Day Trading Stocks with Discretion - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Day Trading Stocks with Discretion
Updated: Views / Replies:19,501 / 297
Created: by bijeremiad Attachments:384

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 384  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Day Trading Stocks with Discretion

  #291 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco, CA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
bijeremiad's Avatar
 
Posts: 410 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 283 given, 325 received

Losing streaks

Losing streaks. Another thing I struggled with was controlling my losing streaks. S-I-X-T-E-E-N consecutive losses. Highest on the win side was 4. This compelled me to see what the odds of seeing a 16-loss streak in 45 trades was (assuming 50/50). It lead me to something I never knew about: hexadeccanacci series. Sparing you the details, the odds are 1 in 4,900. So probably safe to assume I was titling the odds against me.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


One thing I was curious about the losing streak was if it was a result of breaking any rules, such as no more than 5 trades per day or no more than $80 of loss per day (two full stops). On 6 or 15% of my trading days I did exceed my max number of trades (highlighted in yellow), but only 1 of those was a losing day (1 kind of breakeven day). I did exceed my max daily loss limit, but this was driven by slippage rather than me not honoring stops.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
 
  #292 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco, CA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
bijeremiad's Avatar
 
Posts: 410 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 283 given, 325 received

Trade Set Ups

Trade set ups. I collected more data this time around. Among that data was set up information. Here are the long/shorts for trades that were pullbacks, complex pullbacks, failed breakouts, tests, breakouts, first pullback after breakout, pressers, flips (closing and opening a position at the same time) , and “gut” trades. Pressers were trades that I tried to add to a trade that appeared to be working out. Gut trades are just as they sound – no real set up, just “looks” like it will work.
  • Pullbacks worked, both long and short. The win rates are better, the W/L ratio is better.
  • Complex pullbacks I struggled with, and oddly didn’t see on the short side. Not a lot of numbers here, so tough to draw too many conclusions.
  • Failed breakouts were tough too, but also sparse.
  • Tests I got killed on the long side, probably trying to fish the bottom. On the short side I fared a little better, but probably flat given sparse data.
  • Breakouts were pretty flat, nothing exciting.
  • First pullback after breakout were terrible on the long side and pretty good on the short. Sparse data here too.
  • Pressers were disappointing. I would have hoped for better results when a trade appeared to be going my way.
  • FLIPS were not surprising. They seem like the only logical thing to do at the time, but rarely feel right in retrospect.
  • GUT trades always “feel” right. Not much edge in the numbers.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
 
  #293 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco, CA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
bijeremiad's Avatar
 
Posts: 410 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 283 given, 325 received

10,000 views


Crossed 10,000 views today on the journal. Thanks for looking. 91% of the journals don't make it this far - over half of those are inactive (as was I for a while). How do you tell the difference between determined and stubborn?


Last edited by bijeremiad; February 7th, 2014 at 09:47 PM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #294 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco, CA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
bijeremiad's Avatar
 
Posts: 410 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 283 given, 325 received

Type of mistake. Another piece of data that I kept track of was mistakes made during trades. I classified those mistakes into 5 buckets
1. Directional (35%), thought the market was going up/down but instead it went down/up.
2. Entry error (11%), something was off on the entry: I got in too late which pulled my stop higher, or I chased the entry too much, or I hesitated too much, but if my entry had been better, the trade would have eventually gone my way or presented a better opportunity.
3. Stop Error (8%), stop too tight, or not wide enough to incorporate the latest swing low (can be tough to distinguish #2 from #3), or moved the stop too soon.
4. Execution error (28%), didn’t let a winner run, or didn’t break even when the market gave me a chance. Somewhat of a catch-all category where something could have gone better.
5. Trade error (9%) bought when I meant to sell and vice versa. Or bought too many shares. Or bought the wrong instrument. Or put in a limit order when I needed a stop loss.

That leaves 9% of my trades that I was totally happy with given the circumstances.

Here are the P&L impact of each of those groups. Over time I hope to see the directional errors decline.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Always frustrating to see the impact of those trading errors - $26 an error. They seem so avoidable.

Reply With Quote
 
  #295 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco, CA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
bijeremiad's Avatar
 
Posts: 410 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 283 given, 325 received

Trend environment

I also kept track of my assessment of the market when I placed my trade, whether it was trending or in a trading range (and whether my trade was in the direction of the trend or counter). Not too many surprises: with trend was my “best“ collection of trades, really got chopped up in the trading range, and counter trend has “room for improvement”.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
 
  #296 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco, CA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
bijeremiad's Avatar
 
Posts: 410 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 283 given, 325 received

Should I set profit targets? One question I was interested in was to see how I would have fared with a price target – rather than holding onto my winners for an undetermined amount of time and profit. The Chart below shows what my P&L would have been had I exited all my winners at a predetermined profit target – including the ones where price went my way, but I let retrace a bit too much.

Fitting a curve line to those scenarios, I get an equation. The first derivative (solved for zero or just eyeball it) shows the local maximum of the curve to be about $120. But practically a $105 and $145 yield better “results”.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


In both cases, my winning percentage increases a percentage point or four and my average win declines $3 to $9, contributing to a higher overall result. If I were to split my targets into 1 at $100 and the other discretionary, that might be interesting.

When I lower my hypothetical price target to 1R or $40, I get a win rate of 49%, but I lose my big winners.

One other thing that this analysis does is group all trade entries together. It might make more sense to have larger targets for with-trend trades and smaller targets for counter-trend and trading-range trades.

Reply With Quote
 
  #297 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco, CA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
bijeremiad's Avatar
 
Posts: 410 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 283 given, 325 received

I am going to put up this last chart without much commentary. I put it together, so it might as well be here.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to bijeremiad for this post:
 
  #298 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco, CA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
bijeremiad's Avatar
 
Posts: 410 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 283 given, 325 received

I haven't been idle from a trading perspective over the last month. I have been "post-it" trading - keeping a screen in the corner of my eye and jotting down entries, targets, fills, and exits on a post-it. I will put together an analysis of those 83 trades over 19 trading days. Maybe tonight. Hopefully this week.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Day Trading Stocks with Discretion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Real-time intra-day data feed for TSX stocks?? Calgarybabybear Reviews of Brokers and Data Feeds 3 March 15th, 2015 11:09 AM
One Way to Beat the Market: Own Stocks Just for One Day Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 January 2nd, 2011 07:50 PM
Trading competition- 7% a day? lokgotkent Traders Hideout 5 October 18th, 2010 10:21 PM
Time of day trading TomBear The Elite Circle 5 September 8th, 2009 08:16 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:30 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-16 in 2.98 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.160.245.121