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Short term TF trading


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Short term TF trading

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  #601 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

This first trade was counter-trend I know, but I saw it as a nice break out failure trade. Price broke below a support level, and also to another support level, then quickly rejected the breakout. Turns out this was a perfect time for a counter trend trade as the low of the day had been printed. I exited half the position as price broke below the previous swing low on the lower 20 tick timeframe by a tick or two. Probably needed a little more breathing room. Exited 2nd half at breakeven due to being afraid the trade wouldn't work out.


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  #602 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

The 2nd trade I suppose was taken because I didn't money on the first, as well as the fact that up until I entered the short, price had only slowly worked higher (which looks more like a pullback to me for the downtrend to continue). Pulled back to the previous swing lows and showed some strength to the downside so I hopped in. I'm sure there's something I'm missing here, but I can't see what's really wrong with it. Look forward to input.


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  #603 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

After that last strong push upward that stopped me out of trade 2, I'm bullish now. I get a pullback to the same level I went short off of, and fade it. Profits taken nicely at resistance.


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  #604 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

At the entry on trade 4, I'm seeing that yes we've had some strength to the upside, but then we had a strong push down after forming a double top at resistance. I fade the pullback up looking for the downtrend (which still is in tact according to my analysis) to continue.

I was wrong and this was just a complex pullback to form two right side shoulders on an inverse h&s pattern here at support.

In hindsight the trade could have been avoided. My pattern based entry on the lower timeframe was not valid. I thought it formed a lower high, but it didn't give enough confirmation of forming that 2nd swing high and simply continued against me.


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  #605 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I don't get in for the whole giant upswing due to no real pullbacks, only a couple tiny blips on the way up. Then I get what looks to be a double bottom pullback, and enter. (triple bottom on the lower timeframe actually.) Doesnt' work out.

I suppose a thing to note is the bearish engulfing on both attempts to push higher. More of a double top than a double bottom on this timeframe at least.


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  #606 (permalink)
 josh 
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IT7, I know you like to trade early in the day, but your first hour or two of trading is often when the market is gearing up for the US open, which means doing lots of "weeble wobble" (if that's clear). Sometimes the market will establish direction before the cash open, but very often it does not and the pre-open moves are tests of local extremes. I know some people who take trades pre-open to establish a position prior to news, or for some other reason, but the bulk of your trading seems to be at a time of day when the market is most uncertain. Not that I won't take a trade before 9:30ET, but the market is notorious for faking left, right, left, .... and then only by 10am or so (give or take) does it really show its hand. By the way, I know your previous examples do not fit this category, this is just a general thought/question.

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  #607 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Here's a problem with the way I analyze trend. On days like this, with large direct swings, the level at which I will declare a trend change is VERY far away, so I'm still in an "uptrend" as price is (in hindsight) in a clear downtrend. maybe this is something I will just accept, because I still have an edge that is profitable despite being wrong in this type of market environment. Maybe I will get better at recognizing these days and switch to more of a scalping style, or more of a position trader for large swings. I don't know at this point.

Trades are another attempt to get long as price shows it's rounding. Then a too quick entry short on a tiny move up, then a pretty good entry short, but price acted pretty weird and I didn't protect profits well enough.


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  #608 (permalink)
 cmmichaels 
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indextrader7 View Post
Here's a problem with the way I analyze trend. On days like this, with large direct swings, the level at which I will declare a trend change is VERY far away, so I'm still in an "uptrend" as price is (in hindsight) in a clear downtrend. maybe this is something I will just accept, because I still have an edge that is profitable despite being wrong in this type of market environment. Maybe I will get better at recognizing these days and switch to more of a scalping style, or more of a position trader for large swings. I don't know at this point.

Trades are another attempt to get long as price shows it's rounding. Then a too quick entry short on a tiny move up, then a pretty good entry short, but price acted pretty weird and I didn't protect profits well enough.

Are you using the Lance Beggs definition of a trend change IT7?

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  #609 (permalink)
 quantismo 
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You were looking for some input on your rough patch lately and since your posts are my favorite of all on the forum here and have helped me to be a better trader I just wanted to give you my insights on what may help some.

I trade the 4 range chart on the tf on my main screen then watch for high prababilty price action entries, I like to see some confirmation on my 2nd screen with a $tick chart using my TOS platform from TD Ameritrade and on my third screen I have a basic 1 minute candlestick chart with updown volume bars and stochastics. Nothing fancy in any of these but I find quite often I can get a better read on where price may go if I combine the information I see on all 3 screens vs just the 4 range screen.
You Usually do a very good job at managing your trades once in them so I dont think you need any outside advice on that.
Thanks Quantismo

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  #610 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

What a week this is. I went 7/7 winners today, and made nearly double what I lost yesterday. I guess it all averages out to my usual average stats. Just goes to show not to get too excited about any single session... given that you are following your rules and such.

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  #611 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Could have had a much bigger day had I let a few trades run farther. It's always a balance though. Today I was clearly managing trades very very tightly, so the trade off is that I only ran half a position or none on some potential bigger winners. Ok by me though. Posted the average ticks per contract p/l beside each entry.


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  #612 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I have come to the realization that I've been letting stats get in the way of my trading a bit. Odd, seeing as how keeping them is supposed to help your trading.

The problem is mainly based on my psychological view on my win:loss ratio. In the past, I would purposely not take small gains on trades, and place the stop at BE or for a small loss. I thought this was helpful in that I was giving the trade a chance to be a winner, while protecting against losses. The problem is that often times I knew that the trade was no longer a good one, but simply hoped it would make a miracle turn in my favor. 95% of the time the stop would just be hit, when I COULD have taken 2,3 or sometimes 5 or 6 ticks of profits.

Stats are important, but you must be self aware of how they may be affecting your decision making during trades. For me, I think I need to get back to focusing on making ticks and not losing ticks. Then I can MONITOR my stats to see if changes need to be made in my trading. Not monitor my trading to try to influence my stats. Strange how things work sometimes.

Just thought I'd share here.

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  #613 (permalink)
SteveH
Orlando, Florida, USA
 
 
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50% winning pct -> 1.8 to 2.0 max expectation of avg win/loss ratio

70% winning pct -> 1.0 to 1.2

80% winning pct -> 0.5 to 0.8

This is what one can expect as the Law of Large Numbers takes effect on a consistently applied trading approach with a positive expectancy.

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  #614 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Pretty solid today. I've been much more rigid in my trade selection as of late. This is mostly a good thing, but it does pose some problems. For example, I was hesitant to pull the trigger on two great setups today, and thus had to watch them go by once the R:R was bad. I am continually searching for the optimal blend of (A) discretionary trading that allows my subconscious mind to do most of the work and have a freedom of expression, if you will, in my trading; and (B) providing a framework of "rules" and such to prevent errors and keep tight control on risk management.

The recent focus on controlling: risk per trade limits, consecutive losses leading to a timeout, daily loss limits, weekly loss limits, monthly loss limits, maximum contracts (position limits) allowable per 100k, limiting the number of trades per day, and no adding to a losing position, etc.

These things are good for many reasons, but they also change my state of mind, and I am adjusting to more "professional" trading.

Just some things I'm working though, and thought I would share.

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  #615 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


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  #616 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Wow, that was fun to just watch.

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  #617 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Just one of those days. Barely down on the day, practically breakeven day.

1. Breakeven on P1, +10 on P2. (P1 is "part 1")

Nice long entry off support level.

2. -3.5

Idea was wrong, but I was early. Frustration led to standing aside once the real trade showed up.

3. -3

Pretty much a blind short limit entry at the resistance level. Quickly proved wrong. Well managed.

4. P1 +3, P2 +4

Nice pullback to the previous swing high, took what I could get given the choppy action.

5. -10

Was "certain" that the up move had failed and would reverse back into the range. Not so.


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  #618 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I've got to learn how to trade days like today better. Wide swinging days. I end up looking for pullbacks, for example when we have a large move up.... I'm bullish, so I'm looking to enter long on a pullback. When I get what looks like a pullback, I enter long, and it just keeps going down down down.

Anyone have any wisdom on this?

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  #619 (permalink)
 Beljevina 
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indextrader7 View Post
I've got to learn how to trade days like today better. Wide swinging days. I end up looking for pullbacks, for example when we have a large move up.... I'm bullish, so I'm looking to enter long on a pullback. When I get what looks like a pullback, I enter long, and it just keeps going down down down.

Anyone have any wisdom on this?

I'm a big believer in the technical nature of TF moves, as far as fibs of both today's and yesterday's PA are concerned, as well as where large volume is transacted. I'd posted an analysis of yesterday's moves based on that here.

I won't get into uber-detail for today - and did not trade this today - but note the open of today had yesterday's close provide firm resistance and pressure down. There was a small bounce into the PP, but it failed, although the 50% of yesterday's range (the left-of-the-line markings, just before 09:00) provided initial support, and then 61.8% of yesterday held it to the tick. The peak volume dashed line at 844.8 seems to have resistance for now, but hopefully the PP provides support from underneath. Note that we're also at the 50% of today's range here. 23% & 78% are also highly useful, as 'last pit stops' for PA.

Days like today - awaiting Benny QE3 - serve to largely hold a vigil prior to the news, meaning, we range range aimlessly. As long as it is true aimlessness, or, there's a bias to good news, these levels can be helpful IMO.


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  #620 (permalink)
 josh 
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indextrader7 View Post
I've got to learn how to trade days like today better. Wide swinging days. I end up looking for pullbacks, for example when we have a large move up.... I'm bullish, so I'm looking to enter long on a pullback. When I get what looks like a pullback, I enter long, and it just keeps going down down down.

Anyone have any wisdom on this?

Yes -- Fed moves almost always feature very large swings in both directions. In short, look for a wild swing, and usually a reversal almost to the point of the origination of the move, and then it is more safe to enter, only if you have reason to still take the trade of course. Look back over some fed days and rarely is it one way straight out of the gate with continuation--market must test the genuine-ness of the move by retesting deep.

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  #621 (permalink)
Amnesia
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im curious, how big is your stop (or stops) for most of the trades?

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  #622 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


Amnesia View Post
im curious, how big is your stop (or stops) for most of the trades?

Most always within 12 ticks.

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  #623 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Breakout trade. I was looking for a deeper pullback, but it couldn't do it. I reluctantly took it, but turned out nicely.


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  #624 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Started off the day with a great trade. Then got caught up (mentally) in a view on what the market "should do" for a while, and gave back profits. It took the market showing an entirely new dynamic to shake me out of it. But the good news is that once the new dynamic/environment/movement set in, I capitalized on it.


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  #625 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Interesting to me that volume is still increasing 6 minutes after the release.

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  #626 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Pretty good day today, did a great job keeping losses small. Had a few trades where I only got profits on part 1, but that is just fine, I was giving part 2 a chance to run. Stayed the course and made my 1% for the day.


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  #627 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I had a nice read on a failure to continue lower as it "should have" to continue the flow, and took a countertrend entry long.

The problem was with my management of the trade.

I had nearly 20 ticks of profit... and greed in my eyes. Here's the entry and exit on a 2 range chart.


But notice the highlighted selling that took place earlier this morning on the 3 min chart in the area. Should have certainly taken at least half off at that level.




Live and learn. Keep trying to improve.

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  #628 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Solid day today. 6 trades. 67% winners. +20 ticks

Both losing trades were against the flow. All winning trades were with the flow. Hmmm...... I think I've typed something like that before... maybe 50 times before. The problem is that I think I'm too smart to just go with the flow all the time. My amazing analysis is just too advanced for that simplicity. haha





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  #629 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Solid day today. 6 trades. 67% winners. +20 ticks

Both losing trades were against the flow. All winning trades were with the flow. Hmmm...... I think I've typed something like that before... maybe 50 times before. The problem is that I think I'm too smart to just go with the flow all the time. My amazing analysis is just too advanced for that simplicity. haha





I fight this myself, brother... I love to fade big moves or channels or....


AJ
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  #630 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Here's a look at the morning session, and some mistakes I found in my analysis (or lack thereof):

All is shown from the 2 range chart.

Good first trade, long off support level. Then I mismanaged the next trade, and had the stop loss for part one way too tight. Price could easily retrace to that level, and it did, without invalidating that trade idea.



The next trade was pretty bad. I got back in, long, right at the previous chop level (resistance now) which is also the open level for the day.



Now as I'm stopped out, I immediately re-enter the long trade. Just ignoring everything and wanting to be right at that point.


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  #631 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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indextrader7 View Post
Here's a look at the morning session

Could you not cut off the x and y axis so that we can see time and price?

Mike

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  #632 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Now I short right at a support level. Price has printed a decent sized down leg at this point, I'm chasing the move.




Finally a nice trade that makes sense to take. Bringing me into profitable territory for the session.




It's always amazing to see how amateur many of my mistakes are. I mean, really dumb stuff. I think my focus for the near future will be focusing on my mistakes. I've probably always leaned toward that type of review, but I feel like I've gotten away from it lately.

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  #633 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


Big Mike View Post
Could you not cut off the x and y axis so that we can see time and price?

Mike

Those axes don't matter for my journal purposes here. This is about the analysis, and I want a zoomed in focus of the price action, but just for your own purposes here is a full chart.


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  #634 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

It's nice to see that going though a funk/drawdown in my trading over the past couple months has only done as much damage as it has. I'm pulling through, and bright days are ahead of me. Right now (pulling into profitability) is the time where I tend to let back down. I can not do that. I won't get sloppy.

Here's some performance data starting August and going through Friday.


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  #635 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

gap filled

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  #636 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I'm considering changing my daily maximum loss of 2% to a WEEKLY max loss of 2%. My logic is as follows:

I read about a hedge fund guy that manages his traders. He gives them a 3% stop out (practically lose your job if you hit it) level for the year, and it resets annually. He's structuring his traders like trades themselves. He may have a couple guys stop out at 3% and go home, but the rest will generate 5%, 10%, 20% returns for the year. Excellent risk to reward is achieved.

Then I thought about my daily 2% stop, and the fact that most of my good days I make 1%. So good days are 1% while bad days will be -2% ? Not a good risk to reward there. Then I thought about my good weeks which are typically 4% to 5%. So if I make my weekly stop 2%, and my good weeks are 4% to 5% up, this creates a nice risk to reward skew on a weekly basis.

We can look to my actual results for some more information in making this decision. Over the past 124 trading days, I my average winning day is 1.2% and my average losing day is -1.3% but I win 77% of those days.

Maybe I don't need to change anything. I have no idea. Maybe implementing this would be really valuable.

Possibly the most important thing to consider is how this change would affect my trading behavior, the psychological side of this coin. I would take very small risks early in the week, and as I booked profits I would expand my risk taking capacity proportionally. There is a huge difference in risk taking capacity for being able to risk 2% each day, versus knowing it's all you have to risk being stopped out for the week. Maybe it's mostly mental, but my biggest incentive is being taken out of the game. Being taken out for a week would be very much motivation not to let that happen.

It's so hard to know what is the right thing to do often times in trading. Honestly, I should consult someone with much more experience in trading risk management.

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  #637 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

blah blah blah.... blah blah blah blah


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  #638 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

More information to help figure this thing out. Daily variance graph. Shows the absolute value of the difference between the highest account value and the lowest account value for any given day. This is different from losses experienced from the starting account value for the day, this would be largest intraday drawdown experienced from any high point.




If anyone can think of some other type of data we should be considering, then I'm all ears.

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  #639 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Do all my profits simply come from the fact that I can oscillate my account value up and down by a percent or so each day, and walk away when it is up???

Surely it isn't so... I don't know which way is up anymore.

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  #640 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

On individual trade level:
avg win:loss ratio is about 1.5
avg win % is typically 50%

Daily view:
avg winning:losing day about 1:1
winning days 77% of the time

Intraday, I have an average fluctuation of +/- 1%.

We're still considering what type of weekly stop (if any, or any type of optimal stop levels) will be optimal, given how I tend to perform.

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  #641 (permalink)
 Traderwolf 
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indextrader7 View Post
On individual trade level:
avg win:loss ratio is about 1.5
avg win % is typically 50%

Daily view:
avg winning:losing day about 1:1
winning days 77% of the time

Intraday, I have an average fluctuation of +/- 1%.

We're still considering what type of weekly stop (if any, or any type of optimal stop levels) will be optimal, given how I tend to perform.

Questions for you:

1. What is your max loss % for each trade?

2. Do you trade all day every day or does your plan call for only certain trading times?

3. Do you cease trading when a certain max profit level is hit each day or week?


Wolf

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  #642 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


Traderwolf View Post
Questions for you:

1. What is your max loss % for each trade?

2. Do you trade all day every day or does your plan call for only certain trading times?

3. Do you cease trading when a certain max profit level is hit each day or week?


Wolf

1. It has varied through time. Ranging from 0.5% to 1%. Currently it's under question. When I figure out the correct weekly stop out level, I'll adjust individual position size accordingly. (at least i think that's how it will work)

2. I typically trade a couple hours a day, usually the AM session.

3. No I have no rule with that. Although, I do know that sometimes when I am up for the day, it influences my decision to be done for the day.

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  #643 (permalink)
 imPairsonator 
Thessaloniki, Greece
 
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indextrader7 View Post
I'm considering changing my daily maximum loss of 2% to a WEEKLY max loss of 2%. My logic is as follows:

I read about a hedge fund guy that manages his traders. He gives them a 3% stop out (practically lose your job if you hit it) level for the year, and it resets annually. He's structuring his traders like trades themselves. He may have a couple guys stop out at 3% and go home, but the rest will generate 5%, 10%, 20% returns for the year. Excellent risk to reward is achieved.

Then I thought about my daily 2% stop, and the fact that most of my good days I make 1%. So good days are 1% while bad days will be -2% ? Not a good risk to reward there. Then I thought about my good weeks which are typically 4% to 5%. So if I make my weekly stop 2%, and my good weeks are 4% to 5% up, this creates a nice risk to reward skew on a weekly basis.

We can look to my actual results for some more information in making this decision. Over the past 124 trading days, I my average winning day is 1.2% and my average losing day is -1.3% but I win 77% of those days.

Maybe I don't need to change anything. I have no idea. Maybe implementing this would be really valuable.

Possibly the most important thing to consider is how this change would affect my trading behavior, the psychological side of this coin. I would take very small risks early in the week, and as I booked profits I would expand my risk taking capacity proportionally. There is a huge difference in risk taking capacity for being able to risk 2% each day, versus knowing it's all you have to risk being stopped out for the week. Maybe it's mostly mental, but my biggest incentive is being taken out of the game. Being taken out for a week would be very much motivation not to let that happen.

It's so hard to know what is the right thing to do often times in trading. Honestly, I should consult someone with much more experience in trading risk management.

I believe you're looking at this the wrong way. A stop for a single trade is completely different from a stop for a strategy or a trader as a whole. The stop for any one trade will be strategically placed and adjusted to the conditions; a simple 2% stop for yourself will not.

The most important question here is: are your returns serially correlated? i.e. if one of your trades is a loser, does this influence the expected value of the next trade?

If losers tend to be followed by more losers, then a stop may be prudent.
If there is no change, or if losers tend to be followed by winners, a stop is a bad idea as you'll be taking losing trades, then missing out on trades with positive expected value.

In any case, it should be relatively easy to export your trades to excel and see what would happen if you had an x% weekly loss limit...use WEEKNUM() to detect every week, then reconstruct your equity curve ignoring any trades that happened after hitting the loss limit.

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  #644 (permalink)
 mstier 
San Francisco
 
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indextrader7 View Post
I'm considering changing my daily maximum loss of 2% to a WEEKLY max loss of 2%. My logic is as follows:

I read about a hedge fund guy that manages his traders. He gives them a 3% stop out (practically lose your job if you hit it) level for the year, and it resets annually. He's structuring his traders like trades themselves. He may have a couple guys stop out at 3% and go home, but the rest will generate 5%, 10%, 20% returns for the year. Excellent risk to reward is achieved.

Then I thought about my daily 2% stop, and the fact that most of my good days I make 1%. So good days are 1% while bad days will be -2% ? Not a good risk to reward there. Then I thought about my good weeks which are typically 4% to 5%. So if I make my weekly stop 2%, and my good weeks are 4% to 5% up, this creates a nice risk to reward skew on a weekly basis.

We can look to my actual results for some more information in making this decision. Over the past 124 trading days, I my average winning day is 1.2% and my average losing day is -1.3% but I win 77% of those days.

Maybe I don't need to change anything. I have no idea. Maybe implementing this would be really valuable.

Possibly the most important thing to consider is how this change would affect my trading behavior, the psychological side of this coin. I would take very small risks early in the week, and as I booked profits I would expand my risk taking capacity proportionally. There is a huge difference in risk taking capacity for being able to risk 2% each day, versus knowing it's all you have to risk being stopped out for the week. Maybe it's mostly mental, but my biggest incentive is being taken out of the game. Being taken out for a week would be very much motivation not to let that happen.

It's so hard to know what is the right thing to do often times in trading. Honestly, I should consult someone with much more experience in trading risk management.

Well, I'm definitely not someone with a lot of experience in managing trading risk. But hey I get a lot of benefit out of your posts, so maybe I can add a thought or two. I'll only address the idea of a weekly draw-down limit of 2%.

You said your good weeks are +4-5%. What are your average bad weeks? Are they below -1%, greater than 2%? I've noticed that some of your good days have less-than-stellar starts and then great finishes, is there a big % of your profitable weeks that start out poorly but end up well into the black? If so, would a 2% weekly loss cause you to miss too many weeks that would end up profitable if they were played through? Or, maybe it's the opposite and losses breed losses for you over the course of a week and the best thing you could do is just chill until Monday..the numbers should help you see that.

It seems to me that maybe your most effective question is about the 2% daily loss you mentioned. Perhaps a tighter stop there would be more appropriate to improve your daily expectancy, which I think is +.71% if I did that right. A tighter daily stop-loss would probably also encourage better handling of losing trades (to avoid getting shut down for the day, because that's never fun), which may help generate very effective process goals (avoid big losing trades feels like a more concrete goal than "don't string two losing days together").

I had to take a break from writing that to run to a couple of classes, so sorry if it didn't come out very coherently.

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 Traderwolf 
Raleigh,NC
 
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indextrader7 View Post
On individual trade level:
avg win:loss ratio is about 1.5
avg win % is typically 50%

Daily view:
avg winning:losing day about 1:1
winning days 77% of the time

Intraday, I have an average fluctuation of +/- 1%.

We're still considering what type of weekly stop (if any, or any type of optimal stop levels) will be optimal, given how I tend to perform.


indextrader7 View Post
1. It has varied through time. Ranging from 0.5% to 1%. Currently it's under question. When I figure out the correct weekly stop out level, I'll adjust individual position size accordingly. (at least i think that's how it will work)

2. I typically trade a couple hours a day, usually the AM session.

3. No I have no rule with that. Although, I do know that sometimes when I am up for the day, it influences my decision to be done for the day.


I have pondered many of the same questions as you.

You have a very good system in terms of positive expectancy and intra day variability. You are winning many more days than losing and your intra day draw downs are very respectable. For that reason, I would think you would rarely hit a reasonable daily stop loss limit and hardly ever hit a weekly either, so I do not think it will make a difference whatsoever.

I look at daily and weekly stop loss limits as limits to be hit to stop trading so I can live to trade another day if something really goes wrong(i.e. if the monkey gets loose, I revenge trade, I am confused by market, etc). Since my individual trade loss limit is set at 1.2% , my daily limit is set at 5%.. so I could not have more than 5 losses in a row or I would have to stop trading for the day. My weekly is set at 15% and I have to stop trading for at least 1 week to assess what is wrong with myself or my plan. These sound wide, but with a 1.2% limit loss per trade, these are not that large.

Since the expectancy numbers on your system seem to be so good, I think you can benefit more($$ that is) by trading more hours in the day and not cut off winning days. When you are " in the zone", why cut it short? Since you do not have any control over when the market will give you a setup your plan desires, why not be available for most of the day so as to capitalize with in-plan trades? There is something to be said for free time and maybe that is reason enough for you to only trade 2 hours/day. Nothing wrong with that either.

Hey.....thanks again for sharing a great journal.. I appreciate it.

Wolf

BTW, when I have hit my daily or weekly loss limits( I have hit weekly once), I have found I am trading outside of plan trades or revenge trading and the monkey has stolen my mouse and clicking away. In both cases, I am able to put the monkey back into the cage and resume profitable trading the next day or week.

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 futuretrader 
Como Italy
 
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imPairsonator View Post

In any case, it should be relatively easy to export your trades to excel and see what would happen if you had an x% weekly loss limit...use WEEKNUM() to detect every week, then reconstruct your equity curve ignoring any trades that happened after hitting the loss limit.

I think that analysis would be crucial. And if it turns out that this would improve your results, it would be worth looking at those weeks in detail to try to find out what was going on.

Given the discretionary nature of your trading, I doubt that a weekly loss limit would make sense unless there were psychological issues at work in your losses, or the market had changed in some way that your analysis was no longer working. Perhaps set level at which you would set aside time to review the week, your emotional state, and the market conditions, in order to see if there was something else going on, rather than just a run of losing trades?

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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Really appreciate the input/feedback guys. Really do.

Looks like yall are right. There are many weeks where I drop below a 2% drawdown, but pull through for a positive week. As long as my mind is right, it looks like I should hang in there and keep plugging away.

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  #648 (permalink)
Bri219
Altamonte Springs,FL
 
 
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Im expecting a move back down from the 855.7-854.0 Supply level.Once it reaches the 840.5-838.5 Demand level down below im looking for a bounce back up.

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Paige
Gainesville, Florida, United S
 
 
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If the figures on your results are actually accurate, you should never stop trading based on some arbitrary win/loss results over some given time frame. Based on your numbers alone, you are not actually trading -- but printing money with each trade you take -- regardless of your win/loss results for a given trade or time period.

Trading results don't understand time periods such as days, weeks, months, etc. These only exist in our minds. A trade today is not different than one tomorrow or next week to the overall results. Same goes for a trade taken when you are way ahead or way behind over a given period.

Now if these "things which don't really exist in statistics" adversely affect your ability to trade consistent to your numbers -- then you have a problem which will not be easy to solve. Attempting to factor ones emotions or superstitions into statistics is a rather comical pursuit at best, I would think.

If you have a true edge and an adequete bankroll to withstand fluctuations -- you will win over the long run. If not you will lose.


Peace,
Paige

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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Classic example of what keeping losers small can do for a trading program today.

Man, sure was frustrating for most of the day today. I was continually wrong, in hindsight I was fighting the bias (so mine was clearly wrong). The thing was that the pre session move was up, and I continually looked for a continuation of that move.

I can see trades 1-5 making sense, but 6-8 ? no way. Hard headed and not mentally flexible enough today cost me. You can see this here on the 250 tick:



The good news is that I kept grinding though and found opportunity after the 9am news. Loaded up on a double size position and made the day profitable.

Horrendous.



Tremendous.


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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Here's a hindsight review of how I should have been seeing things during my crappy session this morning:

We're headed up, uptrend, bias is up, into the market open.

Market opens at 8:30, small swing up to A, and then retrace and push up again to the same level at B. Here there is a strong bear candle that pushes us to new lows.

Then we get a pullback to the breakdown level at C. Then a second failed attempt higher at the same level at D.

E provides a pullback to the previous swing low.

Bottom line, after the double top at A and B, a breakdown of those lows, and especially after the retest at C... short was the only thing I should have been looking for, but I was mostly trying long entries.

Bias is everything.


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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I have launched a CTA called TETRAD Asset Management.

Iíve debated whether to remain anonymous, and simply continue the journal withholding that information, but the pros outweigh the cons. Given the spirit of sharing at futures.io (formerly BMT), and in my continuing that spirit here on this journal, I know without a doubt that including things about starting a CTA and the ups and downs that go with it could provide valuable experience to others. Also a potential benefit is that you never know what attention could be brought to the firm through exposure here. Starting a small firm is very tough, and any exposure is a good thing at this point.

Not much will change with this journal. Iím not trying to sell anyone on the CTA here. This journal is for continual improvement of my trading through the process of consistent trade review and critique. This journal is about my trading journey, and launching this is a big part of that journey.


With love,

Merritt

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 mstier 
San Francisco
 
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Congrats!

I'm excited that you're taking this next step. I hope your confidence continues to grow.

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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
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Excellent day today as far as returns go. I am frustrated that, again, I was fighting the bias for a while, which eats into P/L. Review to come later, I'm still watching for trades at the moment.

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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Trade 1. I thought we would get a push back up to the overnight highs, a breakout play at the open. It didn't look right so I got out at BE.

Trade 2. Recognizing that the breakout failed, I simply reversed to short to take advantage of the other traders on the wrong side of that move.

Trade 3. Small counter-trend entry scalp.

Trade 4. I waited for the 9am news to come out, and often times you get a false breakout as the news is announced. Sure enough we got a break lower that quickly failed so I hopped on board long. Had 10 ticks in the bag, but I was looking for a massive move, ended up losing a tick or two on the trade as it reversed. Should have taken partial profits at the previous swing high. Other than that, I'm ok with the trade.

Trades 5, 6, 7, and 8 I'm not happy with these. I had a view of what I thought was going to happen, and I was continually trying to impose that view on the market instead of being open to what was actually happening. Trade 7 is especially maddening as I allowed it to go way too far and was in a state of "hope".

Trade 9a/b was very solid. Realized my bias error in 5-8, got on the right side and added to the position on a pullback.

Trade 10 was just ok, ended up with a MAE roughly the size of the profit target, which isn't optimal.

Trade 11a/b Good job recognizing the shift in sentiment, and scaling into a nice flowing pullback.




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  #656 (permalink)
 imPairsonator 
Thessaloniki, Greece
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Trade 1. I thought we would get a push back up to the overnight highs, a breakout play at the open. It didn't look right so I got out at BE.

Trade 2. Recognizing that the breakout failed, I simply reversed to short to take advantage of the other traders on the wrong side of that move.

Trade 3. Small counter-trend entry scalp.

Trade 4. I waited for the 9am news to come out, and often times you get a false breakout as the news is announced. Sure enough we got a break lower that quickly failed so I hopped on board long. Had 10 ticks in the bag, but I was looking for a massive move, ended up losing a tick or two on the trade as it reversed. Should have taken partial profits at the previous swing high. Other than that, I'm ok with the trade.

Trades 5, 6, 7, and 8 I'm not happy with these. I had a view of what I thought was going to happen, and I was continually trying to impose that view on the market instead of being open to what was actually happening. Trade 7 is especially maddening as I allowed it to go way too far and was in a state of "hope".

Trade 9a/b was very solid. Realized my bias error in 5-8, got on the right side and added to the position on a pullback.

Trade 10 was just ok, ended up with a MAE roughly the size of the profit target, which isn't optimal.

Trade 11a/b Good job recognizing the shift in sentiment, and scaling into a nice flowing pullback.




Could you elaborate on #10 please? Where did you have your stop and how come you didn't get out earlier? Was it a well-managed trade or do you think you got lucky?

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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
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imPairsonator View Post
Could you elaborate on #10 please? Where did you have your stop and how come you didn't get out earlier? Was it a well-managed trade or do you think you got lucky?

Now that you mention it... That trade should have been scratched after the big bull candle.

The thinking was that we had been on a 75 tick run with very tiny retracements along the way. Given that we had yet to see a decent sized pullback, I halfway expected the complex pullback (two legged pullback) which did end up forming on this trade, but I did not want to miss out on a continuation of a fast move as I expected the down move to continue to the 823 level before seeing real support.

In short, I kinda expected (or feared rather) that I would have to suck up a fairly large MAE on the trade, but didn't want to miss a normal pullback opportunity. Given the over extension of the down move, I still remained confident of the trade despite larger pullback.

Take a look at the PA on the 3min chart. This size pullback seems to just make sense to me. Prints some tails as it retraces back up to the last area of noticeable consolidation for the day.




My confidence tends to increase the more market motion looks trendy. I just downright perform better in those environments. Probably because back when I used to trade currencies, my entire method was based on pullbacks in trending markets back to different moving averages and a MACD signal to pull the trigger.

I ended up rambling a bit, but talking about this trade makes me realize how much of trading is subconscious stuff that's just been ingrained into me through years of screen time. There are just so many things going on, it's impossible to journal it all.

I'm glad you asked the question.

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  #658 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

August -> yesterday


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  #659 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Also from august to present


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  #660 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


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  #661 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Does anyone have any ideas on the most efficient way to go about saving this electronic journal. Being marked as a "vendor" and such doesn't give me confidence that I'll be around here much longer. This journal has been one of my main trading/journaling outlets and I don't want to lose this information.

Any ideas from some smart, tech-savvy people?

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  #663 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
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indextrader7 View Post
Does anyone have any ideas on the most efficient way to go about saving this electronic journal. Being marked as a "vendor" and such doesn't give me confidence that I'll be around here much longer. This journal has been one of my main trading/journaling outlets and I don't want to lose this information.

Any ideas from some smart, tech-savvy people?

There is no danger of the posts prior to this point being deleted. As I explained in my message to you letting you know what our vendor guidelines are, you are free to continue posting so long as your intention is not to promote your business and that you don't use posts for self-promotion.

I thought from your PM response to me you understood and were fine with it, so not sure what has changed.

But no, there is no way to download the thread.

Mike

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DAviator
Fort Collins, Colorado
 
 
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Hi Merritt,

Thanks for the thread. I really enjoy it!

If you'd like your own offline copy, try out
HTTrack. I use it and really like it. Since this is my first post, I can't send the link, but it's just like the name with a dot com following. Freeware.

You can set the link levels to go really deep, but you'll pick up a lot of other threads too. You might have to run it a couple of times on different pages of the thread to get all the posts.

Dave Nadeau
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 iamcereal 
London
 
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I really hope that you will continue your journal!I've recently stumble upon it and found it really useful!Please don't quit posting your recaps and thoughts!

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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
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Big Mike View Post
There is no danger of the posts prior to this point being deleted. As I explained in my message to you letting you know what our vendor guidelines are, you are free to continue posting so long as your intention is not to promote your business and that you don't use posts for self-promotion.

I thought from your PM response to me you understood and were fine with it, so not sure what has changed.

But no, there is no way to download the thread.

Mike

My response to you was polite. Honestly I felt it a slap in the face to label me a vendor within seconds of me announcing the news. This is a trading journal.

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  #667 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
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My response to you was polite. Honestly I felt it a slap in the face to label me a vendor within seconds of me announcing the news. This is a trading journal.

Don't take it personally. There are dozens of new vendors every week, I can't purposely delay labeling them and expect to remember everything. When I see someone is a vendor, they get labeled as a vendor that moment, and they get sent a private messaging informing them of the rules. Then I move on to hundreds of other posts I need to read.

Mike

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 tihfa 
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iamcereal View Post
I really hope that you will continue your journal!I've recently stumble upon it and found it really useful!Please don't quit posting your recaps and thoughts!

I second this IT7!

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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I would love to hear some thoughts from you guys about CL market. For short term trading. What are some things you've learned about it? Personality, pitfalls, technical features, patterns, trend/range axis, news to really watch out for, time of day stuff, day of week, etc) I'm probably going to be stepping into that market a good bit going forward.

Thanks as always for everyone's tremendous support, feedback, and input on things. Much love.

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 Traderwolf 
Raleigh,NC
 
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indextrader7 View Post
I would love to hear some thoughts from you guys about CL market. For short term trading. What are some things you've learned about it? Personality, pitfalls, technical features, patterns, trend/range axis, news to really watch out for, time of day stuff, day of week, etc) I'm probably going to be stepping into that market a good bit going forward.

Thanks as always for everyone's tremendous support, feedback, and input on things. Much love.

I have traded ES, TF, CL. I trade CL exclusively at present. CL trades more like TF than ES; more a trending instrument than a back and fill instrument(like ES). Therefore, some of your TF strategies might be applicable.

I do not know really your trading plan or how you trade except you seem to trade S/R levels; reversals at key S/R areas and pullbacks to S/R in a trend. You seem to trade very discretionary with this basic concept.

I have never seen a totally discretionary trader trade CL successfully at all. I call trading the low time frames or tick charts on CL "The Devil's Chocolate". It looks so easy to do after the day is done looking at the chart, yet it moves so fast during the day, you are tempted to take a bunch of trades. Its high volatility seems to bring out the worst in discretionary traders. This can lead to seeing patterns not yet developed fully by being anxious, revenge trading due to missing a trade or taking some quick losses, averaging down, cutting profits short, moving stops to BE too soon, or increasing trading size randomly. I am speaking from personal experience here unfortunately.

If you want to insure you keep your capital in tact, I strongly advise that you move closer to some back tested rules(can be based on price action) and trade those. If you do not have a back tested rule with an edge(or set of rules) , I would say the odds are stacked against you trading CL successfully my friend. That is my advice to you.

The speed at which CL moves can bring out some demons in you that you thought were dead, so be cautious my friend.

Shalom,

Wolf

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  #671 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

So far today, 14 trades. Only 3 winners yet I'm up 2R. (R being the typical amount being risked on a trade). Had a 8.5 R winner in there that made up for all the losses plus some.

Just keepin' those losers tiny!

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  #672 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Nothing impressive at all today, other than risk management.... but that's not sexy is it?

[Edit mistake ticks for the day]: 24 ticks on the day (average ticks per contract traded). I thought I made more honestly, but alllllll the many 5,7,8 tick losers I had today really added up.

16 trades taken. Only 4 winners of the bunch, BUT the avg loser was -5 ticks, and the average winner was +20 ticks.

Here's the trades: (yes some of those entries look downright stupid because they were scalp type entries on a lower timeframe)


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  #673 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Trading CL over the past few sessions has brought some changes to my trading performance

The higher volatility and larger tick swings have made my winners larger, but I've been able to keep my stops the same distance I've used on TF trades.

You can see the drift in my average win here:




Surprisingly, my win% has only slightly drifted lower, but I think I know I can improve it.


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  #674 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I got a PhD professor (economic forecasting/ stats guy) to go over some statistical analysis of my performance today. Remember how I was troubled about 2% weekly stops, and talking about stats like overall win%, win:loss, and how high my % of profitable days were?

Well, he ran a binomial distribution and other things I don't understand, and it shocked me. We also created a "game" based on my trading stats to see what the % of days profitable would come out to.

Flip a coin (50% odds like my win%), and if you win you get $1.60, and if you lose you lose -$1.00 (my win:loss ratio), and take 10 flips a day (avg trades per day), and do this over a hundred-something days...

The % of days profitable will statistically be 82.8%.... exactly what my results are! Woah...

This absolutely solidifies what trading is to me. It's a game (serious game), a numbers game. I practically flip a coin all day, and win a little more when I'm right then when I'm wrong. Sounds boring doesn't it.

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  #675 (permalink)
 mstier 
San Francisco
 
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Frankly dude, that's anything but boring :P

Good work sir.

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  #676 (permalink)
 cmmichaels 
London England
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Metatrader
Trading: Spot $
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Trading CL over the past few sessions has brought some changes to my trading performance


I think shorts are going to get squeezed here big time! I'm all in long on the break above the 40% level!

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  #677 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Tiny losing day for me today. Will post a recap when I get time. So busy these days... often times I trade until lunch, then have a several appointments the 2nd half of the day raising capital.

Very exciting news on our PRIMO office space. Signing the lease tomorrow. Corner office!!

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  #678 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


cmmichaels View Post
I think shorts are going to get squeezed here big time! I'm all in long on the break above the 40% level!

Literally lol'd to that one cmmichaels.

Unfortunately the squeeze wasn't on yet. A bit more supply to be worked out I suppose! ha

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  #679 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Targeting 834, but seeing a bit of support.... hanging in there.

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  #680 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Wedge just broke down (continuation pattern)



9:03 OUT. Took partial profits at previous swing low, and rest was scratched as buyers stepped in.

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  #681 (permalink)
 josh 
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
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I hope you get it -- this market clearly wants to be long though (at least so far ). Fed minutes today, has been building up all week. Market loves to shake out though, so maybe you can capitalize on it, best of luck here.

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  #682 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Probably a lot of trapped shorts here that weren't as flexible in their view. We'll capitalize on it.



9:07 T1 filled, aiming for T2 at the highs, and tightening stop along the way

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  #683 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

T2 filled, allowing a tiny runner's runner.


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  #684 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

It's a good time to be starting the fund. Just broke to new all time highs in my performance ratio after today's trading.


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  #685 (permalink)
eacherlunch
birmingham, al
 
 
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indextrader7 View Post
Very exciting news on our PRIMO office space. Signing the lease tomorrow. Corner office!!

Post some pics of the new office when you get set up!

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  #686 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


eacherlunch View Post
Post some pics of the new office when you get set up!


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  #687 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Three trades today. -7, +14, +5

Thought price was leveling off initially, but didn't work out. Shorts became the trendy (pun intended) trade after that. Two simple shorts on 1min price action and I was done for the day.


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  #688 (permalink)
eacherlunch
birmingham, al
 
 
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Nice! I recognize that building.

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  #689 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Here's the trades so far today. Currently still in 2nd half of this long trade looking to get to next resistance area. Recap later today.


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  #690 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Just closed out of part 2 for +15 ticks, due to a 12 minute stall. Will re enter if sets up.

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  #691 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Here's the trades with their ticks p/l (avg ticks per contract). And some analysis of entry rationale:

Happy with my performance today.
- All losers were kept inside 10 ticks.
- Had a good read on the market. My losing trades were due to being early to the party.
- Re-entered trade ideas with confidence.

1. Looked like we were falling back into the range after a failed push higher.
2. Simply re-entered the first trade idea based on now a double top formation.

3. Long based on the uptrend (deleted the trendline, but it connected the lows throughtout the session)
4. Re-entry

5. Price stalling/failing to break below the previous swing low.


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  #692 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

+20 ticks today. (Average ticks per contract traded)

Not real happy with the entry on the 2nd trade which lost 7 ticks. Nor am I happy with the entry on the 5th trade which cost me 8 ticks. Both of those trades were managed fine, but I was put in a bad position from the start due to those impatient entries. I'm hard on myself though... there's often a fine line between a really nice entry and a hindsight impatient one that didn't play out. Overall, I'm pleased. I like to give myself the freedom to take whatever trade I want to, as long as I manage risk accordingly. That's what counts.


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  #693 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Traded CL for the first part of the AM, until equities opened. Two scalps, bagged some ticks:


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  #694 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

One trade in TF shortly after the open. Took advantage of trapped longs looking for a breakout.




I'm off to a tee time with some more prospective clients. Fingers crossed.

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  #695 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I'm unbelievably blessed. I'm able to wake up in the morning and do something I truly love... something I would do whether I got paid or not... it's just a bonus that I get paid doing it.

I'm surrounded by people that love and support me. My parents, my sister, my girlfriend, several mentors at church, my business partner, my friends to name a few sources of solid love and support I have at the drop of a hat. I know they feel the same way about me too.

I've had difficult times in life and trading. I wouldn't change them, because it's been a greater hand at work shaping me into who I am today.

-Merritt

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  #696 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Pretty good trading today in the CL. Could have been better (maybe). I was on the wrong side of the flow at first because I was looking for a longer timeframe move. Sometimes it's a decision to make... whether to trust the current, short term flow, or the longer term trend. That's just trading. I did have a nice stop/reverse moment around 8:04 as I had a great read on just what was unfolding. Really the first moment of real clarity I had during the session up to that point.

It's a shame that I stopped trading at the last trade here. I would have destroyed the action that followed over the next 45 min's. Oh well. +13 ticks today. It is one thing I must admit. If I'm struggling with anything lately, it's the fear of giving back profits. That's a good thing to a certain extent, but it's negative in my case here. I get fear to pull the trigger when I get some profits for the day. I think this is from added pressure to perform as a CTA. It's something I must work though. I must keep sharpening my mental framework.

That's six sessions in a row banking at least 10 ticks. I've got to stay sharp, because this is just when I can get a little too carefree and make mistakes.

All losing trades were when I was chasing strength. All winning trades were when I faded weakness.


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  #697 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

A big breakthough today. I've had my eye on a prize for a while, and finally accomplished it today. Breaking 1 on my performance ratio. I knew it would come with my larger avgwin:avg loss ratio. All I had to do was bring my win% back up.

Cocktails are in order.


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  #698 (permalink)
 mstier 
San Francisco
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 21 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 55 given, 24 received

Congrats Merritt, it's great to see your continued success.

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  #699 (permalink)
 WarEagle 
Birmingham, AL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart
Broker: DDT/Rithmic
Trading: TF/ZN/CL
 
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indextrader7 View Post
I'm unbelievably blessed. I'm able to wake up in the morning and do something I truly love... something I would do whether I got paid or not... it's just a bonus that I get paid doing it.

I'm surrounded by people that love and support me. My parents, my sister, my girlfriend, several mentors at church, my business partner, my friends to name a few sources of solid love and support I have at the drop of a hat. I know they feel the same way about me too.

I've had difficult times in life and trading. I wouldn't change them, because it's been a greater hand at work shaping me into who I am today.

-Merritt

Nice Merritt, it reminds me of a chorus from "Rite of Spring" by one of my favorite bands, Angels and Airwaves. It's become sort of a motto for me:

If I had a chance for another try,
I wouldn't change a thing
It's made me all of who I am inside
And if I could thank God
That I am here, and that I am alive
And everyday I wake
I tell myself a little harmless lie
'The whole wide world is mine'


Congrats on living the dream!

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  #700 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Traded oil again today. I see no problems with discretionary trading CL.

Solid day. Banking ticks. Just flowing with the trend.


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