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Trading with Fibs


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Trading with Fibs

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  #1 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
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Trading: /ES /CL
 
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Hello futures.io (formerly BMT),

I have decided to start a journal here to keep myself more accountable, and to force myself to review every trading day to spot pitfalls, strengths, and prepare for the next day.

A little about me. My current trading style is that of Dave Halsey from eminiaddict. I don't want to go into too much about that since it will make me look like I'm advertising but that is where I learned my current trading style and it is so far the most suitable one for me. I trade /ES, /6E, /6B, and /TF with it. That is the bulk of my trading. I also trade /CL ACD style but I have personalized it so it gives me very little trades due to my risk parameters. For the purpose of this thread, I will only be reviewing my fibs trade.

A little bit more about me. I started in 2008 when my friend introduced me to the stock market. I began trading after learning some simple TA. My instrument then was options and occasionally pennies. I remember my first option trade ever. It gave me a 20% loss in my account. It was the day before RIMM earnings. Because I was so smart, I thought if I bought a call and a put with stops, I will profit when RIMM opens the next day and will rocket one way or the other and I will profit. Well, I didn't think about what happens if it doesn't move after earnings and that was where my loss came in. Both my positions were stopped out. That was my first trade ever and the most memorable one.

It only took a few months before I suffered a total loss of 80% in my account. At that point, I decided to put whatever funds I have left into a micro stock. I did my own research and felt certain this will be a big win many years from now (I was thinking long term). The stock was ASTC and I was entered at a price of 1.25. I checked in a few months later and found this has gone up to $4! I didn't take profit. I kept telling myself, this is going to be my first 10 bagger ever! I was 99% sure! Another few months passed, I checked in and I was down 50%.

I raised the white flag and exited the market.

About two years since, I rediscovered trading. This time in the FOREX market. I was fortunate enough to stumble upon the giant price action thread on FF and learned everything there. I began practicing it on demo, then on a real mini account, and I was winning consistently. Here's the problem, it trades on a daily time frame. With a small account, it will take forever to build it up. When stops are 100-200 pips and account size is small, I'm pretty much trading at 10cents per pip. I can fund a larger account so that I can trade larger size, but the problem remains the same it takes too long. I have to wait a few days or maybe a week just to see a 1% gain in my account. That's when I told myself I need to migrate into lower time frame.

I eventually came into futures and traded /ES on 3min time frame with just price action. I use a combination of MA's, Pivots, and Candle patterns. I thought this was my holy grail. I was averaging 67% win with 1:1.5 risk/reward. I was doing this for a while until I realized sitting in front of the computer all day is not preferable to my lifestyle. I am soon to be a graduate student in Accountancy (yes I still have to go to school and work..unlike some of you here ) and I won't be able to monitor the market at all times. I need a way to trade just off predetermined price levels. I stumbled upon eminiaddict and ACD a few months back and have never looked back.

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  #3 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
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So the philosophy behind the fibs trading is to trade 50% retracements with a predetermined target. A picture is worth 1000 words so let me showcase the last trade I took before the end of week yesterday.

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  #4 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
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Doubleclick,

I have a question about how you drew your retracement. You went from a swing high to another high. I've always thought you go from a swing low to high if retracing an uptrend and swing high to low if retracing a down trend. Is your method something you found that has worked for you?

David

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  #5 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
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Trading: /ES /CL
 
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David_R View Post
Doubleclick,

I have a question about how you drew your retracement. You went from a swing high to another high. I've always thought you go from a swing low to high if retracing an uptrend and swing high to low if retracing a down trend. Is your method something you found that has worked for you?

David

The way I learned it, there are two ways to draw the fibs.

Traditional - which is just swing high to low or vice versa as you pointed out

Extensions - which is drawn from high to high or low to low

One of the member was kind enough to make a video on how he uses it. It was through his video that I discovered this method:


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  #6 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 117 since Feb 2012
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I have tried many trading methods and what I learned is that simplicity is the best. The less I have on my screen, the better. When I used to trade with MA's, one MA will give a signal long while the other will give me short. Conflicting signals give me headaches. I know some people can utilize it properly and make a lot of money with it, but I can't. What I come to understand is that everything works and nothing works. Trading is highly individualized.

A problem I struggle with (being in west coast) is waking up early enough before the market opens. I was never much of a morning person and I have slowly been working on trying to fix it. I have trouble sleeping at night which leads to waking up late in the morning (hence missing some trades).

For example, yesterday there was a trade for /TF at 700AM PST. I actually woke up half an hour later and missed this. It would've been my only trade for the day and all that I needed. I'm slowly fixing this habit for sure though.

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  #7 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
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Good luck with your journal 2. It will help you tremendously. I was a member of e-mini addict 2 years ago. I am not sure where he gets his energy from. He patiently answers questions all day long. I just could not figure out how he draws his fibs. I will see if i can pick up from your journal his method. 2 questions

1) What is FF thread?

2) I am always looking for ACD threads to get new ideas? I have found some on internet but they have not been active in a while. Link please.





DoubleClick View Post
Hello futures.io (formerly BMT),

I have decided to start a journal here to keep myself more accountable, and to force myself to review every trading day to spot pitfalls, strengths, and prepare for the next day.

A little about me. My current trading style is that of Dave Halsey from eminiaddict. I don't want to go into too much about that since it will make me look like I'm advertising but that is where I learned my current trading style and it is so far the most suitable one for me. I trade /ES, /6E, /6B, and /TF with it. That is the bulk of my trading. I also trade /CL ACD style but I have personalized it so it gives me very little trades due to my risk parameters. For the purpose of this thread, I will only be reviewing my fibs trade.

A little bit more about me. I started in 2008 when my friend introduced me to the stock market. I began trading after learning some simple TA. My instrument then was options and occasionally pennies. I remember my first option trade ever. It gave me a 20% loss in my account. It was the day before RIMM earnings. Because I was so smart, I thought if I bought a call and a put with stops, I will profit when RIMM opens the next day and will rocket one way or the other and I will profit. Well, I didn't think about what happens if it doesn't move after earnings and that was where my loss came in. Both my positions were stopped out. That was my first trade ever and the most memorable one.

It only took a few months before I suffered a total loss of 80% in my account. At that point, I decided to put whatever funds I have left into a micro stock. I did my own research and felt certain this will be a big win many years from now (I was thinking long term). The stock was ASTC and I was entered at a price of 1.25. I checked in a few months later and found this has gone up to $4! I didn't take profit. I kept telling myself, this is going to be my first 10 bagger ever! I was 99% sure! Another few months passed, I checked in and I was down 50%.

I raised the white flag and exited the market.

About two years since, I rediscovered trading. This time in the FOREX market. I was fortunate enough to stumble upon the giant price action thread on FF and learned everything there. I began practicing it on demo, then on a real mini account, and I was winning consistently. Here's the problem, it trades on a daily time frame. With a small account, it will take forever to build it up. When stops are 100-200 pips and account size is small, I'm pretty much trading at 10cents per pip. I can fund a larger account so that I can trade larger size, but the problem remains the same it takes too long. I have to wait a few days or maybe a week just to see a 1% gain in my account. That's when I told myself I need to migrate into lower time frame.

I eventually came into futures and traded /ES on 3min time frame with just price action. I use a combination of MA's, Pivots, and Candle patterns. I thought this was my holy grail. I was averaging 67% win with 1:1.5 risk/reward. I was doing this for a while until I realized sitting in front of the computer all day is not preferable to my lifestyle. I am soon to be a graduate student in Accountancy (yes I still have to go to school and work..unlike some of you here ) and I won't be able to monitor the market at all times. I need a way to trade just off predetermined price levels. I stumbled upon eminiaddict and ACD a few months back and have never looked back.


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  #8 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
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The way that guy does his fibs makes sense to me but it seems like anything that twitches gets fibbed....is there such a thing as over fibbing

I look at a lot of the moves in a similar fashion so I'm not knocking it...I just do it mentally as opposed to drawing all the lines.

I think FF is Forex Factory......

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  #9 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Congrats on taking this step to start the journal.

Mike

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  #10 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
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mfbreakout View Post
Good luck with your journal 2. It will help you tremendously. I was a member of e-mini addict 2 years ago. I am not sure where he gets his energy from. He patiently answers questions all day long. I just could not figure out how he draws his fibs. I will see if i can pick up from your journal his method. 2 questions

1) What is FF thread?

2) I am always looking for ACD threads to get new ideas? I have found some on internet but they have not been active in a while. Link please.

1.) As kbit pointed out, FF is Forex Factory. I truly learned a lot from there.
2.) Not a lot of ACD threads out there. There were a few in FF but they aren't active anymore. Yours is just about the only one! Along with another from ET but I really dislike the forum system there.

Here's one of them: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=285053

I'll have to agree with you there. DH is very enthusiastic with what he does and he doesn't mind answering the same question over and over again until we get it. He mentioned not using this on /CL before because of its participants. I will have to test it out though!


kbit View Post
The way that guy does his fibs makes sense to me but it seems like anything that twitches gets fibbed....is there such a thing as over fibbing

I look at a lot of the moves in a similar fashion so I'm not knocking it...I just do it mentally as opposed to drawing all the lines.

I think FF is Forex Factory......

It gets messy sometimes but I keep mine clean lol

Eyeballing it works too I believe, it's just half of a swing after all!



Big Mike View Post
Congrats on taking this step to start the journal.

Mike

Thank you

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  #11 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
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My current trade going into Europe open. Had a long trigger. Stop loss is 2 ticks below the 61.8% and PT at 1.3290

**edit moved PT to 1.3284

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  #12 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
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Going into pre-market tomorrow. This is my only game plan. Had a little typo there but too late to change it.

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  #13 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
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Mid-day update before going into the doldrum.

Last night's trade went 30 ticks in my favor before stopping me out for -16 ticks. If I was awake, the stop would have been moved to breakeven. But because this is an overnight trade when I cannot monitor, it is the risk that I am aware of and have readily assumed.


I'm in two positions now.

Not sure how to attach images...it crashes my browser every time I clicked on manage attachments.

Edit** yay it works now

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 DoubleClick 
California
 
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EOD report.

One can assume Monday to be a slow day but today has been even slower. I'm thinking maybe due to tomorrow being May 1st? A short squeeze was anticipated at the 50% retracement which was where I entered long. Holding through today had been a real test of patience. Slow grind + slowly losing positing took its mental toll. The 61.8% proved to hold its position and we finally saw price climb towards the EOD. I will be holding my position into potentially filling today's gap tomorrow and towards target at 1408.

Euros first target is at 1.3253. However, I am thinking about aiming for the larger PT at 1.33 now that we saw participation at the 1.3217 50% retracement.

So far for the day, I'm in the red from last night's trade and my gains are still unrealized.

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 DoubleClick 
California
 
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Going into pre-market tomorrow I don't have much to do besides trailing since I'm in two positions and cannot open anymore. I have moved my stop for /6E to breakeven and /ES stop remains unchanged.

Currently, /6E is at +17 ticks and /ES is at +2pts. Still small compared to what they will be if they hit their PT. Have to be patient with this one.

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  #16 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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DoubleClick View Post
Not sure how to attach images...it crashes my browser every time I clicked on manage attachments.

Edit** yay it works now

If you are able to reproduce this at-will, please send me a private message with your exact browser version and the steps to reproduce. No one has ever reported this kind of problem.

Mike

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  #17 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
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Big Mike View Post
If you are able to reproduce this at-will, please send me a private message with your exact browser version and the steps to reproduce. No one has ever reported this kind of problem.

Mike

No problem Big Mike. I think the error was on my end. Everything is fine after I restarted the computer

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  #18 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
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/6E trade hit its PT at 1.3272 for +44. Chart 1 shows PT. Chart 2 shows plan for next trade

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 DoubleClick 
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3267 entry made. PT was hit before I could even make this update post. Made a quick +20

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 DoubleClick 
California
 
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My /ES trade from yesterday is finally doing something. There's a potential to add on a position.

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 DoubleClick 
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Big sell off in euro. Larger time frame retracement target hit.

Will be looking for next support.

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 DoubleClick 
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Potential support for /6E. In cases like this, we look into the micro charts for signals if support (or resistance) will hold.

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 DoubleClick 
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I decided to take my profit early at 1406 for my /ES trade. +13 points. Will re-enter at next retracement

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 DoubleClick 
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Now that the -23.6% retracement has been blown through, next measured move for a long signal will be an extension (high to high). I will be trailing these highs until it retraces to the 50% but for now 1407.50 is where the buy limit will be at.

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 DoubleClick 
California
 
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The 50% retracement support mentioned earlier in 6E has confirmed that it will hold because the retracement drawn from Anchor A to high has hit its target at point B. Now, new anchor from point AA will be drawn to high and I will be looking for long at its 50% retracement point C. If it does not retrace and blows through target, I will be looking for extensions.

/ES long was entered at 1407.50, it came close to being stopped out so far. If it fails, next long level will be 1402.50

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  #26 (permalink)
 srgtroy 
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I'm really enjoying your journal. The method you use is quite interesting. I am still trying to wrap my head around drawing fib extensions high to high, as I am so used to using the actual extension tool with three points to measure an extension, but you have demonstrated that your way obviously works as well. Anyway, as you mentioned, the simplicity, excellent built-in risk/reward and the set and forget element of this method make it appealing. Thanks for sharing and keep it up.

Learn The Rules Well So You Can Break Them Effectively
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  #27 (permalink)
 DoubleClick 
California
 
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DoubleClick View Post
The 50% retracement support mentioned earlier in 6E has confirmed that it will hold because the retracement drawn from Anchor A to high has hit its target at point B. Now, new anchor from point AA will be drawn to high and I will be looking for long at its 50% retracement point C. If it does not retrace and blows through target, I will be looking for extensions.

/ES long was entered at 1407.50, it came close to being stopped out so far. If it fails, next long level will be 1402.50

Both trades were taken out yesterday and I have not put any new position since except the 1402.50 long which was stopped out as well. Now there is confirmation that the current 50% retracement from an extension may also hold and I am anticipating a gap fill. Long entry was made at 1391.75. I also got a very nice confirmation with a bullish engulfing.

Also anticipating a trade for /6B. The 1.6177 has validated its support and now I will trade the first 50% retracement of its current swing.

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 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: /ES /CL
 
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srgtroy View Post
I'm really enjoying your journal. The method you use is quite interesting. I am still trying to wrap my head around drawing fib extensions high to high, as I am so used to using the actual extension tool with three points to measure an extension, but you have demonstrated that your way obviously works as well. Anyway, as you mentioned, the simplicity, excellent built-in risk/reward and the set and forget element of this method make it appealing. Thanks for sharing and keep it up.

It also provides a point of reference as MF pointed out in The Logical Trader. It gives me a level to lean on and a level to know where I am wrong and what next. The difficult part in trading like this is knowing where I am. Sometimes (such as the care of euro yesterday), I can be in a retracement within a retracement within a retracement....That's the hard part for me. If I know where I am, everything makes sense because there is a set of defined rule to follow.

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 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
 
Posts: 117 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 15 given, 125 received

The /6B made its 50% retracement. The 20EMA being there at the same time is even better.

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 DoubleClick 
California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4, TOS
Trading: /ES /CL
 
Posts: 117 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 15 given, 125 received

My long entry for /ES at 1391.75 was based on the 50% retracement as seen in chart. The target for this retracement is 1421.75. This is going to be a multi-day position, and it will be trailed by the 61.8% which is currently 1393. Nothing much to do here now that I'm in a longer term trade.

As for /6B, nothing has changed since its initial entry. PT is still at 1.6218

I'm really enjoying this form of trading. I don't myself constantly staring at the screen and continuously coming up with differing opinions. After many years, I firmly believe a mechanical approach is more suitable for my personality and style.

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