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the art of leverage as i see it
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the art of leverage as i see it

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
phl pa. usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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the pressure today is tremendous -i mean what i am putting on myself ,
my wife says get out -as my tos charts are down -and i have no backup-
may have to trademark my creekboy sweat towels -
going for a walk around the block
i cant remember when the last time i had a headache this bad

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  #12 (permalink)
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phl pa. usa
 
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the rice game is getting the best of me -if i only is my quote of the day -

on looking back now -if i only reduced at the first pullback and started over ,i would feel better-


@ 1364.50 add 8 contract (ave = 1363.61)using 9 contracts

@ 1372.50 add 72 contracts (ave =71.51)using 81 contracts

@ 1380.50 add 648 contracts (ave =79.50)using 729 contracts

@ 1388.50 add 5832 contracts (ave =87.50)using 6561 contracts -

i could have started over at 1364.50 as my first entry

and @ 1396.50 i could have added the big load with a 1395.50 ave -


but sweat as i may -heat thus far 4.6mil--reward greatly reduced at this point -

will pray for a 32 point p/b from the top for and exit x2

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  #13 (permalink)
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still feeling the pressure -may see the light of day again

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  #14 (permalink)
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this trade is getting longer and longer -

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  #15 (permalink)
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phl pa. usa
 
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another quiet day -spent the entire day listening for a crack in the armor

heat index reached 7,053,075-

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  #16 (permalink)
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You Selected One of the Safest Routes to Deplete Your Account

Martingale Betting Systems (from Wikipedia):

Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th century France.

The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Since a gambler with infinite wealth will, almost surely, eventually flip heads, the Martingale betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who advocated it.

Of course, none of the gamblers in fact possessed infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets would eventually bankrupt those who chose to use the Martingale. It is therefore a good example of a Taleb distribution - the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy. However, the gambler's expected value does indeed remain zero because the small probability that he will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with his expected gain. It is widely believed that casinos instituted betting limits specifically to stop Martingale players, but in reality the assumptions behind the strategy are unsound.

Players using the Martingale system do not have any long-term mathematical advantage over any other betting system or even randomly placed bets.


This website has a nice simulator:

The Martingale system of betting

You just need to press the button.

I further strongly suggest to read the book "The Black Swan" by Nicolas Nassim Taleb, which actually shows that improbable events such as a huge loss will usually arrive earlier than expected.



Last edited by Fat Tails; March 21st, 2012 at 06:23 PM.
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  #17 (permalink)
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i thankyou for your comments fat tails - long term swing trades have a different art of leverage - will check back in friday

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  #18 (permalink)
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friday we exited our short at 1382.25 ave -used the 1395.50 zone with the 9+5 =14 pullback for our exit zone -
took 1.6 mil profit -

started new reversal leg -using 1387.50 as our starting point -

1 con @ 1387.50
8 con @ 1395.50 (total 9 @ 1394.61 ave)
72 con @ 1403.50 ( total 81 @ 1402.71 ave)
648con @ 1411.50 (total 729 @ 1410.52 ave)
5832 con @ 1419.50(total 6561 @ 1418.50 ave)


as you can see all ave in points have allowed for a restart of the process

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  #19 (permalink)
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Fat Tails's Avatar
 
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creekboy View Post
friday we exited our short at 1382.25 ave -used the 1395.50 zone with the 9+5 =14 pullback for our exit zone -
took 1.6 mil profit -

started new reversal leg -using 1387.50 as our starting point -

1 con @ 1387.50
8 con @ 1395.50 (total 9 @ 1394.61 ave)
72 con @ 1403.50 ( total 81 @ 1402.71 ave)
648con @ 1411.50 (total 729 @ 1410.52 ave)
5832 con @ 1419.50(total 6561 @ 1418.50 ave)


as you can see all ave in points have allowed for a restart of the process

It is a bit childish. You will not get filled on 5832 contracts, and nobody will let you trade 460 million US-$ on margin. Don't hesitate to ban me, if you want to continue without my comments.


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  #20 (permalink)
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phl pa. usa
 
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Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
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fat tail -dont be upset that the pattern worked - i called the be short under 1395.50 -we hit 1395.25 and it fell - its no big deal - its a different ball game scaling out of big lots -if you read back you will see how they are scaled into also - please dont be upset -as you dont even know how this is being done -what if this is being accomplished through 6 different accounts and this is the accumlative effort-please keep watch on this -also what would you feel would be a nice profit on this system?
also what do you feel acceptable risk is for trades of this size?
p.s-i believe in free press -you will not be banned by me -i see your positive signs under your name -just be fair and dont bully me-thats all i ask-good luck in your trading

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