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Short term TF trading
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Short term TF trading

  #671 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
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Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received

So far today, 14 trades. Only 3 winners yet I'm up 2R. (R being the typical amount being risked on a trade). Had a 8.5 R winner in there that made up for all the losses plus some.

Just keepin' those losers tiny!

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  #672 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: several
Favorite Futures: several
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received

Oil trading today

Nothing impressive at all today, other than risk management.... but that's not sexy is it?

[Edit mistake ticks for the day]: 24 ticks on the day (average ticks per contract traded). I thought I made more honestly, but alllllll the many 5,7,8 tick losers I had today really added up.

16 trades taken. Only 4 winners of the bunch, BUT the avg loser was -5 ticks, and the average winner was +20 ticks.

Here's the trades: (yes some of those entries look downright stupid because they were scalp type entries on a lower timeframe)

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Last edited by indextrader7; October 1st, 2012 at 09:39 PM.
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  #673 (permalink)
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Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
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Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received

Noticing changes in performance stats


Trading CL over the past few sessions has brought some changes to my trading performance

The higher volatility and larger tick swings have made my winners larger, but I've been able to keep my stops the same distance I've used on TF trades.

You can see the drift in my average win here:

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Surprisingly, my win% has only slightly drifted lower, but I think I know I can improve it.

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  #674 (permalink)
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Birmingham, AL
 
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professor

I got a PhD professor (economic forecasting/ stats guy) to go over some statistical analysis of my performance today. Remember how I was troubled about 2% weekly stops, and talking about stats like overall win%, win:loss, and how high my % of profitable days were?

Well, he ran a binomial distribution and other things I don't understand, and it shocked me. We also created a "game" based on my trading stats to see what the % of days profitable would come out to.

Flip a coin (50% odds like my win%), and if you win you get $1.60, and if you lose you lose -$1.00 (my win:loss ratio), and take 10 flips a day (avg trades per day), and do this over a hundred-something days...

The % of days profitable will statistically be 82.8%.... exactly what my results are! Woah...

This absolutely solidifies what trading is to me. It's a game (serious game), a numbers game. I practically flip a coin all day, and win a little more when I'm right then when I'm wrong. Sounds boring doesn't it.

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  #675 (permalink)
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Frankly dude, that's anything but boring :P

Good work sir.

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  #676 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post
Trading CL over the past few sessions has brought some changes to my trading performance

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I think shorts are going to get squeezed here big time! I'm all in long on the break above the 40% level!

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  #677 (permalink)
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Tiny losing day for me today. Will post a recap when I get time. So busy these days... often times I trade until lunch, then have a several appointments the 2nd half of the day raising capital.

Very exciting news on our PRIMO office space. Signing the lease tomorrow. Corner office!!

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  #678 (permalink)
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cmmichaels View Post
I think shorts are going to get squeezed here big time! I'm all in long on the break above the 40% level!

Literally lol'd to that one cmmichaels.

Unfortunately the squeeze wasn't on yet. A bit more supply to be worked out I suppose! ha

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  #679 (permalink)
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Targeting 834, but seeing a bit of support.... hanging in there.

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  #680 (permalink)
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Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received


Wedge just broke down (continuation pattern)

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9:03 OUT. Took partial profits at previous swing low, and rest was scratched as buyers stepped in.

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