after it is in, and I've marked it on my charts I will give a lot of consideration to the IB High and Low. I have had some success with figuring out what “Day Type” we will have, after the IB is in. It's just a matter of watching how price reacts to these levels and responses to it.
Psychologically this is important to keep in mind
1. You can win, and you should win.
2. Trading is a auction process, price rise because there is more demand than supply.
3. No one knows you, or is out to get you personally.
4. The market doesn’t know you
5. Something is always happening even when it seems like it's not.
6. Do not become bored, or stagnate while trading, stay alert, ready for anything
You have to be willing to be bored Chad, just deal with it, get over it, this is what it is.
Don’t go “looking” for something. Wait for your trades to come, know they will. Know
your trades will come. Don’t jump the gun, stop fucking around with it, it's time to get
on with the business side of making money. You have to stop now, and just do what
works. You will lose, know it, own it. But you will win also.
Thats the end of it. The Charts below are the four I use. 150tick chart main, 5minute help with direction, 60minute to help with IB, and Daily so I dont get caught with my pants down.
Last edited by Upupandaway; May 7th, 2012 at 11:31 PM.
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I was going to post my journal from April up till now. However I saved it all, and the pictures in OpenOffice.org, a free program. I thought I might just be able to tell people to download it, and I could just provide a link to my journal. However I realize this wont work, because I will lose the picture, just for the sake of posting it here. So I'm starting with today
After the prior two day when it gaped huge I thought a bounce of some degree would happen. I mean this is my week right here. All I have to do is maintain and don’t screw it up later on in the week. I had so many trades because things where going my way. I was right, a lot, and I've learned when that happens to keep going till your proven wrong. I cant say I did anything wrong today. Good day
Below are three pictures. Two are of the first part of the trading day and the second on the 150 tick chart. The third is of the 5 minute chart. Also is a picture of all the stats.
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
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Tuesday May 8, 25 trades + 475 dollars 17 wins nine loss's
Had the direction right today but was knocked out alot. Thats something I just have learned to accept, their is no way I'm going to get the perfect entry every time. I can kill my thought process by thinking "if" I'll get stoped out or not. I'm thinking in terms of "Starting Monday I know I can make atleast 500 dollars on the CL".
One thing is the trade where I made 380, looks like I just decided to hold after a string of loss's. That wasn't the case. By that time the IB was in, and I was sure on the direction. Their was a Daily Gap and a 60 minute Gap and I took profit at the daily gap. Why? Because that's enough, and their is no way to tell if it will bounce or not. Until it does right? That trade put me back ahead a little, so I was good with it.
Their was a section in the morning where I took three loss's in a row. Looking at it now I see I was to lose, but I'm not going to regret it or dwell on it, just try to be effective in not allowing it to happen again.
I am trading my trades in and around the IB. I am active in trying to figure out what "Day Type" we will have. I am also active in monitoring a 5 minute charts with MP on it and watching when the POC changes for the day. It helps in trying to decide if people are vauling new prices, and if prices will rise or fall.
Added two more pictures second one in next post. The point of showing this is to show that the POC remained so long near the low of the day. A rise was likely to occur, along with good volume.
Last edited by Upupandaway; May 8th, 2012 at 09:48 PM.
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Below is a picture of a 5 minute chart and a MP of the past three days. You can see where the POC is, and thats exactly what I'm thinking for as a target "if" it goes long. I personally dont think it could make it to 150.0 before sellers stepping back in, and catching what they missed on the gaps. Also a retracement back to the "white" trend line is highly likely at some point and is another potential target. Not to hold to, but to trade to.
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Ok well I'm posting this now cause I'm done. 9:52 right after Oil inventory, prices went and hit yesterdays prior POC. Disturbed in the morning went up after report, I got that, that's it.
Their is a 5 minute chart below showing where I got in at, eventually target was that red line, the POC from yesterday. Now I didn't hold it till then, that's nuts, and it almost never happens that it just runs right to it. I did enter three more times "to it". I can do that, I'm good at that.
Also a picture of the 150 tick chart with all the wins and loss's.
Whats good about today?
I was down 360 and made it back. That's good. Whats better is that I didn't "try" to make it back, I traded my trades and that made it back. I knew it would, either today, tomorrow or the next. Also I had better entries, was more focused on that, and got it.
So I wont post again till Monday. The plan is to make 500 a week, and or trade no more than three days a week, so I do not become overwhelmed.
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On a 150T CL chart, a 7-10 tick initial stop loss should be plenty to prove whether you're right.
I would recommend that you look at all of your prior winners and find the average MFE and MAE which resulted from those trades. I know it's customary to look at some 1 tick below or above the entry bar for the initial stop, but if your average MAE is smaller, it's telling you that that conventional wisdom is wrong and will cost you extra in losses with no benefit to your bottom line.