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A CL Trading Journal


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A CL Trading Journal

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  #141 (permalink)
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, TOS, CQG-trader
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,130 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,372 given, 1,710 received

I just saw the recent posts. Sorry you had that downer of a day. I've had those before too when things went out of control. I'm just beginning to make progress on sticking to my stops and I also still have problems impulsively doubling down.

Here's a link to a great "intervention" video(audio) by FT71 Big Mike posted for me once.
FuturesTrader71 | Trader Analysis 2011-09-01

Just my 2c suggestions from my limited viewpoint. Try going back to 1 contract. If your account is too small then you could try soybeans or see if you have access to a mini-contract instrument through your broker. A rule of thumb is 1 contract per 20 or 10k. 1 contract per 5k I'd consider the maximum risk of leverage personally. Also if you're an elite member, take a look at Gabriyele's "Videos you ought to see" links thread. Some great videos on psychology and money management by some of big names in trading there.

I don't quite agree sim is next to worthless. Sim can be used to explore and practice different methods and ideas. I think you need to revise your system until it works average 60 to 70% on sim or better. Even when I had runs on live at 60% or better there were days when it just didn't work due to a sloppy market, overintense competition, or low volume and HFT fakeouts. Some suggested goals to improve would not just be entries, but also a stop strategy such as B/E or profit preserving stop once the trade goes into profitability ,and what happens and whats the plan when a trade doesn't turn out positive right away.

Forex is ok. Some folks prefer trading and profiting on forex. But short time frame trading on forex may be prone to stop running and slippage shenanigans by the mostly unregulated Interbank. Maybe a longer time frame at least 5min can avoid that somewhat. TDAmeritrade's ThinkOrSwim offers forex trading, spread or commission based as well as trading anything else. Hope it turns out better for you.

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  #142 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

Todays Friday June 22.

I traded to today "live" made about 320 dollars. Traded 1 contract.

The day prior on the 21 I traded live as well. Did well for a while. Well actually all day. I was trading 2 contracts, and was up 1200 dollars. I had lost one trade for 90 dollars. Near the end of the day, I tried entering long two different times and lost those. After those two loss's I was still up 20 dollars. So on the last trade I traded 3 contracts, didnt work out, lost 540 dollars. Which ended up being a loss of about 360 on the day. My account was now at 3,828.64 starting this morning that's where it was.

Pictures from that day below. Pictures from today June 22 in next post

Oh in the second picture, the first trade I can not say that was a mistake. But I think obviously I should of stopped their. And I know that also the last trade in the third picture was just...stupid...mistake...was a hoping! So..I know that was awful

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  #143 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received


I'm just going to post my charts. I traded 1 contract, all day.

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  #144 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

"But you have not developed confidence, you've not developed money management skills you can depend on day in and day out and you've demonstrated you do trade against the method that appears to be clear to everyone reading the thread. "

I'd like to know exactly what method that is that is clear to everyone? And since you didn't say, I'm wondering what you think the solution is, or should be?

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  #145 (permalink)
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Platform: Tradeovate
Trading: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,162 since Mar 2010
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Upupandaway View Post
"But you have not developed confidence, you've not developed money management skills you can depend on day in and day out and you've demonstrated you do trade against the method that appears to be clear to everyone reading the thread. "

I'd like to know exactly what method that is that is clear to everyone? And since you didn't say, I'm wondering what you think the solution is, or should be?



Quoting 
This is my trading plan

After the open I'll look for “Pull Backs” or “Back To Moving Average Trade” I also will be taking notice of the 5 minute chart what the volume is like and the mood of the market, from each 5 minute bar to the next. The way a 5 minute bar closes is important and will be considered accordingly.

My Setups

1. Buying or selling at the open: I will buy or sell at the open given there is sufficient momentum. Target two points. Stop is 15 ticks but to moved accordingly.

2. Pull Backs: Prices move to make a “New Low, or High” and pulls back at least 20 ticks. The MACD is above or below its zero line. The 50EMA has been the correct color for the intended trade direction. Background is green or red ideally.

3. Back To Moving Average Trade(BTMAT): Price is off the high or low and is closing inside the 50EMA. The target is the white 34EMA or 10 ticks. Stop is set to 14 ticks.

Well your're basically trading a moving average cross over method with your own filters and along with a lagging MACD. You're looking for pull backs with confirmation on price action from the MACD.

You also have a counter trend method that is looking for pull backs to the slower MA's.

Both of these are very valid trading methods. As you know, I am not a fan of the MACD for entry purposes. I think the MA's are plenty of confirmation. The last couple of posts the trading looks much better other than the longs that got stopped out. The rest looks pretty good. The MACD got you in trouble on those longs by the look of it. There were also a couple of short winners that happened long after price action said they could but were confirmed by the MACD. I think the entries were way late. Fortunately they worked.

The issue here is that many of your trades happen far away from the MA thereby negating the risk reduction of the pull back. Thats why I wonder about risk management.

This is pretty much the minor aspect of the issue. The issue is you're trading with to much risk for the size of your account assuming that's all the money you have allocated for risk capital. With a 15 tick stop and 1 lot, your risking 4% on every trade. You traded 2 lots. Thats 8% of your account risked per trade.....then 3 lots....11%....really? Most traders recommend no more than 2% per trade max and a more conservative is 2% per day and 25% of that per trade.

After these last two days, I am in complete agreement with @Big Mike on the recommendation to move to forex and trade micro lots until you can rebuild the account to a level that will allow you to trade CL with reasonable account risk. It is after all, one of the best instruments to trade.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #146 (permalink)
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Platform: Tradeovate
Trading: Energy
 
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Posts: 3,162 since Mar 2010
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Upupandaway View Post
I'd like to know exactly what method that is that is clear to everyone? And since you didn't say, I'm wondering what you think the solution is, or should be?

I didn't answer this part. I trade a very similar system although the visual is very different and on a higher time frame but the principal is the same.

Here's a screenshot of trades that go against your method as i understand it.

I think the primary thing would be this, ditch the MACD at least for entry confirmation. Its often VERY late, use it later on as @Private Banker said for confirmation after the fact but if the trade is green, do you even need that?

Once you do this, you'll start seeing your entries clearer and you'll get in sooner. I marked a few for you earlier on and here is another one with the areas I would be getting in (I'm not saying I'm perfect here by any means, anyone can dissect a chart in hindsight). The primary thing here is price action is confirming the entry by virtue of minor level breaks after the pull back.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #147 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

In the below picture I dont see a pull back to any degree. I entered because I believed it was going to continue up before having a pull back to a greater degree. I kow the MACD is in conflict with what else is happening alot of the time. I try to remedy this by all the MA, and such.

I know I would like to get rid of the MACD, but it's what I use to signal a trade. If not the MACD then what? Whats your suggestion? Just price action? Change to 5 minute chart? Thanks

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  #148 (permalink)
Dallas/Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL Crude Oil
 
Posts: 281 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 168 given, 166 received

What do you mean no reversion to the slow MA? Why I didn't take the trade?





PandaWarrior View Post
I didn't answer this part. I trade a very similar system although the visual is very different and on a higher time frame but the principal is the same.

Here's a screenshot of trades that go against your method as i understand it.

I think the primary thing would be this, ditch the MACD at least for entry confirmation. Its often VERY late, use it later on as @Private Banker said for confirmation after the fact but if the trade is green, do you even need that?

Once you do this, you'll start seeing your entries clearer and you'll get in sooner. I marked a few for you earlier on and here is another one with the areas I would be getting in (I'm not saying I'm perfect here by any means, anyone can dissect a chart in hindsight). The primary thing here is price action is confirming the entry by virtue of minor level breaks after the pull back.



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  #149 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012

I think if you use stochastic with 3,9,3 settings will help you see when the market is ready to go up or down and align your trade with it.

I see you use tick charts, i use range charts but still works, i have attached an image showing your entries combined with the Momentum (stochastic).

Hope it helps.

Greetings,.


JDNeeman







PandaWarrior View Post
I didn't answer this part. I trade a very similar system although the visual is very different and on a higher time frame but the principal is the same.

Here's a screenshot of trades that go against your method as i understand it.

I think the primary thing would be this, ditch the MACD at least for entry confirmation. Its often VERY late, use it later on as @Private Banker said for confirmation after the fact but if the trade is green, do you even need that?

Once you do this, you'll start seeing your entries clearer and you'll get in sooner. I marked a few for you earlier on and here is another one with the areas I would be getting in (I'm not saying I'm perfect here by any means, anyone can dissect a chart in hindsight). The primary thing here is price action is confirming the entry by virtue of minor level breaks after the pull back.



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  #150 (permalink)
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Platform: Tradeovate
Trading: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,162 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,324 given, 13,368 received



Upupandaway View Post
In the below picture I dont see a pull back to any degree. I entered because I believed it was going to continue up before having a pull back to a greater degree. I kow the MACD is in conflict with what else is happening alot of the time. I try to remedy this by all the MA, and such.

I know I would like to get rid of the MACD, but it's what I use to signal a trade. If not the MACD then what? Whats your suggestion? Just price action? Change to 5 minute chart? Thanks

Ok, this isn't perfect but I have to run now and I won't be back rest of the weekend. By no means is this the only way to trade this but I think you get the idea. This is just one man's perspective.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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