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A CL Trading Journal

  #151 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
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Upupandaway View Post
Todays Friday June 22.

I traded to today "live" made about 320 dollars. Traded 1 contract.

The day prior on the 21 I traded live as well. Which ended up being a loss of about 360 on the day. My account was now at 3,828.64 starting this morning that's where it was.

You've been given some good advice [stop trading futures, stop trading oil], it is now up to you whether you want to follow it, or if you want to continue to think you are better than that.

Enjoy your weekend,

Mike

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  #152 (permalink)
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
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Upupandaway View Post
Todays Friday June 22.

I traded to today "live" made about 320 dollars. Traded 1 contract.

The day prior on the 21 I traded live as well. Did well for a while. Well actually all day. I was trading 2 contracts, and was up 1200 dollars. I had lost one trade for 90 dollars. Near the end of the day, I tried entering long two different times and lost those. After those two loss's I was still up 20 dollars. So on the last trade I traded 3 contracts, didnt work out, lost 540 dollars. Which ended up being a loss of about 360 on the day. My account was now at 3,828.64 starting this morning that's where it was.

Pictures from that day below. Pictures from today June 22 in next post

Oh in the second picture, the first trade I can not say that was a mistake. But I think obviously I should of stopped their. And I know that also the last trade in the third picture was just...stupid...mistake...was a hoping! So..I know that was awful

Do you mind if I chime in here? @PandaWarrior pointed me over here with the mention and finally had a chance to full read through all of this.

I'm always happy to help out but it's important that you listen and at least consider what I have to say. And this may sound harsh but if you were at a prop firm or an institutional trade desk or fund you would be barred from trading until you can show you are in the right frame of mind and can show an improvement in your trading and risk management. Losing around 40% of your capital in one day would probably get you canned.

Where do I start here... First and foremost, I'm going to outline some ideas for you to put into consideration that should be implemented immediately. But I want to make sure this is money that you can afford to lose. If you're depending on making this "happen", then maybe look to build your account equity up more through other sources of income.

1. Establish a maximum stop out amount you can have before shutting your order entry platform down for the day. Feel free to continue trading in SIM if you want to but no more live trades. You simply aren't seeing the market correctly and need to step back and analyze the situation.

2. Your account is now below the required margin amount for a full CL contract (without your brokers leverage), do you think it's a wise idea to continue to trade that market? I'd recommend risking no more than 2% - 3% of your account equity on each trade. So for a $3,800 account 3% = $114. The minimum amount I can say one could risk is $150/contract on CL. And that's an extremely tight stop that will get hit more often than not. In this volatility, 20 - 25 ticks seems to be doable although still tight. So, $200/$3800 = ~5%, $250/$3800 = ~7%. No more CL for you!

Alternatively, if you like CL so much, trade 1 mini-CL contract (QM). 20 ticks in CL works out to be roughly 8 ticks in QM which will give you a risk per trade amount of $100 (plus commissions). QM's tick structure is similar to ES' but has full fungibility to CL.

Of course there are other markets to trade. The NQ has a much smaller tick size. There's also the Micro EUR/USD which has a tick size of $1.25. Hey, you're not going to become wealthy trading these smaller markets but it's not about making money in trading, it's about how much you can afford to lose! BTW, I'm not a fan of the off exchange FX markets. I'd recommend the CME Micro's markets over the Spot markets.

3. Before even touching your buy or sell button, establish key support and resistance levels that if anything you can lean on for the next trading day. I mentioned Market Profile levels in the past as levels to watch, you can also use the Gom volume profile tool as those levels can be very similar. Or simply look for key pivot levels.

4. Once you have a game plan in place, begin the day watching the open and get a feel for what is happening before doing anything. Once you see a key level being tested, implement your strategy from there.

5. Stop worrying about your PNL. Limit the number of trades you make per day. Say a max amount of 5 - 8 trades. This will teach you discipline. Win, lose or draw, you're using extreme discretion in what you're doing and effectively saving bullets for the next fight. You want to be able to come back tomorrow. Focus on your trading game plan for the day and that's it. DO NOT LOOK AT YOUR PNL! You already have a max loss amount which I would recommend being a number of stop outs vs. a monetary amount. If you reach your max stop amount amount, you're done. Otherwise keep trading and review your results at the end of the day, not during your trading. When traders track their PNL intra-day, they're building a psychological hurdle. Simply mark down your stop outs on a piece of paper or something and go from there.

6. I know a lot of people have been bashing this but I see the relevance in using SIM to get you comfortable with your new guidelines. When a pilot is learning to fly, they use a flight simulator to acclimate to their tools, processes and procedures which include risk controls, etc. There is no emotional risk there as it's a simulation but I think you can benefit from it. Practice your trading in SIM until you feel confident in leaning off key levels in your trading and become consistent in trading well. The money, will take care of itself but do not focus on it.

Adjust your SIM cash level and margin requirements to mirror what your current account equity is and treat it as if it's real. Be sure to add the commissions in as well if possible. If you blow out the account, obviously you're not ready to go live. Do this for a while fine tuning your method and risk management until you're consistent.

I again will stress that this will not emulate the stress of real trading but you have to build confidence.

7. Continue to journal your progress here on futures.io (formerly BMT). This will help in your confidence building and self-awareness. And be honest! If you blow up, explain what happened in detail.

8. Continue to educate yourself in trading, overall financial markets and the psychological aspects of trading.

I'm sure there's more but start with that for now. Remember this, successful trading does not happen in a short order. There are so many variables, it's very difficult to fully grasp in a short period of time.

I hope you find this helpful and you follow this. If you don't and you continue to trade CL, just know you're trading a very advanced market filled with professional traders with extensive knowledge and experience. Not to be pompous or anything but I trade this market and I will take your money away from you in short order. You need to really think again about what you're doing and attempt to right this situation you're in. There are so many people here on futures.io (formerly BMT) that will be willing to provide you with great, sound advice that you can benefit from. I hope you can realize this and take full advantage of what everyone is offering you.

Cheers,
PB

  #153 (permalink)
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
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Oh, and one other thing. At the end of the day, it's not about the indicators or the method, it's about the execution and risk management. I could take a basic 5 minute chart and trade off Bollinger Band levels all day long and do extremely well. The difference isn't the indicator or method I'm using, it's simply the confidence and risk management I would have in place. So, don't get caught up in the indicator no indicator debate as it's pointless.

Trade what you know, learn it, live it and manage your risk.

  #154 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
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PandaWarrior View Post
Ok, this isn't perfect but I have to run now and I won't be back rest of the weekend. By no means is this the only way to trade this but I think you get the idea. This is just one man's perspective.....

I said I wasn't coming back to the screen this weekend but I screwed up my screen shot and couldn't let it rest. Attached is a new screen shot with a text insert where I overshot the limits of my text capture box.

Its AN answer to; If the MACD isn't the trigger, what is?


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #155 (permalink)
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863

Also, regarding the MP theory if that's someting you want to look further into, here's a basic TPO indicator to at least learn from. I'd recommend using the ETH session that allows you to see what the overnight session has done in addition to the previous day's RTH session. So if you chose to trade the QM (mini-CL), use the CL chart but have QM as your market being traded on your DoM. Same goes for the Micro EUR/USD (M6E). If you trade it, have the full size EUR/USD (6E) on your chart but have the micro set up on your DoM.

Attached Files
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  #156 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks Given: 168
Thanks Received: 166

Thanks for the posts.

My account on Saturday June 23 reads 3954.32.
Thursday before I traded live again it read 3634.60.

I think my performance on Thursday was good. Considering what has happened, it was good. The day after I lost 3800 dollars trading an absurd amount of contracts for my account size, I traded live again and was up 1200 dollars trading 2 contracts, till once again at the end of the day I did what I shouldn't do, and lost another 370 dollars.

I know everyone believes I should stop trading. Some think I should trade micro lots. I can tell you right now I'm not ever going to do that. That wont work for me, wont work for my pscyhe. I can aslo say Im not going to go back to paper trading. What I think is, is that I have to get over the hurdles with "live" money, or I'm not going to get over them at all. I'm not "trying" to make the money back. I tried that for two days last week, and blew more money. Then Thursday came around and I was like "Ok...slow down" and once I did that, I did good, for my system.

I'm not under the delusion I can trade multiple contracts anymore, atleast not now. I believe because it's been so few times I've traded live money, that staying trading is better for me than rolling back to something I've been doing for the last 9 years. I know had I not made those crticial mistakes, while maybe not "killing the markets daily" I'd definitely not be killing me account. I know now that my paper trading results are realistic, and can be achieved, just as a screw on my part is realistic and if responded to badly can be achieved. My remedy is to be more patient, because inpatience is what got me here in the first place.


I hope though I've decided to continue to trade, against advice that I will continue to recieve, much needed encouragment and advice from other members. I hope those members will continue to point out whatever they deem neccesary, to help me improve.

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  #157 (permalink)
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
Thanks Given: 2,144
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Private Banker View Post
Oh, and one other thing. At the end of the day, it's not about the indicators or the method, it's about the execution and risk management. I could take a basic 5 minute chart and trade off Bollinger Band levels all day long and do extremely well. The difference isn't the indicator or method I'm using, it's simply the confidence and risk management I would have in place. So, don't get caught up in the indicator no indicator debate as it's pointless.

Trade what you know, learn it, live it and manage your risk.

I cannot stress enough how fine this advise is.

Private Banker has been a tremendous help to me personally with my trading.

Likewise, Panda Warrior, and Big Mike and many others.

Suffice to say that I would never have been able to progress to the point I am now had it not been for these individuals, and for others too numerous to mention.

You would be well served to consider carefully their advise. (in other words, do what they say)

Unless you do, I dont beleive you can reasonably expect to receive any more advise, beyound what you already have received.

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  #158 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 6,329
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Upupandaway View Post
Thanks for the posts.

My account on Saturday June 23 reads 3954.32.
Thursday before I traded live again it read 3634.60.

I think my performance on Thursday was good. Considering what has happened, it was good. The day after I lost 3800 dollars trading an absurd amount of contracts for my account size, I traded live again and was up 1200 dollars trading 2 contracts, till once again at the end of the day I did what I shouldn't do, and lost another 370 dollars.

I know everyone believes I should stop trading. Some think I should trade micro lots. I can tell you right now I'm not ever going to do that. That wont work for me, wont work for my pscyhe. I can aslo say Im not going to go back to paper trading. What I think is, is that I have to get over the hurdles with "live" money, or I'm not going to get over them at all. I'm not "trying" to make the money back. I tried that for two days last week, and blew more money. Then Thursday came around and I was like "Ok...slow down" and once I did that, I did good, for my system.

I'm not under the delusion I can trade multiple contracts anymore, atleast not now. I believe because it's been so few times I've traded live money, that staying trading is better for me than rolling back to something I've been doing for the last 9 years. I know had I not made those crticial mistakes, while maybe not "killing the markets daily" I'd definitely not be killing me account. I know now that my paper trading results are realistic, and can be achieved, just as a screw on my part is realistic and if responded to badly can be achieved. My remedy is to be more patient, because inpatience is what got me here in the first place.


I hope though I've decided to continue to trade, against advice that I will continue to recieve, much needed encouragment and advice from other members. I hope those members will continue to point out whatever they deem neccesary, to help me improve.

Well once again, this thread has forced me out of my weekend relaxation.

If you won't stop trading, then at least do this. Before you start trading again, at the minimum, establish a money management plan. It should include:

1. Max risk of your account you will risk each day.
2. Max risk per trade
3. Max number of trades
4. An equity trail stop. In other words, I am up $1200.00. What percentage of this am I willing to lose before I stop for the day.
5. At what level of profit will I add another contract?

Once you have this in place. Post it here on bottom of the very first post of the thread so the rest that care to continue following your journey can see it plainly.

Next, after each day of trading, post your results. Not the NT summary tab but the trade tab. The one that details the entry and exits along with the date and time stamp as well as the cumulative totals. This will give you some accountability to the forum and it will force you to be honest with yourself in context of your trading plan and money management.

Consider ditching the MACD. I promise you it is doing more harm than good as an entry tool. As @Private Banker said, its not the indicators that do you in, its execution and money management, but the MACD is not an entry method if you are already using moving averages to time entries.....think about what a MACD actually is, do you really need it?

Ok, I'm done now. Good luck. I look forward to seeing your money management plan.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
  #159 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks Given: 168
Thanks Received: 166


VinceVirgil View Post
I cannot stress enough how fine this advise is.

Private Banker has been a tremendous help to me personally with my trading.

Likewise, Panda Warrior, and Big Mike and many others.

Suffice to say that I would never have been able to progress to the point I am now had it not been for these individuals, and for others too numerous to mention.

You would be well served to consider carefully their advise. (in other words, do what they say)

Unless you do, I dont beleive you can reasonably expect to receive any more advise, beyound what you already have received.

Yah I think thats good advice too. Tells us that this is not really in the indicators right.

I hope what you suggest isn't true. However it would seem that it is, and even from the start of this journal. I've only heard from most "after" I had the blow up. Everyone likes a good blow up though, lot's of suggestions. But I got very few on the days when I was growing my account. When I had it up to 7998 dollars after only a week of trading. And to be honest I was surprised I hadn't heard from people on days when I grew my account, that seemed odd to me. So like you are suggesting, I agree, that would be par for the course. But still I hope it's not true, thanks for the post

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  #160 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks Given: 168
Thanks Received: 166


1. I'm going to risk 400 a day at most.
2. I'm going to risk at the start of the trade 17 ticks, which will be moved to 12 ticks after the first bar from entry closes.
3. 10 at most, max number of trades
4. I'm not willing to lose anymore than 150 dollars once I'm up for the day. If that happens I'll stop
5. I'll add another contract at 10,000, or possible sonner. This will depend soley on my performace more than my account size. I should win, "IF" I do what I know is right. So if I can prove to myself that I can becomed disciplined enough to do what is "right"...then I would trade 2 contracts at 8000.


I want to ditch the MACD. But I'm not going to change anything while I'm trading live. I agree with you about all the points you have made, and it does need to find it's way off my charts. I do not think that should be while I trade live. I've proven to myself I can make money with what I got, also that I can destroy it if I mess it up. If I got rid of the MACD now, I wouldn't know what to use to enter trades with. But I hear you...and I'm working on it. Any suggestions.

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Last Updated on February 6, 2013


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