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Ota's Trading Journal
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Ota's Trading Journal

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prince George BC Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 591 since May 2013
Thanks: 97 given, 643 received


Ota Trader View Post
Hi all,
after watching new FTs webinar I have decided to continue with my journal. I will post my entries with comments. I am not going to post pre-market analysis because is usually the same as is presenting FT71 in his Trader bite.
The main reason for re-opening my journal is that I am still battling to make a turn in trading. And maybe I can get a good advice here. I moved from NQ to ES because I wasnt fast enought to trade it and I am much better in reading the order flow in the ES than in the NQ.

Plan for next 30 trades: 4tick SL, 4tick PT in the ES, 1 contract. I tried to exit my trades discretionary, but to be honest I am not sure if it was better in this way. After 30 trades I will have atleast some statistics.


4 tick stop and 4 tick target: How many trades have to hit the target in order for you to be break even? Don't forget to factor in commisions and slippage.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #12 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Prague/Czech/Czech Republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 8 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 7 received

I need 1,08 profitable trades to be break even.
Commisions 4 USD and there is usually no slippage in the ES.

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  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prince George BC Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 591 since May 2013
Thanks: 97 given, 643 received



Ota Trader View Post
I need 1,08 profitable trades to be break even.
Commisions 4 USD and there is usually no slippage in the ES.

Here is your situation;
Winning trades = $46 ($50 -$4 commish)
Losing trades = $54 ($50 +$4 commish)

I doubt that there is no slippage in ES.
You can close your position at target with a limit order so you wont get any slippage there, but you can only use a stop limit or a market order to get out of a losing trade.
Stop limit is risky because you wont get filled on a quick down move, and market orders fill at the bid. So its quite possible to lose a tick or more with a market order.

So in reality you will probably have a tick slippage on one out of 3 trades. (if not more)

So now your losing trades =$58 ($50 +$4 Commish + $4 slippage)

This means that you have to win 56% of the time, 17 out of the next 30 trades, to slightly break even.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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