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A CL Trading Journal

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  #101 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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  #102 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
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Yaup thanks for that. I've never heard of them. I'm going to email amp and tell them that, because they "say" they will match or beat any price.

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  #103 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Tuesday, June 12 2012 Plus 550 dollars

Well I won all my trades today. So that's good. More so I did what I'd hoped I'd do once going "live". And that is pay way more attention to what I was doing, and not make silly mistakes, and read the market "well". I placed a yellow circle on the chart I'm talking about below. It really sold off pretty good in here. Their was a gap below, and you would think if it was going to hold it wouldn't sell off like that. Of course anything is possible, but once it got all over the MA's and starting closing below them, I thought short was right.

So three "pull backs"
and two "BTMAT"

So for today I'm done. I'm done for the "week" if I want to. I'll judge that based on where it opens tomorrow.

Oh one more thing. The last trade their, I picked it pretty good. What happened was this. I was already up good, and very content. The first hour of trading wasn't over yet so the IB wasn't in yet. I was willing to wait to see what would happen. If it made the gap without me, then it just did. I didn't think it would continue down today, so I thought if I missed that, I might get a long later on. But it happened that it went right when the IB was in. Anyways....helped to wait to the IB was in

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  #104 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
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Wednesday, June 13 plus 163.28

I'm very tired, this was a little war here today. I did good though, I had the same results as when i paper trade. It was unfourtunate that I didn't get alot of that big move up. At that point I had 3 contracts long, I was down -440 dollars. It was like 9:05 and the oil inventory would be coming out at 9:30. I've seen it act goofy before about that time and took what I had. Which was almost back to break even. I didn't go long any of that big move up, because it all happened to close to the Oil inventory. Was just to damn risky to do.

So thats all for this week. My account will read tomorrow 7810.4. I'm not sure exactly why, but for some reason the account balance is off until after they send out the nightly reports. It was yesterday, and corrected itself (like my broker said it would). So whatever, long as it corrects itself. I worked it up with commisions and all and it should read tomorrow 7810.4

I will type more later, this was draining a bit today, no alot.

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  #105 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Well since going live looks like everyones' gone away lol. Oh well.

Ok I worked up what I did today Wednesday June 13 2012.

(See first picture and second picture)

So for the first picture you can see my mistakes. That second trade should not of happened. The third trade was to soon, I've drawn a little yellow line to where it should of been, as well as the third and fourth. I'd of still been knocked out of that third trade their. However had I entered correctly on the fourth trade the fifth would of never happened. So that's two trades that wouldn't of been, one of which cost 150 dollars. Now all of this is happening because of picture 2.

I'm trying to trade back to the white moving average on the 5 minute chart. I thought it would go further than the moving average. Because their was support below, and if it was going to be going down and through it...well...it should be doing it. But it wasn't. So that's that.

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  #106 (permalink)
iTrade2golf
Nashville, TN
 
 
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Upupandaway View Post
Well since going live looks like everyones' gone away lol. Oh well.

Ok I worked up what I did today Wednesday June 13 2012.

(See first picture and second picture)

So for the first picture you can see my mistakes. That second trade should not of happened. The third trade was to soon, I've drawn a little yellow line to where it should of been, as well as the third and fourth. I'd of still been knocked out of that third trade their. However had I entered correctly on the fourth trade the fifth would of never happened. So that's two trades that wouldn't of been, one of which cost 150 dollars. Now all of this is happening because of picture 2.

I'm trying to trade back to the white moving average on the 5 minute chart. I thought it would go further than the moving average. Because their was support below, and if it was going to be going down and through it...well...it should be doing it. But it wasn't. So that's that.

Can you identify EXACTLY why the trades should not have happened. Being very specific will help you to mentally focus and remove some of the ambiguities over time.

I still see some trades in your day that are not in your system you described and are definitely counter trend trades. CL gaped down on the open and it looks as if you went long as you thought it was trying to fill the gap. Are you working to be a trend trader or a counter trend trader or both. I would DEFINITELY tell you to pick one and perfect it first before trying the other.

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  #107 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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ITrade2Golf

Right I figured if anyone would point this out you would. I need to better describe what I have in my head. I have new rules typed up, but I've not posted them here. Not new trades, even not new rules. I've not changed my trades. I have gone back in and explained my ruless better I think. And yes I know exactly what I did wrong, and exactly what I should of done. I was too early on the entries, which casued an unnecesary loss.

Since it's late now I wont go in depth about why I did what I did, and how it is in my plan. But I will tomorrow. Thanks for the question. I didn't really bother with explaining it to much, I dont think many are following this. But it's not for them, it's for me...so yes I'll do that tomorrow...explain better. Thanks

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  #108 (permalink)
iTrade2golf
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Upupandaway View Post
ITrade2Golf

Right I figured if anyone would point this out you would. I need to better describe what I have in my head. I have new rules typed up, but I've not posted them here. Not new trades, even not new rules. I've not changed my trades. I have gone back in and explained my ruless better I think. And yes I know exactly what I did wrong, and exactly what I should of done. I was too early on the entries, which casued an unnecesary loss.

Since it's late now I wont go in depth about why I did what I did, and how it is in my plan. But I will tomorrow. Thanks for the question. I didn't really bother with explaining it to much, I dont think many are following this. But it's not for them, it's for me...so yes I'll do that tomorrow...explain better. Thanks

I am trying to keep you on point to reach your goal of becoming a trader. You do not have to put it down in this journal but you should have your rules written down exactly along with some screenshots. So when you make a mistake you can annotate it and write that trade down to also refer to later. I don't have to understand it, but you should know it without hesitation and it should be exact.

I follow this each day that I have time, trying to pass on the help that was passed to me many years ago from my mentor.

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  #109 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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June 15 2012 First week Live +847.24

Ok I traded today, which is tomorrow when I type this up. 2:58 in the morning, and of course I'm looking at charts lol. I thought because of the ETH which got up to 84.80 it might go go go, but was not to be. I'm proud of what I did this week, it was good. I'm also proud that I'm not jumping up and down, like a kid that just won the lottery.

I did lose today 97.40. I had five trades. You can see from the pictures what happened. I consider this very, very, very, very good. Very good....excellent. Didn't try and make it back, or anything, just stopped. I beat my goal of making 500 a week on 1 contracts, by about 347 dollars.

This week I believe would of been better, but their where always the problems with getting it up and running. I didn't get all of Monday, because I was getting it setup. So the major move I missed out on. Paper traded it and did fine. So... thats good.

Looking foward to next week.

Oh on my pictures the P stands for paper trade. All the rest are live trades. Also I have MP up, and I only have two pictures showing the same thing because I want people to know, that I do use it. So if someone is trying to find their way in all this mess, they might be helped. I really dont think you can do without it. It can be done without it of course. But I do believe it's far better. I mean they cant manipulate that. It's not ever gonna "read wrong". Its by far the best tool I have, that I must understand more about.

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  #110 (permalink)
iTrade2golf
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I was wondering why you would not take the first trade off the MA's, this can be the biggest move.

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  #111 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Yah you bet had I been sitting here I'd of been all on that. Whish I had been. Unfortunately I had gone to have blood drawn at my doctors because my "liver ezymes" where a little high, for a medicine I take. But ya, I saw that when I came back. Get em next time.

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  #112 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Upupandaway View Post
Private trader. I agree with you. But dang, you gotta know where those areas are. I dont know how you can know about something that a person is going to do, before they do it? Like the dominate players. How can you know what they are going to do before they do it and you see the reaction to it? Just saying.....

Wonderful things happen with price at or near supply and demand zones. Just wait for price to go there and make your move there, everything else in between is noise.

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  #113 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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I've seen this so many times. Up till about an hour ago I thought this was going to open "up" in the morning. But I think it will test that trend line. Of course anything could happen, but something to hold in the back of my head as a possibility. See tomorrow. Falling as I type this. Over night got up as high as 85.60 from the close of Friday which was 84.03 pretty big. Anyways see tomorrow.

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  #114 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Private Banker

Hey their, I was wondering what you thought about the picture I have below. I was going to email you this, but I think your getting alot of people emailing you. I dont want to be a bother. So just whenever, even if it's tomorrow or the next, let me know what you think about what I've written on the picture below. All the best!

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  #115 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
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Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
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Upupandaway View Post
Private Banker

Hey their, I was wondering what you thought about the picture I have below. I was going to email you this, but I think your getting alot of people emailing you. I dont want to be a bother. So just whenever, even if it's tomorrow or the next, let me know what you think about what I've written on the picture below. All the best!

Sure. Based on what I'm seeing in the composite you have there, it's pretty clear. There have been several attempts to push the market lower to no avail. By doing so, the market has built a solid base at the lower end of the composite distribution that could be very supportive going forward. I guess the key will be where do we open tomorrow (Monday) morning? If we open above and come down to test that strong base, I would be looking for a long however, if we open way above Friday's close and we line up with a resistance area, I'd be interested in taking the short down into that composite's base to see if there are still buyers down there. If so, look to exit my short and look for a potential long up and out of that area.

Anyway, not trading/investment advice by any means but just some of my own thoughts. Also, these are just broad ideas and would bring them down into intra-day price areas to lean off of to establish a position. As always, follow your own rules and risk parameters. I offer these thoughts to help you in your visual of the market with the hope that you can develop something with your own preferences.

Cheers,
PB

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  #116 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Yah ok thanks for the thoughts. I understand, I'm using my own rules and pulling the trigger based on what I think. I've just been so unsure about how exactly to use this. So you have helped make that more clear, thanks

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  #117 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Man this has gone way further than I thought it would. Way further.

Thats a picture of the over night session. I thought today "if" it went down, it would hit that first trendline their. But just got up and it's already down at that second one. Its done alot of work in the over night session.

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  #118 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
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Ok I'm done. Plus 671.64 7 trades


So this thing did of course the exact opposite of what I thought it would today. Sold of huge over night session. So ok I wanted to go long when it did open up. So all my trades where in that direction. Mainly because the daily lowest swing low, was right their. When it did get their, no sellers. Also the VPOC didn't move to the low, could go back to it, which it did.

First chart shows my trades. Second and third chart show what price did before it moved up. Moved down, and VPOC didn't go dow with it. Then price moved back up to VPOC. Money...lol. So that's good. I'm glad I did what I was supposed to do, done good.

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  #119 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Check this out, this is great.... Price went up, VPOC didn't change, then price came back to VPOC. That's good...thats great...Well it's not their yet, and looks like VPOC is starting to change, I see it getting more red just above where it currently is. It's also right on the IB High "Yellow line". But good enough to make money with...

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  #120 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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I'm thinking and of course this depends on where it opens, but if it opens where it is, I'd look to the gap that's up and the naked VPOC just above it as a target. Right now it's at 82.91. If it gaps down, I'll look for buyers, and any sign of it to get long. I think long is right. But we just have to wait and see if the market does that or not.

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  #121 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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June 19 2012 -575.76

Well today I lost more than I wanted, and did things I shouldn't of. Bummer. I had up a chart I dont ever use, took trades off if (for things I thought I saw). Thats the meat of it. So that's not in my plan, so I'm going to get back to trade my plan tomorrow.

Thankful that I didn't let it become a disaster like I used to. Gives me a some hope that maybe, provided I can stick to my game plan, I can do this. Still up for the week 136 dollars about. So hopefully this will become a lesson learned and not one I'll revisit anytime soon.

O and also I had the wrong contract up at first.

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  #122 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
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Well pretty bummed out. I lost 3500 dollars today. My account now reads "4152.80". Forgive me for not posting the charts, or any stats. I just can't see the point now. So...this will be my last post for this. I do not know what I'm doing, I mean as trading is concerned, what I do doesn't work. Though it did, decieved myself into thinking so. I really thought I wouldn't do this "AGAIN".

My plan was poor. Thought it was good. I definitely know different now.

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  #123 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
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Upupandaway View Post
Well pretty bummed out. I lost 3500 dollars today. My account now reads "4152.80". Forgive me for not posting the charts, or any stats. I just can't see the point now. So...this will be my last post for this. I do not know what I'm doing, I mean as trading is concerned, what I do doesn't work. Though it did, decieved myself into thinking so. I really thought I wouldn't do this "AGAIN".

My plan was poor. Thought it was good. I definitely know different now.

I am very sorry about your account.

If you decide that you still want to be a trader, here is my advice:

a) Close your futures account.
b) Open a spot forex account, $500.
c) Trade currencies at $0.10 cents a pip. You can set appropriate stops and still trade less than 1% of your capital.
d) Don't try to "make back" your losses. Just focus on turning a profit, based on percentages. Forget the dollars for a while.

Do this for a while. Realistically, you may need to re-fund the $500 account a few times before you finally have sufficient experience to turn a profit. But if you keep risk at 1% per trade and limit to two or three trades a day, at least a $500 account should last you a while.

I also encourage you to keep posting to the journal. Don't worry so much about chart stats on entries and exits, it's more about why you entered, and why you exited. You need to try to write down the elements that made up your trading decision, so that when you are reviewing your journal in a week or two, you can look for patterns.

You will notice patterns for winners, and patterns for losers. They will likely be very surprising and be the opposite of what you would expect (ie: the trades you feel the most certain about will be the losers, it turns out).

I also hope you'll take a few days and read through this thread:


The thread is a gold mine. You can see the common mistakes people are making over and over, and hopefully formulate some of your own ideas on how to avoid them.

Take a break, gather your thoughts, and decide how you want to proceed. And if you decide that trading is not for you, then good for you. Most cannot be so honest with themselves. Trading is not for everyone, yet everyone thinks they can beat the odds. There is no shame in admitting trading is not for you.

Mike

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  #124 (permalink)
 Vikings1 
Minneapolis, MN, USA
 
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Upupandaway View Post
Well pretty bummed out. I lost 3500 dollars today. My account now reads "4152.80". Forgive me for not posting the charts, or any stats. I just can't see the point now. So...this will be my last post for this. I do not know what I'm doing, I mean as trading is concerned, what I do doesn't work. Though it did, decieved myself into thinking so. I really thought I wouldn't do this "AGAIN".

My plan was poor. Thought it was good. I definitely know different now.

Upupandaway, I am willing to help you, drop me a private e-mail and let's chat. It hurts to read what you wrote and I too was once there. But first off, takes Big Mike's advice and stop trading. Feel free to look at my journal and you decide.

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  #125 (permalink)
 ericbrown 
Tulsa, OK
 
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@Upupandaway - sorry to hear about your account.

Take Big Mike's advice and stop trading. Stop immediately. I've been in your shoes and have fought back to where I can now say I'm a consistent trader. An outcome of that consistency is that I'm now profitable.

How did I do it? I stopped trading. I took all the 'stuff' from my charts and decided to start from scratch. I revisited my 'system' and realized it wasn't MY system but someone else's. So I started over and rebuilt my system with my rules to ensure i know exactly what i'm doing.

Go back to the basics and start a sim account or do as @Big Mike says and trade Forex. Do this until you can rebuild your confidence and until you are consistent.

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  #126 (permalink)
iTrade2golf
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Upupandaway View Post
Well pretty bummed out. I lost 3500 dollars today. My account now reads "4152.80". Forgive me for not posting the charts, or any stats. I just can't see the point now. So...this will be my last post for this. I do not know what I'm doing, I mean as trading is concerned, what I do doesn't work. Though it did, decieved myself into thinking so. I really thought I wouldn't do this "AGAIN".

My plan was poor. Thought it was good. I definitely know different now.

I know it hurts to lose over 40% of your account in one day. This is one of the things I warned you about. People say you can't get rich without taking risk. HOWEVER you can control the amount of risk you take. Trading 3 contracts on CL with only $7000 is too much risk for most people. I would say to you to reevaluate your methods and money management along with your discipline.

Today on CL was a great day, you should have made a killing shorting CL from the NY open until lunch time. My associates called Oil short right after the open and we all jumped on it, I never took one single long trade today on CL up until lunch.

I am pretty sure that if you honestly evaluate yourself today, you probably did the same mistakes today as previously. I even wonder if you took bigger positions than 3 contracts and also traded against the trend and over traded. I say this without even seeing what you have to say because this is what most inconsistent traders do.

This business is not too be taken lightly, there are hard rules that you should never break. This is a business that is built one brick at a time and not a get rich quick scheme. When you think you are too good and you break the hard rules then it is not if but when you get bitten.

Also as Big Mike said trading is not for everyone. So you have to decide right now if you can do the things that have to be done to last in this business or if you think you can fly above it all and do it anyway you want. If you notice I kept saying the same things to you each time and those are the important things. If you want help then keep this journal going and learn to trade with consistency.

I can give you advice, however you will not like what I have to say because I will say what you need to hear not what you want to hear.

This is a point in your trading life where you have to decide right now if you can make the changes that will make you a trader or if you still think this is some easy game that allows you to work 60 mins a day and be on easy street.

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  #127 (permalink)
 Hapster 
San Diego, California
 
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Big Mike View Post
I am very sorry about your account.

If you decide that you still want to be a trader, here is my advice:

a) Close your futures account.
b) Open a spot forex account, $500.
c) Trade currencies at $0.10 cents a pip. You can set appropriate stops and still trade less than 1% of your capital.
d) Don't try to "make back" your losses. Just focus on turning a profit, based on percentages. Forget the dollars for a while.

Do this for a while. Realistically, you may need to re-fund the $500 account a few times before you finally have sufficient experience to turn a profit. But if you keep risk at 1% per trade and limit to two or three trades a day, at least a $500 account should last you a while.

I also encourage you to keep posting to the journal. Don't worry so much about chart stats on entries and exits, it's more about why you entered, and why you exited. You need to try to write down the elements that made up your trading decision, so that when you are reviewing your journal in a week or two, you can look for patterns.

You will notice patterns for winners, and patterns for losers. They will likely be very surprising and be the opposite of what you would expect (ie: the trades you feel the most certain about will be the losers, it turns out).

I also hope you'll take a few days and read through this thread:


The thread is a gold mine. You can see the common mistakes people are making over and over, and hopefully formulate some of your own ideas on how to avoid them.

Take a break, gather your thoughts, and decide how you want to proceed. And if you decide that trading is not for you, then good for you. Most cannot be so honest with themselves. Trading is not for everyone, yet everyone thinks they can beat the odds. There is no shame in admitting trading is not for you.

Mike

Not to be, but that's probably the WORST advice to give this guy, Mike. I'm frankly surprised. The Forex guys will skin the last bits of that account he'll open with those spreads. Can't give any other great advice, but that's NOT what I would have suggested. But that's just me. We all find our way in this gig sooner or later. It's all part of the learning process. Good luck, Up.

H

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  #128 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Hapster View Post
Not to be, but that's probably the WORST advice to give this guy, Mike. I'm frankly surprised. The Forex guys will skin the last bits of that account he'll open with those spreads. Can't give any other great advice, but that's NOT what I would have suggested. But that's just me. We all find our way in this gig sooner or later. It's all part of the learning process. Good luck, Up.

H

It's ridiculous to say that it's the worst advice to give. Yes of course there are bad forex dealers out there. Do a bit of homework, and use a reputable dealer that fits your needs. You can find spreads less than or equal to CME FX spreads and use an ECN. But I am not trying to make this a futures vs forex debate thread, you are free to start a new thread and debate that in the Broker section of the forum.

The whole point of my recommendation is that Futures is the wrong instrument class for a beginner. Crude Oil is even more wrong. Multiple contracts of Crude is the worst sin.

There is no need to risk larger amounts that would be required for equities or futures until you can turn a profit on the $500 account.

Mike

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  #129 (permalink)
 Hapster 
San Diego, California
 
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And also, Up, nothing wrong with PAPER TRADING the HELL out of your system till you are CONSISTENT.... no LIVE trades till you are. We've all been where you're at in different levels.

H

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  #130 (permalink)
 fibfisherman 
Australia
 
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@Upupandaway

Sorry to hear about your day mate. It was funny how strongly I felt your pain reading your post as I have been there and had days like that.

If on review you decide that you are going to stick with this I strongly second Big Mike's recommendation of trading spot FX with micro lots and 10c pip risk. SIM has it's place but can be a trap where you end up stuck there for years (been there).

If you take that path just do your research and find a reputable spot fx broker where the spreads arn't prohibitively large - they do exist.

And finally, remember trading is just trading - there're more important things in life. We are incredibly lucky to even get to make the choice to try trading at all.

Cheers,

FF

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  #131 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Wow...I didn't think I'd have any response to my post. Yah you guys are all right I was sitting here figuring out that I can still trade 4 contracts, and if the CL drops to that long over due gap...etc...etc...death!

I'm really glad I checked back here. Because I was going to trade tomorrow. Even though I knew intellectually that would be the worst thing to do. It still stings, but I know it would be so much worse if I lost another 3000, or more tomorrow. I know now I'm not going to do it, trade live tomorrow that is.

Thanks to all who responded. You all gave me some much need mental relief, and options...which I was blind to see at the time.

ITrade2golf, yes you did warn me...you sure did

I welcome any advice...any!

Thank you

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  #132 (permalink)
 avall38486 
Dallas, Texas
 
Experience: Intermediate
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UpUpandaway,

I went through your journal and charts. There is no a reason for you to fail. You received excellent advice from several traders. Towards the end of May and early June, PandaWarrior and iTradeToGolf, gave you great recommendations. Pandawarrior even re-drew the areas where you should have entered on YOUR own charts.
You trade about on the average of 10 trades a day (3 days to trade/week per your plan) and want to make $500/week. Here we have a bad situation, Bad math or lack of vision. If you trade 30 trades per week and pull only 3 cents of each CL trade, that is that should be maling $900 per week (30 x $30) (excluding commissions).

Think about this for a moment. How many times could you have made a 3 cent profit in a day ?? What is the probability to make 3 cents in crude oil on simple pull back trades? Now what is the probability of getting 10 to 30 cents out of a trade / or a swing in the direction of the trend? Obviously much lower.
Now, you have been trading multiple contracts without any clear exit strategy. With 3 cents fixed profit target, and trading only 2 contracts you will make $1800 weekly. What is wrong with that? With 3 contracts that should gross you $2700. And on and on and on…

Getting 3 cents in much easier, less stressful. Like itradetogolf said, money management is key.
There is also something missing on your charts. You need to get some arrows plotted automatically on your chart with a sound alarm, to draw your attention to the trade. Something like Perry’s indicators here on futures.io (formerly BMT). Only trade in the direction of the trend. Practice, practice and practice. Wnen you are comfortable, then look for countertrend trades.

GO back to trading and never give up. You have gone through half the battle. Re-write clear rules, AND put them on an index card next to your screen, then get some arrows and alarms plotted on the chart, take consistent SMALL profits. STOP Telling the market where it needs to go. GET your act together.

I do not mean to be harsh, but someone must tell you.

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  #133 (permalink)
 avall38486 
Dallas, Texas
 
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Also, Stay away from the opening GAPS and early session trading. There are lots of opportunities, the market will be there for another day to trade.
Best of luck.

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  #134 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Thank you Avall it's not harsh...and I feel that same way to, that I've fought a long way. I think in some werid way that makes me feel entitled to something?? Who knows but...I hear you, thanks for the post

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  #135 (permalink)
SteveH
Orlando, Florida, USA
 
 
Posts: 34 since Oct 2010
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Most beginners are only good enough to get 30-50% winners yet they want to pick methods of trading and contract management which demand 50-70% winning pcts in order to succeed. It's counter-intuitive to emotionally and intellectually accept that for you to be in a better position to "win" the game overall in your formative years, you can and should pick a method with a high recovery rate. Go to any forum, any website, any book and they all have a strong bias to show you a scalping system where the win rate is high and the gain per trade is low.

On your CL 150t chart, you *can* trade 3-6 contracts for 20-50 tick targets (from the initial entry) without ever risking more than $120 per attempt, never trading more than 1 contract per entry and never adding to a losing position. In fact, you can make 2K in less than 15 mins on occassion with still, only $120 of initial capital risk.

Your first step is an obvious one. You want too much confirmation to enter a trade and the cost in ticks you're willing to pay for this is too high. You're demonstrating trade after trade fading on you because you're consistently late. You have to get your average stop loss down to 7 ticks. Sometimes you will risk 10 ticks or 5 ticks but you should have it converging around 7 in the long-term.

With a 7 tick avg loss, you can clearly see from a plain 150t chart that there are 15 to 20 tick moves all over the place. However, right now, the majority of those moves are not possible for you to experience because you delay entry decisions.

What the problem is NOT is your decision to trade the CL. You have chosen the best contract on the planet to trade and for that you should be commended. You can recover from your mistakes more easily due to the wonderful moves it has with much more freedom of movement than the volatile yet much choppier TF e-mini.

This post is food for thought. It comes from a person who also trades the CL, yet expects to lose and lose often. Just ask yourself this question though:

If you had to accept that you were no better than picking 40% winners long-term, how can you still trade with a positive expectancy? Isn't this closer to the reality of your trading profile? And if it is, doesn't it make more sense to accept this and figure out a way to trade successfully in spite of it?

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  #136 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Hapster View Post
And also, Up, nothing wrong with PAPER TRADING the HELL out of your system till you are CONSISTENT.... no LIVE trades till you are. We've all been where you're at in different levels.

H

Sim trading is next to worthless in my opinion. Everyone makes money on sim. You need skin in the game, hence the $500 account as a place to start.

Mike

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  #137 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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SteveH View Post
What the problem is NOT is your decision to trade the CL. You have chosen the best contract on the planet to trade and for that you should be commended. You can recover from your mistakes more easily due to the wonderful moves it has with much more freedom of movement than the volatile yet much choppier TF e-mini.

Could not disagree more.

It is easy to say the methodology was to blame, and you need a different methodology in order to be successful.

But the truth is, you shouldn't be trading futures as a beginner. You shouldn't be trading oil as a beginner. And you shouldn't be trading multiple contracts.

Futures is the wrong instrument class to cut your teeth on. You cannot simply start trading futures and expect to find your way along the way unless you have incredibly deep pockets, and even then, you are just throwing money away.

You can hone your methodology skills, psychology, risk management and more on a smaller account elsewhere first. Then once you've proven you can successfully manage a small account, you can increase it to a larger account. Over time, you could move to futures - probably a few years after you start trading other products.

Mike

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  #138 (permalink)
 Gary 
Near Dallas, Texas, US
 
Experience: Advanced
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Big Mike View Post
Sim trading is next to worthless in my opinion. Everyone makes money on sim. You need skin in the game, hence the $500 account as a place to start.

Mike

I wouldn't say worthless, but before you feel the 'stress' of trading cash, you aren't even halfway to consistent success in my opinion.

SIM trading is good for testing ideas, and for helping to create habits which are beneficial when you begin to trade cash. Of course, most people abandon everything they learned on SIM, and fail to execute their setup which they spent so much time perfecting on SIM. Instead blaming the failure on everything but themselves. So, then they change indicators, charts, time frames, etc, and essentially throw away most of the hours spent on their system which worked great on SIM, but somehow failed to work on cash.

Once you are good trading SIM for a while, you should only focus on your execution of that system; and most of all, don't change anything. What are the odds you system worked on SIM for months, and then suddenly fails miserably when you trade live? Can't you see the only thing that changed was you? Work on finding out how you can better deal with the physiological changes that take place when you are now put under 'stress'. This is what is holding you back; your system is still good.

Of course, I generalize a bit, but you get the idea. Or do you?

Gary

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  #139 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Gary View Post
Or do you?

I do

I post similar things all the time. In my eyes, sim is next to worthless. It is for learning how to place orders in your platform more than anything else. Of course I always tell people to backtest and forward test their methodology. But the emphasis I was placing is on getting skin in the game, even at 10 cents a pip, because only once something is on the line will you start to develop the skills necessary as a trader to survive.

Not to pick on this guy, but he has done everything wrong in the eyes of positioning himself for success, instead of failure. In my view, 90% of this game is simply surviving. You need to be around long enough (years) in order to learn enough to have a shot at being successful.

What I see on an almost daily basis, is people who start by trading way too big, and then they are never willing to shift to a smaller instrument class or product or trade smaller size because they just focus on making back the money they've lost, instead of focusing on protecting the money they have left.

Rookies ask how much money they can make, veterans ask how much money they can lose.

Mike

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  #140 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Can you post the chart you lost the money on along with the trades and the size of those trades?

As to the size, trading 4 lots on CL is madness with a sub $50,000 account. Can it be done. Of course, but not for a beginner.

I both agree and disagree with @Big Mike on his forex recommendation. CL is the best instrument in the world to trade. But at $10 a tick, you'd better be good with 4 lots. Otherwise, head over to forex.

I will say this, looking at your charts, I sometimes wonder if you are thinking about risk management.

I do believe sim is valuable. Its valuable for one thing in my opinion, developing confidence in your method. IF you do the same thing over and over in sim and prove to yourself it works, then implementing live on a forex account or perhaps on YM at $5 a tick will prove easier. Not easy, but easier.

But you have not developed confidence, you've not developed money management skills you can depend on day in and day out and you've demonstrated you do trade against the method that appears to be clear to everyone reading the thread.

This means you must stop trading live money. Take some time off, get your head straight, lay out a money management plan you will never deviate from. This money management plan should take into account a max risk of 2% of your account PER DAY and then choose an instrument that allows you to have correct stop placement in the context of risking a percentage of the 2% per trade. Then go to sim for a couple of weeks with the sole purpose of trading the method without deviation. If short below X MA, then never trade long in that context, etc....and abiding by your money management plan ruthlessly. If you can do that honestly, post it here every day, prove it to yourself....then go live on the chosen instrument. If you have an 8% drawdown for the month, stop trading. Start again next month with a 6% max monthly draw down and the same 2% per day stop.

It appears that you have $4000. That means you can risk $80 a day. If you risk 25% of that per trade, then you get to risk $20 per trade. You need to trade forex with that kind of risk available.

Look to make a percentage on your risk capital every day. Say 25-50%. So you risk up to $80 a day, try to make $20-40 a day at that point. Fifty percent return on your daily risk is good right? I think so. You do that consistently for a month, end of the month you made $800 risking only $80 a day. End of the month, you increase your risk to 2% of the new balance and start over.

I know its harsh but its something I wish I had heard at the beginning of my trading journey.

Good luck.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #141 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
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I just saw the recent posts. Sorry you had that downer of a day. I've had those before too when things went out of control. I'm just beginning to make progress on sticking to my stops and I also still have problems impulsively doubling down.

Here's a link to a great "intervention" video(audio) by FT71 Big Mike posted for me once.
FuturesTrader71 | Trader Analysis 2011-09-01

Just my 2c suggestions from my limited viewpoint. Try going back to 1 contract. If your account is too small then you could try soybeans or see if you have access to a mini-contract instrument through your broker. A rule of thumb is 1 contract per 20 or 10k. 1 contract per 5k I'd consider the maximum risk of leverage personally. Also if you're an elite member, take a look at Gabriyele's "Videos you ought to see" links thread. Some great videos on psychology and money management by some of big names in trading there.

I don't quite agree sim is next to worthless. Sim can be used to explore and practice different methods and ideas. I think you need to revise your system until it works average 60 to 70% on sim or better. Even when I had runs on live at 60% or better there were days when it just didn't work due to a sloppy market, overintense competition, or low volume and HFT fakeouts. Some suggested goals to improve would not just be entries, but also a stop strategy such as B/E or profit preserving stop once the trade goes into profitability ,and what happens and whats the plan when a trade doesn't turn out positive right away.

Forex is ok. Some folks prefer trading and profiting on forex. But short time frame trading on forex may be prone to stop running and slippage shenanigans by the mostly unregulated Interbank. Maybe a longer time frame at least 5min can avoid that somewhat. TDAmeritrade's ThinkOrSwim offers forex trading, spread or commission based as well as trading anything else. Hope it turns out better for you.

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  #142 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Todays Friday June 22.

I traded to today "live" made about 320 dollars. Traded 1 contract.

The day prior on the 21 I traded live as well. Did well for a while. Well actually all day. I was trading 2 contracts, and was up 1200 dollars. I had lost one trade for 90 dollars. Near the end of the day, I tried entering long two different times and lost those. After those two loss's I was still up 20 dollars. So on the last trade I traded 3 contracts, didnt work out, lost 540 dollars. Which ended up being a loss of about 360 on the day. My account was now at 3,828.64 starting this morning that's where it was.

Pictures from that day below. Pictures from today June 22 in next post

Oh in the second picture, the first trade I can not say that was a mistake. But I think obviously I should of stopped their. And I know that also the last trade in the third picture was just...stupid...mistake...was a hoping! So..I know that was awful

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 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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I'm just going to post my charts. I traded 1 contract, all day.

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 Upupandaway 
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"But you have not developed confidence, you've not developed money management skills you can depend on day in and day out and you've demonstrated you do trade against the method that appears to be clear to everyone reading the thread. "

I'd like to know exactly what method that is that is clear to everyone? And since you didn't say, I'm wondering what you think the solution is, or should be?

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 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
"But you have not developed confidence, you've not developed money management skills you can depend on day in and day out and you've demonstrated you do trade against the method that appears to be clear to everyone reading the thread. "

I'd like to know exactly what method that is that is clear to everyone? And since you didn't say, I'm wondering what you think the solution is, or should be?



Quoting 
This is my trading plan

After the open I'll look for “Pull Backs” or “Back To Moving Average Trade” I also will be taking notice of the 5 minute chart what the volume is like and the mood of the market, from each 5 minute bar to the next. The way a 5 minute bar closes is important and will be considered accordingly.

My Setups

1. Buying or selling at the open: I will buy or sell at the open given there is sufficient momentum. Target two points. Stop is 15 ticks but to moved accordingly.

2. Pull Backs: Prices move to make a “New Low, or High” and pulls back at least 20 ticks. The MACD is above or below its zero line. The 50EMA has been the correct color for the intended trade direction. Background is green or red ideally.

3. Back To Moving Average Trade(BTMAT): Price is off the high or low and is closing inside the 50EMA. The target is the white 34EMA or 10 ticks. Stop is set to 14 ticks.

Well your're basically trading a moving average cross over method with your own filters and along with a lagging MACD. You're looking for pull backs with confirmation on price action from the MACD.

You also have a counter trend method that is looking for pull backs to the slower MA's.

Both of these are very valid trading methods. As you know, I am not a fan of the MACD for entry purposes. I think the MA's are plenty of confirmation. The last couple of posts the trading looks much better other than the longs that got stopped out. The rest looks pretty good. The MACD got you in trouble on those longs by the look of it. There were also a couple of short winners that happened long after price action said they could but were confirmed by the MACD. I think the entries were way late. Fortunately they worked.

The issue here is that many of your trades happen far away from the MA thereby negating the risk reduction of the pull back. Thats why I wonder about risk management.

This is pretty much the minor aspect of the issue. The issue is you're trading with to much risk for the size of your account assuming that's all the money you have allocated for risk capital. With a 15 tick stop and 1 lot, your risking 4% on every trade. You traded 2 lots. Thats 8% of your account risked per trade.....then 3 lots....11%....really? Most traders recommend no more than 2% per trade max and a more conservative is 2% per day and 25% of that per trade.

After these last two days, I am in complete agreement with @Big Mike on the recommendation to move to forex and trade micro lots until you can rebuild the account to a level that will allow you to trade CL with reasonable account risk. It is after all, one of the best instruments to trade.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
I'd like to know exactly what method that is that is clear to everyone? And since you didn't say, I'm wondering what you think the solution is, or should be?

I didn't answer this part. I trade a very similar system although the visual is very different and on a higher time frame but the principal is the same.

Here's a screenshot of trades that go against your method as i understand it.

I think the primary thing would be this, ditch the MACD at least for entry confirmation. Its often VERY late, use it later on as @Private Banker said for confirmation after the fact but if the trade is green, do you even need that?

Once you do this, you'll start seeing your entries clearer and you'll get in sooner. I marked a few for you earlier on and here is another one with the areas I would be getting in (I'm not saying I'm perfect here by any means, anyone can dissect a chart in hindsight). The primary thing here is price action is confirming the entry by virtue of minor level breaks after the pull back.


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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Upupandaway 
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In the below picture I dont see a pull back to any degree. I entered because I believed it was going to continue up before having a pull back to a greater degree. I kow the MACD is in conflict with what else is happening alot of the time. I try to remedy this by all the MA, and such.

I know I would like to get rid of the MACD, but it's what I use to signal a trade. If not the MACD then what? Whats your suggestion? Just price action? Change to 5 minute chart? Thanks

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  #148 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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What do you mean no reversion to the slow MA? Why I didn't take the trade?





PandaWarrior View Post
I didn't answer this part. I trade a very similar system although the visual is very different and on a higher time frame but the principal is the same.

Here's a screenshot of trades that go against your method as i understand it.

I think the primary thing would be this, ditch the MACD at least for entry confirmation. Its often VERY late, use it later on as @Private Banker said for confirmation after the fact but if the trade is green, do you even need that?

Once you do this, you'll start seeing your entries clearer and you'll get in sooner. I marked a few for you earlier on and here is another one with the areas I would be getting in (I'm not saying I'm perfect here by any means, anyone can dissect a chart in hindsight). The primary thing here is price action is confirming the entry by virtue of minor level breaks after the pull back.



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 JDNeeman 
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I think if you use stochastic with 3,9,3 settings will help you see when the market is ready to go up or down and align your trade with it.

I see you use tick charts, i use range charts but still works, i have attached an image showing your entries combined with the Momentum (stochastic).

Hope it helps.

Greetings,.


JDNeeman







PandaWarrior View Post
I didn't answer this part. I trade a very similar system although the visual is very different and on a higher time frame but the principal is the same.

Here's a screenshot of trades that go against your method as i understand it.

I think the primary thing would be this, ditch the MACD at least for entry confirmation. Its often VERY late, use it later on as @Private Banker said for confirmation after the fact but if the trade is green, do you even need that?

Once you do this, you'll start seeing your entries clearer and you'll get in sooner. I marked a few for you earlier on and here is another one with the areas I would be getting in (I'm not saying I'm perfect here by any means, anyone can dissect a chart in hindsight). The primary thing here is price action is confirming the entry by virtue of minor level breaks after the pull back.



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 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
In the below picture I dont see a pull back to any degree. I entered because I believed it was going to continue up before having a pull back to a greater degree. I kow the MACD is in conflict with what else is happening alot of the time. I try to remedy this by all the MA, and such.

I know I would like to get rid of the MACD, but it's what I use to signal a trade. If not the MACD then what? Whats your suggestion? Just price action? Change to 5 minute chart? Thanks

Ok, this isn't perfect but I have to run now and I won't be back rest of the weekend. By no means is this the only way to trade this but I think you get the idea. This is just one man's perspective.....


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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Big Mike 
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Upupandaway View Post
Todays Friday June 22.

I traded to today "live" made about 320 dollars. Traded 1 contract.

The day prior on the 21 I traded live as well. Which ended up being a loss of about 360 on the day. My account was now at 3,828.64 starting this morning that's where it was.

You've been given some good advice [stop trading futures, stop trading oil], it is now up to you whether you want to follow it, or if you want to continue to think you are better than that.

Enjoy your weekend,

Mike

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  #152 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
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Upupandaway View Post
Todays Friday June 22.

I traded to today "live" made about 320 dollars. Traded 1 contract.

The day prior on the 21 I traded live as well. Did well for a while. Well actually all day. I was trading 2 contracts, and was up 1200 dollars. I had lost one trade for 90 dollars. Near the end of the day, I tried entering long two different times and lost those. After those two loss's I was still up 20 dollars. So on the last trade I traded 3 contracts, didnt work out, lost 540 dollars. Which ended up being a loss of about 360 on the day. My account was now at 3,828.64 starting this morning that's where it was.

Pictures from that day below. Pictures from today June 22 in next post

Oh in the second picture, the first trade I can not say that was a mistake. But I think obviously I should of stopped their. And I know that also the last trade in the third picture was just...stupid...mistake...was a hoping! So..I know that was awful

Do you mind if I chime in here? @PandaWarrior pointed me over here with the mention and finally had a chance to full read through all of this.

I'm always happy to help out but it's important that you listen and at least consider what I have to say. And this may sound harsh but if you were at a prop firm or an institutional trade desk or fund you would be barred from trading until you can show you are in the right frame of mind and can show an improvement in your trading and risk management. Losing around 40% of your capital in one day would probably get you canned.

Where do I start here... First and foremost, I'm going to outline some ideas for you to put into consideration that should be implemented immediately. But I want to make sure this is money that you can afford to lose. If you're depending on making this "happen", then maybe look to build your account equity up more through other sources of income.

1. Establish a maximum stop out amount you can have before shutting your order entry platform down for the day. Feel free to continue trading in SIM if you want to but no more live trades. You simply aren't seeing the market correctly and need to step back and analyze the situation.

2. Your account is now below the required margin amount for a full CL contract (without your brokers leverage), do you think it's a wise idea to continue to trade that market? I'd recommend risking no more than 2% - 3% of your account equity on each trade. So for a $3,800 account 3% = $114. The minimum amount I can say one could risk is $150/contract on CL. And that's an extremely tight stop that will get hit more often than not. In this volatility, 20 - 25 ticks seems to be doable although still tight. So, $200/$3800 = ~5%, $250/$3800 = ~7%. No more CL for you!

Alternatively, if you like CL so much, trade 1 mini-CL contract (QM). 20 ticks in CL works out to be roughly 8 ticks in QM which will give you a risk per trade amount of $100 (plus commissions). QM's tick structure is similar to ES' but has full fungibility to CL.

Of course there are other markets to trade. The NQ has a much smaller tick size. There's also the Micro EUR/USD which has a tick size of $1.25. Hey, you're not going to become wealthy trading these smaller markets but it's not about making money in trading, it's about how much you can afford to lose! BTW, I'm not a fan of the off exchange FX markets. I'd recommend the CME Micro's markets over the Spot markets.

3. Before even touching your buy or sell button, establish key support and resistance levels that if anything you can lean on for the next trading day. I mentioned Market Profile levels in the past as levels to watch, you can also use the Gom volume profile tool as those levels can be very similar. Or simply look for key pivot levels.

4. Once you have a game plan in place, begin the day watching the open and get a feel for what is happening before doing anything. Once you see a key level being tested, implement your strategy from there.

5. Stop worrying about your PNL. Limit the number of trades you make per day. Say a max amount of 5 - 8 trades. This will teach you discipline. Win, lose or draw, you're using extreme discretion in what you're doing and effectively saving bullets for the next fight. You want to be able to come back tomorrow. Focus on your trading game plan for the day and that's it. DO NOT LOOK AT YOUR PNL! You already have a max loss amount which I would recommend being a number of stop outs vs. a monetary amount. If you reach your max stop amount amount, you're done. Otherwise keep trading and review your results at the end of the day, not during your trading. When traders track their PNL intra-day, they're building a psychological hurdle. Simply mark down your stop outs on a piece of paper or something and go from there.

6. I know a lot of people have been bashing this but I see the relevance in using SIM to get you comfortable with your new guidelines. When a pilot is learning to fly, they use a flight simulator to acclimate to their tools, processes and procedures which include risk controls, etc. There is no emotional risk there as it's a simulation but I think you can benefit from it. Practice your trading in SIM until you feel confident in leaning off key levels in your trading and become consistent in trading well. The money, will take care of itself but do not focus on it.

Adjust your SIM cash level and margin requirements to mirror what your current account equity is and treat it as if it's real. Be sure to add the commissions in as well if possible. If you blow out the account, obviously you're not ready to go live. Do this for a while fine tuning your method and risk management until you're consistent.

I again will stress that this will not emulate the stress of real trading but you have to build confidence.

7. Continue to journal your progress here on futures.io (formerly BMT). This will help in your confidence building and self-awareness. And be honest! If you blow up, explain what happened in detail.

8. Continue to educate yourself in trading, overall financial markets and the psychological aspects of trading.

I'm sure there's more but start with that for now. Remember this, successful trading does not happen in a short order. There are so many variables, it's very difficult to fully grasp in a short period of time.

I hope you find this helpful and you follow this. If you don't and you continue to trade CL, just know you're trading a very advanced market filled with professional traders with extensive knowledge and experience. Not to be pompous or anything but I trade this market and I will take your money away from you in short order. You need to really think again about what you're doing and attempt to right this situation you're in. There are so many people here on futures.io (formerly BMT) that will be willing to provide you with great, sound advice that you can benefit from. I hope you can realize this and take full advantage of what everyone is offering you.

Cheers,
PB

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 Private Banker 
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Oh, and one other thing. At the end of the day, it's not about the indicators or the method, it's about the execution and risk management. I could take a basic 5 minute chart and trade off Bollinger Band levels all day long and do extremely well. The difference isn't the indicator or method I'm using, it's simply the confidence and risk management I would have in place. So, don't get caught up in the indicator no indicator debate as it's pointless.

Trade what you know, learn it, live it and manage your risk.

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 PandaWarrior 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Ok, this isn't perfect but I have to run now and I won't be back rest of the weekend. By no means is this the only way to trade this but I think you get the idea. This is just one man's perspective.....

I said I wasn't coming back to the screen this weekend but I screwed up my screen shot and couldn't let it rest. Attached is a new screen shot with a text insert where I overshot the limits of my text capture box.

Its AN answer to; If the MACD isn't the trigger, what is?


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 Private Banker 
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Also, regarding the MP theory if that's someting you want to look further into, here's a basic TPO indicator to at least learn from. I'd recommend using the ETH session that allows you to see what the overnight session has done in addition to the previous day's RTH session. So if you chose to trade the QM (mini-CL), use the CL chart but have QM as your market being traded on your DoM. Same goes for the Micro EUR/USD (M6E). If you trade it, have the full size EUR/USD (6E) on your chart but have the micro set up on your DoM.

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 Upupandaway 
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Thanks for the posts.

My account on Saturday June 23 reads 3954.32.
Thursday before I traded live again it read 3634.60.

I think my performance on Thursday was good. Considering what has happened, it was good. The day after I lost 3800 dollars trading an absurd amount of contracts for my account size, I traded live again and was up 1200 dollars trading 2 contracts, till once again at the end of the day I did what I shouldn't do, and lost another 370 dollars.

I know everyone believes I should stop trading. Some think I should trade micro lots. I can tell you right now I'm not ever going to do that. That wont work for me, wont work for my pscyhe. I can aslo say Im not going to go back to paper trading. What I think is, is that I have to get over the hurdles with "live" money, or I'm not going to get over them at all. I'm not "trying" to make the money back. I tried that for two days last week, and blew more money. Then Thursday came around and I was like "Ok...slow down" and once I did that, I did good, for my system.

I'm not under the delusion I can trade multiple contracts anymore, atleast not now. I believe because it's been so few times I've traded live money, that staying trading is better for me than rolling back to something I've been doing for the last 9 years. I know had I not made those crticial mistakes, while maybe not "killing the markets daily" I'd definitely not be killing me account. I know now that my paper trading results are realistic, and can be achieved, just as a screw on my part is realistic and if responded to badly can be achieved. My remedy is to be more patient, because inpatience is what got me here in the first place.


I hope though I've decided to continue to trade, against advice that I will continue to recieve, much needed encouragment and advice from other members. I hope those members will continue to point out whatever they deem neccesary, to help me improve.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Private Banker View Post
Oh, and one other thing. At the end of the day, it's not about the indicators or the method, it's about the execution and risk management. I could take a basic 5 minute chart and trade off Bollinger Band levels all day long and do extremely well. The difference isn't the indicator or method I'm using, it's simply the confidence and risk management I would have in place. So, don't get caught up in the indicator no indicator debate as it's pointless.

Trade what you know, learn it, live it and manage your risk.

I cannot stress enough how fine this advise is.

Private Banker has been a tremendous help to me personally with my trading.

Likewise, Panda Warrior, and Big Mike and many others.

Suffice to say that I would never have been able to progress to the point I am now had it not been for these individuals, and for others too numerous to mention.

You would be well served to consider carefully their advise. (in other words, do what they say)

Unless you do, I dont beleive you can reasonably expect to receive any more advise, beyound what you already have received.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
Thanks for the posts.

My account on Saturday June 23 reads 3954.32.
Thursday before I traded live again it read 3634.60.

I think my performance on Thursday was good. Considering what has happened, it was good. The day after I lost 3800 dollars trading an absurd amount of contracts for my account size, I traded live again and was up 1200 dollars trading 2 contracts, till once again at the end of the day I did what I shouldn't do, and lost another 370 dollars.

I know everyone believes I should stop trading. Some think I should trade micro lots. I can tell you right now I'm not ever going to do that. That wont work for me, wont work for my pscyhe. I can aslo say Im not going to go back to paper trading. What I think is, is that I have to get over the hurdles with "live" money, or I'm not going to get over them at all. I'm not "trying" to make the money back. I tried that for two days last week, and blew more money. Then Thursday came around and I was like "Ok...slow down" and once I did that, I did good, for my system.

I'm not under the delusion I can trade multiple contracts anymore, atleast not now. I believe because it's been so few times I've traded live money, that staying trading is better for me than rolling back to something I've been doing for the last 9 years. I know had I not made those crticial mistakes, while maybe not "killing the markets daily" I'd definitely not be killing me account. I know now that my paper trading results are realistic, and can be achieved, just as a screw on my part is realistic and if responded to badly can be achieved. My remedy is to be more patient, because inpatience is what got me here in the first place.


I hope though I've decided to continue to trade, against advice that I will continue to recieve, much needed encouragment and advice from other members. I hope those members will continue to point out whatever they deem neccesary, to help me improve.

Well once again, this thread has forced me out of my weekend relaxation.

If you won't stop trading, then at least do this. Before you start trading again, at the minimum, establish a money management plan. It should include:

1. Max risk of your account you will risk each day.
2. Max risk per trade
3. Max number of trades
4. An equity trail stop. In other words, I am up $1200.00. What percentage of this am I willing to lose before I stop for the day.
5. At what level of profit will I add another contract?

Once you have this in place. Post it here on bottom of the very first post of the thread so the rest that care to continue following your journey can see it plainly.

Next, after each day of trading, post your results. Not the NT summary tab but the trade tab. The one that details the entry and exits along with the date and time stamp as well as the cumulative totals. This will give you some accountability to the forum and it will force you to be honest with yourself in context of your trading plan and money management.

Consider ditching the MACD. I promise you it is doing more harm than good as an entry tool. As @Private Banker said, its not the indicators that do you in, its execution and money management, but the MACD is not an entry method if you are already using moving averages to time entries.....think about what a MACD actually is, do you really need it?

Ok, I'm done now. Good luck. I look forward to seeing your money management plan.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #159 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I cannot stress enough how fine this advise is.

Private Banker has been a tremendous help to me personally with my trading.

Likewise, Panda Warrior, and Big Mike and many others.

Suffice to say that I would never have been able to progress to the point I am now had it not been for these individuals, and for others too numerous to mention.

You would be well served to consider carefully their advise. (in other words, do what they say)

Unless you do, I dont beleive you can reasonably expect to receive any more advise, beyound what you already have received.

Yah I think thats good advice too. Tells us that this is not really in the indicators right.

I hope what you suggest isn't true. However it would seem that it is, and even from the start of this journal. I've only heard from most "after" I had the blow up. Everyone likes a good blow up though, lot's of suggestions. But I got very few on the days when I was growing my account. When I had it up to 7998 dollars after only a week of trading. And to be honest I was surprised I hadn't heard from people on days when I grew my account, that seemed odd to me. So like you are suggesting, I agree, that would be par for the course. But still I hope it's not true, thanks for the post

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  #160 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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1. I'm going to risk 400 a day at most.
2. I'm going to risk at the start of the trade 17 ticks, which will be moved to 12 ticks after the first bar from entry closes.
3. 10 at most, max number of trades
4. I'm not willing to lose anymore than 150 dollars once I'm up for the day. If that happens I'll stop
5. I'll add another contract at 10,000, or possible sonner. This will depend soley on my performace more than my account size. I should win, "IF" I do what I know is right. So if I can prove to myself that I can becomed disciplined enough to do what is "right"...then I would trade 2 contracts at 8000.


I want to ditch the MACD. But I'm not going to change anything while I'm trading live. I agree with you about all the points you have made, and it does need to find it's way off my charts. I do not think that should be while I trade live. I've proven to myself I can make money with what I got, also that I can destroy it if I mess it up. If I got rid of the MACD now, I wouldn't know what to use to enter trades with. But I hear you...and I'm working on it. Any suggestions.

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  #161 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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I'd like to also point out, that since I've said I'm going to trade live...I've only heard from two people, one of which was his very first post, you. This is the first time I've heard from you, you say you have been helped by these guys, I believe you. How about spreading around what you know....I guess thats my view point on that. I mean it is my account, my money, and this is my decision. I think if other members choose not to help me because I'm trading " my money"....that, that is.....not cool. But to each his own. But like I said in the last post, I heard from very few people when I was doing good. Then it like stoped all together, posts I mean, when I was winning, and doing good...why would that be? You would think that would be when a person would want to encourage someone. " Hey your doing good, or Hey I see this, correct it"....right? No....? Who knows. But I appreciate every bit of advice I've been given.....

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  #162 (permalink)
 avall38486 
Dallas, Texas
 
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Upupandaway,

I am by no means a trading expert. But I learned to trade the least number of contracts till my excecutions, exits and money risk management are NEAR PERFECT.

With your account size, and trading style, you SHOULD NOT trade more than ONE contract at a time, EVEN if your account size reaches $10,000. Why would you put a $ number at which you will add a contract ?? and you trading is not perfected yet. Your losses will be 1/2 of what you are experiencing at the present moment. That extra money that you will be saving will carry you longer and keep you in the trading career longer


Now, if you want to add contracts, do it by adding a contract to an existing PROFITABLE position (called pillaring not pyramiding) , only after securing the first position with a profitable stop loss. This may have a tremendous effect on your emotions.

Upupandaway, trading is about making money, WITH the CORRECT WAY to make money, that is suitable to your personality.

Again, this what I learned in over fifteen years.

Amin

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  #163 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
1. I'm going to risk 400 a day at most.
2. I'm going to risk at the start of the trade 17 ticks, which will be moved to 12 ticks after the first bar from entry closes.
3. 10 at most, max number of trades
4. I'm not willing to lose anymore than 150 dollars once I'm up for the day. If that happens I'll stop
5. I'll add another contract at 10,000, or possible sonner. This will depend soley on my performace more than my account size. I should win, "IF" I do what I know is right. So if I can prove to myself that I can becomed disciplined enough to do what is "right"...then I would trade 2 contracts at 8000.


I want to ditch the MACD. But I'm not going to change anything while I'm trading live. I agree with you about all the points you have made, and it does need to find it's way off my charts. I do not think that should be while I trade live. I've proven to myself I can make money with what I got, also that I can destroy it if I mess it up. If I got rid of the MACD now, I wouldn't know what to use to enter trades with. But I hear you...and I'm working on it. Any suggestions.

The only way it will come off is to just take it off. Like a band aid on a hairy arm. Just rip it off. It only hurts for a minute. Then just pay attention to what price is doing around your MA's. You'll be fine.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #164 (permalink)
iTrade2golf
Nashville, TN
 
 
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Upupandaway View Post
Thanks for the posts.

I hope though I've decided to continue to trade, against advice that I will continue to recieve, much needed encouragment and advice from other members. I hope those members will continue to point out whatever they deem neccesary, to help me improve.


Upupandaway View Post

I welcome any advice...any!

Thank you


iTrade2golf View Post

I would say to you to reevaluate your methods and money management along with your discipline.

So you have to decide right now if you can do the things that have to be done to last in this business or if you think you can fly above it all and do it anyway you want.

I can give you advice, however you will not like what I have to say because I will say what you need to hear not what you want to hear.

This is a point in your trading life where you have to decide right now if you can make the changes that will make you a trader


iTrade2golf View Post

Can you identify EXACTLY why the trades should not have happened. Being very specific will help you to mentally focus and remove some of the ambiguities over time.

Are you working to be a trend trader or a counter trend trader or both. I would DEFINITELY tell you to pick one and perfect it first before trying the other.


iTrade2golf View Post

you should have your rules written down exactly along with some screenshots. So when you make a mistake you can annotate it and write that trade down to also refer to later. I don't have to understand it, but you should know it without hesitation and it should be exact.


iTrade2golf View Post

I am saying that you are trying to trade a very fast chart and you are having to use bad risk management to accomplish. This is from using a chart that is too fast.

You also stated that you get so overwhelmed that you can't trade everyday. I was trying to introduce a larger time frame as a first step to help you with these problems that I noticed.


iTrade2golf View Post

You are digressing and starting to inject your thoughts into the market again. You are also letting other people influence your trading.

you had not did the proper due diligence of research and backtesting before trying to put a new method into your system.

You need to slow down and get YOUR methods defined EXACTLY, and never trade a method without the due diligence. This brings me to the point that trading is more the trader than the system. You MUST work on your mental flaws that allow you to make those big mistakes.

I will however help you focus on defining your methods for yourself by asking questions that will get you to hopefully focus on the proper aspects of your system. I will keep pushing you to work on the psychology of trading to include first learning all you can learn about your own personality.


iTrade2golf View Post

I would ask that you DEFINE EXACTLY your Setups, Signal, Entry, Exits and Risk Management. I am not sure of them as this thread progressed you changed somewhat. A TRADER NEVER enters a trade that is not defined in their system.

I am a little fuzzy about your current methods within your system. I am not here to analyze whether your system is correct, only that you have a complete system and will be disciplined with entries and exits and you have the correct mental approach to trading.


iTrade2golf View Post

Take what I am saying as constructive criticism in an effort to help you focus on certain aspects.

I read your posts and I can say to you that most traders that struggle are doing exactly what you are doing.

You have changed your rules often and then you don't follow them. You inject your thoughts into the market, when you should be letting the market point you in the direction that price is moving.

Your thinking is monetary and not execution based. Judge your trading days on the exact execution of your rules. The money will follow the traders who execute their system with precision and discipline.

You need to get a "DIRECTIONAL BIAS" and never trade against it for no reason. The fear of price reversing and leaving you behind is why people are afraid to only trade a market in one direction. This will also help you NOT OVER TRADE.

Another reason people can't trade with a bias is that they are trying to inject their thoughts into the market ie. "I think" that it's about to bounce here or one of my all time favorite "it looks top heavy". This comes from people not having a defined entry point and then them jumping into a market after it has moved up significantly just before the market turns for a correction or pullback. After this happening to them many times they get so afraid to trade a market moving up or down and constantly trying to pick the reversal level. To get slaughtered on a strong trend day when veteran traders are making big profits that help secure their week.


Up you have been given plenty of advice to this point. It is up to you to listen and do the hard work. I am not here to say what you want to hear only what you need to hear as I stated.

My Pastor always says "There is nothing new under the sun."

The mistakes you made yesterday, you will make today, and tomorrow. You are looking for a trading method that will make you profitable. The problem with that is that you are the problem. Self discipline is the first step. You have to become disciplined, focused, precise, and patient. Then coupled with the hard work of researching and developing your system you will possibly have a chance to be a successful trader. The Market owes you nothing, everything is earned.

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  #165 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
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Yesterday Monday I lost another thousdan so dollars. Didn't do what I knew I should. Was scared to do what I know I should. Like afraid as soon as I entered it'd go against me...wouldn't of, had I entered right.

Anyways today I started with my account at 2875. I made a trade in the morning, and it went up 30 ticks, took that, that was good. Looked over at P n L and noticed I had it on "sim"...great... Took it off sim, and aways I went. I quickly had the account down to 2400 in two trades. So...thought well crap...ok.

So as it started selling off and looking like it might hit yesterdays "VPOC". I was "mentally" against selling it, but everything said sell it. So I made myself do that. Those VPOCS do get hit, and I atleast had a chance for it. If it did work out, I'd make back some much needed mental relief, capatial relief that is. Went my way... and my account now reads "3805" dollars. I made about 930 or so.

I can say this, that the only thing from now on that I'm doing, or "not doing I guess" is trading against the 5 minute chart. I get burned almost always trying to trade "BTMAT". I think it's a valid trade, but it's to muddy, like muddy water I guess.

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  #166 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Couple of questions on the charts.





How many contracts you trade today?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #167 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Upupandaway View Post
I'd like to also point out, that since I've said I'm going to trade live...I've only heard from two people, one of which was his very first post, you. This is the first time I've heard from you, you say you have been helped by these guys, I believe you. How about spreading around what you know....I guess thats my view point on that. I mean it is my account, my money, and this is my decision. I think if other members choose not to help me because I'm trading " my money"....that, that is.....not cool. But to each his own. But like I said in the last post, I heard from very few people when I was doing good. Then it like stoped all together, posts I mean, when I was winning, and doing good...why would that be? You would think that would be when a person would want to encourage someone. " Hey your doing good, or Hey I see this, correct it"....right? No....? Who knows. But I appreciate every bit of advice I've been given.....

Fair enough.

Just a couple of thoughts. Last November or so, I was musing out loud that there were few traders commenting on my journal. I guess I wanted more attention.

Big Mike wrote me back saying that the journal was to benefit me, and that reguardless of the commenting is an aid to my trading. He was right...like usual.

Mike has the benefit of seeing thousands of traders. I mean thousands. He has seen every mistake in the book, and he can spot them from 35000 feet away.

And he has access to the very best traders. Think webinars, think telephone conversations with these guys, friendships. He likely knows more profitable traders than the average bear.

So when he speaks, I, for one, listen. I have had over 15,000 visits to my journal. And Mike has commented on my thread less than 10 times. He has never been wrong.

So, I dont know what to say, except to reiterate what I said before. I cannot add anymore advise over what you have already received. If you dont accept what you have been given, which, BTW, you havnt from what you are continuing to post, you are not getting the point.

Likewise from the advise from Private Banker and Panda Warrior. And more recently, Itradetogolf. I have to admit, I dont review his thread very often, but his reccomendations are spot on, from what I read.

You see, there isnt any secret to trading. Just like there isnt any secret to playing the game of golf. Anyone can figure it out in a few days.

But there is a big difference between playing a game of casual golf and playing the game to earn a living wage.

So what are you doing? Are you playing a game of casual golf here, or do you want to be a pro? If you want to be a pro, you have to do the things that pros do...first. ( by pro I mean a full time trader, or majority of income derived from trading)

Mike is a pro, Pandawarrior, PrivateBanker, a few more.

I want to be one.

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  #168 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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VinceVirgil View Post
You see, there isnt any secret to trading. Just like there isnt any secret to playing the game of golf. Anyone can figure it out in a few days.

Worth repeating, too many don't fully understand this Just because you know how to play and what mistakes to avoid, doesn't mean you know how to play well.

Mike

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  #169 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Mike is a pro, Pandawarrior, PrivateBanker, a few more.

I want to be one.

Once again, I fear you are stretching the truth a tad here. You, @Big Mike and @Private Banker are the pros in the list you mentioned.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #170 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Once again, I fear you are stretching the truth a tad here. You, @Big Mike and @Private Banker are the pros in the list you mentioned.....

I list myself as "advanced", not "master". I still make a lot of mistakes

Maybe you could include @tigertrader in that short list, because he is definitely in-tune with the market, it whispers to him in his sleep. You can find his fine advice scattered throughout the forum, but mainly concentrated within the SP500 main thread.

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  #171 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Big Mike View Post
I list myself as "advanced", not "master". I still make a lot of mistakes

Maybe you could include @tigertrader in that short list, because he is definitely in-tune with the market, it whispers to him in his sleep. You can find his fine advice scattered throughout the forum, but mainly concentrated within the SP500 main thread.

Mike

Yes, for sure Tiger Trader...and there are others, they just dont all come to mind at the moment.

And then there are all the webinar presenters, FT71, Al Brooks, Suri, ...there isnt enough room.

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  #172 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Once again, I fear you are stretching the truth a tad here. You, @Big Mike and @Private Banker are the pros in the list you mentioned.....

OK, how about a pro mindset, then.

From what I have read, and seen, you are working at the craft of trading as well as anyone i have read about. Maybe your results arent what you always want, but that is true of all of us.

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  #173 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
OK, how about a pro mindset, then.

From what I have read, and seen, you are working at the craft of trading as well as anyone i have read about. Maybe your results arent what you always want, but that is true of all of us.

Ok, I'll go with that for now...thanks.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #174 (permalink)
 plethora 
Los Angeles, CA
 
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Wow, lots of egos have surely hijacked this person's journal.
You guys are really projecting when you threaten to withhold
your "help" if the OP doesn't reform to your ways. This is his
process, and there is nothing you can do to prevent it. His
reflection from the inside out is more valuable than
any significant advice you think you are giving. You're just
harping, not instructing in any meaningful way whatsoever.
Work on yourselves; more needs to be done on that front than
what you imagine you can do for another. If anything, share
the example of reflection by working on yourself instead of all
the self-aggrandizement. It would go further.

And to you Up, about this post -- take what you need and leave
the rest.

The power of crowds is pathetic.

 
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  #175 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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plethora View Post
Wow, lots of egos have surely hijacked this person's journal.
You guys are really projecting when you threaten to withhold
your "help" if the OP doesn't reform to your ways. This is his
process, and there is nothing you can do to prevent it. His
reflection from the inside out is more valuable than
any significant advice you think you are giving. You're just
harping, not instructing in any meaningful way whatsoever.
Work on yourselves; more needs to be done on that front than
what you imagine you can do for another. If anything, share
the example of reflection by working on yourself instead of all
the self-aggrandizement. It would go further.

And to you Up, about this post -- take what you need and leave
the rest.

The power of crowds is pathetic.

I have to say, I am a little offended by your post.

In fact, Up asked me for some specific clarification, particulaarily why he perceived I personally havnt shared as much with him as others have shared with me. Truth is, I dont have anything more to add. He has it all. There is nothng to withhold. Perhaps I wasnt clear in my explanation.

If I see someone walking into dangerous situation, I will do my best to warn him of that danger. If he choses to ignore my warninng and is injured as a result, I am not responsible. I warned him.

But we arent talking life or death here. We are talking about trading, and how to become a successful trader. There is series of steps to accomplish this, although there is plenty of room for individual variation.

1.Proven definable, repeatable strategy for your chosen market. ( Instrument, temperment, entires, exits)

2.Risk Management.

3.Money Management.

4. Method(s) for coping with the Phsychological side of trading.

All sucessful traders have these written down. Or commited to memory. Or tatooed on themselves. Nothng they do is left up to chance. they define every aspect of trading that can be defined and controlled, because there is one thing they cannot control...

Up doesnt sound like he has this. Thats a huge disadvantage for him. Because the people he is trading against all have it. They are the best traders in the world. And they have millions of dollars of equipement and software and capital behind them. More like billions. And their sole mission in life is to take money from his pocket, and put it into theirs. And that pisses me off.

But if he insists on giving it to them so easily, well, i warned him.

Frankly, I was giving Up the very best I possibly can. i dindt post out of ego, but because I would like to see him succeed as a trader.

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  #176 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
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Here are a few ideas to maybe help with your use of MACD, Upupandaway.

These are a few things I've come across from other forex systems (MT4) and some instructor's ideas from another site. These are just some ideas on helping to use MACD for some entries so please don't take this as a full system nor do I have time or credentials to mentor or teach as I'm on my own journey with a long way to go too.. I would recommend Al Brook's book(s) at least for learning about and getting a feel for PA as I think it helps confirm and support use of indicators in some ways.

update: took a small scalp later this evening. Using the same entry ideas /w MACD. I just went for a scalp, but turned out it was
a massive 80+ cent move on CL; who knew!? At least the entry was in position...

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  #177 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Funny how a begginer, in anything, can have so much to say. Giving out advice here and their...lol....so much to say, without saying anythign at all...

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  #178 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
Funny how a begginer, in anything, can have so much to say. Giving out advice here and their...lol....so much to say, without saying anythign at all...

You may want to rethink this attitude.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #179 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Panda I dont know what your implying...by sending me to something VinceVirgil wrote. You might be reading to much into what I said.

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  #180 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Upupandaway View Post
Panda I dont know what your implying...by sending me to something VinceVirgil wrote. You might be reading to much into what I said.

I won't speak for Brian. But, when you wrote:


Upupandaway View Post
Funny how a begginer, in anything, can have so much to say. Giving out advice here and their...lol....so much to say, without saying anythign at all...

I know what I was thinking, which is that it was rude and arrogant of you.

But the reason I didn't say anything earlier was because I know that no one can help you anymore --- where you are right now --- you simply HAVE to blow up your account, and maybe several more accounts --- there is simply no other way. And you do not believe anything anyone else is saying right now, you don't think anyone is offering any advice that is actually helpful, it all seems like riddles and useless information.

This is all perfectly normal, and all experienced traders went through it at one point.

I've seen it a lot of times (people blow up their accounts, and ignore good advice). I try to give a bit of advice because I want to help, but then when it is clear the person is not listening -- I just move on and let them go on and do their thing.

All experienced traders can recall back to the time when they ignored great advice because they simply weren't ready to listen to it, or understand it.

Hopefully in a few years, if you are still trading, you will have a better understanding that the posts written here were simply trying to help you. In summary: You are focused on how much you can earn, when you should be focused on how much you can lose.

Mike

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  #181 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Ok...but I think it's arrogant of a person too chime in, right when the curtain is closing like he did. So...ya be offended or whatever, but I was offended by that. I dont mind those who had been here and responding prior to the melt down, but I do mind someone chiming in right in the middle of the war.

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  #182 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Now he has too decided he is not a beginner, good for him...party on.

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  #183 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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I dont know how someone can feel arrogant about something that isn't theirs...in the first place. Like my account...seems like a pretty big ego...dont ya think.

Also, while we are on it, if you offended by your advice not being taken, that only says something about you, and not me.

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  #184 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Mike I have a very good understanding of the advice given here. And know one can be a judge of all the circumstances that engulf my decision to continue on. I think "back testing" is wonderful advice! I think, risking no more than 1% of your capitial is great advice! I think that having a 7 tick stop in the CL is excellent( no clue how to do it) or the others, but that is where I was.

You know I have not ever approached this from that precent type position. The one it takes to make it I guess. I'm not that person, I have to become that person at some point if I want to trade and win, I know it. I dont know where to start, I've been sitting here for nine years, and it was make it work now or forget about it. And I guess I'm not really willing to forget about it since I'm sitting here thinking about what to do next. lol.

In my life in other areas I've banged my head up against many walls. Trying to do something that just wouldn't work. I did eventually get it. I was on auto pilot and it was going to be, what it was going to be, and I knew it. But atleast now I know it....

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  #185 (permalink)
 avall38486 
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Up, Just an idea : back to the basics

Have you ever thought of purchasing a full " mentorship course" with indicators ? AND,

CLEAR money management RULES showing "PROPER" risk/reward trading ? (Your weakness), AND

most importantly telling your self that you will follow that particular method ONLY. (disciplin, another of your weakness)

There many courses, but look for the one which will STRESS OUT on your weak points. There are ligitimite mentors out there. Here on this forum you can investigate and look for some. There are excellent mentors here on the forum.

Many of the great traders have mentors. Read Schwager's books. Tiger Woods have a coach/mentor. He is a great golfer, but he needs a coach. He must have a coach to compete in a tough game. So is trading. It is a very tough game.
Trading is more difficult than practicing surgey, even brain surgery. Think about this, you are practicing the most difficult profession out there.

Again, a good course, a good mentor, and your willingness to study ONE single method / course, can make you successful. It is time for you to leave back all the old habits and start from scratch again. Yes it will cost you money, but money paid for proper education is better than money lost to the market. This type of education will last you forever, and you will not regret it.

Best of luck

Amin

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  #186 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Avall your right....I plan on doing that, exactly....thanks..

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  #187 (permalink)
SteveH
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The irony here is that most people come to futures.io (formerly BMT) after having been repeatedly ripped off by "mentored training courses/materials", settling more for honesty among other at-homers who have no grand ulterior motive (i.e., putting your money into their pockets). It's far easier to find good traders willing to spend a little time sharing their knowledge than it is to find a legitimate master trader who has your best interest at heart in exchange for a monthly compensation.

Play the Devil's Advocate here. Pretend you're a master trader who trades at home. You make 800K to 3 mil a year without ever having to get out of your jammies in the morning. Now, why the heck would you want a piddly $300-$500 a month or "lifetime" $3,000 training fee from a bunch of desperate at-homers who are only going to constantly nag you about every detail they can imagine about simple buy/sell and exit setups? It's a total waste of your valuable time.

You should be far less cynical about those having posted thoughtfully in this thread than the "creatures" you are planning to seek out and willingly give your money to.

You're going to do what you want to do and live with the consequences. So I leave you with the following stats:

1. Anyone who claims winning a net 2x or more what they risk long-term and has better than 50% winners is LYING.

2. Anyone who claims winning 80%+ of the time long-term and has 1:1 or better RR is LYING. Once you get over about 70% winners, you will wind up risking MORE per trade than you will win.

[Anyone can show you a run of trades which look like the defy the above claims, but if you flipped a coin 5-8 times a day as though it represented winning / losing trades, some days would appear to be drawn from a better probability distribution than a 50/50 chance.]

Winning pct and avg wins / avg losses are inverse relationships in trading. I wish it were not the case, but it is and all the "master traders" in the world cannot alter this fact, regardless of how wonderful their trading presentations may appear.

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  #188 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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SteveH View Post
Pretend you're a master trader who trades at home. You make 800K to 3 mil a year without ever having to get out of your jammies in the morning. Now, why the heck would you want a piddly $300-$500 a month or "lifetime" $3,000 training fee from a bunch of desperate at-homers who are only going to constantly nag you about every detail they can imagine about simple buy/sell and exit setups? It's a total waste of your valuable time.

I agree with most of what you say here.

But about the master traders thing.

Trading, at home, in one jammies is a very solitary pursuit. One who isolates oneself does so out of their own selfish interest.

I beleive that is the main reason successful traders share their ideas. It helps them to solidify their own methodology.

Being able to discuss with others (or emailing) has provided me with the single greatest benefit in my development as a trader.

I met them all on futures.io (formerly BMT). And a few have been very generous with their time. I wont mention them, because, I am priviledged that they took the time to help me, and they continue to be a valuable resource. They have become my friends, and and if they chose to help someone else, it is their choice to make. I dont want to contribute to some desperate traders stalking themdemanding their time.

I have asked them how I can repay them. By sharing what I have learned from them with others. The others of my choosing. I dont want desperate traders stalking me either. I have much better things to do with my time than allow that to happen.

I am not against charging for services. Maybe gas money. Cover expenses maybe. If someone has some skin in the game, then you know they are serious. Like the Elite Membership on futures.io (formerly BMT). It cost me 50 bucks. Paid for itself in the 1st half hour.

You make some very good points.

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  #189 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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SteveH View Post
1. Anyone who claims winning a net 2x or more what they risk long-term and has better than 50% winners is LYING.

2. Anyone who claims winning 80%+ of the time long-term and has 1:1 or better RR is LYING. Once you get over about 70% winners, you will wind up risking MORE per trade than you will win.

Ninja Trader defines a winner as a positive trade. But if a trade is BE +1, it is considered a winner. In my book, that isnt a winner. Because it was a trade that didnt hit the target.

For instance, I have a 2/3 target, and then a runner. If my first target is succesful, then I move my stop so that if it come back to take me out, that is BE +2.5. Now, is that a winning trade? Yes, in the stats, but it wasnt nesessarily a succesful one.

Now if my 2nd target is hit, I move my runner to BE+1, then that is a succesful trade.

So let say I take 6 trades.

2 are losers, 2 are sucessful, 2 are BE.

If my average loss is 30 ticks, and my average sucessfull trade is 45, and I have 2 BE trades as scratch , my sucess rate is 50%.

Count the BE trades as winners, its 66%..

Average win will be 22.5 ticks, average loss is 30. Average loss greater than average win.

Count the BE as losses, its 33%.

But they all net the same. It is a winning strategy...with different percentages.

I know thats not what you are getting at, however, I just wanted to point out the struggle I have had with reporting of winners and lossers, and how to communicate with other traders. Our personal definition of winners versus losers can be a matter of personal interpretaion.

Like spin doctoring the stats. And if we can do that, how can we get an accurate reading of consistency?

Thnaks for your post...It is a subject that I have given some thought.

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  #190 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
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SteveH View Post
The irony here is that most people come to futures.io (formerly BMT) after having been repeatedly ripped off by "mentored training courses/materials", settling more for honesty among other at-homers who have no grand ulterior motive (i.e., putting your money into their pockets).

My feelings exactly. There's just an overwhelming proportion of dubious trading education and mentoring services compared to any rare real deals. Even some if not many of the vendor reviews here on futures.io (formerly BMT) have been infiltrated by shill posts although I can't prove it and just going by my feeling "vibe".

The last trading room I tried had the typical $100-$300 a month, and $7000 (discounted to $5000) full mentorship signup offerings. After trying sim and following their strategy and signals for a few weeks, it was apparent in the live room which was only a few hours that the method wasn't profitable. The host kept holding things back too and at times I felt I was the only one in the room although "40 attendees" were mentioned. I think a lot of these rooms have fake members or other staff pretending to be client members. And as usual a set of proprietary indicators for a monthly fee. And some of them suspiciously looked like big and small "trigger lines" as shown by CJ Booth and NexGen. I reproduced their indicators pretty much on NT7 and concluded they were nothing special. There were just too many days the results in the room were obfuscated and too many losing days. Yet the "after room" session showed big winners many times 4 to 10x the live session. When I quit, they contacted me and said they were disappointed about me leaving. I couldn't believe they seriously thought I wasn't wise to their scam, of making up replay trades after hours, and/or multiplying the number of contracts by 10 to make big trades to make up for their room hours' losses. It was soon obvious they only traded sim. And they would post these inflated results over youtube and whatnot as ad material obviously. Trying to pigeonhole me as a newbie who hadn't been taken by other "education vendor" scam$ in the past. This seems to be a standard modus operandi of starting a trading room/mentoring/indicator business now. Like how they make cookie cutter movies these days...

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  #191 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Upupandaway View Post
Avall your right....I plan on doing that, exactly....thanks..

I guess when I made that post, I was misunderstood, in making people believe I'd seek out "mentors", because I wont. I dont believe in it, and wouldn't matter if I did, I dont have the money for it. I think exactly like one of the last few posts. If a guy is making 800,000 to 3 mil a year, why is he willing to help a person for 500 or 5000 for that matter, makes no sense.

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  #192 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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I've started paper trading again. These are the results of today's trades. On the 5 minute chart you can see the VPOC never changed for the entire day, very low volume. But kept going up all day. Anyways my focus is to make sure I trade only above or below the white MA (which is a 34EMA on a 610 tick chart) for the intended direction.


Secondly I've added the stochRSI to my chart. The reason is that "if" I'm right about the trade direction I can use it to signal a trade. I then know that from that point, my stop should be no larger than 14 ticks.

Third to make certain that price has pulled back off of the high or low. I've noticed I sometimes sell the low, or buy the high because of the indicator, so I'm going to try not to do this, buy letting price pull back, and letting price lead, then looking at indicators.

So you can see from the 150 tick chart that I went short twice. This was due to me "thinking" instead of watching. So I stopped trading. I made those two mistakes so I stopped.

So again my first goal is to 1: Only trade prices above or below the white ma for the intended trade direction
2: Have a stop no larger than 14 ticks
3: To make certain price has actually "pulled back" and not just the indicator has pulled back.

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  #193 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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I think I was a little to excited this morning. I can see five trades I shouldn't of made. However sticking to only trading while prices are above or below the white ma eventually got me ahead. This is what I've experienced in the past in doing this. I do also monitor a 5 minute chart. I think you have to, it makes sense to. All different time frames being traded, and tha'ts one of the most popular.

Of those 5 trades I shouldn't of made all where in the morning. They are the five trades after the first one made in the morning. I should of atleast waited for the swing low to be made, and at best waited for the 50EMA to have prices closing below it.

So...I did what I wanted to, traded prices only above the white MA or for the respected direction. Also I didn't take a larger loss than 140 dollars, so that's good.

I'm trying to stop my brain from overriding what I see, by focusing on only trading prices above or below the white EMA for the intended trade direction. I gotta get to where I do the same thing no matter what I think.

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  #194 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Yah so...ok right today I did what I said I would. Traded only above the white ma except in the only situation that it's allowed. In the case of a gap. Doing this kept me ahead, and I finished up well on the day. Their where two prior day's VPOC"s that price could of gone to. Looked at first it would try lower, then went higher. It just touched the upper VPOC at 94.20 before it reversed.

Went all the way back down to test the IB low, (marked as yellow lines on my charts) and basically stopped right their for the day.

Also I kept my stop to 14 ticks or below.

My goal is to trade 1: Only prices above or below the white ma for the expected direction ( except in a gap situation)
2: Keep my stop to 14 ticks or below

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  #195 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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I did trade today but not much. Having some medication issuses woke up late. Took two trades, and that was that. I stuck to the plan as far though. Traded only above the white ma and lost no more than 14 ticks.

Would of been great to of been here in the morning. One of the VPOC's was taken out. I monitor these things, they work. They will use them, and when they have not yet been touched by price, it's great, because it acts like a magnant alot of the time. Go again Monday.

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  #196 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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So this morning I had to take a friend to work. Got back about 15 after 8:00. So I missed a long trade. Took one, didn't work out..so thats fine. So...the main thing I'm focusing on is making sure I trade prices above or below the white MA for the expected direction. However four of my trades where above it today, that's fine because I allow it on gap days. Also I had another added advantage that their was a VPOC that could be hit, and was eventually hit.

So I followed the plan. Traded only above or below the white MA except in this case, because of a gap.
Also I lost no more than 14ticks (well two trades had slippage) but the stop was set to 14 ticks.

Their are two pictures of the 5 minute chart below. I wanted to show two, one with Gomi's stuff up, and one with it off. Just so a person could see the VPOC and the Gap more clearly.

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  #197 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Monday August 20, 2012

Made sure all I did was trade above or below the white MA. To the best of my ability I tried buying and selling only pull backs. So far as long as I stick to just buying above the white ema and selling below the white ema I win.

In the morning before the market I look to see where any VPOC are for prior days, or the previous. I want to know if price would run to it during the day, makes a good target, and a way to calculate risk and profit. Normally their is no idea how far it will go before pulling back.

I also mark the initial balance at the first hour of trading. Because again during the day price might, and often does hit these levels again, and it makes for great targets for me. Also I monitor the "major trend" on a daily chart.

The two pictures below on the 5 minute chart. I have to pictures to show what levels I saw and used. The pictures have what pretty much shows what is happening. But price took out two prior days VPOC so that made great targets and a good bounce in an uptrend after hitting the low of the pior day and a very near VPOC

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  #198 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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This is a test to see if I get an email saying their was a post.

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  #199 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
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Upupandaway View Post
This is a test to see if I get an email saying their was a post.

Not for your own posts, but if you are subscribed then you should get this one.

Sent from my Transformer Prime TF201 using Tapatalk 2

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  #200 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Oh ok...I see. Yaup I got your post, thanks.

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