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ES day trading Journal
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ES day trading Journal

  #21 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IB,MultiCharts
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 50 since Apr 2012
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Mon results

1 trade 11 contracts 8.5 points (held 1 contract into globex with 57.50 entry so approx 10 pts open profit)

When the US market opened around 60 I thought that a long bias made more sense. I held at least a 1 contract long all day, adding against support and taking profits on the pops. Was underwater at the lows but not hugely so and downward move seemed to choppy rather than impulsive so willing to take the risk.

Once market broke over 61 decided to convert my day trade into a swing trade and hold overnight and see if the market could rally back to Fridays close around 73.

The real lesson from yesterday was my inability to capture any of the downtrend in the European session. ES was in a downtrend from the opening bear bar. Al Brooks said 'on trend days with trend entries always look bad' and basically none of the p/b went quite far enough for me to take and I never liked any of the L1 entries because you would need to prior low to break to get even a 1:1 R:R. Of course in downtrends this is what happens.

Plan for Tuesday
Bias none - rallied up from 60 but not strongly. Low 60's looks like support and low 70's resistance so in no mans land right here. Trading range continues to frustrate bears and bulls.

88/90 range high
8650 H thurs
8325 H
7650 h from closing range
7350 low from Fri closing range
6400 support
5700
5400 L
5250 range high.

Attached Thumbnails
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  #22 (permalink)
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Weds

came in long 1 ct and was long 2 overnight and into US open

Mon 1 trade, 11 cts, 19.5 pts
Tues 4 trades, 24 cts, 20 pts

Had a good read on the market today
- long @65.50 immediately after news because looked strong
- flipped to short on loss of 68
- correctly thought had made a climactic low at 63
- long into close as expecting short squeeze into AAPL results

I think my frustration had been building during the day because I had given up a lot of my profit from my long after the news as I was half thinking about holding for a bigger swing trade. So having made a bit long I ended up reversing to a short. This also went in my favor but I let the frustration of not getting filled on my limit order at the low cause me to ignore my read of the market action and stick to position all the way from a 4 point gain back to b/e. I let that frustration affect me for the next hour or so while I tried to make my short position work while I had this constant thought that the correct position was long.

Eventually got stopped on my short & was freed from the conflict of having a short position but a long bias I got back in long for the run up into AAPL results.

Overall missed 2 trades, put on 1 marginal trade and mismanaged 1 trade.

Proving very difficult to maintain a long swing trade position while still scalping because I'm not used to sitting through all the pullbacks.

Weds - Bernanke day
Bias - long, market strong as long as it holds globex lows at 73 and arguably still bullish above 70. Probably still in a 50-90 trading range.

88/90 range high
82/3 res, already tested in globex
73/6
70/1 <- rth highs would need under here before more bearish bigger picture
60/3
5250 range low

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  #23 (permalink)
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Weds review
No trades - was expecting a choppy day and just could not get up any enthusiasm to trade and spent most of the day away from my computer.

Was long 2 from before AAPL results and after a lot of thought decided to exit one at 87.50 (entered at 57.50) at the close. Still thinking 94/6 is possible but now at the recent range boundary and its been one of my best trades recently so I'll take the money. Still regretting not having more contracts on. Such is the life of a trader.

In hindsight the best trade was after the 8:30 news caused a spike down that reversed. In an uptrend any sharp moves down which get reversed are great long entries because they trap any early bears.

Thurs plan
Bias - long but cautious since running out of positive catalysts.

00/01
94/6 - pre NFP levels
88/90 - possibly still important but has been breached in globex
80/1 Weds rth lows
76/7 globex lows and 38.2 retrace of rally
5250 range low

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ES day trading Journal-thurs26.png  
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  #24 (permalink)
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Fri

Thursday review
2 trades 8 contracts +10.25 pts (also exitted my 1 long swing contract @96 roughly 30pts from 65 entry)

First ES trade was long p/b in globex as market pulled back from 92 to 88. Long 88 but scratched after no bounce. Good call because a few mins later fell back.

Second trade was after weekly unemployment news pushes market towards yesterdays hvn 82/3 and rth lows 80.25. This was a buy on p/b to support (see chart). If I had not scaled out this was probably a 20pt trade.

Thought about getting long over 86 but concerned that we were under resistance 88/90 and probably not trending.

Then the trade I missed because I choose to take a break. Probably the easiest trade of the month. Clean break-out over important resistance. Details in second chart.

I once saw on someones trading blog 'Trading is making regret a way of life' which exactly sums up my current sentiments.

Friday plan
ES broke decisively above resistance & Dow is practically back to its highs. S&P downgrade of Spain did push ES down in globex as a reminder that nothing is fixed on macro front, but in technical terms I would say that ES should get to new highs. Rally from 54 to 98 looks impulsive. 38.2 p/b is roughly 81.50 which corresponds to 80/2 support. GDP number should be a buy if bad.

Bias bullish - but probably just forming a bigger range

98/00 - retest of rth highs
90 - breakout level
86/7 - globex low 86.50
80/2 - rth low 81 & 38.2% retrace <- bears need under here to turn the tide
76/7

Attached Thumbnails
ES day trading Journal-es-26_04.png   ES day trading Journal-es-06-12-1-min-26_04_2012.png  

Last edited by jzw22; April 27th, 2012 at 06:19 AM.
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  #25 (permalink)
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Summary of week

Friday - no trades. Busy during European session which was a big mistake since there was a very tradeable uptrend) and saw nothing in RTH that looked high probability.

For the week
48 cts, net 86.50 (quite a contrast to last weeks 250+ contracts).

Most of the profits came from the 2 swing contracts I held from Mondays low and Tuesday. The fact that I was prepared to hold thru AAPL results & Fed helped. Not sure how wise that was but it worked out.

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  #26 (permalink)
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New week and almost a new month. First few days of month have an upward bias. Various PMI figures early in week and NFP Friday. Good NFP print could push ES to new highs.

Couple of things to try and focus on this month
  • adding to winning positions - got to try and break my habit of scaling out of positions as soon as they go my way. So when in profit will look for places to add to my position.
  • Avoid varying number of contracts so widely. Last month traded anything between 1-10 contracts, so try and limit 2-5 with option to add to winning positions.

market is in an uptrend having made a strong 5 day move up off 1354. The decline from 1420 to 1354 looks like a p/b in an uptrend and there was no confirmed trend change on daily chart. Bulls are in charge over 88/90 and even then 80 looks like major support. 1440 may be a higher target, although given seasonality may form a higher trading range over 90.

Move up is approx 50 pts & largest decline 12.5

Bias long/buy dips

16/20 wide res band at March highs
0275 H
98 Fri hvn
9300 L - slightly weak under here
88/90 thurs hvn + breakout level
8550/8650 Fri globex low and within lower part of Thurs hvn
80/2 major support and top of rth window <- bears still need under here really
71 bottom of rth window
60
50/55 low of decline - need a close under here to change daily trend to down

Attached Thumbnails
ES day trading Journal-mon30.png  

Last edited by jzw22; April 30th, 2012 at 03:43 AM.
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  #27 (permalink)
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33 contracts 5 pts.

Very narrow range 7.25 in rth. Over traded today. Need to be much more patient on choppy days and possibly just stop trading as the risk/reward is just not there.

Started day well, shorted under opening bear trend bar because thought push away from 97 & hvn might mark high for day. Covered after PMI but then when market traded down to 91 started trying for a reversal and lost money in the chop. Only other opportunity was into the close where I was long but ended up getting stopped out of my long on a spike down.

Made 3 mistakes
  • Forgot PMI figures released 3 mins earlier to subscribers 9.42. Was lucky because I was short at the time.
  • Once the market started forming a range 91-93.50 should have just stepped aside. Was trying to buy low of range but with better support 88/90 was unclear where my stop should be.
  • Near the close pulled stop up to 1 tick under recent low. I had a limit order get filled which left me 2 contracts long but then did not adjust the stop down quickly enough and a few seconds later a spike down hit my stop and bounced back I was now short 1 contract with an instant 1 point loss.

Bias none - will watch yest rth high & low (90 97) and stay away from the middle chopfest.

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  #28 (permalink)
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15 cts -19 points.

Well it had to happen after a good run. Nearly always lose money on days when there is a big reversal because I like to buy pullbacks. Trying for the pullback was fine since I was patient and waited for a deeper move but the size of the loss was the real problem. Once market got under 06 did accelerate to downside.

Although opened my long before 3pm I forgot the number 1 rule of trading ES in afternoon which is to never trade counter-trend in the last half hour. The trend moves into the close can kill you.

Possible that the move to 12 was a high volume climax. Trading at 97 now in globex so still holding some of yesterdays gains.

No bias
Will watch 90/2 and 1400 for directions.

06 res
00
90/2

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  #29 (permalink)
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No trades. (Was away at US open). Having missed the reversal trade did not want to buy the subsequent pullbacks although they were reasonable trades.

Bears have reversed all of Tuesdays spike up but could not push through 88/90 and bulls pushed market up to 1400 by close maintaining pattern of HLs after 89 low yesterday.

Rangebound in European session 96-00 but difficult to be bearish under 96 since hvn just a bit lower. Right now market testing 00.

Bias long above 93

1175 rally high
0475 H globex
9950 H rth - DT
93/95 hvn and string of HLs
8925 L
88/90 key support zone

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  #30 (permalink)
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Fri


Review Thurs
3 trades 30 contracts +22 pts

profittable day but could easily have been a big loss because I let a trade run against me and waited for a bounce to come.

Number of mistakes today
  • Ignored signs of weakness early on. Unemployment figures caused a pop to 1402 but this was reversed quickly. Also opened back inside yest range. Should have exitted my long position here at b/e. Instead continued to hold thinking that trading at 98/9 was a sign of strength. But should have remembered Mark Fisher's - Good News Bad Action saying
  • Poor ISM figures and market sells off - should immediately have dumped position for a loss at 95 but waited for a bounce. Let the market run to 91 and then got very lucky and the market made a V reversal and I exitted at 95, which seemed like a really good price now after it had been at 91!
  • Immediately went short a full position at 95 but the logical place for a stop is over the pre-news level at 98 so realistically I had to hold my short thru 3 points (which I did although it was very close). Should have scaled into shorts given the wide resistance band or got out at 96 and looked to re-enter at a better price.
  • On final long should had dumped whole postion into res rather than leaving 1 ct for a possible break higher. Lost 2 points by not taking profits

After this got it together traded decline into 85 and bounce back to 90 well and finished day in green.

Fri plan - NFP
Market testing lower in Europe likely to reamain weak until NFP. After that anything could happen. European holiday on Monday so probably only trade until Europe close as likely to be thin & choppy after.

If NFP is poor could see a more a big down day since I don't think most longs from above the b/o level @ 90 have liqudated their positions yet.

Bias none - but long over 90.

99/00 H 99.25 - Weds & Thurs highs here possible short squeeze above
90 - immediate level for bulls to recover
77/80 - first obvious support level and post-AAPL results level

Attached Thumbnails
ES day trading Journal-fri4.png  

Last edited by jzw22; May 4th, 2012 at 06:34 AM. Reason: typo
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