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the art of leverage as i see it


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the art of leverage as i see it

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  #1 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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I am taking Big Mikes suggestion of starting a thread -

it will be based on 2 things

1- will monitor a sim leverage trade to the extreme on both gain and loss sides

2- will continue my agreed competition with bh -on his quest for 20k from 1 k

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  #3 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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this is for cme -reguarding leverage -test this on a sim that does not shut down over night-
why leverage kills all traders using multiple contracts-time posted 8:43est
using the june contracts -
go short 1 contract at 1356.50-

now allow the trade to run against you on purpose for at least


@ 1364.50 add 8 contract (ave = 1363.61)using 9 contracts

@ 1372.50 add 72 contracts (ave =71.51)using 81 contracts

@ 1380.50 add 648 contracts (ave =79.50)using 729 contracts

@ 1388.50 add 5832 contracts (ave =87.50)using 6561 contracts

so you see why leverage kills imagine 6561 contracts @ 1387.50 -every point is a 328k move

i believe this is the same principal as the grains of rice story from the nile valley

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  #4 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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you saw in yesturdays action -
we had our 1 contract short from 1356.50 go against us as planned
we then added 8 at 1364.50 -
we now have 9 contracts short from our 1363.61 ave
we took approx 5 points of heat or 2250 dollars of mental pressure
you saw in yesturdays action a p/b to the 1363 support line ,
which at that time we could have reduced our position by 8 contracts -
leaving 1 contract short from 1364.50 -

i decided not to reduce-so will maintain all 9 from the 1363.61 ave -

at the weeks close we are in the red approx 1350.00 dollars

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  #5 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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no change in the leverage trade -

dh challenge added 2 long trades for 6 ticks each off the afternoon channel action -+150

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  #6 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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@ 1372.50 add 72 contracts (ave =71.51)using 81 contracts


our over night action -added our next leg in - i am always impressed at how the market came to breakeven on our trade and proceeded up

this is the second time in 2 entries we could have reduced at or near breakeven to restart the system -

time will tell if we get 1 more entry

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  #7 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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as we near our next entry

@ 1380.50 add 648 contracts (ave =79.50)using 729 contracts


this entry will be layered in

1381.00==81 contracts

1380.75 == 81 contracts

1380.50== 324 contracts

1380.25== 81 contracts

1380.00==81 contracts

the total add is still 1380.50 initial ave buy in

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  #8 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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@ 1388.50 add 5832 contracts (ave =87.50)using 6561 contracts


we are officially all in on this trade @ 1387.50 ave

at the close we were 1,300,000 in the red-

again at the ave in point we could have reduced for a 1 tick profit on the reduction -

if this trade were to come to the 85.50 area over night i would be inclined to reduce at that area and add higher up on the short


2 -
6 tick loses on the dh challenge in the chop zones ---150

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  #9 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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we see on the sim trade -

every called out level has now become s/r - how can that be -

the market gave us the chance to reduce and start over 4 times -

but the wanting to be correct is what kills traders accounts

remember every 3 point advance is a million dollar red move -

which greatly reduces our risk reward ratio-

greed and leverage are spelled the same

thus far we have been 2 million in the red

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  #10 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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well since march 8th -we have seen our first good glimpse of daylight -

had 3 points today positive in our favor -with the hit of 1384.50 ,i was looking to reduce at 1385.50
but did not -

was up approx 984k

closed down 410k

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  #11 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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the pressure today is tremendous -i mean what i am putting on myself ,
my wife says get out -as my tos charts are down -and i have no backup-
may have to trademark my creekboy sweat towels -
going for a walk around the block
i cant remember when the last time i had a headache this bad

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  #12 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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the rice game is getting the best of me -if i only is my quote of the day -

on looking back now -if i only reduced at the first pullback and started over ,i would feel better-


@ 1364.50 add 8 contract (ave = 1363.61)using 9 contracts

@ 1372.50 add 72 contracts (ave =71.51)using 81 contracts

@ 1380.50 add 648 contracts (ave =79.50)using 729 contracts

@ 1388.50 add 5832 contracts (ave =87.50)using 6561 contracts -

i could have started over at 1364.50 as my first entry

and @ 1396.50 i could have added the big load with a 1395.50 ave -


but sweat as i may -heat thus far 4.6mil--reward greatly reduced at this point -

will pray for a 32 point p/b from the top for and exit x2

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  #13 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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still feeling the pressure -may see the light of day again

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  #14 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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this trade is getting longer and longer -

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  #15 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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another quiet day -spent the entire day listening for a crack in the armor

heat index reached 7,053,075-

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  #16 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
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Martingale Betting Systems (from Wikipedia):

Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th century France.

The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Since a gambler with infinite wealth will, almost surely, eventually flip heads, the Martingale betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who advocated it.

Of course, none of the gamblers in fact possessed infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets would eventually bankrupt those who chose to use the Martingale. It is therefore a good example of a Taleb distribution - the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy. However, the gambler's expected value does indeed remain zero because the small probability that he will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with his expected gain. It is widely believed that casinos instituted betting limits specifically to stop Martingale players, but in reality the assumptions behind the strategy are unsound.

Players using the Martingale system do not have any long-term mathematical advantage over any other betting system or even randomly placed bets.


This website has a nice simulator:

The Martingale system of betting

You just need to press the button.

I further strongly suggest to read the book "The Black Swan" by Nicolas Nassim Taleb, which actually shows that improbable events such as a huge loss will usually arrive earlier than expected.


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 creekboy 
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i thankyou for your comments fat tails - long term swing trades have a different art of leverage - will check back in friday

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 creekboy 
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friday we exited our short at 1382.25 ave -used the 1395.50 zone with the 9+5 =14 pullback for our exit zone -
took 1.6 mil profit -

started new reversal leg -using 1387.50 as our starting point -

1 con @ 1387.50
8 con @ 1395.50 (total 9 @ 1394.61 ave)
72 con @ 1403.50 ( total 81 @ 1402.71 ave)
648con @ 1411.50 (total 729 @ 1410.52 ave)
5832 con @ 1419.50(total 6561 @ 1418.50 ave)


as you can see all ave in points have allowed for a restart of the process

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 Fat Tails 
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creekboy View Post
friday we exited our short at 1382.25 ave -used the 1395.50 zone with the 9+5 =14 pullback for our exit zone -
took 1.6 mil profit -

started new reversal leg -using 1387.50 as our starting point -

1 con @ 1387.50
8 con @ 1395.50 (total 9 @ 1394.61 ave)
72 con @ 1403.50 ( total 81 @ 1402.71 ave)
648con @ 1411.50 (total 729 @ 1410.52 ave)
5832 con @ 1419.50(total 6561 @ 1418.50 ave)


as you can see all ave in points have allowed for a restart of the process

It is a bit childish. You will not get filled on 5832 contracts, and nobody will let you trade 460 million US-$ on margin. Don't hesitate to ban me, if you want to continue without my comments.


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  #20 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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fat tail -dont be upset that the pattern worked - i called the be short under 1395.50 -we hit 1395.25 and it fell - its no big deal - its a different ball game scaling out of big lots -if you read back you will see how they are scaled into also - please dont be upset -as you dont even know how this is being done -what if this is being accomplished through 6 different accounts and this is the accumlative effort-please keep watch on this -also what would you feel would be a nice profit on this system?
also what do you feel acceptable risk is for trades of this size?
p.s-i believe in free press -you will not be banned by me -i see your positive signs under your name -just be fair and dont bully me-thats all i ask-good luck in your trading

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 Fat Tails 
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creekboy View Post
fat tail -dont be upset that the pattern worked - i called the be short under 1395.50 -we hit 1395.25 and it fell - its no big deal - its a different ball game scaling out of big lots -if you read back you will see how they are scaled into also - please dont be upset -as you dont even know how this is being done -what if this is being accomplished through 6 different accounts and this is the accumlative effort-please keep watch on this -also what would you feel would be a nice profit on this system?
also what do you feel acceptable risk is for trades of this size?
p.s-i believe in free press -you will not be banned by me -i see your positive signs under your name -just be fair and dont bully me-thats all i ask-good luck in your trading

These guys used a similar strategy as yours. They are both famous now.

Nick Leeson - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jérôme Kerviel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Can I be more explicit?

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  #22 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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fat tail - as you saw in the overnight action -i called my next entry too close at 1419.50 -with the overnight high being 1419.75 -

got a few scrapes added to the short do to overnight light volume -

ave is 1413.33 -have reduced for 2 points on all but 81 of 1129 cons- about 100k profit -now the action right now is has changed my pattern


81 con @ 1413.25 ave
adding 648 con @ 1421.25 ave approx 1420.25(729con)
adding 5832 con @ 1429.25 ave approx 1428.25(6561con)


again sorry for calling the overnight high so surgically

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  #23 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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flattened all 81 shorts @ 1395 for now to see what sets up 79k profit

but the big stupid was the 1048 shorts i dumped at 2 points -if i would have let them run it would have been 800k at the same level -but there are always more trades coming-

flat for now

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 creekboy 
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long setup -

1-con @ 98.75
5-added @ 87.25( total 6)
30 added @ 81.50(total 36)
180 added @ 76 (total 216)

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  #25 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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trade hooked quicker than expected- had 1388.16 ave on 6 cons -will exit at 1398.75 for 10.5 points or darn close and try for another setup

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  #26 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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decided to short 1407.75 with no add-ins at this time

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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

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  #28 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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big Dawg -here is my best response-

A- 1-seeing the evil that is inside of all of us when it comes to wanting to be correct-

2-long term affect of posting calls in adavance for good quality moves

3-that there are more than 1 way to catch a fox -its not 1 way that works for all

4-systems of the past that have succeeded or failed can be more atributed to successful or poor timing

5-happy to find this site to do this

B- 1- not enough constructive verbage from others

2- my serious lack of computer knowledge -when it come to posting screen shots

3- my lack of interest in putting the time in to learn these things

4/5 unknown at this time

C- no -tried on another site in the past -and was up over 200% in just a few weeks and the post was disrupted
by a jackle -

D- i plan to continue -as with several different trading styles that i use -the calls can be quite different each 20 day period or so

E- FEAR of public failure is the #1 reason why most dont in my opinion -and thats the #1 reason they should -a journal forces you to slow down -just check the grammer and punctuation in this journal and you can see i suck at english -heck i am typing with 1 finger for goodness sake -you have no idea how many words my wife helped me spill fir dis pust --also as we near the birthday of the the worlds best trading teacher - Mr Loof Lirpa from germany -who has taught me more than anyone else about the trading world -happy birthday tommorrow -i use your spirit in every trade i call

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  #29 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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decided to short 1407.75 with no add-ins at this time

will reduce @ 1398.50 area

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  #30 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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flat on trade -trailer hit 1403

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  #31 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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short sitting @ 1411.25 -no add-ons

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 creekboy 
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from the 1411.25 short the 1416 area is a good place to leverage up -remember you need to build 1 con per point for con traded -thus if 1 con was traded at 1411.25 you will need to add 5 at the 1416 level -

1 con @ 1411.25

5 con @ 1415.75

6 con total with a 1415 ave for the short

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  #33 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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thus when 1415 is hit you can leverage back down giving you 1 at 1415.75 -

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  #34 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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we will reduce by 1/2 at the first hit of 1411.75

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 creekboy 
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trade has been reduced by 1/2 - will let the last 1/2 run and see what happens - took approx 30 ticks of total profit from 3 contracts -will use the 30 ticks as stop protection for a break even trade -

thus if we go 10 ticks above our 2nd entry of 1415.75 we will exit the trade(1418.25)

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  #36 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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we are using a standard fib set from 1417.75 to 1390 - we used 1412 as our 1/2 off basis for protection -now as we near the 1407.50 fib -any where in this area is a good 1 con exit - we used 1408.75 giving us 7 points of profit on 1 contract from our 1415.75 entry - next exit zone will be 1401 -but we will also reset our stop to breakeven at 1415.75 for the final 2 cons

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  #37 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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i often review my trades and will look at exiting a con @ 1404.50 and adding it back in the 1408.25 area -at a new ave 1412 -

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  #38 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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got taken out of the 5th contract @ 1402 for 13.75 points -have 1 contract remaining -still unsure if i will add a short at 1408.75 as it already reached up and hit that area

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  #39 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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have banked 28 points off 5 contracts thus far on this call

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  #40 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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will rethink our last exit when we sit at the 1406 area

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  #41 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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final exit will be 1394.25 area

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  #42 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

looking at a reversal play from 90.25 -will hold off for now on the 94.25 exit -the short call from 1408.75 was very close over night

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  #43 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

will stick to plan exit 94.25 -will review a long from 93 area

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  #44 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

flattened last con at 1395.75 for 20 points -to long a wait for the last 2 points -

overall 48 points banked -if we would have should have could have rode all 6 from 1415 to the final exit for 19 points each 114 would be the total for 18 points of risk

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  #45 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

always amazes me how if -1 would wait just 8 more min -how things work out -you can be profitable in any area near the target zone

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  #46 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

no more trades till next week - 1397.25 looks good from here for a trailer long -

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  #47 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

well we got to within 3 ticks of out 1397.25 target -

so after a month of leverage trades 1 thing should be sticking out like a sore thumb

TIMING -its everything when you leverage -

on giant size swing trades you need to be entering long before the move even comes into play

thus on a 1415.75 reversal point
here is how we doit

all levels @ 324 cons divided by 6 traders
1417.50
1417.25
1417.00
1416.75
1416.50
1416.25
1416.00
1415.75
1415.50
1415.25
1415.00
1414.75
1414.50
1414.25
1414.00
all traders enter there lots differently
some do single hits 54 times
some doubles 27 times and so on
this will be the final post on this thread -i hope it showed you dont need to only fire on the edge -but to also get out with profit when the gettin is good ---

good luck to all

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  #48 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

its been since april 4 th that we have last visited this trade -


timing 6000 contracts short

currently thanks to market conditions we are up 141 points per contract of the es


141 x 50 = $7050 profit per contract-

7050 x 6000 = 42.3 million dollars

i am looking to protect some profit now at the 67.50 area

all things are possible with a easy edge system--will update at some futher date

















creekboy View Post
well we got to within 3 ticks of out 1397.25 target -

so after a month of leverage trades 1 thing should be sticking out like a sore thumb

TIMING -its everything when you leverage -

on giant size swing trades you need to be entering long before the move even comes into play

thus on a 1415.75 reversal point
here is how we doit

all levels @ 324 cons divided by 6 traders
1417.50
1417.25
1417.00
1416.75
1416.50
1416.25
1416.00
1415.75
1415.50
1415.25
1415.00
1414.75
1414.50
1414.25
1414.00
all traders enter there lots differently
some do single hits 54 times
some doubles 27 times and so on
this will be the final post on this thread -i hope it showed you dont need to only fire on the edge -but to also get out with profit when the gettin is good ---

good luck to all


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  #49 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

i am looking to protect some profit now at the 67.50 area

the area in the text above was the 1267 area -remember we shorted 1415 down to 1267 -

i am now flat as of todays wonderful drag line through the 1402 to 1403 area -

we captured 135 points on 6000 contracts for 40.5 million dollars

but its the percentage % i am always most proud of 30 to 1 risk reward ratio as we had 225 dollars worth of risk at the base of the trade with a 6750 gain for a 3000% return on the risk -

we were very fortunate to have 2 great market turns to do this twice in a row -and what i mean be that is 3000% on the down side and 3000% on the upside

please be advised that this exit is by no means calling the top on this turn we have exited our position as hit hit our target objective

grand total for these trade in excess of 84 million dollars but the 3000% is what i am most proud of -

this is the final post on the thread -what a great day

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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