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A CL Trading Journal
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A CL Trading Journal

  #211 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Orlando, Florida, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: eSignal
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 33 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 1 given, 92 received


David_R View Post
Can you share how you learned to enter to enable a 10 t stop?

A regression-based moving average has worked well for me when the volatility is good.

Pull up a 25 regression slope MA (aka 25 least-squares moving average) on that 150T CL chart. It helps me to get in on quick pullbacks AND find places to take reversals. Study it and you'll see what I mean. You can see from that that a 10 tick stop is plenty of room to give you more than 10 ticks on the winners. Stick around 50% winners and you'll be golden. On a 150T CL chart, if you get price closing to the other side by 5+ ticks, you should be looking to get out (whether it's on initial entry or picking up a pullback).

The 34 ema works well with the 25 lsma for 1 type of reversal setup. For example, in an uptrend, price rolls over and pulls back to the 34. You get a bounce and and a quick tap up to the 25 lsma and the down move continues (vice versa for a reversal to an uptrend. It's a great 1-2-3 type setup where you're looking to get in on the "2" at the 25 lsma. Really, 7 ticks is enough in this setup and you DON'T want price to close up through that 25 lsma for anything more than 2-3 ticks and then a quick about-face in your direction.

The 25 lsma provides a good visual at picking double tops and bottoms because, by the very nature of how it moves (regression-based), consolidation of price moves through the MA sideways where the 25 is covering the leading top of price (in an uptrend, vice verse on a downtrend) and that is the ideal place with low risk and high reward to take the reversal. A 5-6 tick stop is good in these setups.

One important thing (for me). If you're going to try this, you need to make your price bars BIG. First off, you can clearly see the setups and, secondly, it has a larger positive impact on your emotions to remind yourself to do the right things. Each of these posted pics actually take up a 24" screen.

The 150T CL chart is an excellent chart for this kind of trading. Step through historical charts, bar-by-bar, not seeing the future and train yourself to act at the appropriate times because none of this stuff "feels" right in real-time. That's why it's easy to see/understand and not so easy to execute.

[As a trending visual I'll color that line green if the last 3 closes have been successively higher, color it red if the last 3 closes have been successively lower and, otherwise, color it yellow.]

This is no special day today on the CL. You can go back over 2 years of 150 tick charts and you'll still see the same low tick risk, limit order entry setups for this style of trading. The majority of moves with no significant pullback are in the 12-20 tick area. That's why I said before that a 5-7 tick stop is not only doable but extremely important so that you can survive in this game even if your winning pct dips closer to 40% than 50%+.

IMO, don't waste your time looking for setups over 60% winners. The risk/reward ratio goes more towards 1:1 (and lower) as the winning pct goes higher. This puts a lot of pressure on your trading to maintain a high success rate and that's harder to do consistently for us emotional humans. If you start with a trading system which doesn't demand high winning pcts to begin with yet has small losses built-in to it (this post, for example), then that's where you get to experience a few good trades making your day and all those little losers just don't matter so much.

David, you asked for it and here they are. I rarely post here so this is about it for me. I've been doing this for 9 years so this is coming from the vault of GOOD things in my trading.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

The following 5 users say Thank You to SteveH for this post:
 
  #212 (permalink)
Elite Member
Dallas/Tx
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Right ok thank you then. I am using a 8 range chart to have a ten tick stop on the CL. But sometimes it's larger. Also what is working for me is paying attention to the swings. Then I can look for my trades in and around what does and does not happen. Failed to swing, made the swing high, didn't really push through it. That stuff all works. Trend lines work, but get blown out on a lot of occasions. I have a regression channel up but removed it becaues it made me stick with a trade that was turning bad.

I still do all the same trades. But just recently I've given more focus to when prices fails to make a high, or it does make the high. Anyways...I'd of done great yesterday and today.

Good luck

Attached Thumbnails
A CL Trading Journal-cl-10-12-150-tick-9_18_2012.jpg   A CL Trading Journal-cl-10-12-150-tick-9_18_2012-1.jpg   A CL Trading Journal-cl-10-12-150-tick-9_18_2012-3.jpg   A CL Trading Journal-sd.jpg  
The following user says Thank You to Upupandaway for this post:
 
  #213 (permalink)
Elite Member
Dallas/Tx
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received


This is just a visual of what I'm focusing more on. So far it's helped alot, keep me on the right side of the trade more than not.

Attached Thumbnails
A CL Trading Journal-faliures.jpg  
 
  #214 (permalink)
Elite Member
Dallas/Tx
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Tuesday Sept 18 plus 3900

Ok so focusing on the swings and faliure of swings really helped me keep it straight. Helped keep me trading in the correct direction. Because when you think about it, swings are going to be broken, and bounced off of, and not made, and that all creates a opportunity to make money. So I did good today...

I just realized I posted this twice, so if you think your seeing double your not lol

Attached Thumbnails
A CL Trading Journal-sd.jpg   A CL Trading Journal-cl-10-12-150-tick-9_18_2012.jpg   A CL Trading Journal-cl-10-12-150-tick-9_18_2012-1.jpg   A CL Trading Journal-cl-10-12-150-tick-9_18_2012-3.jpg  

Last edited by Upupandaway; September 18th, 2012 at 11:26 PM.
The following user says Thank You to Upupandaway for this post:
 
  #215 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
savannah, ga us
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Phone
Favorite Futures: Anything that is exhibiting Clarity
 
Posts: 21 since Dec 2011
Thanks: 15 given, 7 received

For me...


Upupandaway View Post
In the below picture I dont see a pull back to any degree. I entered because I believed it was going to continue up before having a pull back to a greater degree. I kow the MACD is in conflict with what else is happening alot of the time. I try to remedy this by all the MA, and such.

I know I would like to get rid of the MACD, but it's what I use to signal a trade. If not the MACD then what? Whats your suggestion? Just price action? Change to 5 minute chart? Thanks

Old topic, had to chime on this. That little microbuying channel on the open was a nice scalping opp. Just had to.

 
  #216 (permalink)
Elite Member
Dallas/Tx
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Big mike do I just request that this jounal be closed? Not really sure, but if that is how would you please close it?

Thank you


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