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Trade 1 was a break out trade, got in a little late after breaking through $139.90, got stopped out in about 5 minutes.
Trade 2 was a little more reasonable. Price had retraced to $140.50 and failed to break out. Again, a little late on the entry, but got out at BE after price failed to push through the support of $139.90 from the last trade.
Trade 3 Right idea, but a little early and stops too tight. Wasn't much trading opportunity after that. Whole lot of chop around $140.50.
Trade 1 Saw lower highs and took a short. Thought I had something when price pushed through $139.50. Was patient through the first pullback. Didn't move stop until price traded through $139.50 again. Price peeked through $139.50, and I really though we were off to the races, despite S&P rallying strong. Stopped out at BE.
Trade 2 Got in after the first pullback off $139.50. Saw price stall at resistance of $140.50 (relevant level from yesterday), so I jammed my stop in and got out with $120 profit, which would be a pretty good day, if I left it at that.
Trade 3 had me worried. I got back in at my exit price and saw price trade up even further. Then price got so high that the price was over $1 above the 21 EMA. it was at the top of the channel, and price had stalled there for about 2 minutes. So I jammed my stop again, and was sitting at $320 profit. A fantastic day.
Trade 4 was based on the idea that I had just seen a spike and would see a channel down. This was a countertrend trade, so I was aggressive with my stop, which left me BE. But I still thought I would see the channel down (drawn in purple on the chart).
Trade 5 was made as if I had never heard of a complex correction. I saw the lower high and thought I had the short. I was so sure that I put this trade on with real money. I was so sure, I even got in on a limit order, just a little early before price broke resistance, just for good measure. Didn't end well. Full stop loss.
The biggest error of the day was exiting on Trades 2/3. Trade 2 only cost me commission $2-4, no big deal. But my early exit cost me $200-300. I had a whole 33 minutes to get back in after my exit. Rather than seeing the strong trend, I spent my time looking for two shorts. If I typically lose $40 on a trade, $300 is enough to cover 7 full stops. That is 3 days worth of bad trades. A 7.5R mistake! I could trade without stops and not likely encounter an error that big. Goes to reiterate you can go broke taking a profit. Let 'em run. Its worth all the days i lose a few ticks on range-bound days.
Trade 1 Took a bounce off of a big support level from yesterday, which was a big day after earnings. I guess I was hoping it would be the bottom, but I should have treated it for what it was, a counter trend day and moved my stop accordingly.
Trade 2 and Trade 3. I got cockeyed in the chop. Lousy way to shut down a day. These quick reversals are useless I think. If its chop I kill my day with 2 losses, which ends my day. If it is not chop, then another opportunity will come along, wait 30 min. It won't kill me.
So today marks my second month of watching VFC real time. Attached is a graph showing my results for the 8 weeks.
Here are some summary statistics:
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Oddly, I only made $6 more than the previous 4 months. The mix of winners was different. I had that streak of losers at the beginning of this month, which dragged down the percentage, but that was also offset by the few larger win days, as evidenced by the winning day average of $188 vs $121 in the last period. Another change was to cut loses to just two full-stop trades. There were a few losing days in the first month where I had 3 full stop losses (see the average day loss of $68 this month vs $81 last month).
Last edited by bijeremiad; July 21st, 2012 at 04:52 PM.
Trade 1 was pretty late, after hesitating at 7:12 and 7:21. I wasn't watching my screen when the proper pullback happened around 7:51. The trade would have been good enough to carry me through the whole day without taking any heat, but I was getting nervous after the long run up, so I set a tighter stop and got hit.
Trade 2 was a pretty anxious short. After a strong move up and 2/3 of the way to a close gap fill, I take a short just minutes after price breaks the trend line up. Relax. Tightened stop and was taken out.
Trade 3 was a break out. Price stalled at 11:45, so I jammed my stop in for an exit at $150.45.
Trade 1 was a short off of a pullback. Trend carried over from the day before. Was a little too fidgety with my stop. I could have run the whole day with this trade, but got shaken out early. Probably not too realistic. I would have to go 90 minutes without touching the stop.
Trade 2 was a failed break out below $149, which was a support level from yesterday. After price bounced 3 times off $149, I took a long up, figuring I had support. The fight that ensued between the bears/bulls from 8:30-8:51 between $149-149.25 should have clued me into the breakout that followed. Lots of trapped traders there (including me...).
Trade 3 was the first pullback after the break out. Valid set up, with trend. I moved to break even after trade was well in my favor and after a little under 30 minutes. Got shaken out at that level. Probably could have made $0.75 on that trade.
Trade 4 was a continuation of trade 3, caught most of what I would have in Trade 3.
Trade 5 was a pull back in a (small) uptrend. At 12:15, I knew this was a short term trade. So I jammed my stop at the first sign of stall. I probably would have gotten stopped out if I had tried to wait for the slighter higher high that followed.
Last edited by bijeremiad; July 26th, 2012 at 12:21 AM.
Trade 1 right direction. was a little late after the pull back, just a bit early. Stopped out.
Trade 2 was a disaster. Counter trend, had not broken the trend line yet (in blue). It was bouncing off resistance at $147, but only 1 failure. Mileage wouldn't have been that great, even if I were short.
I did miss the short at 7:42. I passed at the time becuase I thought the R:R was off because of resistance at $147.
Afterwards I did watch for other trades. The trade at 9:48 would have been a good one.
Trade 1 was the right direction but early. I thought I had a bounce of $149.50 resistance. Stopped out pretty quickly.
Trade 2 got cock-eyed in the brief chop. Really? flipping directions 4 bars later? Thought maybe I was seeing a reversal with the higher low at 7:00am. I should have been more focused on the lower high at 7:06. This was definitely a countertrend trade. Only lasted 15 minutes.