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A CL Trading Journal


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A CL Trading Journal

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  #201 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

First I'm not even sure anyone even looks in here anymore. I guess if I dont get an responses I'll have to hunt some of you down, and by that I just mean PM you.

So my stops are to inconsistent. By that I mean also that my entries are also to inconsistent. I have a "area" to buy or sell in, not a defined spot. Well I have a well defined spot to enter from now. I have my stop set to 10 ticks at the start of the trade to account for a tick or two of slippage. I usually move it up to 8 ticks quickly.

I couldn't figure it out, how to enter on the CL and have a small stop. So I looked at other people on this site who also have journals about the Cl, or about how they trade the CL. I took from that and now have a 4 range chart to enter in on. I still use a 150 tick chart 5 minute chart and also a daily chart. I use the 150 tick chart and 4 range chart the most. I've learned my entry has to be precise. My entry cant just be in some area, allowing for a 25 tick swing against me just to see if I'm right. The mental part of that is just to taxing to over come if your wrong anymore than once or twice.

I've posted my statistics from today. Its pretty good. I won 15 trades and lost 14. My largest losing trade was only 210 dollars and my largest winning trade was 1080 dollars. I think that's pretty good considering I had almost as many losers as I did winners.

I'd appreciate anyone's thoughts.

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  #202 (permalink)
San Jose, Ca
 
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Upupandaway View Post
First I'm not even sure anyone even looks in here anymore. I guess if I dont get an responses I'll have to hunt some of you down, and by that I just mean PM you.

So my stops are to inconsistent. By that I mean also that my entries are also to inconsistent. I have a "area" to buy or sell in, not a defined spot. Well I have a well defined spot to enter from now. I have my stop set to 10 ticks at the start of the trade to account for a tick or two of slippage. I usually move it up to 8 ticks quickly.

I couldn't figure it out, how to enter on the CL and have a small stop. So I looked at other people on this site who also have journals about the Cl, or about how they trade the CL. I took from that and now have a 4 range chart to enter in on. I still use a 150 tick chart 5 minute chart and also a daily chart. I use the 150 tick chart and 4 range chart the most. I've learned my entry has to be precise. My entry cant just be in some area, allowing for a 25 tick swing against me just to see if I'm right. The mental part of that is just to taxing to over come if your wrong anymore than once or twice.

I've posted my statistics from today. Its pretty good. I won 15 trades and lost 14. My largest losing trade was only 210 dollars and my largest winning trade was 1080 dollars. I think that's pretty good considering I had almost as many losers as I did winners.

I'd appreciate anyone's thoughts.

Seems to me you are doing well. Nice profit at about 50%.

I always thought CL Moved to fast and too much to have a 10 tick stop, but if you are able to work with that I think that's great.

Can you share how you learned to enter to enable a 10 t stop?

David

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  #203 (permalink)
Bay Area California
 
Experience: None
Platform: TT T4
Broker: Phillip Capital
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 795 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 829 given, 876 received



Upupandaway View Post
First I'm not even sure anyone even looks in here anymore. I guess if I dont get an responses I'll have to hunt some of you down, and by that I just mean PM you.

So my stops are to inconsistent. By that I mean also that my entries are also to inconsistent. I have a "area" to buy or sell in, not a defined spot. Well I have a well defined spot to enter from now. I have my stop set to 10 ticks at the start of the trade to account for a tick or two of slippage. I usually move it up to 8 ticks quickly.

I couldn't figure it out, how to enter on the CL and have a small stop. So I looked at other people on this site who also have journals about the Cl, or about how they trade the CL. I took from that and now have a 4 range chart to enter in on. I still use a 150 tick chart 5 minute chart and also a daily chart. I use the 150 tick chart and 4 range chart the most. I've learned my entry has to be precise. My entry cant just be in some area, allowing for a 25 tick swing against me just to see if I'm right. The mental part of that is just to taxing to over come if your wrong anymore than once or twice.

I've posted my statistics from today. Its pretty good. I won 15 trades and lost 14. My largest losing trade was only 210 dollars and my largest winning trade was 1080 dollars. I think that's pretty good considering I had almost as many losers as I did winners.

I'd appreciate anyone's thoughts.

You are going to continue to lose LOTS of trades with a stop that small, what matters is that you continue letting your profits run, which it looks like you're doing.

If you want to lose fewer trades, my advice would be to do some testing (in sim) with a larger stop, say 20 ticks, from there you can collect MAE data, and whittle your stop down from there.

But one thing to consider, a smaller dataset chart will not reduce the amount of risk associated with a trade, only your perception of it.

.
 
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  #204 (permalink)
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Manta, Ecuador
 
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Upupandaway View Post
I'd appreciate anyone's thoughts.

Stop trading CL. Spot forex or micro currency futures or equities or ETFs all come before trading full sized futures, and crude is only at the very end of the list for the most experienced traders.

Mike

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  #205 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

First I'm not trading live. Just sim. Second I have figure out how to make for "me" a less than ten tick stop. One of the main problems is that my entry on a 150 tick chart is in an, "area". That area might be 5 ticks, or 25 ticks. So I always set it to 25 ticks, then moved it up. But once after losing a couple of times, that loss becomes very hard to overcome.

I trade the same trade set ups, I just use a 4range chart to enter. If I determine that I have a trade, then I wait for the candle to close below the MA, like in the picture below. Also the results I posted where from the first day. But if you think that many loss's with that much money made it poor...well I guess we disagree. But those results where based of me, just "taking" every trade, seeing how will the idea worked. I have far better stat's since then. This past week.

Anyways on the 4 range chart that ma is the "wilder" and I know from that point when a candle closes below that MA that I can have no greater than a 8 tick stop to see if what I thought was right or not. You can see from the pictures, and the one on the right in paticular, that candles are "way above" the 50 ema I have up. So the market was long, but at that point where it was, was overbought. I thought it was short, and I was right. But only using the 150 tick chart it becomes conffusing on where to get in. Look at this enough and you will know what I mean.

Anyhow thanks for responses, didn't think they would be so negative. But you get what you get I guess.

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  #206 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received


addchild View Post
You are going to continue to lose LOTS of trades with a stop that small, what matters is that you continue letting your profits run, which it looks like you're doing.

If you want to lose fewer trades, my advice would be to do some testing (in sim) with a larger stop, say 20 ticks, from there you can collect MAE data, and whittle your stop down from there.

But one thing to consider, a smaller dataset chart will not reduce the amount of risk associated with a trade, only your perception of it.

I want to mainly address this in your post

"But one thing to consider, a smaller dataset chart will not reduce the amount of risk associated with a trade, only your perception of it."

I disagree completely. You can not enter a long term chart from a short term chart perspective and expect to have any sucess, I've learned that, cant do it. Now I realize you probable haven't read this journal, so your post is limited in it's scope. But what I'm talking about is finding a better entry, that is the "same" everytime. And tha'ts what I have. From the point that the candle closes "below or above the wilder ma" I know that I have a stop at ten ticks set at first to allow for any slippage. I move it to 7 or 8 quickly if their was no slippage. I also now know that from that "point" my expected target is three times what my risk is.

Now if your looking at my pictures and seeing every MACD cross, and everytime price closes above or below the Wilder MA and thinking I'm taking all those, well that's not the case. You'd get killed. I define a trade setup on the 150 tick chart, and the entry on the 4range chart.

Anyways I want to make that distinction

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  #207 (permalink)
Bay Area California
 
Experience: None
Platform: TT T4
Broker: Phillip Capital
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 795 since Nov 2011
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Upupandaway View Post
I want to mainly address this in your post

"But one thing to consider, a smaller dataset chart will not reduce the amount of risk associated with a trade, only your perception of it."

I disagree completely. You can not enter a long term chart from a short term chart perspective and expect to have any sucess, I've learned that, cant do it. Now I realize you probable haven't read this journal, so your post is limited in it's scope. But what I'm talking about is finding a better entry, that is the "same" everytime. And tha'ts what I have. From the point that the candle closes "below or above the wilder ma" I know that I have a stop at ten ticks set at first to allow for any slippage. I move it to 7 or 8 quickly if their was no slippage. I also now know that from that "point" my expected target is three times what my risk is.

Now if your looking at my pictures and seeing every MACD cross, and everytime price closes above or below the Wilder MA and thinking I'm taking all those, well that's not the case. You'd get killed. I define a trade setup on the 150 tick chart, and the entry on the 4range chart.

Anyways I want to make that distinction

Meh, I think my point may have been lost. What I was saying was this: Decreasing the time frame (range, data set, whatever your poison) of your chart, will not likely decrease the amount of stop outs you realize in your trading.

What I was suggesting is that you learn the amount of risk that the market attributes to your edge, you may find that you can either increase or decrease your stop to add some efficiency to your edge.


.
 
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  #208 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received


addchild View Post
Meh, I think my point may have been lost. What I was saying was this: Decreasing the time frame (range, data set, whatever your poison) of your chart, will not likely decrease the amount of stop outs you realize in your trading.

What I was suggesting is that you learn the amount of risk that the market attributes to your edge, you may find that you can either increase or decrease your stop to add some efficiency to your edge.



The smaller time frame I have added has nothing to do with with trying to have fewer stop outs. It only has to do with having a smaller stop once I see a trade set up. And thats what I have now. A initial stop of 10 ticks reduced to 8 quickly if their was no slippage. I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I think you thought I was trying to figure out how to be stopped out less, and thats not what the post was about...

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  #209 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Ok adding a 4range chart helped. Didnt solve the over all problem. I was listening to Trader71's vieod's the other night for like the 20 time, and it occured to me to have a scenario list. If this happens then I'll probable do this. If that happens then I'll do this. Of course I go over the prior day and take in to account the over night trading.

So I have a list of questions

what if " it Gaps up" what will I do?
what if it Gaps up but it's not significant what will I do?

Also

Gaps I decide not to play what will I do?
Late Day trades
Times not to trade

This is all built around the IB. I am able to with alot of frequency get trades to them, off them and trend trades from them right. I over trade, I know it now. More than just having a set of rules, I have a "to do list" for different scenario's, that always include the IB. It worked good today. Helped me keep my mind in focus, instead of just wandering "looking" for a trade. I was looking for a trade in the right area's. I've posted a picture

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  #210 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received


Three trades today Monday Sept 17

Last week i had a disasterous day. Was due to "MA's" on my 5 minute chart being long, and prices being short on my entry chart. I got conffused. So...I have a different persptective now on price and failed "swings". So I focused on the making of, or the failure of swings. Combine that with everything else and that worked out really well.

Ok so it made that swing low, made another 700
Picture update is the 5 minute chart

See on the prior day the 5 minute chart how it can get conffusing. Looks long then goes short. So I hope that focusing on the swings, and failure of swings will help me with that and keeping it straight. Did today.

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February 6, 2013


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