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Short term TF trading


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Short term TF trading

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  #461 (permalink)
New York
 
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josh View Post
Way to get back on the train. One lesson I suppose is, don't listen to the opinions of others I never put any weight on what anyone else says about a trade idea, whether it's agreeing or disagreeing with my own. I was very wrong about a long being too late here, but I certainly didn't short it there, thus my being wrong didn't cost me a dime; I was a bit surprised when you shorted. At least I expected a bit of rotation and chop, but it just kept going. The important thing is that you don't try to fight it, and got out of your short. Reversing to long was a nice bonus.

By the way IT, I wanted to thank you for inspiring me with your nice spreadsheet stats to create my own robust sheet. Since I started tracking things this way in late June I have had very good results, and I attribute much of that to your insistence that I create my own spreadsheet, which I did and have learned so much in the process. True what you say about being right -- as these stats show, I am only 40% right, but have a 17% return with a -6.8% drawdown since late June. Knowing objectively how I'm doing, with a focus on risk, has been a huge part of keeping me focused on not just the raw P/L, which is really only a small part of how we are actually doing.

I strongly recommend anyone who's struggling to create your own spreadsheet to monitor your risk-adjusted performance!!! IT7 motivated me to do this, and I hope you take his lead and do it as I have done.


Hey Josh,

Do you have a spreadsheet that you created that you wouldn't mind sharing?

Ryan

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  #462 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
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Rad4633 View Post
Josh, I know what you mean but what do you look at to buy at the bottom. Exhaustion, confluence,prior res, retest strength????Curious how another trader sees it bc I just guess for it sorta

Well, we are all guessing every time we take a trade. We cannot manage where the market will go next, but with a good entry location we can minimize our initial risk, and then manage it more effectively. All we can really have a say-so about is when we get in, and when we exit.

I will show you my chart with entries from this morning, but it won't be very helpful because it's what's on your screen too. By the way, I trade ES so that's what you're seeing. I do not know the Russell and would not dare trade it without observing it for several months first.




And this last sentence is really the key for me. I have improved steadily, though I've had my moments where I felt utterly clueless, largely because I am simply more familiar with my market. I know what it likes to do. I have learned by watching my charts, the DOM, and the tape, when she's ready to do her thing. I am often a little wrong, as you can see from the first trade here. But when I'm wrong, I'm usually wrong small. I had 1320 to 1322 marked as an area I may want to buy, through simple analysis, though my preference at the close yesterday was to be short today; unfortunately the market did it without me overnight so I could only trade what was there today.

But a good location is only half the story. As you can see, I tried to buy 22 but was early. So it made a 2 tick new low to 20, then tried again, only 1 tick lower. Watching the tape and DOM I saw the bids holding, the volume present to support the market, and thus the market had shown me enough to take the small risk to find out if I was right or not. Enough volume at the new lows to indicate trapped shorts, yet not enough vertical movement to justify it. What I did not do was attempt to identify a "setup," quantify the trade with an indicator oversold or other plug-in-a-number method. This works for some people apparently, but it does not for me. I do not like to try to bottom-pick, but if you pull up a 15 minute chart of the opening this morning, you will see overlapping bars moving down. For about an hour the market was essentially auctioning for buyers. This was not vertical development, it was down-sloping horizontal. Good short opportunities early, but the mood of the market was a methodical searching for buyers, not a true selloff of the kind we want to be in on.

I'm a little embarrassed that this is the only long I took. I missed the bulk of the opportunity. Yet, I took 2 ticks of heat, had a 4 tick stop, and made 14. It's a good trade-off, but I can do much better. I did short near the end of the day, but again, risk was quantified and very small, and I tried 3 times, losing only 6 ticks total, before a decent winner on the 4th try. I could have been totally wrong, but even if I had been, the loss would have been very manageable.

In short, know your market (the Russell I presume). Anything else is, for me, fluff and excess to satisfy the ego.

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  #463 (permalink)
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itrade2win View Post
Do you have a spreadsheet that you created that you wouldn't mind sharing?

Ryan, I asked IT7 this same question in late May via PM. He told me that he would help me in any way he could, but that he highly recommended building my own. I thanked him, and while I did not want to start from scratch, I took his advice.

His advice was full of wisdom, because being forced to create my own caused me to think of the purpose of what I actually need to see on a spreadsheet. I actually wrote down with pen and paper, "What do I need to know?" This included things such as "Am I risking more than I need to in achieving my returns?"

Had IT7 simply given me his spreadsheet, I would never have really benefited from the purpose of it, which is to be aware of the purpose of keeping the records in the first place. So, I will give you the same advice and answer that he gave me: I will be happy to help you in any way I can, but you will actually benefit if you create your own. Then you own it; then you can make changes to it, you can add what you want, and remove what you want. You will come up with good ideas that I have not had, and you will be able to implement it. None of that is possible if I share mine. But anything you need, just send me a PM and I'll be happy to help you with it.

So, I thank IT7 for "teaching a man how to fish" instead of simply feeding me what I wanted, and I guarantee you will feel the same way. For the record, I was not an excel guru, but I have become very capable in the last month at it. All you need to be found is on google, and this is a web site I found where I based most of my stuff on. You can download his sample and use the ideas. It seems like a lot at first, but give it a couple of weeks of steady work and it will be very nice:

Excel Dynamic Named Ranges = Never Manually Updating Your Charts | Gilligan on Data by Tim Wilson

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  #464 (permalink)
New York
 
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josh View Post
Ryan, I asked IT7 this same question in late May via PM. He told me that he would help me in any way he could, but that he highly recommended building my own. I thanked him, and while I did not want to start from scratch, I took his advice.

His advice was full of wisdom, because being forced to create my own caused me to think of the purpose of what I actually need to see on a spreadsheet. I actually wrote down with pen and paper, "What do I need to know?" This included things such as "Am I risking more than I need to in achieving my returns?"

Had IT7 simply given me his spreadsheet, I would never have really benefited from the purpose of it, which is to be aware of the purpose of keeping the records in the first place. So, I will give you the same advice and answer that he gave me: I will be happy to help you in any way I can, but you will actually benefit if you create your own. Then you own it; then you can make changes to it, you can add what you want, and remove what you want. You will come up with good ideas that I have not had, and you will be able to implement it. None of that is possible if I share mine. But anything you need, just send me a PM and I'll be happy to help you with it.

So, I thank IT7 for "teaching a man how to fish" instead of simply feeding me what I wanted, and I guarantee you will feel the same way. For the record, I was not an excel guru, but I have become very capable in the last month at it. All you need to be found is on google, and this is a web site I found where I based most of my stuff on. You can download his sample and use the ideas. It seems like a lot at first, but give it a couple of weeks of steady work and it will be very nice:

Excel Dynamic Named Ranges = Never Manually Updating Your Charts | Gilligan on Data by Tim Wilson

.

Hey Josh,

Very cool, thank you !

Ryan

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  #465 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Pardon my english ignorance but what does having a cow mean? At first, i thought a cow had eaten your internet cable but i am sure it means something else

It means freaking out, or going crazy about something.

Mike

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  #466 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


josh View Post
Way to get back on the train. One lesson I suppose is, don't listen to the opinions of others I never put any weight on what anyone else says about a trade idea, whether it's agreeing or disagreeing with my own. I was very wrong about a long being too late here, but I certainly didn't short it there, thus my being wrong didn't cost me a dime; I was a bit surprised when you shorted. At least I expected a bit of rotation and chop, but it just kept going. The important thing is that you don't try to fight it, and got out of your short. Reversing to long was a nice bonus.

By the way IT, I wanted to thank you for inspiring me with your nice spreadsheet stats to create my own robust sheet. Since I started tracking things this way in late June I have had very good results, and I attribute much of that to your insistence that I create my own spreadsheet, which I did and have learned so much in the process. True what you say about being right -- as these stats show, I am only 40% right, but have a 17% return with a -6.8% drawdown since late June. Knowing objectively how I'm doing, with a focus on risk, has been a huge part of keeping me focused on not just the raw P/L, which is really only a small part of how we are actually doing.

I strongly recommend anyone who's struggling to create your own spreadsheet to monitor your risk-adjusted performance!!! IT7 motivated me to do this, and I hope you take his lead and do it as I have done.


Excellent work my man! It shows a lot about you that you had the dedication and took the time to put it together, and it's paying off for you. This really makes me happy to hear.

Good looking spreadsheet. Looks like you've really tightened up your losses as of late, well done.

Keep up the great work.

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  #467 (permalink)
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@josh, nice looking charts, and thanks for that Excel link.

Do you guys have anything set up for analyzing scales? NT unfortunately doesn't export that data directly.

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  #468 (permalink)
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futuretrader View Post
Do you guys have anything set up for analyzing scales? NT unfortunately doesn't export that data directly.

This is something I have considered adding to my stats but have just not done it yet. I do not do an NT export, as I typically have fewer than 5 or 6 trades on average per day, and I only care about the risk, drawdown, profit, time in the trade, max size during the trade, and time of day the trade is taken (and not even using those last two data points at this moment). NT sometimes does not calculate some of this the way I would like it to so it's easier for me to take the 1 minute per trade to enter it, and then I can have an intraday up-to-date picture instead of having to do an export.

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  #469 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


futuretrader View Post

Do you guys have anything set up for analyzing scales? NT unfortunately doesn't export that data directly.

Analyzing scales? Could you be more specific with what you're trying to accomplish?

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  #470 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


First entry today was on the first pullback after the breakout. Got a bit lucky on the great timing, as I went in "blind" (without much confirmation of a continuation starting).


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June 9, 2013


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