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ES day trading Journal
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ES day trading Journal

  #11 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
London, UK
 
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Thursday review

Trend day - opened at a neutral price but straight up into resistance at 73. Formed a small range then broke higher and closed on the highs.

Profitable day for me but should have been a home run. I already knew that 73 would be key and bears were likely to be roadkill above it. After the strong first 15 mins, it I had a feeling that it could be a trend day and I should have traded much more aggressively. Basically buying in the consolidation, adding on the climb and any pullback and holding at least a partial position into the close. Since trend days frequently close at the extreme.

So despite knowing how I should trade it, I wasn't really aggressive and scaled out on the climb. At least I knew better than to look for shorts.

I think part of the problem was because it opened at a neutral price I was in a watching/passive mindset and I didn't switch quickly enough to a trading mindset. So when I did start trading I was cautious and on trend days once the train leaves the station all you can do it wave it goodbye.

Friday - market proved quite weak dropping back under the 74 break-out level. This has probably surprised the bulls especially as we got over 86 in globex. Euro seems weak today as well.

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  #12 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Friday review

After Thursdays trend day up, Friday was a trend day down closing pretty much on its lows and reversing all of Thursdays gains. Thursdays opening RTH print turned out to be the high of the day and the first two 5min bars of the day were trend bars down that certainly suggested selling pressure. The simplest trade was the short @ retest of 76. I was still reading this as a p/b so I was buying around 70 exitting into the bounce to 74. I didn't trade the afternoon although the 4+ hour 3 point range did suggest that a breakout might happen. I was thinking a long b/o but instead the opposite happened.

Fridays weak close would suggest further downside on Monday but that looks like it has already played out in globex. Looks like we will opening 72-4 so probably just under resistance. Potentially we have put in a HL @ 60. No bias at open but bullish if we can get over 77 and hold 74 on any p/b. Holding over 70 is bullish bigger picture and a move back to 94-6 seems possible to me.

94/6
86
74/5
63
60
52.50

I'm going to switch the a 24H chart for a bit because I feel that I'm missing out by ignoring what is happening in globex some days. I know that others like Al Brooks seems to stick to RTH charts but to me it seems like the activity in globex is relevant. I will monitor how this goes.

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  #13 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Mon review


Market respected levels with rth high at 75.25 and low 60.75. Opened under resistance and after a quick test traded straight down. I always find it difficult to trade trends off the open and just sat this one out until market approached 63 where I started buying exitting on bounce into 66. Nearer midday got long again as market consolidated under 66 and caught the move up to 72.

Traded much heavier 81 cts for a net 41 points.

Levels (no change from yesterday)
94/6
86
74/5
66/7
60/3 <- major support zone now
52.50

Sometimes trading can be simple. Traded European open which offered a ridiculously simple pullback trade after the strong trend up off the open. Nice thing was I only took 1 tick heat and once it moved in my direction went straight to my target without a p/b. I should really have had more size on.

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  #14 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Weds

7 trades 34 contracts Net 64.75 points - my best day since October

Tues was a trend day in fact there was a trend from the open in Europe and then US session needed a little push down before buyers came in and the trend continued. For once, I actually made money on a trend day and did not fight it.

Made one trade in globex shown on previous post. Again the trend from the open left without me one it although I did at least consider getting long at 60. In US session basically always looking for reasons to buy

Things did well
  • recognised it as a trend day and ,traded with aggressive long bias
  • Bailed from first long trade @75 after minor LH and got concerned that market might need to p/b
  • Got long in 75's after poke under 74 reversed. Bit slow in getting long but was well positioned for breakout.

Things did badly
  • Big problem was should have seen that the first consolidation 78/79 was tight and did not retest the b/o level this is an obvious sign of strength and coupled with a strong trend meant I should have been adding to my trade.

Plan Weds
Tues weak close meant it was not a true trend day. Also bears held prior globex highs at 89. However these are minor points and bulls have advantage as long as market holds above 75. Weak European globex session.

Bias - cautiously long (since Europe has been weak and we've lost 82)

89 res
86/87 hvn
82/83
78/79 supp
7650 b/o level
75/76
7175 rth low
60/63 <- HL on 60min chart major support
5250 low

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ES day trading Journal-weds2.png  

Last edited by jzw22; April 18th, 2012 at 10:05 AM. Reason: missed pic
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  #15 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Weds results 8 trades 41 cts net -2.25

Inside day, narrow range (7.75) holding 78/9 as support and 85/6 as res. weak close.

Good
  • plan was spot on
  • kept individual losses small.
  • took a break when I got frustrated by getting chopped up around 82. Came back for last hour in better frame of mind and finished the day with a good short which significantly reduced my loss and could have turned the day green if I had held it a bit longer.

Bad
  • did not consider that day might be narrow range and so should play for tighter targets
  • should have realised after midday that market had traded in a 6pt range and therfore the middle of the range ~82 was not a place to look for trades.
  • in globex took a trade off 82 supp, after it had already been tested twice - should not trust levels after 2 tests as they get lower probability after each test.
  • should have maintained a bullish bias after loss of 82 but started thinking more bearish. After a 30pt up it takes more that an 8pt retrace to turn the trend. Should have just kept fishing for the low.
  • Was short duing the afternoon push into 79 but did not take profits once the market bounced back over 80. At the time I was thinking that the market looked like a buy but as I was short, I just held on hoping for a break of supp.

No change in levels

Bias - cautiously long (since Europe testing 88 res)

94/6 - pre NFP level
89 res
82/3 hvn (middle of rotational day)
78/79 supp
7650 b/o level
75/76
7175 rth low
60/63 <- HL on 60min chart major support
5250 low

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ES day trading Journal-thurs2.png   ES day trading Journal-thurs3.png  
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  #16 (permalink)
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Thurs 14 trades, 77 cts net 0 pts

Difficult day to predict, 5min chart made little sense to me. Despite getting to 90 in globex
bulls gave up Tues trend day and fell to a capitulation low before rallying almost 10 pts into close

Good
  • made solid long trades off opening low and 74 low
  • knew that possibility of a flush existed if market kept sliding lower after lunch

Bad
  • kept watching market bounce off 78/9 in globex without making a trade
  • after lunch starting imaging a 3rd push / wedge pattern if 72 lost
  • decided to trade for a wedge ignoring my concerns for a possible acceleration down and duly lost money
  • willing to take on more risk in afternoon because of profits made in morning. However it was a much lower probability trade and did not justify the risk

Lessons
  • downtrends often end in capitulation and c/t trade better after that.
  • Been too quick to see wedges - need to balance risks more carefully
  • don't look for 3rd push/ wedge patterns if important support is broken better to wait for the flush

Plan for Friday
Bias none.

Wide trading range between 60 and 88/90. Middle of range difficult to read and should probably stick to scalps until clearer. Market stronger in European session will watch 76/8 for clues. Might get a quiet range bound Friday.

94/6
88/90
8650 h
78 top of lunch consolidation
76 hvn
6550 l
60/3 <- major supp
5250 low of decline

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  #17 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Quick update on week

For Friday

10 trades 33 cts net 4.25 points

For week

contracts wins = 71, losses = 40, b/e = 158
points win = 212.75, losses = -97.25, b/e = -7.75

269 cts net ES 107.25 points

(b/e is a gain or loss of 1pt or less)

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  #18 (permalink)
stonecutter
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Hi jzw22

Nice journal. i particularly like the look of your charts.

Couple questions....

1) How long have you been trading, as your summary and analysis is quite inciteful and
2) are you trading live or sim.

thanks and keep up the good work.
-Mike

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  #19 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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catdriver View Post
Hi jzw22

Nice journal. i particularly like the look of your charts.

Couple questions....

1) How long have you been trading, as your summary and analysis is quite inciteful and
2) are you trading live or sim.

thanks and keep up the good work.
-Mike

Thanks for stopping by.

I opened my futures account in 2008 and I dabbled a bit. In 2010 I decided that I either needed to take it seriously or stop wasting my time. It was then that I really tried to focus in on intraday ES trading. Don Miller and Linda Raschke are the biggest influences on my trading, but I've never attended any courses or had a mentor.

All these trades are live. So yes - the 107 points I made this week is real $. But before you start thinking that I know what I'm doing, this week had my best day of the year in it and it was an outlier day. Also you'll see that pretty much every day I did at least one stupid thing and often a whole roomful of stupid things.

Also in March I had a mini-slump and my reason for starting a journal on futures.io (formerly BMT) was to try and shake myself out of it.

J

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  #20 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Trading range 59/60 - 88/90. No point in trying to guess which way it will break. Must consider that will just keep probing the boundaries and frustrating both sides for some time.

Apple results Tuesday & Fed statement and press conf on Wednesday, likely to be choppy and rangebound until then, unless there is a rumour of more QE.

Stepping back S&P closed on its 50ma so pretty neutral price.

Bearish
- still under 20ma
- earnings not a catalyst for higher
- Nasdaq / Apple looking weaker
- worked off oversold condition by going sideways / up rather than a nice pop back to highs
- European debt saga continues
- seasonality

Bullish
- falling vix & dollar
- 10 days since spike low at 52 and unable to retest

88/90 range high
8650 H thurs
8325 H
7650 h from closing range
7350 L
70/71 first real sign of weakness will be trading under here.
67/68
6550 L thurs
59/60 range low
5250

Friday had a weak afternoon and formed a closing range 7350 to 7650. But we've already pushed down from this in globex. Possibly look for shorts if we get back to this range.

Bias short but market has been bouncy off these lower prices.

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Last edited by jzw22; April 23rd, 2012 at 04:44 AM. Reason: typo
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