Welcome to my trading journal where I'm going to detail my daily struggles with Mr Market and my own trading demons.
I'm a discretionary trader relying on price action. Most days I'll come into the day with a bias to be long or short depending on how I see the bigger picture. I will then look for set-ups in the direction of my bias.
Given the current volatility (typical day range of 12 pts) my approximate stops will be 2-4 points. At the moment I will have a hard stop at 3 points but I'll manually exit most trades before my stop is hit if I think its not working or is taking too long.
- identify 0-5 trades / day (and take some of them!)
- be profittable 60% of days
- make 20 ES points / week
- have a hard stop at 3 pts
- max position size of 5 contracts
- enter with trend on first pull back after a breakout or thrust
- enter on breakouts of ranges (I actually have not done much of this)
- buy support / sell resistance using NYSE Tick and price action as a guide
- fade 3rd push or higher / wedge type patterns
Now the first two are with the immediate trend but the second two are against the immediate trend.
One day I'll get round to writing a proper trading plan ...
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So I'm going to try and post my analysis each morning and then post my actually trading which often is something completely different.
Longer term - unless you've been living in a cave ES has been in a 3.5 month, 30% rally. However it is now at 1400 a price it first hit 16 days ago and the daily volatility has picked up both signs that the low volatility rally is over and it is probably forming a range with 1420 as resistance. I don't expect a big pull back but with the Fed money printing off the table its hard to see a catalyst for higher unless AAPL can get to $700.
If I was writing this yesterday I would have said that I expect 1400 to break, but that has happened in the European session. So now my idea is to see if I can get a short on any retest of 1400 (prior support becomes resistance). I'll maintain a short bias unless ES gets over 1402. To the downside 1380/2 has been strong support.
- areas to watch proved spot on
- held final long from 89.50 to 95.00 unfortunately only got 1 ct on as other order at 88.50 not filled
- never traded my bias as was waiting for a short entry over 99 which never reached
- once under opening range at 95 should have been short
- churned a lot of contracts on first leg down to eventual low at 89, should have been more patient
First Thursday update net -3.75 ES pts. Short bias but initial move was up off open. Only traded to lunch as ES returned to opening price and with Europe closing and Friday holiday thought afternoon would be a choppy mess.
Mon - obviously big gap down following NFP ES 1370 looked like a strong level and in fact never tested below 73 in rth. Had bullish bias provided globex lows held. Looking for shorts over 80.
Decent day, Market traded above rth open most of day but fell in last hour to close slightly down from open -0.75. Still managed to make 25 pts mostly from long side. Only looked at shorts once over 81 but closed too soon.
ohlc 75.25 82.75 73.25 74.50 -.75 rng 9.50
25 cts max 6,+25 ES pts for $1150
- After potential HL at 74 should have been adding climb but was more hesitant since already up $700 by then
- Only put 1 ct on for first pb to EMA @ 78 and scalped out
- Too early on shorts and therefore bailed on most as moved back to b/e and only held 1 ct for a scalp
Despite ES having biggest decline this year (48 pts), NQ still holding support so can't rule out another leg up.
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Narrow range day 8pts. RTH traded down from open after a strong globex session. Traded cautiously but day went
pretty much as per prior levels, with 69/71 being res. Choose the align with globex trend and traded from long side taking profits into 69/71. Could also have traded short off those levels as rth was a rotational.
3 trades, 8 cts Net 10.25 from longs only despite Open-Close being down -4.
For Thursday globex tested up to 72 now trading down a bit in middle of range 66 ish. Poss bear flag on hourly but could just keep consolidating. No edge off open just need to watch reaction at boundaries.