First I'm not even sure anyone even looks in here anymore. I guess if I dont get an responses I'll have to hunt some of you down, and by that I just mean PM you.
So my stops are to inconsistent. By that I mean also that my entries are also to inconsistent. I have a "area" to buy or sell in, not a defined spot. Well I have a well defined spot to enter from now. I have my stop set to 10 ticks at the start of the trade to account for a tick or two of slippage. I usually move it up to 8 ticks quickly.
I couldn't figure it out, how to enter on the CL and have a small stop. So I looked at other people on this site who also have journals about the Cl, or about how they trade the CL. I took from that and now have a 4 range chart to enter in on. I still use a 150 tick chart 5 minute chart and also a daily chart. I use the 150 tick chart and 4 range chart the most. I've learned my entry has to be precise. My entry cant just be in some area, allowing for a 25 tick swing against me just to see if I'm right. The mental part of that is just to taxing to over come if your wrong anymore than once or twice.
I've posted my statistics from today. Its pretty good. I won 15 trades and lost 14. My largest losing trade was only 210 dollars and my largest winning trade was 1080 dollars. I think that's pretty good considering I had almost as many losers as I did winners.
I'd appreciate anyone's thoughts.
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You are going to continue to lose LOTS of trades with a stop that small, what matters is that you continue letting your profits run, which it looks like you're doing.
If you want to lose fewer trades, my advice would be to do some testing (in sim) with a larger stop, say 20 ticks, from there you can collect MAE data, and whittle your stop down from there.
But one thing to consider, a smaller dataset chart will not reduce the amount of risk associated with a trade, only your perception of it.
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Stop trading CL. Spot forex or micro currency futures or equities or ETFs all come before trading full sized futures, and crude is only at the very end of the list for the most experienced traders.
First I'm not trading live. Just sim. Second I have figure out how to make for "me" a less than ten tick stop. One of the main problems is that my entry on a 150 tick chart is in an, "area". That area might be 5 ticks, or 25 ticks. So I always set it to 25 ticks, then moved it up. But once after losing a couple of times, that loss becomes very hard to overcome.
I trade the same trade set ups, I just use a 4range chart to enter. If I determine that I have a trade, then I wait for the candle to close below the MA, like in the picture below. Also the results I posted where from the first day. But if you think that many loss's with that much money made it poor...well I guess we disagree. But those results where based of me, just "taking" every trade, seeing how will the idea worked. I have far better stat's since then. This past week.
Anyways on the 4 range chart that ma is the "wilder" and I know from that point when a candle closes below that MA that I can have no greater than a 8 tick stop to see if what I thought was right or not. You can see from the pictures, and the one on the right in paticular, that candles are "way above" the 50 ema I have up. So the market was long, but at that point where it was, was overbought. I thought it was short, and I was right. But only using the 150 tick chart it becomes conffusing on where to get in. Look at this enough and you will know what I mean.
Anyhow thanks for responses, didn't think they would be so negative. But you get what you get I guess.
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"But one thing to consider, a smaller dataset chart will not reduce the amount of risk associated with a trade, only your perception of it."
I disagree completely. You can not enter a long term chart from a short term chart perspective and expect to have any sucess, I've learned that, cant do it. Now I realize you probable haven't read this journal, so your post is limited in it's scope. But what I'm talking about is finding a better entry, that is the "same" everytime. And tha'ts what I have. From the point that the candle closes "below or above the wilder ma" I know that I have a stop at ten ticks set at first to allow for any slippage. I move it to 7 or 8 quickly if their was no slippage. I also now know that from that "point" my expected target is three times what my risk is.
Now if your looking at my pictures and seeing every MACD cross, and everytime price closes above or below the Wilder MA and thinking I'm taking all those, well that's not the case. You'd get killed. I define a trade setup on the 150 tick chart, and the entry on the 4range chart.
Meh, I think my point may have been lost. What I was saying was this: Decreasing the time frame (range, data set, whatever your poison) of your chart, will not likely decrease the amount of stop outs you realize in your trading.
What I was suggesting is that you learn the amount of risk that the market attributes to your edge, you may find that you can either increase or decrease your stop to add some efficiency to your edge.
The smaller time frame I have added has nothing to do with with trying to have fewer stop outs. It only has to do with having a smaller stop once I see a trade set up. And thats what I have now. A initial stop of 10 ticks reduced to 8 quickly if their was no slippage. I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I think you thought I was trying to figure out how to be stopped out less, and thats not what the post was about...
Ok adding a 4range chart helped. Didnt solve the over all problem. I was listening to Trader71's vieod's the other night for like the 20 time, and it occured to me to have a scenario list. If this happens then I'll probable do this. If that happens then I'll do this. Of course I go over the prior day and take in to account the over night trading.
So I have a list of questions
what if " it Gaps up" what will I do?
what if it Gaps up but it's not significant what will I do?
Also
Gaps I decide not to play what will I do?
Late Day trades
Times not to trade
This is all built around the IB. I am able to with alot of frequency get trades to them, off them and trend trades from them right. I over trade, I know it now. More than just having a set of rules, I have a "to do list" for different scenario's, that always include the IB. It worked good today. Helped me keep my mind in focus, instead of just wandering "looking" for a trade. I was looking for a trade in the right area's. I've posted a picture
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Last week i had a disasterous day. Was due to "MA's" on my 5 minute chart being long, and prices being short on my entry chart. I got conffused. So...I have a different persptective now on price and failed "swings". So I focused on the making of, or the failure of swings. Combine that with everything else and that worked out really well.
Ok so it made that swing low, made another 700
Picture update is the 5 minute chart
See on the prior day the 5 minute chart how it can get conffusing. Looks long then goes short. So I hope that focusing on the swings, and failure of swings will help me with that and keeping it straight. Did today.
Pull up a 25 regression slope MA (aka 25 least-squares moving average) on that 150T CL chart. It helps me to get in on quick pullbacks AND find places to take reversals. Study it and you'll see what I mean. You can see from that that a 10 tick stop is plenty of room to give you more than 10 ticks on the winners. Stick around 50% winners and you'll be golden. On a 150T CL chart, if you get price closing to the other side by 5+ ticks, you should be looking to get out (whether it's on initial entry or picking up a pullback).
The 34 ema works well with the 25 lsma for 1 type of reversal setup. For example, in an uptrend, price rolls over and pulls back to the 34. You get a bounce and and a quick tap up to the 25 lsma and the down move continues (vice versa for a reversal to an uptrend. It's a great 1-2-3 type setup where you're looking to get in on the "2" at the 25 lsma. Really, 7 ticks is enough in this setup and you DON'T want price to close up through that 25 lsma for anything more than 2-3 ticks and then a quick about-face in your direction.
The 25 lsma provides a good visual at picking double tops and bottoms because, by the very nature of how it moves (regression-based), consolidation of price moves through the MA sideways where the 25 is covering the leading top of price (in an uptrend, vice verse on a downtrend) and that is the ideal place with low risk and high reward to take the reversal. A 5-6 tick stop is good in these setups.
One important thing (for me). If you're going to try this, you need to make your price bars BIG. First off, you can clearly see the setups and, secondly, it has a larger positive impact on your emotions to remind yourself to do the right things. Each of these posted pics actually take up a 24" screen.
The 150T CL chart is an excellent chart for this kind of trading. Step through historical charts, bar-by-bar, not seeing the future and train yourself to act at the appropriate times because none of this stuff "feels" right in real-time. That's why it's easy to see/understand and not so easy to execute.
[As a trending visual I'll color that line green if the last 3 closes have been successively higher, color it red if the last 3 closes have been successively lower and, otherwise, color it yellow.]
This is no special day today on the CL. You can go back over 2 years of 150 tick charts and you'll still see the same low tick risk, limit order entry setups for this style of trading. The majority of moves with no significant pullback are in the 12-20 tick area. That's why I said before that a 5-7 tick stop is not only doable but extremely important so that you can survive in this game even if your winning pct dips closer to 40% than 50%+.
IMO, don't waste your time looking for setups over 60% winners. The risk/reward ratio goes more towards 1:1 (and lower) as the winning pct goes higher. This puts a lot of pressure on your trading to maintain a high success rate and that's harder to do consistently for us emotional humans. If you start with a trading system which doesn't demand high winning pcts to begin with yet has small losses built-in to it (this post, for example), then that's where you get to experience a few good trades making your day and all those little losers just don't matter so much.
David, you asked for it and here they are. I rarely post here so this is about it for me. I've been doing this for 9 years so this is coming from the vault of GOOD things in my trading.
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Right ok thank you then. I am using a 8 range chart to have a ten tick stop on the CL. But sometimes it's larger. Also what is working for me is paying attention to the swings. Then I can look for my trades in and around what does and does not happen. Failed to swing, made the swing high, didn't really push through it. That stuff all works. Trend lines work, but get blown out on a lot of occasions. I have a regression channel up but removed it becaues it made me stick with a trade that was turning bad.
I still do all the same trades. But just recently I've given more focus to when prices fails to make a high, or it does make the high. Anyways...I'd of done great yesterday and today.
Good luck
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Ok so focusing on the swings and faliure of swings really helped me keep it straight. Helped keep me trading in the correct direction. Because when you think about it, swings are going to be broken, and bounced off of, and not made, and that all creates a opportunity to make money. So I did good today...
I just realized I posted this twice, so if you think your seeing double your not lol
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