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Short term TF trading
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Short term TF trading

  #651 (permalink)
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GETTING BETTER

Here's a hindsight review of how I should have been seeing things during my crappy session this morning:

We're headed up, uptrend, bias is up, into the market open.

Market opens at 8:30, small swing up to A, and then retrace and push up again to the same level at B. Here there is a strong bear candle that pushes us to new lows.

Then we get a pullback to the breakdown level at C. Then a second failed attempt higher at the same level at D.

E provides a pullback to the previous swing low.

Bottom line, after the double top at A and B, a breakdown of those lows, and especially after the retest at C... short was the only thing I should have been looking for, but I was mostly trying long entries.

Bias is everything.

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  #652 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra
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Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 713 given, 2,758 received

Exciting news!

I have launched a CTA called TETRAD Asset Management.

Iíve debated whether to remain anonymous, and simply continue the journal withholding that information, but the pros outweigh the cons. Given the spirit of sharing at futures.io (formerly BMT), and in my continuing that spirit here on this journal, I know without a doubt that including things about starting a CTA and the ups and downs that go with it could provide valuable experience to others. Also a potential benefit is that you never know what attention could be brought to the firm through exposure here. Starting a small firm is very tough, and any exposure is a good thing at this point.

Not much will change with this journal. Iím not trying to sell anyone on the CTA here. This journal is for continual improvement of my trading through the process of consistent trade review and critique. This journal is about my trading journey, and launching this is a big part of that journey.


With love,

Merritt

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  #653 (permalink)
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Congrats!

I'm excited that you're taking this next step. I hope your confidence continues to grow.

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  #654 (permalink)
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Excellent day today as far as returns go. I am frustrated that, again, I was fighting the bias for a while, which eats into P/L. Review to come later, I'm still watching for trades at the moment.

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  #655 (permalink)
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recap

Trade 1. I thought we would get a push back up to the overnight highs, a breakout play at the open. It didn't look right so I got out at BE.

Trade 2. Recognizing that the breakout failed, I simply reversed to short to take advantage of the other traders on the wrong side of that move.

Trade 3. Small counter-trend entry scalp.

Trade 4. I waited for the 9am news to come out, and often times you get a false breakout as the news is announced. Sure enough we got a break lower that quickly failed so I hopped on board long. Had 10 ticks in the bag, but I was looking for a massive move, ended up losing a tick or two on the trade as it reversed. Should have taken partial profits at the previous swing high. Other than that, I'm ok with the trade.

Trades 5, 6, 7, and 8 I'm not happy with these. I had a view of what I thought was going to happen, and I was continually trying to impose that view on the market instead of being open to what was actually happening. Trade 7 is especially maddening as I allowed it to go way too far and was in a state of "hope".

Trade 9a/b was very solid. Realized my bias error in 5-8, got on the right side and added to the position on a pullback.

Trade 10 was just ok, ended up with a MAE roughly the size of the profit target, which isn't optimal.

Trade 11a/b Good job recognizing the shift in sentiment, and scaling into a nice flowing pullback.

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  #656 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post
Trade 1. I thought we would get a push back up to the overnight highs, a breakout play at the open. It didn't look right so I got out at BE.

Trade 2. Recognizing that the breakout failed, I simply reversed to short to take advantage of the other traders on the wrong side of that move.

Trade 3. Small counter-trend entry scalp.

Trade 4. I waited for the 9am news to come out, and often times you get a false breakout as the news is announced. Sure enough we got a break lower that quickly failed so I hopped on board long. Had 10 ticks in the bag, but I was looking for a massive move, ended up losing a tick or two on the trade as it reversed. Should have taken partial profits at the previous swing high. Other than that, I'm ok with the trade.

Trades 5, 6, 7, and 8 I'm not happy with these. I had a view of what I thought was going to happen, and I was continually trying to impose that view on the market instead of being open to what was actually happening. Trade 7 is especially maddening as I allowed it to go way too far and was in a state of "hope".

Trade 9a/b was very solid. Realized my bias error in 5-8, got on the right side and added to the position on a pullback.

Trade 10 was just ok, ended up with a MAE roughly the size of the profit target, which isn't optimal.

Trade 11a/b Good job recognizing the shift in sentiment, and scaling into a nice flowing pullback.

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Could you elaborate on #10 please? Where did you have your stop and how come you didn't get out earlier? Was it a well-managed trade or do you think you got lucky?

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  #657 (permalink)
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imPairsonator View Post
Could you elaborate on #10 please? Where did you have your stop and how come you didn't get out earlier? Was it a well-managed trade or do you think you got lucky?

Now that you mention it... That trade should have been scratched after the big bull candle.

The thinking was that we had been on a 75 tick run with very tiny retracements along the way. Given that we had yet to see a decent sized pullback, I halfway expected the complex pullback (two legged pullback) which did end up forming on this trade, but I did not want to miss out on a continuation of a fast move as I expected the down move to continue to the 823 level before seeing real support.

In short, I kinda expected (or feared rather) that I would have to suck up a fairly large MAE on the trade, but didn't want to miss a normal pullback opportunity. Given the over extension of the down move, I still remained confident of the trade despite larger pullback.

Take a look at the PA on the 3min chart. This size pullback seems to just make sense to me. Prints some tails as it retraces back up to the last area of noticeable consolidation for the day.

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My confidence tends to increase the more market motion looks trendy. I just downright perform better in those environments. Probably because back when I used to trade currencies, my entire method was based on pullbacks in trending markets back to different moving averages and a MACD signal to pull the trigger.

I ended up rambling a bit, but talking about this trade makes me realize how much of trading is subconscious stuff that's just been ingrained into me through years of screen time. There are just so many things going on, it's impossible to journal it all.

I'm glad you asked the question.

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  #658 (permalink)
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Performance Ratio

August -> yesterday

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  #659 (permalink)
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Stats that make up the performance ratio:

Also from august to present

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  #660 (permalink)
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Trading some ES


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