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Ota's Trading Journal


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Ota's Trading Journal

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  #11 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
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Posts: 820 since May 2013
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Ota Trader View Post
Hi all,
after watching new FTs webinar I have decided to continue with my journal. I will post my entries with comments. I am not going to post pre-market analysis because is usually the same as is presenting FT71 in his Trader bite.
The main reason for re-opening my journal is that I am still battling to make a turn in trading. And maybe I can get a good advice here. I moved from NQ to ES because I wasnt fast enought to trade it and I am much better in reading the order flow in the ES than in the NQ.

Plan for next 30 trades: 4tick SL, 4tick PT in the ES, 1 contract. I tried to exit my trades discretionary, but to be honest I am not sure if it was better in this way. After 30 trades I will have atleast some statistics.


4 tick stop and 4 tick target: How many trades have to hit the target in order for you to be break even? Don't forget to factor in commisions and slippage.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #12 (permalink)
Prague/Czech/Czech Republic
 
 
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I need 1,08 profitable trades to be break even.
Commisions 4 USD and there is usually no slippage in the ES.

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  #13 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
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Posts: 820 since May 2013
Thanks: 124 given, 2,054 received



Ota Trader View Post
I need 1,08 profitable trades to be break even.
Commisions 4 USD and there is usually no slippage in the ES.

Here is your situation;
Winning trades = $46 ($50 -$4 commish)
Losing trades = $54 ($50 +$4 commish)

I doubt that there is no slippage in ES.
You can close your position at target with a limit order so you wont get any slippage there, but you can only use a stop limit or a market order to get out of a losing trade.
Stop limit is risky because you wont get filled on a quick down move, and market orders fill at the bid. So its quite possible to lose a tick or more with a market order.

So in reality you will probably have a tick slippage on one out of 3 trades. (if not more)

So now your losing trades =$58 ($50 +$4 Commish + $4 slippage)

This means that you have to win 56% of the time, 17 out of the next 30 trades, to slightly break even.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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