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I do not see from your charts where would of been a good place to get long, or short...or play a bounce. Maybe I just dont see it, obviously. I've posted what I do personally see though. In that first 5 minute chart with the profile I'm only showing that so you know where I got the red lines from on the second 5 minute picture, which you should look at now.
When I first learned about MP, seeing the VPOC was something I saw right away. Today on the CL all three of these where hit. I suppose if a person was so inclined and had long signals like I did this morning, you could trade to it. So for me its an area, but only that. The width and breath of the entire MP area is just to much. But a number, a "point" to shoot for, I can handle that. But if it's just well....ehh...somewhere in this area....umm...that only spells big loss's for me lol.
Anyways...I kinda like what FturesTrader71 one said. He said, "Whatever it is, you gotta know it, and it's gotta speak to you" But I know it has it's place, enough to respect what I think are the major parts of it. Like VPOC. Also the IB is huge for me. That is something concreate that happens everday. Their is not a day when the first hour is up, and you cant draw the high and low. Knowing that the big boys use that is invaluable I think. Als the "Day Types". I can with a large extent at a certain point tell what type of day type it "might be". Well that's like telling the future right? Right. Also I think FutureTrader71 make a very clear point, when he said " Remeber that, it's important" and he was refering to a "Normal Variation" day type. Which you have a 48% chance of happening, now that is something you can sink your teeth into I think. And as it where, that is the type of day it was today "Normal Variation"
All this said, I'm saying nothing bad about you, or anything you have said. I consider it all valuable to me, and thank you for posting here. It's much appreciated...it is..
I thank you, that is a good thing to of done. I have looked at range charts, and this is what I dont like about it. I cant see what's going on. I dont like that. Regardless if it stress's me out or not, I dont not like, being able to see what's happening. That said I understand what your saying. It would be better I'm sure. But you have a script you have written to trade. I know nothing about that. And alot of my stress is not from the up and down movement of a chart, (because you get that on range charts too) but from excuting my trades bad, then trying to ride it out.
One question I'd like to know though, what is your risk per trade? And do you trade the CL, I'm assuming, but you mat not. Thanks
My risk per each trade is 3% initially as a critical stop in case I lose connectivity. I will close a position out sooner if I am wrong on the direction at that particular time. I know to close a position if it I am wrong on direction at that time, or if I am right on direction but the timing is not correct. I have closed out positions for a smaller lose and then entered the next trade not soon after and it turned into a very good trade. I have no problem exiting a trade with a lose and saving my capitol for the next trade, since I let my winners run and cut my loses I am able to take the next setup just as comfortably as the previous. I have had 4 losing trades in a row to start a trading day and then the fifth trade I closed it out to get in the black. I let my winners run until I get a certain condition to close it. I NEVER set profit targets. This allows me to get big winners like this many times a week.
Yes I do trade CL along with many other markets. My trading associates and I monitor all markets and call out to each other if we notice a market that has given a signal as a trending market, these are the markets that make the big bucks for the week. I was taught many years ago to find a market that is trending and trade it . I never stay on one market every day. I disagree with people that tell others to learn to trade one market. If you have a sound system based on good methods and risk management, then you just need a trending market. For instance think of the last trading day you had in CL where you traded with the trend and the market went up or down most of the day and you thought that trading was so much easier on that day. That is if you were simply trading with the trend. Well if you find a market that is trending 4 out of 5 days whether it be CL, GC, ES, TF, 6E.....then trading becomes easier to just enter in the direction of the trend and let your winners ride.
I do trade markets that are trading markets and when I do this I use my scalping methods, however these require more entries and exits and therefor more chance for mistakes.
Ok so 3%. How do I explain what I'm thinking. Is your stop placement have anything to do with, a point, a number? Or is it just 3% from where every you enter, not matter where you enter? I mean...does this make sense...just 3 percent from where ever? Not like swing low, 15 ticks back...have you looked at where your entry is from, and said "Ok if it goes past here, I'd be out"?
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
No problem, here's what I was looking at yesterday.
First on the big picture daily, the market was set to open at the bottom of the current balance/bracket area. So that was clue number one. We were opening in support.
Then, when looking at the Market Profile TPO chart, you can see there was significant rejection tails out of this area on several other occasions, clue number two.
Based on that criteria, establishing a long position at the open made perfect sense. You then would need to find your entry. By looking at the overnight Market Profile TPO's, you can see we were opening at the value area low and point of control, great levels to lean on there. Also, looking at the overnight volume profile, you can see we were opening on the VPOC as well. Again, a great level to lean on.
From that point on, either establishing new or adding to your current long position was the way to go as the developing value area low and developing VPOC were supportive throughout the session as was the VWAP. Then we got a classic afternoon spike that tagged a naked point of control from 6/5's.
Hope that provides some better clarity for you. Just be sure to include big picture market structure to find your intra-day trade levels. The Market Profile TPO does an excellent job with helping you find trade location.
If you have questions, please let me know and I can elaborate on anything.
Judicious analysis. Out of curiosity. On the last chart where the cumulative delta is shown and just before 'Houston we have lift off' at around 2:00pm EST or 14:00 EST on your chart. Would you agree that cumulative delta was not a factor to take this trade given the fact it was still pointing down. That's probably why i do not use it as it seems to contradict price action. What's your opinion?
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
That's an excellent observation. My thoughts as noted below are, the ON inventory was extremely short and by looking at the CD, you can see there were several attempts to keep the market down but price was being absorbed at those key levels which was very clear on my volume ladder as well. You can see on the CD double bottom that there was strong accumulation at the same level there which eventually spiked hard and sparked a short covering rally into the pit close.
Thanks, but if you don't mind to clarify. I am still not sure we could have interpreted that the cumulative delta was in a phase of accumulation just prior to the event 'Houston, we have lift off'. When does cumulative delta become important in your decision making processs? Do you have cases where it is what makes tilt the balance in favor of a trade setup?
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
OK, so based on where we opened we were in an area of support where buyers have been present in the recent past. On the opening drive higher you can see on the CD that there were people stepping in front of the bus trying to sell into the move giving CD a rigid look. Once the market established it's initial balance, the market tested the IB mid-point and the developing value area low and you can see buyers stepping in there. This took price up and out of the IB and sellers stepped in again to try and protect their shorts. This pushed price back into balance and some small buying stepped in there again. We then ran back up to the IB high and was met with weaker sellers. The developing VPOC shifted down to the VWAP area and created strong support as you can see on the CD that buyers stepped in again. This time we really broke out of balance and up into the first expansion area. Then there was one last attempt by the sellers to push price down but was met with a confluence of the IB high, VWAP and the developing VPOC. I would imagine many covered there which also brought in more buyers which was at the same CD level as the last break out of balance. The resulting move was a straight up short covering event. So on the last test lower for CD, it was probably a combination of short covering at VWAP as well as buyers jumping in at that confluence to squeeze out the shorts into the pit close.
I don't enter into a position based on what I see with CD. I'm looking at the volume ladder for absorption at the levels I want to establish a position. CD is more of a confirmation tool and I've set it up in a way to somewhat resemble a bid/ask MACD. So, I track the inventory but also use it as one would with a standard MACD.
Thanks, that makes more sense. I still consider it a distraction as the important factor is location and the immediate strength/weakness detected at that juncture but i may revise my position in the future if i see some benefit. I appreciate your willingness to share.
