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Day Trading Stocks with Discretion
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Day Trading Stocks with Discretion

  #111 (permalink)
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Watching VFC real time, August 7, 2012

2 losers, -$80.

Day started off with a very strong opening, pushing through the significant resistant level of $151 in the first 3 minutes, and then closing the gap to $153, which I have been waiting for all week in the next 15 minutes. Wasn't on my screen to even see it happen. Don't know if I would have caught it that early in the session even if I had been.

I should have taken the long at the close of 7:03 after the second failed push for $153, but I was torn between looking for a strong trend day or a spike and channel day. After watching the market grind higher for a half hour, I took a pretty lousy entry at 7:33, assuming that the spike would be followed with a gradual upward sloping channel. That thesis should have been invalidated around 7:52.

But Trade 2 was still playing off the strong bullish sentiment, looking for a test of $153 as support. Instead I got my channel, but downward sloping. I was expecting something like a complex correction upward, given the early strength.

If I had caught the down channel, I suspect my entry would have been between 9:30 and 9:45, as price broke down through $153. I probably would have bailed on the trade at $152, rather than hold through the close. The spike and channel looked text book on the 30 min chart. It looked a little off on the 3 min chart, at least the spike part did.

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  #112 (permalink)
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Watching VFC real time, August 8, 2012

2 losers, net -$40

Very tight trading range. Almost $0.50 vs an median day of $2.

Trade 1 was taken after what looked like 3 lower highs. Managed to eek out at BE.

Trade 2 was a trap. The lows kept on creeping up, and I thought I had a breakout coming. Stopped out quickly.

Stayed out for the rest of the day, which was the best trade.

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Last edited by bijeremiad; August 14th, 2012 at 01:24 AM. Reason: attachment
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  #113 (permalink)
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Watching VFC in real time, August 9, 2012


3 winners, 2 losers. Net $130.

Trade 1 was taken after a failed push up after the low of the day at that point and a lower high. Took some heat, but came out. As price approached a level with various support points, I jammed my stop in as profits came closer to $1.

Trade 2 should have been my last trade. I saw the strong reversal bar from 7:48-7:54. After a higher low was put in at 8:06 I was long the break out above the high of 8:09. I should have taken more comfort in price taking out the previous highs at 8:33, but as priced pushed through the 21 EMA, I jammed my stop in for an exit.

Then when price failed to take out the high again, I went short and was taken out shortly in Trade 3.

Fortunately, I eventually recognized this as a complex correction and got back into Trade 2 again. After eight bars tried to push through $149, I bailed just shy of that resistance level - leaving about 1R on the table.

Trade 5 was a little aggressive - no broken trend line, no second test. Just sense that we were range bound and not going anywhere. Ended getting out at BE.

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  #114 (permalink)
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Watching VFC real time, August 10, 2012

2 losers, net -$80.

If I have to take a day of two full stops, I guess this is the way to go.

Trade 1 was after three lower highs (although not a lower low just prior). This looked pretty good for a first pullback after breakout. But stopped out. I was hesitant to take the lower high at 7:42 because I was missing the lower low.

Trade 2 was a push off the 21 EMA. Now it was the fourth, but it was a fairly strong down day. Stopped out.

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  #115 (permalink)
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Equity curve, as of August 10

Week ended down -$20, killed the positive week streak.

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  #116 (permalink)
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Watching VFC in real time, August 13, 2012

2 losers, net -$80.

Tough day to stop out twice, since it had such a nice upward sloping trend for 4 hours.

Trade 1 I got in after price bounced off the 21 EMA and looked to be breaking higher, but got stopped out the next bar with a quick swing.

Trade 2 looked like I was trading off a lower high, and I felt really smart for about 60 seconds as price went through the low of the prior bar, but then snapped back up, which should have been concerning. As price failed to push lower for the next 4 bars, I debated flipping my position, but I was already two bad trades in. Spent the rest of the day watching the easy slope up. Ugh.

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  #117 (permalink)
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Watching VFC in real time, August 14, 2012

2 losers, net -$80.

So recently, I have been frustrated by having two bad trades close together and then missing what seemed to be easy set ups later in the day. So I decided to wait a little longer after my first trade. Turns out, I just am not mentally ready to catch those set ups.

Trade 1 looked like a bullback after breaking out above $150.25. Turns out, $150 was the more relevant level.

Trade 2 looked like it could be a pullback. In retrospect, it was deep. The run up was $1.50, and the pullback was $1.00, so 66% retracement. I bought just before the expected breakout above $151 - never happened.

I did hesitate at key points during the day, which I marked with purple boxes:

Hesitation 1 was a breakout above $150.25, or a failed breakout of $150. Would have been a great 6R trade.

Hesitation 2 was a breakout above $151. Would have been a 1R trade.

Hesitation 3 was a short after testing $151.50 for the second time. But it was countertrend, and the trend had been strong for two days now. Would have been a 4-20R trade depending on how I trailed stops.

Hesitation 4 was a complex pullback set up for a long. Not great, would have been a full stop loss. Trend line from last two days already broken (blue dash line), the pullback was already deep (as a % of push up) and large (absolute $ amount).

Hesitation 5 was a short on pullback to the EMA21. Would have been a 3R trade.

So great market day for trading, just wasn't there myself.

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  #118 (permalink)
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bijeremiad View Post
2 losers.

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@bijeremiad
You have a good set-up chart but I think you have to learn more how to read it
-- just look at your volume panel and how correlates with the price
observe & learn
D

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  #119 (permalink)
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dario1 View Post
@bijeremiad
You have a good set-up chart but I think you have to learn more how to read it
-- just look at your volume panel and how correlates with the price
observe & learn
D

@dario1, which volume bars standout to you? I did react to volume at 10:39, but turned out that the spike in volume was 1 tick with 5000 shares.

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  #120 (permalink)
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Watching VFC in real time, August 15, 2012


1 winner, 2 losers. $40.

Another very flat day. Most of the day in a $0.60 range.

Trade 1 was a short off the 21EMA. After price bounced off a higher low at $149.20, I tapped out at break even. I don't know that I would have captured any of the $0.50 move right afterwards - it was pretty v-shaped and quick.

Trade 2 was a close above the EMA21 off some strong bars, but not much carry through. Exited at BE.

Trade 3 was after 7 bars of VFC trying to push below $149. I figured there would be some trapped traders with stops around $149.20. Not much follow through here either, but got a 1R trade.

I don't have purple boxes for my hesitations:

Hes1 short at 9:54, would have been good for 2R. I was worried about getting stuck in chop for hours. It would have been a 2 hour trade.

Hes2 long at 11:12 after failed push below $149. Might have been stopped out, might have been 2R trade. Was worried about a countertrend trade.

Hes3 short at 11:54. Would have stopped out. Didn't like how price kept pushing back above $149.

Hes4 short at 12:48. Was already late in the session. Might have been a 1R trade.

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