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Short term TF trading


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Short term TF trading

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  #271 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

I've actually been keeping up with my R-Multiple since Feb, but stopped on 5-8-12.

428 trades. Average R-Multiple is 0.22




To me this ends up being pretty worthless though honestly... To know an expectancy, which isn't actually meaningful for any individual trade that you're in is no bueno for me. I know I have an edge, I have other metrics to tell me that. Am I missing something?

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  #272 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
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indextrader7 View Post
I've actually been keeping up with my R-Multiple since Feb, but stopped on 5-8-12.

428 trades. Average R-Multiple is 0.22

To me this ends up being pretty worthless though honestly... To know an expectancy, which isn't actually meaningful for any individual trade that you're in is no bueno for me. I know I have an edge, I have other metrics to tell me that. Am I missing something?

It's nice that you only have a couple of cases where it's < -1R.

All statistical distributions are meaningless, if you try to make the current individual trade you're in, which is a random event, a "known" which must conform to the mean of the distribution.

Stats are only good for looking at where you've been, and none of these stats will matter if you disregard risk on any given trade; for example, if you were to set a stop value at $5000, "expecting" that you will make $1000 because your expectancy is 0.2R. This is obviously not the intent of a stat, to know what "will" happen on any given trade.

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  #273 (permalink)
near Paris, France
 
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indextrader7 View Post
428 trades. Average R-Multiple is 0.22

If I may ask, from a methodological standpoint:
Have you calculated the R-multiple of each trade, and then made an average?
If yes, how have you calculated the R-multiple of an isolated trade? Is it "gain-or-loss divided by hard-stop-loss"?

Thanks!

Nicolas

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  #274 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


Nicolas11 View Post
If I may ask, from a methodological standpoint:
Have you calculated the R-multiple of each trade, and then made an average?
If yes, how have you calculated the R-multiple of an isolated trade? Is it "gain-or-loss divided by hard-stop-loss"?

Thanks!

Nicolas

Yeah.

($ P/L) / absolute value(stop loss $ risk)

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  #275 (permalink)
Mountain View, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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indextrader7 View Post
Who would like to take a shot at the reasoning behind that short entry?

Previous level of strong support becomes resistance after it was breached and should now be a significant resistance line.

Thanks for your great journal of your trading!

Randy

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  #276 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


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  #277 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


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  #278 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


rmcbeath View Post
Previous level of strong support becomes resistance after it was breached and should now be a significant resistance line.

Thanks for your great journal of your trading!

Randy

Exactly. Good analysis.

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  #279 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


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  #280 (permalink)
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


Glad to get an hour of trading in today, was swamped with other things to do this AM.

Went 4/4, so that'll be it for today. Maybe I can go the whole month of June without a losing trade. (big joke)

Absolutely beautiful market action today, wish I would have been able to trade it. Hope you guys did well.

Trade ticks today: +10, +5, +8.5, +4.5

Video to come, although I think all the trades are pretty self explanatory from the previous posts today. Shorted at the top of a range, price broke down below the range, I shorted the initial quick retest of the previous range support, then shorted two more pullbacks in the downtrend.

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