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ES day trading Journal


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ES day trading Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Welcome to my trading journal where I'm going to detail my daily struggles with Mr Market and my own trading demons.

I'm a discretionary trader relying on price action. Most days I'll come into the day with a bias to be long or short depending on how I see the bigger picture. I will then look for set-ups in the direction of my bias.

Given the current volatility (typical day range of 12 pts) my approximate stops will be 2-4 points. At the moment I will have a hard stop at 3 points but I'll manually exit most trades before my stop is hit if I think its not working or is taking too long.

My goals
- identify 0-5 trades / day (and take some of them!)
- be profittable 60% of days
- make 20 ES points / week

Limits
- have a hard stop at 3 pts
- max position size of 5 contracts

Tactics
- enter with trend on first pull back after a breakout or thrust
- enter on breakouts of ranges (I actually have not done much of this)
- buy support / sell resistance using NYSE Tick and price action as a guide
- fade 3rd push or higher / wedge type patterns

Now the first two are with the immediate trend but the second two are against the immediate trend.

One day I'll get round to writing a proper trading plan ...

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  #3 (permalink)
jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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So I'm going to try and post my analysis each morning and then post my actually trading which often is something completely different.

Longer term - unless you've been living in a cave ES has been in a 3.5 month, 30% rally. However it is now at 1400 a price it first hit 16 days ago and the daily volatility has picked up both signs that the low volatility rally is over and it is probably forming a range with 1420 as resistance. I don't expect a big pull back but with the Fed money printing off the table its hard to see a catalyst for higher unless AAPL can get to $700.

If I was writing this yesterday I would have said that I expect 1400 to break, but that has happened in the European session. So now my idea is to see if I can get a short on any retest of 1400 (prior support becomes resistance). I'll maintain a short bias unless ES gets over 1402. To the downside 1380/2 has been strong support.

Areas I'm watching today
1398/1402
1395/6
1388/90

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  #4 (permalink)
 drw112 
Chicago IL
 
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Might help you when you go back and look at your journal if you use pictures for your analysis so you can see what you were thinking.

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  #5 (permalink)
jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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drw112 View Post
Might help you when you go back and look at your journal if you use pictures for your analysis so you can see what you were thinking.

Yes it would, I did prepare one but then it said I couldn't attach it until I had at least 5 posts (this makes 3 now).

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  #6 (permalink)
jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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net ES points +12.75

ohlc 97.00 88.50, 98.50, 93.00 chg -4 rng 10 pts

Positives
- areas to watch proved spot on
- held final long from 89.50 to 95.00 unfortunately only got 1 ct on as other order at 88.50 not filled

Negatives
- never traded my bias as was waiting for a short entry over 99 which never reached
- once under opening range at 95 should have been short
- churned a lot of contracts on first leg down to eventual low at 89, should have been more patient

Overall - poor execution of a good plan

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  #7 (permalink)
jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Regained 9500 in globex but weak European session broke below YL 8850
as low as 8425.

Bias short

First trade idea - short a push up into 88/90 area but currently already trading at 88
so we'll have to see where RTH open is.

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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First Thursday update net -3.75 ES pts. Short bias but initial move was up off open. Only traded to lunch as ES returned to opening price and with Europe closing and Friday holiday thought afternoon would be a choppy mess.

Mon - obviously big gap down following NFP ES 1370 looked like a strong level and in fact never tested below 73 in rth. Had bullish bias provided globex lows held. Looking for shorts over 80.

Decent day, Market traded above rth open most of day but fell in last hour to close slightly down from open -0.75. Still managed to make 25 pts mostly from long side. Only looked at shorts once over 81 but closed too soon.

ohlc 75.25 82.75 73.25 74.50 -.75 rng 9.50
25 cts max 6,+25 ES pts for $1150

Mistakes
- After potential HL at 74 should have been adding climb but was more hesitant since already up $700 by then
- Only put 1 ct on for first pb to EMA @ 78 and scalped out
- Too early on shorts and therefore bailed on most as moved back to b/e and only held 1 ct for a scalp

Despite ES having biggest decline this year (48 pts), NQ still holding support so can't rule out another leg up.

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Broke prior lows in 71/3 area and continued to trend 20 pts lower. A catalog of mistakes on my part resulting in a net -16 pts loss.

Lessons
- must have levels beyond which I don't look for counter trend trades e.g no longs under 70.

Right now S&P oversold on daily basis.

on ES
73 last swing high before decline
69/71 resistance (been tested in globex)
60/1 support
52.50 L

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Narrow range day 8pts. RTH traded down from open after a strong globex session. Traded cautiously but day went
pretty much as per prior levels, with 69/71 being res. Choose the align with globex trend and traded from long side taking profits into 69/71. Could also have traded short off those levels as rth was a rotational.

3 trades, 8 cts Net 10.25 from longs only despite Open-Close being down -4.

For Thursday globex tested up to 72 now trading down a bit in middle of range 66 ish. Poss bear flag on hourly but could just keep consolidating. No edge off open just need to watch reaction at boundaries.

No bias - waiting for more information.

72/4 res <- bears in danger of getting run over above here as probably trade back into 80's
62/3 supp
59/60 supp
5250 low

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Trend day - opened at a neutral price but straight up into resistance at 73. Formed a small range then broke higher and closed on the highs.

Profitable day for me but should have been a home run. I already knew that 73 would be key and bears were likely to be roadkill above it. After the strong first 15 mins, it I had a feeling that it could be a trend day and I should have traded much more aggressively. Basically buying in the consolidation, adding on the climb and any pullback and holding at least a partial position into the close. Since trend days frequently close at the extreme.

So despite knowing how I should trade it, I wasn't really aggressive and scaled out on the climb. At least I knew better than to look for shorts.

I think part of the problem was because it opened at a neutral price I was in a watching/passive mindset and I didn't switch quickly enough to a trading mindset. So when I did start trading I was cautious and on trend days once the train leaves the station all you can do it wave it goodbye.

Friday - market proved quite weak dropping back under the 74 break-out level. This has probably surprised the bulls especially as we got over 86 in globex. Euro seems weak today as well.

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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After Thursdays trend day up, Friday was a trend day down closing pretty much on its lows and reversing all of Thursdays gains. Thursdays opening RTH print turned out to be the high of the day and the first two 5min bars of the day were trend bars down that certainly suggested selling pressure. The simplest trade was the short @ retest of 76. I was still reading this as a p/b so I was buying around 70 exitting into the bounce to 74. I didn't trade the afternoon although the 4+ hour 3 point range did suggest that a breakout might happen. I was thinking a long b/o but instead the opposite happened.

Fridays weak close would suggest further downside on Monday but that looks like it has already played out in globex. Looks like we will opening 72-4 so probably just under resistance. Potentially we have put in a HL @ 60. No bias at open but bullish if we can get over 77 and hold 74 on any p/b. Holding over 70 is bullish bigger picture and a move back to 94-6 seems possible to me.

94/6
86
74/5
63
60
52.50

I'm going to switch the a 24H chart for a bit because I feel that I'm missing out by ignoring what is happening in globex some days. I know that others like Al Brooks seems to stick to RTH charts but to me it seems like the activity in globex is relevant. I will monitor how this goes.

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  #13 (permalink)
jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Market respected levels with rth high at 75.25 and low 60.75. Opened under resistance and after a quick test traded straight down. I always find it difficult to trade trends off the open and just sat this one out until market approached 63 where I started buying exitting on bounce into 66. Nearer midday got long again as market consolidated under 66 and caught the move up to 72.

Traded much heavier 81 cts for a net 41 points.

Levels (no change from yesterday)
94/6
86
74/5
66/7
60/3 <- major support zone now
52.50

Sometimes trading can be simple. Traded European open which offered a ridiculously simple pullback trade after the strong trend up off the open. Nice thing was I only took 1 tick heat and once it moved in my direction went straight to my target without a p/b. I should really have had more size on.

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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7 trades 34 contracts Net 64.75 points - my best day since October

Tues was a trend day in fact there was a trend from the open in Europe and then US session needed a little push down before buyers came in and the trend continued. For once, I actually made money on a trend day and did not fight it.

Made one trade in globex shown on previous post. Again the trend from the open left without me one it although I did at least consider getting long at 60. In US session basically always looking for reasons to buy

Things did well
  • recognised it as a trend day and ,traded with aggressive long bias
  • Bailed from first long trade @75 after minor LH and got concerned that market might need to p/b
  • Got long in 75's after poke under 74 reversed. Bit slow in getting long but was well positioned for breakout.

Things did badly
  • Big problem was should have seen that the first consolidation 78/79 was tight and did not retest the b/o level this is an obvious sign of strength and coupled with a strong trend meant I should have been adding to my trade.

Plan Weds
Tues weak close meant it was not a true trend day. Also bears held prior globex highs at 89. However these are minor points and bulls have advantage as long as market holds above 75. Weak European globex session.

Bias - cautiously long (since Europe has been weak and we've lost 82)

89 res
86/87 hvn
82/83
78/79 supp
7650 b/o level
75/76
7175 rth low
60/63 <- HL on 60min chart major support
5250 low

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Weds results 8 trades 41 cts net -2.25

Inside day, narrow range (7.75) holding 78/9 as support and 85/6 as res. weak close.

Good
  • plan was spot on
  • kept individual losses small.
  • took a break when I got frustrated by getting chopped up around 82. Came back for last hour in better frame of mind and finished the day with a good short which significantly reduced my loss and could have turned the day green if I had held it a bit longer.

Bad
  • did not consider that day might be narrow range and so should play for tighter targets
  • should have realised after midday that market had traded in a 6pt range and therfore the middle of the range ~82 was not a place to look for trades.
  • in globex took a trade off 82 supp, after it had already been tested twice - should not trust levels after 2 tests as they get lower probability after each test.
  • should have maintained a bullish bias after loss of 82 but started thinking more bearish. After a 30pt up it takes more that an 8pt retrace to turn the trend. Should have just kept fishing for the low.
  • Was short duing the afternoon push into 79 but did not take profits once the market bounced back over 80. At the time I was thinking that the market looked like a buy but as I was short, I just held on hoping for a break of supp.

No change in levels

Bias - cautiously long (since Europe testing 88 res)

94/6 - pre NFP level
89 res
82/3 hvn (middle of rotational day)
78/79 supp
7650 b/o level
75/76
7175 rth low
60/63 <- HL on 60min chart major support
5250 low

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  #16 (permalink)
jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Thurs 14 trades, 77 cts net 0 pts

Difficult day to predict, 5min chart made little sense to me. Despite getting to 90 in globex
bulls gave up Tues trend day and fell to a capitulation low before rallying almost 10 pts into close

Good
  • made solid long trades off opening low and 74 low
  • knew that possibility of a flush existed if market kept sliding lower after lunch

Bad
  • kept watching market bounce off 78/9 in globex without making a trade
  • after lunch starting imaging a 3rd push / wedge pattern if 72 lost
  • decided to trade for a wedge ignoring my concerns for a possible acceleration down and duly lost money
  • willing to take on more risk in afternoon because of profits made in morning. However it was a much lower probability trade and did not justify the risk

Lessons
  • downtrends often end in capitulation and c/t trade better after that.
  • Been too quick to see wedges - need to balance risks more carefully
  • don't look for 3rd push/ wedge patterns if important support is broken better to wait for the flush

Plan for Friday
Bias none.

Wide trading range between 60 and 88/90. Middle of range difficult to read and should probably stick to scalps until clearer. Market stronger in European session will watch 76/8 for clues. Might get a quiet range bound Friday.

94/6
88/90
8650 h
78 top of lunch consolidation
76 hvn
6550 l
60/3 <- major supp
5250 low of decline

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jzw22
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Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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For Friday

10 trades 33 cts net 4.25 points

For week

contracts wins = 71, losses = 40, b/e = 158
points win = 212.75, losses = -97.25, b/e = -7.75

269 cts net ES 107.25 points

(b/e is a gain or loss of 1pt or less)

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  #18 (permalink)
 catdriver 
Hot Springs, Arkansas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja
Broker: optimus
Trading: ES
 
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Hi jzw22

Nice journal. i particularly like the look of your charts.

Couple questions....

1) How long have you been trading, as your summary and analysis is quite inciteful and
2) are you trading live or sim.

thanks and keep up the good work.
-Mike

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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catdriver View Post
Hi jzw22

Nice journal. i particularly like the look of your charts.

Couple questions....

1) How long have you been trading, as your summary and analysis is quite inciteful and
2) are you trading live or sim.

thanks and keep up the good work.
-Mike

Thanks for stopping by.

I opened my futures account in 2008 and I dabbled a bit. In 2010 I decided that I either needed to take it seriously or stop wasting my time. It was then that I really tried to focus in on intraday ES trading. Don Miller and Linda Raschke are the biggest influences on my trading, but I've never attended any courses or had a mentor.

All these trades are live. So yes - the 107 points I made this week is real $. But before you start thinking that I know what I'm doing, this week had my best day of the year in it and it was an outlier day. Also you'll see that pretty much every day I did at least one stupid thing and often a whole roomful of stupid things.

Also in March I had a mini-slump and my reason for starting a journal on futures.io (formerly BMT) was to try and shake myself out of it.

J

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
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Trading range 59/60 - 88/90. No point in trying to guess which way it will break. Must consider that will just keep probing the boundaries and frustrating both sides for some time.

Apple results Tuesday & Fed statement and press conf on Wednesday, likely to be choppy and rangebound until then, unless there is a rumour of more QE.

Stepping back S&P closed on its 50ma so pretty neutral price.

Bearish
- still under 20ma
- earnings not a catalyst for higher
- Nasdaq / Apple looking weaker
- worked off oversold condition by going sideways / up rather than a nice pop back to highs
- European debt saga continues
- seasonality

Bullish
- falling vix & dollar
- 10 days since spike low at 52 and unable to retest

88/90 range high
8650 H thurs
8325 H
7650 h from closing range
7350 L
70/71 first real sign of weakness will be trading under here.
67/68
6550 L thurs
59/60 range low
5250

Friday had a weak afternoon and formed a closing range 7350 to 7650. But we've already pushed down from this in globex. Possibly look for shorts if we get back to this range.

Bias short but market has been bouncy off these lower prices.

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jzw22
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Mon results

1 trade 11 contracts 8.5 points (held 1 contract into globex with 57.50 entry so approx 10 pts open profit)

When the US market opened around 60 I thought that a long bias made more sense. I held at least a 1 contract long all day, adding against support and taking profits on the pops. Was underwater at the lows but not hugely so and downward move seemed to choppy rather than impulsive so willing to take the risk.

Once market broke over 61 decided to convert my day trade into a swing trade and hold overnight and see if the market could rally back to Fridays close around 73.

The real lesson from yesterday was my inability to capture any of the downtrend in the European session. ES was in a downtrend from the opening bear bar. Al Brooks said 'on trend days with trend entries always look bad' and basically none of the p/b went quite far enough for me to take and I never liked any of the L1 entries because you would need to prior low to break to get even a 1:1 R:R. Of course in downtrends this is what happens.

Plan for Tuesday
Bias none - rallied up from 60 but not strongly. Low 60's looks like support and low 70's resistance so in no mans land right here. Trading range continues to frustrate bears and bulls.

88/90 range high
8650 H thurs
8325 H
7650 h from closing range
7350 low from Fri closing range
6400 support
5700
5400 L
5250 range high.

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
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came in long 1 ct and was long 2 overnight and into US open

Mon 1 trade, 11 cts, 19.5 pts
Tues 4 trades, 24 cts, 20 pts

Had a good read on the market today
- long @65.50 immediately after news because looked strong
- flipped to short on loss of 68
- correctly thought had made a climactic low at 63
- long into close as expecting short squeeze into AAPL results

I think my frustration had been building during the day because I had given up a lot of my profit from my long after the news as I was half thinking about holding for a bigger swing trade. So having made a bit long I ended up reversing to a short. This also went in my favor but I let the frustration of not getting filled on my limit order at the low cause me to ignore my read of the market action and stick to position all the way from a 4 point gain back to b/e. I let that frustration affect me for the next hour or so while I tried to make my short position work while I had this constant thought that the correct position was long.

Eventually got stopped on my short & was freed from the conflict of having a short position but a long bias I got back in long for the run up into AAPL results.

Overall missed 2 trades, put on 1 marginal trade and mismanaged 1 trade.

Proving very difficult to maintain a long swing trade position while still scalping because I'm not used to sitting through all the pullbacks.

Weds - Bernanke day
Bias - long, market strong as long as it holds globex lows at 73 and arguably still bullish above 70. Probably still in a 50-90 trading range.

88/90 range high
82/3 res, already tested in globex
73/6
70/1 <- rth highs would need under here before more bearish bigger picture
60/3
5250 range low

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jzw22
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Weds review
No trades - was expecting a choppy day and just could not get up any enthusiasm to trade and spent most of the day away from my computer.

Was long 2 from before AAPL results and after a lot of thought decided to exit one at 87.50 (entered at 57.50) at the close. Still thinking 94/6 is possible but now at the recent range boundary and its been one of my best trades recently so I'll take the money. Still regretting not having more contracts on. Such is the life of a trader.

In hindsight the best trade was after the 8:30 news caused a spike down that reversed. In an uptrend any sharp moves down which get reversed are great long entries because they trap any early bears.

Thurs plan
Bias - long but cautious since running out of positive catalysts.

00/01
94/6 - pre NFP levels
88/90 - possibly still important but has been breached in globex
80/1 Weds rth lows
76/7 globex lows and 38.2 retrace of rally
5250 range low

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jzw22
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Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Thursday review
2 trades 8 contracts +10.25 pts (also exitted my 1 long swing contract @96 roughly 30pts from 65 entry)

First ES trade was long p/b in globex as market pulled back from 92 to 88. Long 88 but scratched after no bounce. Good call because a few mins later fell back.

Second trade was after weekly unemployment news pushes market towards yesterdays hvn 82/3 and rth lows 80.25. This was a buy on p/b to support (see chart). If I had not scaled out this was probably a 20pt trade.

Thought about getting long over 86 but concerned that we were under resistance 88/90 and probably not trending.

Then the trade I missed because I choose to take a break. Probably the easiest trade of the month. Clean break-out over important resistance. Details in second chart.

I once saw on someones trading blog 'Trading is making regret a way of life' which exactly sums up my current sentiments.

Friday plan
ES broke decisively above resistance & Dow is practically back to its highs. S&P downgrade of Spain did push ES down in globex as a reminder that nothing is fixed on macro front, but in technical terms I would say that ES should get to new highs. Rally from 54 to 98 looks impulsive. 38.2 p/b is roughly 81.50 which corresponds to 80/2 support. GDP number should be a buy if bad.

Bias bullish - but probably just forming a bigger range

98/00 - retest of rth highs
90 - breakout level
86/7 - globex low 86.50
80/2 - rth low 81 & 38.2% retrace <- bears need under here to turn the tide
76/7

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jzw22
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Friday - no trades. Busy during European session which was a big mistake since there was a very tradeable uptrend) and saw nothing in RTH that looked high probability.

For the week
48 cts, net 86.50 (quite a contrast to last weeks 250+ contracts).

Most of the profits came from the 2 swing contracts I held from Mondays low and Tuesday. The fact that I was prepared to hold thru AAPL results & Fed helped. Not sure how wise that was but it worked out.

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jzw22
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New week and almost a new month. First few days of month have an upward bias. Various PMI figures early in week and NFP Friday. Good NFP print could push ES to new highs.

Couple of things to try and focus on this month
  • adding to winning positions - got to try and break my habit of scaling out of positions as soon as they go my way. So when in profit will look for places to add to my position.
  • Avoid varying number of contracts so widely. Last month traded anything between 1-10 contracts, so try and limit 2-5 with option to add to winning positions.

market is in an uptrend having made a strong 5 day move up off 1354. The decline from 1420 to 1354 looks like a p/b in an uptrend and there was no confirmed trend change on daily chart. Bulls are in charge over 88/90 and even then 80 looks like major support. 1440 may be a higher target, although given seasonality may form a higher trading range over 90.

Move up is approx 50 pts & largest decline 12.5

Bias long/buy dips

16/20 wide res band at March highs
0275 H
98 Fri hvn
9300 L - slightly weak under here
88/90 thurs hvn + breakout level
8550/8650 Fri globex low and within lower part of Thurs hvn
80/2 major support and top of rth window <- bears still need under here really
71 bottom of rth window
60
50/55 low of decline - need a close under here to change daily trend to down

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jzw22
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33 contracts 5 pts.

Very narrow range 7.25 in rth. Over traded today. Need to be much more patient on choppy days and possibly just stop trading as the risk/reward is just not there.

Started day well, shorted under opening bear trend bar because thought push away from 97 & hvn might mark high for day. Covered after PMI but then when market traded down to 91 started trying for a reversal and lost money in the chop. Only other opportunity was into the close where I was long but ended up getting stopped out of my long on a spike down.

Made 3 mistakes
  • Forgot PMI figures released 3 mins earlier to subscribers 9.42. Was lucky because I was short at the time.
  • Once the market started forming a range 91-93.50 should have just stepped aside. Was trying to buy low of range but with better support 88/90 was unclear where my stop should be.
  • Near the close pulled stop up to 1 tick under recent low. I had a limit order get filled which left me 2 contracts long but then did not adjust the stop down quickly enough and a few seconds later a spike down hit my stop and bounced back I was now short 1 contract with an instant 1 point loss.

Bias none - will watch yest rth high & low (90 97) and stay away from the middle chopfest.

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jzw22
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15 cts -19 points.

Well it had to happen after a good run. Nearly always lose money on days when there is a big reversal because I like to buy pullbacks. Trying for the pullback was fine since I was patient and waited for a deeper move but the size of the loss was the real problem. Once market got under 06 did accelerate to downside.

Although opened my long before 3pm I forgot the number 1 rule of trading ES in afternoon which is to never trade counter-trend in the last half hour. The trend moves into the close can kill you.

Possible that the move to 12 was a high volume climax. Trading at 97 now in globex so still holding some of yesterdays gains.

No bias
Will watch 90/2 and 1400 for directions.

06 res
00
90/2

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jzw22
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No trades. (Was away at US open). Having missed the reversal trade did not want to buy the subsequent pullbacks although they were reasonable trades.

Bears have reversed all of Tuesdays spike up but could not push through 88/90 and bulls pushed market up to 1400 by close maintaining pattern of HLs after 89 low yesterday.

Rangebound in European session 96-00 but difficult to be bearish under 96 since hvn just a bit lower. Right now market testing 00.

Bias long above 93

1175 rally high
0475 H globex
9950 H rth - DT
93/95 hvn and string of HLs
8925 L
88/90 key support zone

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jzw22
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Review Thurs
3 trades 30 contracts +22 pts

profittable day but could easily have been a big loss because I let a trade run against me and waited for a bounce to come.

Number of mistakes today
  • Ignored signs of weakness early on. Unemployment figures caused a pop to 1402 but this was reversed quickly. Also opened back inside yest range. Should have exitted my long position here at b/e. Instead continued to hold thinking that trading at 98/9 was a sign of strength. But should have remembered Mark Fisher's - Good News Bad Action saying
  • Poor ISM figures and market sells off - should immediately have dumped position for a loss at 95 but waited for a bounce. Let the market run to 91 and then got very lucky and the market made a V reversal and I exitted at 95, which seemed like a really good price now after it had been at 91!
  • Immediately went short a full position at 95 but the logical place for a stop is over the pre-news level at 98 so realistically I had to hold my short thru 3 points (which I did although it was very close). Should have scaled into shorts given the wide resistance band or got out at 96 and looked to re-enter at a better price.
  • On final long should had dumped whole postion into res rather than leaving 1 ct for a possible break higher. Lost 2 points by not taking profits

After this got it together traded decline into 85 and bounce back to 90 well and finished day in green.

Fri plan - NFP
Market testing lower in Europe likely to reamain weak until NFP. After that anything could happen. European holiday on Monday so probably only trade until Europe close as likely to be thin & choppy after.

If NFP is poor could see a more a big down day since I don't think most longs from above the b/o level @ 90 have liqudated their positions yet.

Bias none - but long over 90.

99/00 H 99.25 - Weds & Thurs highs here possible short squeeze above
90 - immediate level for bulls to recover
77/80 - first obvious support level and post-AAPL results level

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jzw22
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Monday a holiday here in UK so a bit late with this and possibly won't trade today.

Friday was another trend day that I messed up. Always prefer deeper pullbacks and they just didn't come on stronger days. Was short around 83 but some how talked myself out of it. Also around 70 decided to try for a long which was a mistake.

Weekend European elections caused a big gap down in ES but its been rallying steadily from 42 low to open back in low 60s. Possible that 42 was the low and we'll move higher from here back towards 75.

Daily chart did not look oversold to me after Fridays close, would need at least 1 or 2 more down days. But daily chart is close to making a trend change and a S&P close under 1357 would end the uptrend. Not convinced this will lead to much of a decline though. Market still seems resilient.

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jzw22
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Mon - a holiday for me. Looked like there were a couple of decent trades long off 66 and then short against 69.

Daily trend is still up. Currently needs a close under S&P 1340, SPY 133.77. Still think S&P is in some kind of big choppy range.

Yesterday buyers active under 1360 pushing market up from 1342 to 70. Suggests that the sharp move down from 1412 has ended and forming a range. Yest rth H L provide obvious markers at 60 & 70. Currently testing 60 in European session so some weakness, Euro testing 1.30 level at same time. Euro also failed to get back to Fridays range so that is slightly bearish.

Bias short under 63. If ES recovers hvn 65 will start thinking about long side.

7400
7025 H
64/5 hvn
5925 L
5075
4250 L globex

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jzw22
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Tues
1 trade long from 47 stopped Net loss 1 pt

Never took the downside break from the opening range and only made the one long trade. Was worried we might see a V shaped bounce so never went short and in the end also missed the rally.

Weds
ES weak in European session trading around 48. Immediate res is 51/2 and unless bulls can recapture this a retest and most likely a break of the lows at 42/4 seems on. Bears remain in control unless we can get back to 63 area.

Immediate trend is down but 42/4 now support. Daily SPY chart printed a decent hammer but needs follow through.
Bias short under 63 but will switch if we see a test down to low 40's and a recovery of 52. Under 51/2 bulls have nothing.

6225 H
5875 close
5200
48/9 hvn
4600 higher low
4375 L
42/4 major support

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jzw22
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Weds
Had to be away at the open but did have order to cover a small short position. By the time I came back market had bounced to 56. Volatile day with a 21.50 pt rth range. Strong buying after push to new lows but weak close.

Thurs
Globex already tested under 50 but now higher at 57. Looks like sellers at 60/3 and buyers under 42. Still have a pattern of lower highs on 30min chart so bears still have a chance but yesterdays push to new lows followed by sharp rally means that time is running out for them. Also daily chart printed another high volume reversal candle. Over 63 should have a shot at 70.

bias none watching 50 & 57 and will trade away from them

70/1
60/3 res band
5075 H rth
57
52/3 hvn
49 supp
3925 L

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jzw22
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Thurs
3 trades 23 contracts net 4.25 ES pts

shorted push up into 62/3 but took a 1 point stop then got back in at stop price and scalped out most contracts held 1 ct all the way throught the morning low and finally took profits almost at high of bounce giving up about 5 pts of open profit. My problem was I scaled out too fast because I wanted to lock in profits of make up my previous loss and then held final ct too long.

In fact the story of my day was not taking profits on trades that went a small way in my favour and reversed ending up with a loss and taking profits too early on the trade that went 6 points in my favour.

Fri
Shaping up for a gap down open following JPM loss news. Globex seems fairly stable holding near 50. Being Friday my expectation is for a range bound day.

Bias short under 53/4 (already tested once in globex). Over 54 likely to gap fill at 5725.

6300 H globex high was 6375
61/3 major res
5725 close
57/8 hvn
53/4 imm res - low for majority of day
5150 L
42/4 globex low 4375
3925 L2 Thursday low for decline

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jzw22
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Last week saw a choppy range between 46-63 with 4 failures to push over 60/3 res
Daily chart was close to oversold on Friday and will probably be today if we close under 40. That means this is a dangerous area to open new swing shorts.
Daily trend turns down on close under SPX 1340, SPY 133.77 (March lows).
Friday was new closing low for decline and a 46d closing low but still only a 5% decline in S&P.
Europe trading under prior lows 3925
Next ES swing low is 32 the March lows, with plenty of support in low 30s.

Bias short rallies under 52. First sign of stabilisation would be getting back into Fri rth range, but under that no reasons to be long

6325 high
59/60 hvn (rth)
5200 res - bearish under this level
5000 close
4550 rth low
3925 week low

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jzw22
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Tried something different on Mon decided to trade crude because I thought that 94 might be support. When I started watching around the pit open it looked like a HL had been put so traded long provided the low at the pit open was not taken out. Had to enter and exit a few times before CL pushed over 94.40. Held on till pit close when I got lucky and my limit was filled on a spike up 1 tick off the high. A few mins later crude was 20c lower.

long 1, 94.27, 94.28, 0.01, 00:09:47
long 1, 94.25, 94.32, 0.07, 00:31:05
long 1, 94.05, 94.15, 0.10, 00:13:08
long 1, 94.14, 94.15, 0.01, 00:11:18
long 1, 94.05, 95.06, 1.01, 04:14:06

net 1.19

Still think 94 looks a decent support zone.

SPX closed at 70d low and daily trend now down. RSI(9) oversold although by other measures it is not oversold & volume on Monday was light.

ES stronger in globex did get to 47 but fell back needs to hold over 45/6. Bulls need over 52 to end decline.

Bias short under 46

60/3 - 62.50 is 38.2 retrace of decline 1411/1332
50/2 hvn Fri bulls need above here
4450/4600 Fri rth low 4550
4475 H
37/8 hvn
3325 L
32/3 supp

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  #38 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
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Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
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Great trading on the ES and today on CL. (+119 ticks!)
Impressed and inspired by the live trading. Thanks.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
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  #39 (permalink)
jzw22
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thanks Cloudy.

Crude was just luck I haven't traded it in 6 months & I was determined to hold for a $1 move.

My own trading the last 2 weeks has sucked. Not so much because I have lost money but because I've not really taken the trades that were available. I've either just not taken them (like shorts in 60/3 area) or scalped out for a few ticks or I've been too cautious and not got enough size on. With the higher volatility you really have press because its easier to make 5 points on a volatile day than 2 points on a narrow rangebound day.

My belief is that good day traders have a bigger edge in more volatile markets so its important to really make the most of them while they last because when we go back to <10pt ES ranges it is going to be difficult to make any money and really you just want to take a holiday when the market is like that.

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jzw22
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Tues
Left crude alone. Good thing since 94 failed. 92 would be my next area.

ES down but not an easy day as we traded both sides of the opening range. Market lost support 32/3 in final hour but did not fall apart. Fallen to 21 in European session but now back over rth lows at 28.

Frustrating day for me as I thought about early longs against 32/3 (hardest trades are often the best) but chickened out. Was hoping to short 44/5 but never got there. In the end did get some shorts on but rather than short the push into 38 I waited to until it dropped to 35. Should have added to this trade as it broke support, since there was potential for a nice move & should have held some into globex but covered most on spike up.

Weds
Bonds look like a tempting short in 146-148 area as its hard to see how that ends well in the long run.
S&P oversold but no climactic volume. A rally from these levels would not surprise me but need a catalyst to get things going. Alternatively we get more news from Greece and continue lower. Obviously suffering from a liquidity crunch with gold/crude falling so much.

Bias - short under 35 but wary of a short squeeze

50/2 hvn Fri
4450/4600 window Fri - Mon
4275 H
35/6 hvn bulls need to hold here & start building a base
32/3 res
2550 L
2075 L globex

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jzw22
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Weds
Tried shorting several times but only got paid on the final one. I really should have held the first trade to a profit rathen than getting shaken out. But final trade was sensible. Did forget about FOMC minutes which meant sitting through a 4 point spike up until it faded and I got out at b/e.

3 trades 15 cts 24 pts

Thurs
Yest gap up and early rally was sold into and market closed on its lows. Weakest rth day since NFP. S&P oversold but voulme yesterday was not climactic.

Globex tested 30 but now at new lows.

Bias short. First sign of strength is holding over 30 but realistically need over 34.

50/2 hvn Fri
4450/4600 window Fri-Mon 4475 4550
4250 H2
3975 H
3350 bulls need to hold over this level
30/2 hvn imm res
2250 cl
2200 L
2075 globex low

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jzw22
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Thurs
I shorted pre-mkt the push into 25 and I continue to hold that trade in small size. Unfortunately I had to be away shortly after the open hence my short pre-mkt. By the time I came back after the news the market was rallying back from a new low. At this point I was unsure whether we had put in the low and would get back into the 30's. However despite the 8pt rally I should have stayed bearish until the ES had broken an important res level. I then watched the market rool over from 20 and then bounce of 09. At this point I wanted to short 17 s/r but never pulled the trigger. I knew that there was a good chance that any sell-off would get nasty but just never did it and my risk was at most 3points and probably only 6 ticks.

Lessons - don't be swayed by sharp counter trend moves, counter trend moves have to break important s/r levels to amount to anything. Just because a market bounces hard does not make it a trend change.

Fri plan
Oversold on daily. My backtesting suggests that buying here for a swing trade is the right thing to do.

MATD in Don Miller speak. Absent some money printing rumour which could spark a crazy oversold rally can probably see a consolidation at the lows.

Bias short. First sign of strength is getting back over yest high 25.

50/2 hvn Fri
4450/4600 window Fri-Mon 4475 4550
4250 H2
3975 H
3350
24/25 H 2450 bulls need to hold over this level
20/22
16/18
08/10
0050 L
9350 globex L

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jzw22
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Fri review
Downtrend continues was able to get short on rally up to hvn. Market then rolled over and closed on lows. Very similar to Thursdays trade which I did not take but the rally got up to the hvn so I was a bit closer to my ultimate stop at 08.

Mon plan
Stronger in globex but that is not saying much. Globex high 03 but realistically needs to get over Fri high at 10/11 before I will start thinking that the downtrend is over.

Bias short.

2475
2175
18/19 hvn Thu
1750
1050 H
0575
04/06 hvn Fri
03 globex H 0275
8975

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jzw22
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Mon
Trend day up, strong uptrend after broke above 1300 in RTH, did pause at Fridays highs 10/11 before closing on high tick. Globex strong but running up into resistance from Thursday.

Did think about buying the morning breakout but wanted to short higher. Scaled into shorts around 10 and scalped some and stopped on remainder for a small loss. Happy with the loss. Did also short bonds (ZB) at 148'01 but covered at 147'25 because I did not want to hold overnight. That was definitely a mistake. Its possible that we've seen a major top in bonds so I should really have kept this trade on.

Lessons
  • Put bond trade on because I was looking for a swing trade but then changed my timeframe and scalped out for 8 ticks. Should have stuck with my plan for that trade.

Plan Tues
Nice bounce from oversold levels. 38.2 retrace is around 35 just over 40 looks like a major level for the bulls. Multiple layers of overhead resistance now but if the news continues to be positive could easily see the market test 1340/50 area this week.

Might look to short crude if we get back into 9400/9450 area

Bias - none. Market looks more two sided now. Will probably look to short a push into 20/1 but will take any good long set-up.

3475 38.2% retrace of decline
2475
2175
18/19 hvn Thu
1750 breakdown level from Thurs
1600 H
1050 s/r
8/9 hvn Mon
03 globex H 0275
9375 L & pot HL
8725 L for decline

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jzw22
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Weds / Thurs review
Took a few days off from writing journal (better weather and higher volatility meant I wanted to spend a bit of time away from screen).

Generally been looking to short pushes up. Worked ok because despite the general upward bias this week there have been some sharp drops. Was short the double top yest shorting 21 and adding at 20. Held down to 13 but should really have added more once we broke under 18. Gave back about half my profit in the afternoon crazy rally into the close, should have been more cautious over 18 because market had recovered above hvn of day and 20ema so a rally into the close was possible. In fact this was the 3rd strong close this week.

Fri Plan
Up week so far, in fact RTH low was Monday open at 94 (retested on Weds). Decent oversold bounce, market ignoring lack of progress on Europe and general weakness in Euro and crude and pushing higher. So far advance has been choppy with plenty of pullbacks. However if we can hold over 22/3 region will look better.

Bias - neutral but market reasonably strong over 22/3. Had a number of strong closing runs this week.

3325 A=C if making ABC up
30/1 H Thurs 3075
2650 H Tues
22/3 DT Thurs (H Thurs a bit higher but made late in session)
14/5 L of afternoon rally 1425
0825 L Thurs rth
9400 HL (Mon RTH low which has held for rest of week)
8725 L decline

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jzw22
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After a few days break from journalling

Weds review
Good
  • Always traded short never tempted to bottom fish
  • Added to my late day short as market moved in my favour

Not So Good
  • Never put a partial position on against 17 res which was ideal trade location
  • Gave up a little bit of profit by being a bit late in covering on bounce but my idea was to hold some for a larger swing down rather than scalping out everything

Thursday
Market recovered from globex lows at 06 but weak after GDP numbers at test YL. Bulls need to recapture 21/2 area which is going to be difficult given Euro weakness.

Bias - short bounces, breakdowns - everything basically

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  #47 (permalink)
jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 35 received

Thurs review
Tough day for me, profittable but sat through a late day crazy rally with a sizeable loss. Obviously should have bailed on my shorts earlier, kept some of my profits and then looked for a better short entry.

Held a small position overnight because of weak close and China PMI numbers. So far this is paying off.

Did well
  • Entries were good & exits I took were also sensible

Did badly
  • Held on to my losing trade waiting for next resistance level
  • Ignored the trend change
  • Ignored the reversal above the opening high

Friday plan
Weak overnight and in Europe. Trading under yest L at 97 so in an obvious downtrend. NFP.

Bias short - but will respect trend reversals and need to be careful around NFP.

1900 H
06/8 res
01/3 res European session
9725 L
8725 low of decline

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jzw22
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 35 received

I've had a few days away from trading given the extended holiday last week in UK and kids being off and other reasons.

Monday - choose to watch action to try and get back into things.

Tuesday - decided to trade all day from early in Europe right into US close. Traded a crazy 28 sequences and 174 contracts for a net 69.25 points. Part of this was trading with tighter stops although the increased volatility does provide a lot more trades.

Weds - trading all prices ES U2
Big picture rally looking OK above 1300 & closing above 22 sign of strength would be a new closing high for rally.

Tues was a trend day up - expect consolidation above 14
Europe trading sideways range 15-20.
bias bullish over 14 if market loses 97/00 then will leave an H&S

2025 H but spike high
1550 swing low
1400 breakout
10/11 hvn
0725
9900 L
9875 50% retrace of rally 1355-1342
9700 globex lows
8850 61.8% retrace
80/4 below here a restest of lows might be on
5550 rally low

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  #49 (permalink)
atfuturist
chicago usa
 
 
Posts: 2 since May 2012
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

It looks like you are using ThinkorSwim. If you are, how did you setup the volume profile like you did?

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