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Short term TF trading


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Short term TF trading

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  #601 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

This first trade was counter-trend I know, but I saw it as a nice break out failure trade. Price broke below a support level, and also to another support level, then quickly rejected the breakout. Turns out this was a perfect time for a counter trend trade as the low of the day had been printed. I exited half the position as price broke below the previous swing low on the lower 20 tick timeframe by a tick or two. Probably needed a little more breathing room. Exited 2nd half at breakeven due to being afraid the trade wouldn't work out.


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  #602 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

The 2nd trade I suppose was taken because I didn't money on the first, as well as the fact that up until I entered the short, price had only slowly worked higher (which looks more like a pullback to me for the downtrend to continue). Pulled back to the previous swing lows and showed some strength to the downside so I hopped in. I'm sure there's something I'm missing here, but I can't see what's really wrong with it. Look forward to input.


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  #603 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


After that last strong push upward that stopped me out of trade 2, I'm bullish now. I get a pullback to the same level I went short off of, and fade it. Profits taken nicely at resistance.


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  #604 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

At the entry on trade 4, I'm seeing that yes we've had some strength to the upside, but then we had a strong push down after forming a double top at resistance. I fade the pullback up looking for the downtrend (which still is in tact according to my analysis) to continue.

I was wrong and this was just a complex pullback to form two right side shoulders on an inverse h&s pattern here at support.

In hindsight the trade could have been avoided. My pattern based entry on the lower timeframe was not valid. I thought it formed a lower high, but it didn't give enough confirmation of forming that 2nd swing high and simply continued against me.


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  #605 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I don't get in for the whole giant upswing due to no real pullbacks, only a couple tiny blips on the way up. Then I get what looks to be a double bottom pullback, and enter. (triple bottom on the lower timeframe actually.) Doesnt' work out.

I suppose a thing to note is the bearish engulfing on both attempts to push higher. More of a double top than a double bottom on this timeframe at least.


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  #606 (permalink)
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IT7, I know you like to trade early in the day, but your first hour or two of trading is often when the market is gearing up for the US open, which means doing lots of "weeble wobble" (if that's clear). Sometimes the market will establish direction before the cash open, but very often it does not and the pre-open moves are tests of local extremes. I know some people who take trades pre-open to establish a position prior to news, or for some other reason, but the bulk of your trading seems to be at a time of day when the market is most uncertain. Not that I won't take a trade before 9:30ET, but the market is notorious for faking left, right, left, .... and then only by 10am or so (give or take) does it really show its hand. By the way, I know your previous examples do not fit this category, this is just a general thought/question.

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  #607 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Here's a problem with the way I analyze trend. On days like this, with large direct swings, the level at which I will declare a trend change is VERY far away, so I'm still in an "uptrend" as price is (in hindsight) in a clear downtrend. maybe this is something I will just accept, because I still have an edge that is profitable despite being wrong in this type of market environment. Maybe I will get better at recognizing these days and switch to more of a scalping style, or more of a position trader for large swings. I don't know at this point.

Trades are another attempt to get long as price shows it's rounding. Then a too quick entry short on a tiny move up, then a pretty good entry short, but price acted pretty weird and I didn't protect profits well enough.


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  #608 (permalink)
London England
 
Experience: Beginner
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indextrader7 View Post
Here's a problem with the way I analyze trend. On days like this, with large direct swings, the level at which I will declare a trend change is VERY far away, so I'm still in an "uptrend" as price is (in hindsight) in a clear downtrend. maybe this is something I will just accept, because I still have an edge that is profitable despite being wrong in this type of market environment. Maybe I will get better at recognizing these days and switch to more of a scalping style, or more of a position trader for large swings. I don't know at this point.

Trades are another attempt to get long as price shows it's rounding. Then a too quick entry short on a tiny move up, then a pretty good entry short, but price acted pretty weird and I didn't protect profits well enough.

Are you using the Lance Beggs definition of a trend change IT7?

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  #609 (permalink)
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You were looking for some input on your rough patch lately and since your posts are my favorite of all on the forum here and have helped me to be a better trader I just wanted to give you my insights on what may help some.

I trade the 4 range chart on the tf on my main screen then watch for high prababilty price action entries, I like to see some confirmation on my 2nd screen with a $tick chart using my TOS platform from TD Ameritrade and on my third screen I have a basic 1 minute candlestick chart with updown volume bars and stochastics. Nothing fancy in any of these but I find quite often I can get a better read on where price may go if I combine the information I see on all 3 screens vs just the 4 range screen.
You Usually do a very good job at managing your trades once in them so I dont think you need any outside advice on that.
Thanks Quantismo

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  #610 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


What a week this is. I went 7/7 winners today, and made nearly double what I lost yesterday. I guess it all averages out to my usual average stats. Just goes to show not to get too excited about any single session... given that you are following your rules and such.

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