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Lord Sidious's Trading Journal
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Lord Sidious's Trading Journal

  #51 (permalink)
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Lord Sidious View Post

Guys, Iīm beggining to feel quite unconfortable trading my trading plan. I find too rigid and honestly, it should be more flexible. I feel as I have a strait jacket. In fact, entries oportunities are very few, if I follow all of the rules. Thatīs why today I did only 2 trades again. Both of them turned out as losses, but once again I was right regarding market direction.

...

I know that I commited myself to trade with this plan for 10 trading days (two weeks), but honestly, I was thinking about making some adjustments. What do you guys think?

Sticking to a plan is difficult but it is the only way to identify patterns in your trading that are not working. If you keep changing rules you will not know which ones are helpful and which ones are hurtful. But if you find that one of them is obviously not working then there is little reason to continue following that rule. The whole point of the exercise is to ensure that you have a proven edge before you commit serious capital.


Quoting 
I will enter trades after identify if the day is trending or ranging. Trade range days will be prefered.

I have not seen you mention this rule in your analysis. Are you sticking to this rule? Also note whether the trade is trend or countertrend.

Before you consider changing your rules, just make sure that you are following all your rules.

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  #52 (permalink)
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Lord Sidious View Post
Yes, Cloudy, Iīm starting to agree that 8 points is too tight. I wonīt change my chart/rules until the end. 8 more trading days!

8 trading days at 2 or 3 trades per day is certainly not enough of a sample size to determine if any trading method has a good chance of being successful long term. As others have said before, backtesting is where you determine if a trading concept is worth even trying out in any forward fashion live or sim.

Also, changing your rules and or chart after 8 days, does not mean that you can continue forward with the assumptions that you derived from the previous 8 days. Whenever you change one thing, any thing about your method, all the conclusions you derived prior to that change should be considered void, and you should start the proofing process again from scratch (day 0), re-backtesting the new method with the new change, and moving forward again from there.


Last edited by monpere; May 18th, 2012 at 08:57 AM.
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  #53 (permalink)
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ddnut View Post
Sticking to a plan is difficult but it is the only way to identify patterns in your trading that are not working. If you keep changing rules you will not know which ones are helpful and which ones are hurtful. But if you find that one of them is obviously not working then there is little reason to continue following that rule. The whole point of the exercise is to ensure that you have a proven edge before you commit serious capital.

I see! Thatīs the idea, I agree! However Iīve seen already that Iīll have to change my stop loss. My 3 losing trades failed because the stops were easily hit.


ddnut View Post
I have not seen you mention this rule in your analysis. Are you sticking to this rule? Also note whether the trade is trend or countertrend.

Yes, Iīm sticking, although I forgot to mention. Thatīs one thing I could metion also, if the trade is trend or countertrend! Nice sugestion.


ddnut View Post
Before you consider changing your rules, just make sure that you are following all your rules.

Thatīs the reason for me to feel chained, Iīm following all my new rules.



Thanks for your input.

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  #54 (permalink)
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@Lord Sidious

Do you really need to use three oscillators [RSI, Stochastic, MACD]?
You do not need to answer me, instead ask that question to yourself.

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  #55 (permalink)
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mrphr View Post
@Lord Sidious

Do you really need to use three oscillators [RSI, Stochastic, MACD]?
You do not need to answer me, instead ask that question to yourself.

Hi, mrphr!

Like I wrote before, these indicators give many false entries signals during a trading day. However, and altought we know that there are no certainties in the markets, if they are close to each, giving a signal, it could be better than not having them.

The purpose of this exercice is to test (even just for two weeks, as I know I need a lot more time), if my trading plan, tactis, rules and strategies show a proven edge. I trade for 18 months, thus Iīm at the beggining. This is a path I need to stay, in order to improve.

But, do you want to make a sugestion for other indicators?

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  #56 (permalink)
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Cloudy View Post
In regard to indicators, even though they always lag, they can be used in other ways to help gauge a probable entry or reasons to stay out of a trade, or exit a trade. For example, while a MACD alone will be lagging, looking for divergences with MACD in comparison to price is another way of using MACD , looking at a pattern on the MACD instead of just the current close of bar result of the MACD. Then there's also an average of the MACD which can help generalize the overall trend in the past 20 bars or so depending on its settings. Divergences can also be looked at on the stochastic. Stochastics can be helpful to a more experienced trader when price is in a range and the trader wants to scalp tops and bottoms. When there's more momentum and bigger movements in price, stochastics fail to show discernible fluctuations when they overstay it's oversold or undersold boundaries. And then a momentum indicator such as RSI would be more reflective of price movement in this scenario. Also, like TIYF said, it's important to have an awareness of price structure. Like knowing for example when price is in a consolidation phase vs. a trending phase, when a continuation breakout is likely to occur or a trend is showing weakness and a reversal may be coming soon. Price action material like Brook's can help in that area.

Except for the Al Brooks part, I would think you were reading directly from my trading plan!

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  #57 (permalink)
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Thanks Monpere, I'm honored if I came somewhat close

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  #58 (permalink)
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No chance to trade yesterday. Thatīs the problem of trading part-time.

Everything is set for today! Looking forward to it!



Good trading!

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  #59 (permalink)
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Day Trading 3 (New Trading Plan)

Hey, guys!

Iīve had my trading day 3. This time I tried on paper trading (one broker that uses the same platform of the one I use to investment. By the way, the platform is not very good, bugs, indicators disappear, etc. Two of the charts arenīt very good regarding image quality...).


Well, in about 45 minutes I did 3 trades. 3 winning trades!

I had to add the symbol of buying manually after copying the chart, as the platform didnīt added it (Chart 2)...




Here they are:


Trade 1 chart

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Trade 2 chart

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Trade 3 chart

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Analysis:

All trades followed the rules/tacticts. You have days wainting hours to enter. I had entries in about 45 minutes...! About simulating trading, this time, I donīt know what to think, if the fact of not having pressure/emotions can have anything to do with the 3 sucessful trades. I think not, as I simply followed my plan, plain and simple. However, I think it could be better to think about paying close atention to the "M" (Mind) part.



Overall:

7 trades: (4 wins - 3 losses).




Good trading!

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  #60 (permalink)
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Congrats Sidious, nice job!

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