Tried shorting several times but only got paid on the final one. I really should have held the first trade to a profit rathen than getting shaken out. But final trade was sensible. Did forget about FOMC minutes which meant sitting through a 4 point spike up until it faded and I got out at b/e.
I shorted pre-mkt the push into 25 and I continue to hold that trade in small size. Unfortunately I had to be away shortly after the open hence my short pre-mkt. By the time I came back after the news the market was rallying back from a new low. At this point I was unsure whether we had put in the low and would get back into the 30's. However despite the 8pt rally I should have stayed bearish until the ES had broken an important res level. I then watched the market rool over from 20 and then bounce of 09. At this point I wanted to short 17 s/r but never pulled the trigger. I knew that there was a good chance that any sell-off would get nasty but just never did it and my risk was at most 3points and probably only 6 ticks.
Lessons - don't be swayed by sharp counter trend moves, counter trend moves have to break important s/r levels to amount to anything. Just because a market bounces hard does not make it a trend change.
Oversold on daily. My backtesting suggests that buying here for a swing trade is the right thing to do.
MATD in Don Miller speak. Absent some money printing rumour which could spark a crazy oversold rally can probably see a consolidation at the lows.
Bias short. First sign of strength is getting back over yest high 25.
50/2 hvn Fri
4450/4600 window Fri-Mon 4475 4550
24/25 H 2450 bulls need to hold over this level
9350 globex L
Downtrend continues was able to get short on rally up to hvn. Market then rolled over and closed on lows. Very similar to Thursdays trade which I did not take but the rally got up to the hvn so I was a bit closer to my ultimate stop at 08.
Stronger in globex but that is not saying much. Globex high 03 but realistically needs to get over Fri high at 10/11 before I will start thinking that the downtrend is over.
Mon Trend day up, strong uptrend after broke above 1300 in RTH, did pause at Fridays highs 10/11 before closing on high tick. Globex strong but running up into resistance from Thursday.
Did think about buying the morning breakout but wanted to short higher. Scaled into shorts around 10 and scalped some and stopped on remainder for a small loss. Happy with the loss. Did also short bonds (ZB) at 148'01 but covered at 147'25 because I did not want to hold overnight. That was definitely a mistake. Its possible that we've seen a major top in bonds so I should really have kept this trade on.
Put bond trade on because I was looking for a swing trade but then changed my timeframe and scalped out for 8 ticks. Should have stuck with my plan for that trade.
Nice bounce from oversold levels. 38.2 retrace is around 35 just over 40 looks like a major level for the bulls. Multiple layers of overhead resistance now but if the news continues to be positive could easily see the market test 1340/50 area this week.
Might look to short crude if we get back into 9400/9450 area
Bias - none. Market looks more two sided now. Will probably look to short a push into 20/1 but will take any good long set-up.
3475 38.2% retrace of decline
18/19 hvn Thu
1750 breakdown level from Thurs
8/9 hvn Mon
03 globex H 0275
9375 L & pot HL
8725 L for decline
Weds / Thurs review
Took a few days off from writing journal (better weather and higher volatility meant I wanted to spend a bit of time away from screen).
Generally been looking to short pushes up. Worked ok because despite the general upward bias this week there have been some sharp drops. Was short the double top yest shorting 21 and adding at 20. Held down to 13 but should really have added more once we broke under 18. Gave back about half my profit in the afternoon crazy rally into the close, should have been more cautious over 18 because market had recovered above hvn of day and 20ema so a rally into the close was possible. In fact this was the 3rd strong close this week.
Up week so far, in fact RTH low was Monday open at 94 (retested on Weds). Decent oversold bounce, market ignoring lack of progress on Europe and general weakness in Euro and crude and pushing higher. So far advance has been choppy with plenty of pullbacks. However if we can hold over 22/3 region will look better.
Bias - neutral but market reasonably strong over 22/3. Had a number of strong closing runs this week.
3325 A=C if making ABC up
30/1 H Thurs 3075
2650 H Tues
22/3 DT Thurs (H Thurs a bit higher but made late in session)
14/5 L of afternoon rally 1425
0825 L Thurs rth
9400 HL (Mon RTH low which has held for rest of week)
8725 L decline
Tough day for me, profittable but sat through a late day crazy rally with a sizeable loss. Obviously should have bailed on my shorts earlier, kept some of my profits and then looked for a better short entry.
Held a small position overnight because of weak close and China PMI numbers. So far this is paying off.
Entries were good & exits I took were also sensible
Held on to my losing trade waiting for next resistance level
Ignored the trend change
Ignored the reversal above the opening high
Weak overnight and in Europe. Trading under yest L at 97 so in an obvious downtrend. NFP.
Bias short - but will respect trend reversals and need to be careful around NFP.
01/3 res European session
8725 low of decline
I've had a few days away from trading given the extended holiday last week in UK and kids being off and other reasons.
Monday - choose to watch action to try and get back into things.
Tuesday - decided to trade all day from early in Europe right into US close. Traded a crazy 28 sequences and 174 contracts for a net 69.25 points. Part of this was trading with tighter stops although the increased volatility does provide a lot more trades.
Weds - trading all prices ES U2
Big picture rally looking OK above 1300 & closing above 22 sign of strength would be a new closing high for rally.
Tues was a trend day up - expect consolidation above 14
Europe trading sideways range 15-20. bias bullish over 14 if market loses 97/00 then will leave an H&S
2025 H but spike high
1550 swing low
9875 50% retrace of rally 1355-1342
9700 globex lows
8850 61.8% retrace
80/4 below here a restest of lows might be on
5550 rally low