Monday a holiday here in UK so a bit late with this and possibly won't trade today.
Friday was another trend day that I messed up. Always prefer deeper pullbacks and they just didn't come on stronger days. Was short around 83 but some how talked myself out of it. Also around 70 decided to try for a long which was a mistake.
Weekend European elections caused a big gap down in ES but its been rallying steadily from 42 low to open back in low 60s. Possible that 42 was the low and we'll move higher from here back towards 75.
Daily chart did not look oversold to me after Fridays close, would need at least 1 or 2 more down days. But daily chart is close to making a trend change and a S&P close under 1357 would end the uptrend. Not convinced this will lead to much of a decline though. Market still seems resilient.
Mon - a holiday for me. Looked like there were a couple of decent trades long off 66 and then short against 69.
Daily trend is still up. Currently needs a close under S&P 1340, SPY 133.77. Still think S&P is in some kind of big choppy range.
Yesterday buyers active under 1360 pushing market up from 1342 to 70. Suggests that the sharp move down from 1412 has ended and forming a range. Yest rth H L provide obvious markers at 60 & 70. Currently testing 60 in European session so some weakness, Euro testing 1.30 level at same time. Euro also failed to get back to Fridays range so that is slightly bearish.
Never took the downside break from the opening range and only made the one long trade. Was worried we might see a V shaped bounce so never went short and in the end also missed the rally.
ES weak in European session trading around 48. Immediate res is 51/2 and unless bulls can recapture this a retest and most likely a break of the lows at 42/4 seems on. Bears remain in control unless we can get back to 63 area.
Immediate trend is down but 42/4 now support. Daily SPY chart printed a decent hammer but needs follow through. Bias short under 63 but will switch if we see a test down to low 40's and a recovery of 52. Under 51/2 bulls have nothing.
4600 higher low
42/4 major support
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Had to be away at the open but did have order to cover a small short position. By the time I came back market had bounced to 56. Volatile day with a 21.50 pt rth range. Strong buying after push to new lows but weak close.
Globex already tested under 50 but now higher at 57. Looks like sellers at 60/3 and buyers under 42. Still have a pattern of lower highs on 30min chart so bears still have a chance but yesterdays push to new lows followed by sharp rally means that time is running out for them. Also daily chart printed another high volume reversal candle. Over 63 should have a shot at 70.
bias none watching 50 & 57 and will trade away from them
60/3 res band
5075 H rth
shorted push up into 62/3 but took a 1 point stop then got back in at stop price and scalped out most contracts held 1 ct all the way throught the morning low and finally took profits almost at high of bounce giving up about 5 pts of open profit. My problem was I scaled out too fast because I wanted to lock in profits of make up my previous loss and then held final ct too long.
In fact the story of my day was not taking profits on trades that went a small way in my favour and reversed ending up with a loss and taking profits too early on the trade that went 6 points in my favour.
Shaping up for a gap down open following JPM loss news. Globex seems fairly stable holding near 50. Being Friday my expectation is for a range bound day.
Bias short under 53/4 (already tested once in globex). Over 54 likely to gap fill at 5725.
6300 H globex high was 6375
61/3 major res
53/4 imm res - low for majority of day
42/4 globex low 4375
3925 L2 Thursday low for decline
Last week saw a choppy range between 46-63 with 4 failures to push over 60/3 res
Daily chart was close to oversold on Friday and will probably be today if we close under 40. That means this is a dangerous area to open new swing shorts.
Daily trend turns down on close under SPX 1340, SPY 133.77 (March lows).
Friday was new closing low for decline and a 46d closing low but still only a 5% decline in S&P.
Europe trading under prior lows 3925
Next ES swing low is 32 the March lows, with plenty of support in low 30s.
Bias short rallies under 52. First sign of stabilisation would be getting back into Fri rth range, but under that no reasons to be long
59/60 hvn (rth)
5200 res - bearish under this level
4550 rth low
3925 week low
Tried something different on Mon decided to trade crude because I thought that 94 might be support. When I started watching around the pit open it looked like a HL had been put so traded long provided the low at the pit open was not taken out. Had to enter and exit a few times before CL pushed over 94.40. Held on till pit close when I got lucky and my limit was filled on a spike up 1 tick off the high. A few mins later crude was 20c lower.
long 1, 94.27, 94.28, 0.01, 00:09:47
long 1, 94.25, 94.32, 0.07, 00:31:05
long 1, 94.05, 94.15, 0.10, 00:13:08
long 1, 94.14, 94.15, 0.01, 00:11:18
long 1, 94.05, 95.06, 1.01, 04:14:06
Still think 94 looks a decent support zone.
SPX closed at 70d low and daily trend now down. RSI(9) oversold although by other measures it is not oversold & volume on Monday was light.
ES stronger in globex did get to 47 but fell back needs to hold over 45/6. Bulls need over 52 to end decline.
Crude was just luck I haven't traded it in 6 months & I was determined to hold for a $1 move.
My own trading the last 2 weeks has sucked. Not so much because I have lost money but because I've not really taken the trades that were available. I've either just not taken them (like shorts in 60/3 area) or scalped out for a few ticks or I've been too cautious and not got enough size on. With the higher volatility you really have press because its easier to make 5 points on a volatile day than 2 points on a narrow rangebound day.
My belief is that good day traders have a bigger edge in more volatile markets so its important to really make the most of them while they last because when we go back to <10pt ES ranges it is going to be difficult to make any money and really you just want to take a holiday when the market is like that.
Left crude alone. Good thing since 94 failed. 92 would be my next area.
ES down but not an easy day as we traded both sides of the opening range. Market lost support 32/3 in final hour but did not fall apart. Fallen to 21 in European session but now back over rth lows at 28.
Frustrating day for me as I thought about early longs against 32/3 (hardest trades are often the best) but chickened out. Was hoping to short 44/5 but never got there. In the end did get some shorts on but rather than short the push into 38 I waited to until it dropped to 35. Should have added to this trade as it broke support, since there was potential for a nice move & should have held some into globex but covered most on spike up.
Bonds look like a tempting short in 146-148 area as its hard to see how that ends well in the long run.
S&P oversold but no climactic volume. A rally from these levels would not surprise me but need a catalyst to get things going. Alternatively we get more news from Greece and continue lower. Obviously suffering from a liquidity crunch with gold/crude falling so much.