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A CL Trading Journal


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A CL Trading Journal

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  #181 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Ok...but I think it's arrogant of a person too chime in, right when the curtain is closing like he did. So...ya be offended or whatever, but I was offended by that. I dont mind those who had been here and responding prior to the melt down, but I do mind someone chiming in right in the middle of the war.

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  #182 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Now he has too decided he is not a beginner, good for him...party on.

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  #183 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received


I dont know how someone can feel arrogant about something that isn't theirs...in the first place. Like my account...seems like a pretty big ego...dont ya think.

Also, while we are on it, if you offended by your advice not being taken, that only says something about you, and not me.

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  #184 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Mike I have a very good understanding of the advice given here. And know one can be a judge of all the circumstances that engulf my decision to continue on. I think "back testing" is wonderful advice! I think, risking no more than 1% of your capitial is great advice! I think that having a 7 tick stop in the CL is excellent( no clue how to do it) or the others, but that is where I was.

You know I have not ever approached this from that precent type position. The one it takes to make it I guess. I'm not that person, I have to become that person at some point if I want to trade and win, I know it. I dont know where to start, I've been sitting here for nine years, and it was make it work now or forget about it. And I guess I'm not really willing to forget about it since I'm sitting here thinking about what to do next. lol.

In my life in other areas I've banged my head up against many walls. Trying to do something that just wouldn't work. I did eventually get it. I was on auto pilot and it was going to be, what it was going to be, and I knew it. But atleast now I know it....

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  #185 (permalink)
Dallas, Texas
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Trading: crude oil
 
Posts: 88 since Dec 2011
Thanks: 70 given, 41 received

Up, Just an idea : back to the basics

Have you ever thought of purchasing a full " mentorship course" with indicators ? AND,

CLEAR money management RULES showing "PROPER" risk/reward trading ? (Your weakness), AND

most importantly telling your self that you will follow that particular method ONLY. (disciplin, another of your weakness)

There many courses, but look for the one which will STRESS OUT on your weak points. There are ligitimite mentors out there. Here on this forum you can investigate and look for some. There are excellent mentors here on the forum.

Many of the great traders have mentors. Read Schwager's books. Tiger Woods have a coach/mentor. He is a great golfer, but he needs a coach. He must have a coach to compete in a tough game. So is trading. It is a very tough game.
Trading is more difficult than practicing surgey, even brain surgery. Think about this, you are practicing the most difficult profession out there.

Again, a good course, a good mentor, and your willingness to study ONE single method / course, can make you successful. It is time for you to leave back all the old habits and start from scratch again. Yes it will cost you money, but money paid for proper education is better than money lost to the market. This type of education will last you forever, and you will not regret it.

Best of luck

Amin

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  #186 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Avall your right....I plan on doing that, exactly....thanks..

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  #187 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida, USA
 
 
Posts: 34 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 96 received

The irony here is that most people come to futures.io (formerly BMT) after having been repeatedly ripped off by "mentored training courses/materials", settling more for honesty among other at-homers who have no grand ulterior motive (i.e., putting your money into their pockets). It's far easier to find good traders willing to spend a little time sharing their knowledge than it is to find a legitimate master trader who has your best interest at heart in exchange for a monthly compensation.

Play the Devil's Advocate here. Pretend you're a master trader who trades at home. You make 800K to 3 mil a year without ever having to get out of your jammies in the morning. Now, why the heck would you want a piddly $300-$500 a month or "lifetime" $3,000 training fee from a bunch of desperate at-homers who are only going to constantly nag you about every detail they can imagine about simple buy/sell and exit setups? It's a total waste of your valuable time.

You should be far less cynical about those having posted thoughtfully in this thread than the "creatures" you are planning to seek out and willingly give your money to.

You're going to do what you want to do and live with the consequences. So I leave you with the following stats:

1. Anyone who claims winning a net 2x or more what they risk long-term and has better than 50% winners is LYING.

2. Anyone who claims winning 80%+ of the time long-term and has 1:1 or better RR is LYING. Once you get over about 70% winners, you will wind up risking MORE per trade than you will win.

[Anyone can show you a run of trades which look like the defy the above claims, but if you flipped a coin 5-8 times a day as though it represented winning / losing trades, some days would appear to be drawn from a better probability distribution than a 50/50 chance.]

Winning pct and avg wins / avg losses are inverse relationships in trading. I wish it were not the case, but it is and all the "master traders" in the world cannot alter this fact, regardless of how wonderful their trading presentations may appear.

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  #188 (permalink)
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 2,144 given, 9,218 received


SteveH View Post
Pretend you're a master trader who trades at home. You make 800K to 3 mil a year without ever having to get out of your jammies in the morning. Now, why the heck would you want a piddly $300-$500 a month or "lifetime" $3,000 training fee from a bunch of desperate at-homers who are only going to constantly nag you about every detail they can imagine about simple buy/sell and exit setups? It's a total waste of your valuable time.

I agree with most of what you say here.

But about the master traders thing.

Trading, at home, in one jammies is a very solitary pursuit. One who isolates oneself does so out of their own selfish interest.

I beleive that is the main reason successful traders share their ideas. It helps them to solidify their own methodology.

Being able to discuss with others (or emailing) has provided me with the single greatest benefit in my development as a trader.

I met them all on futures.io (formerly BMT). And a few have been very generous with their time. I wont mention them, because, I am priviledged that they took the time to help me, and they continue to be a valuable resource. They have become my friends, and and if they chose to help someone else, it is their choice to make. I dont want to contribute to some desperate traders stalking themdemanding their time.

I have asked them how I can repay them. By sharing what I have learned from them with others. The others of my choosing. I dont want desperate traders stalking me either. I have much better things to do with my time than allow that to happen.

I am not against charging for services. Maybe gas money. Cover expenses maybe. If someone has some skin in the game, then you know they are serious. Like the Elite Membership on futures.io (formerly BMT). It cost me 50 bucks. Paid for itself in the 1st half hour.

You make some very good points.

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  #189 (permalink)
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 2,144 given, 9,218 received


SteveH View Post
1. Anyone who claims winning a net 2x or more what they risk long-term and has better than 50% winners is LYING.

2. Anyone who claims winning 80%+ of the time long-term and has 1:1 or better RR is LYING. Once you get over about 70% winners, you will wind up risking MORE per trade than you will win.

Ninja Trader defines a winner as a positive trade. But if a trade is BE +1, it is considered a winner. In my book, that isnt a winner. Because it was a trade that didnt hit the target.

For instance, I have a 2/3 target, and then a runner. If my first target is succesful, then I move my stop so that if it come back to take me out, that is BE +2.5. Now, is that a winning trade? Yes, in the stats, but it wasnt nesessarily a succesful one.

Now if my 2nd target is hit, I move my runner to BE+1, then that is a succesful trade.

So let say I take 6 trades.

2 are losers, 2 are sucessful, 2 are BE.

If my average loss is 30 ticks, and my average sucessfull trade is 45, and I have 2 BE trades as scratch , my sucess rate is 50%.

Count the BE trades as winners, its 66%..

Average win will be 22.5 ticks, average loss is 30. Average loss greater than average win.

Count the BE as losses, its 33%.

But they all net the same. It is a winning strategy...with different percentages.

I know thats not what you are getting at, however, I just wanted to point out the struggle I have had with reporting of winners and lossers, and how to communicate with other traders. Our personal definition of winners versus losers can be a matter of personal interpretaion.

Like spin doctoring the stats. And if we can do that, how can we get an accurate reading of consistency?

Thnaks for your post...It is a subject that I have given some thought.

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  #190 (permalink)
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, TOS, CQG-trader
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,130 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,372 given, 1,710 received



SteveH View Post
The irony here is that most people come to futures.io (formerly BMT) after having been repeatedly ripped off by "mentored training courses/materials", settling more for honesty among other at-homers who have no grand ulterior motive (i.e., putting your money into their pockets).

My feelings exactly. There's just an overwhelming proportion of dubious trading education and mentoring services compared to any rare real deals. Even some if not many of the vendor reviews here on futures.io (formerly BMT) have been infiltrated by shill posts although I can't prove it and just going by my feeling "vibe".

The last trading room I tried had the typical $100-$300 a month, and $7000 (discounted to $5000) full mentorship signup offerings. After trying sim and following their strategy and signals for a few weeks, it was apparent in the live room which was only a few hours that the method wasn't profitable. The host kept holding things back too and at times I felt I was the only one in the room although "40 attendees" were mentioned. I think a lot of these rooms have fake members or other staff pretending to be client members. And as usual a set of proprietary indicators for a monthly fee. And some of them suspiciously looked like big and small "trigger lines" as shown by CJ Booth and NexGen. I reproduced their indicators pretty much on NT7 and concluded they were nothing special. There were just too many days the results in the room were obfuscated and too many losing days. Yet the "after room" session showed big winners many times 4 to 10x the live session. When I quit, they contacted me and said they were disappointed about me leaving. I couldn't believe they seriously thought I wasn't wise to their scam, of making up replay trades after hours, and/or multiplying the number of contracts by 10 to make big trades to make up for their room hours' losses. It was soon obvious they only traded sim. And they would post these inflated results over youtube and whatnot as ad material obviously. Trying to pigeonhole me as a newbie who hadn't been taken by other "education vendor" scam$ in the past. This seems to be a standard modus operandi of starting a trading room/mentoring/indicator business now. Like how they make cookie cutter movies these days...

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