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Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

Purpose:
The purpose of this trading journal is to publicly record my trading journey that both I and others may learn and grow from my mistakes, as well as, provide a form of accountability with other traders. The reason I am trading is for independence, to provide for my family and best use my time, finances, talents and everything God provides to glorify Him.


Goals:
Journal: to post my trades good, bad and missed each trading day with my review and comments. Post a weekly procedure focused goal that I work to achieve each week.
Trading: to consistently pull 35-40 pips out of the market each day.


Brokers, Markets, Instruments and Platforms: for this portion of my journey I am using Oanda for a broker to trade the spot forex markets focusing on the EUR/USD currency pair. My choice of platforms is limited at Oanda to MT4 and fxTrade. Charting will be done on MT4 and trade placement on fxtrade.


Time-frames:
Higher Time Frame (HTF): the four hour chart will be used to define market structure by identifying major areas of supply and demand (S/D). A 15min chart will be used to further mark off areas that may provide intermediate S/D zones.
Trading Time Frame (TTF): For primary trading decisions and identifying setups the 5 min chart will be used. This chart will be used for minor S/D, analyzing the trend and assessing price strength and weakness.
Lower Time Frame (LTF): fine tuning of entries and exits of setups will be done on a 1 min chart.

Risk/Money Management and Exit Strategy:
For risk all trades must have an R: R of 1:1 to the first target (T1) and 1:3 or better to the second target (T2). Trades will be expected to always have two targets, T1 being the first area of expected resistance and T2 the next S/D zone. Stops will always placed with every trade at the area which would prove the trade premise was incorrect.


Strategy and Setups:
Steady trend setups: pullback (PB) and complex pullback (CPB)
Weakening trend setups: CPB & PB if they break a previous swing low (uptrend) or swing high (downtrend). With Caution: counter-trend, test S/D (TST) or breakout fail (BOF) of swing high (uptrend) or swing low (downtrend)
Within a Sideways Trading Range with a clear intra-range trend setups: PB and CPB
Approaching HTF S/R or range S/D, without strength setups: TST
Approaching HTF S/D or range S/D, with strength setups: BOF and breakout pullback (BPB)

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  #3 (permalink)
 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
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Two trades, both short for +5.

Trade one was a CPB that I entered at last wholesale price (LWP). I exited after 10 min for a scratch trade as major impact news was coming in about four minutes.

Trade two was a TST of the 15 min supply area, first target achieved +11 and stop moved to pivot high one one minute chart. Was distracted and stopped out on second half of trade -6 for total of +5.

No further trading done for the day. Never took time to review for missed trades or further analysis of my trading session. This will be done in near future for all sessions.

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
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Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
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Only one trade today. I entered short at the test of the top of the range on the 5min (TTF) chart. The entry was triggered by a double top on the 1min (LTF) chart.

Part one was exited at T1. Part two is where I had the problem. I am currently trailing my STOP two pips above pivot highs on the TTF. Today this ended up being stopped out for 12 pips profit.

I am thinking this could have been managed better. My problem is, I am unsure how to better manage my trades when profitable like this. When the trade got close to my target I refrained from exiting as I began thinking it might get there. When it returned the second time I was thinking, this time it will go to my target. Something that I need to work on. Any ideas or suggestions would be appreciated.

Total profit 23 pips.

Also, still trying to figure out the best way to mark and post my charts here. If anyone has any suggestions for improvement in this area as well, I would be grateful.

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

Two trades today.

Trade one:
Long @ 1.32284
STOP 1.32160
T1 1.32404
T2 1.32884
Weak upward trend. Setup was invalid as I used a PB that had yet to break a previous swing low. Trigger entry used was the two bar rule. Stopped out for -25 pips

Trade two:
Long @ 1.32211
STOP 1.32122
T1 1.32371
T2 1.32911
Weak upward trend. CPB setup was valid, again used two bar rule entry trigger. Achieved T1 +16. Part two stopped out at +1 for total +17.

Total for day -8 pips.

In a weak trend a T2 of next S/D area may be overly optimistic. Take note and consider adjusting plan in this are next trading plan review.

Missed nice CPB into area of resistance at about 10:20.

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

One trade today. BPB Short.

Entry was bad (invalid). I entered from the LTF with not price action entry trigger. In review (hindsight being 20/20) I identified a better and best entry point on the LTF and a best entry point on the TTF.

I have difficulty moving to the LTF. I tend to move there to soon and then stay fixated on the LTF. This has been an area I have struggled with for a while. What is the best method to avoid this? I can refrain from moving to the LTF altogether. I can wait until the price gets closer to a point where a price action entry trigger would be more valid. I think it is a fear of not getting the BEST entry. Fear of missing out.

At about 10:07 I moved my targets (T1&T2) to where I would achieve my daily goal of +35 pips and I moved my STOP to b/e +1.

After that, my trade management and exit were also a disaster. Same issue as Friday, March 2. Price came within 1 pip of my target then moved away. Shortly after price again came within about 1 pip of my target, then moved away. All the while I kept feeling, this time it will hit it, and not wanting to exit and watch it go to where my target was.

Trade details:
Entry: short @ 1.31213 on BPB in a down trend having broke S/D
STOP: 1.31402
T1: 1.31013
T2: 1.30563 (not the next demand zone but 00 & 50 I consider strong areas of interest or S/D also)

So I ended up with a +2 pips today when it hit my STOP.

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 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
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@thewardiknowof,

Congratulation for your journal, questions for you. What period of the day are you trading ? between what and what ? Also, i don't know if it's the quality of your images or not but your data does not look terrible on your LTF. If i compare your charts to the 6E on Ninja, your charts show funny overlapping bars at a few places. Maybe a suggestion, what about using a vertical line to indicate your bias down or up when you consider a change of trend has occured. It would help us to better help you in case you are wrong for whatever reason. Maybe for your TTF a 10 min. interval would be better and 5 min. for the LTF given the quality of your feed.

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

Thank you for your questions. I trade from 09:30-12:30 EST.

As for the quality of my images, I am unsure how to change that. Do you have any ideas or suggestions? I am new to taking screen shots. I do believe that there is some difference between EUR/USD and 6E as I am sure you are aware. I know today I had to zoom out of the LTF chart in order to fit it all into one image. Perhaps I should take two screen shots of the LTF

Thank you for the suggestion of using a vertical line to indicate my bias and when I consider the trend to have changed, I will implement this. GREAT idea!

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 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Don't change anything, your images are OK. i think it has to do with the Oanda datafeed quality which displays little quirks at times.


thewardiknowof View Post
Thank you for your questions. I trade from 09:30-12:30 EST.

As for the quality of my images, I am unsure how to change that. Do you have any ideas or suggestions?


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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received



trendisyourfriend View Post
Don't change anything, your images are OK. i think it has to do with the Oanda datafeed quality which displays little quirks at times.

I finally understood what you were saying. I did not change anything with my images. I did change from taking a screen shot of MT4 to what I actually use for the LTF (fxTrade). I was not using this for screen shots as it's harder to mark my trades on (ex my stop and both targets don't display.

Took one trade today a PB short, entering on LTF with a double top/doji for trigger. Again I feel I mismanaged the trade. I followed my plan, yet I feel it could have been better managed.

I also marked on the charts today the trades I feel I missed on the LTF and TTF charts. On the TTF chart I included arrows to indicate what I viewed the trend as.

Trade details:
Entry: short @ 1.31138 on PB in a down trend
STOP: 1.31220
T1: 1.31038
T2: 1.30538
Results: part 1 +10 pips part 2 -6 pips
Total: +4 pips

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 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
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thewardiknowof, the LTF chart looks much better to my eyes at least. Regarding the exit for part two i agree, there was a much better place to exit to preserve your profit when signs of weakness made their apparition on the sell side. About your S/R lines, how do you proceed to identify these levels ? Are you using swing highs and lows only ? Looking at your longer term chart it's not clear ? With Oanda can you use anything else than minute chart ? Can you use tick or range chart or Point & Figure chart with their main platform ?

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
... About your S/R lines, how do you proceed to identify these levels ? Are you using swing highs and lows only ? Looking at your longer term chart it's not clear ? With Oanda can you use anything else than minute chart ? Can you use tick or range chart or Point & Figure chart with their main platform ?

To identify S/R lines you are correct, I only use swing highs and lows. I do leave the lines in place if price stalls there but does move through them.

As for Oanda's main platform, it is very basic/simplistic. There are only time based charts and even those are rather limited. I have chosen them to use as I learn as I am able to trade live with very, very small size, thus keeping my losses to a minimum while learning and still having some "skin in the game".

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
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Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
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Two trades today:

Trade one: LONG
Entry:1.32337
STOP: 1.32237
T1: 1.32447
T2: 1.32737

The trend just changed from down to sideways. I used a TST setup noticed on TTF then switched to LTF and used a 123 bottom to trigger my entry. This was a narrow sideways range from about 1.3225-1.3252. The trade began to head up, when I saw on the LTF that it started to reverse (about 9 min into the trade) fear took over me and I moved my STOP to b/e. I then was stopped out for a scratch trade. In hindsight, entry, initial stop and targets were all properly placed. Good trade idea, poor trade management.
RESULTS= 0 pips

Trade two: SHORT
Entry:1.32684
STOP: 1.32810
T1: 1.32558
T2: 1.32334

Price moved up to what I considered TTF resistance and pulled back. Then approached again and I incorrectly determined price was not in an uptrend but a larger trading range from about 1.3225-1.3278. At this point I again used a TST setup on TTF with a lower time frame trigger of doji/double top. I achieved target one(+12 pips) and moved the stop to b/e +1 and was eventually stopped out here (+1 pip). This was done again out of fear and not because of my plan. It is my plan at this point to trail using TTF swing highs and lows. This trade I consider invalid as I misinterpreted the price action and trend while live. In hindsight it would have been a valid counter-trend PB trade in which I would have had only one target again placed at T1.
RESULTS= +13 pips

Any comments, recommendations, or suggestions on better trade management or on my trades /journal in general are welcome and greatly appreciated.

Thanks to @trendisyourfriend for the comments and suggestions. I am grateful for the help.

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

One trades today:

Trade: SHORT
Entry:1.31290
STOP: 1.31470
T1: 1.31120
T2: 1.31050

There was a steady down trend. I used the BPB setup observed on TTF, then switched to LTF and the shooting star followed by a two candle gravestone doji triggered my entry. Withing five minutes
T1 was achieved (+17 pips) and stop moved to 1.31360. After another 21 min, I moved the stop to b/e +1 (not in my plan). Part two of the trade was then stopped out 34 min into the trade (+1 pips).
RESULTS= +18 pips

I stopped trading early today. I really need some sleep as per my trading plan. Will review the weeks trading and post my goal for next week tomorrow, LORD willing.

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 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
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thewardiknowof,

I placed some notes on the image attached to this post hoping it might help you in assessing the trend. I have also noted that you may be a bit too quick to identify a change of trend. You may probably consider a break of a Higher Low in an uptrend as a change of trend but the overall context may propose a different reading.

I use the Fibonacci tool to help me when i am unsure if the recent swing just broken is enough to consider a change of my bias from up to down or vice versa. In the present case, the use of a rising trendline was a big help along with finding the middle point between the highest high and the rising trendline to gauge if a change of bias was pertinent at this point in time. I would have considered a change of my bias only if price was unable to be accepted above this middle point.

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
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Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
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trendisyourfriend,

Thank you very much!! You have gone above and beyond and I truly appreciate your help.

This makes a lot of sense and the image with your notes is very clear. A question I have regarding trend, how do you define and identify sideways ranges? I understand and think how you identify up and down trends and will implement the ideas into my analysis. Very, very helpful.

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
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Goal for trading week of March 12-16

Implement STOPs according to plan without deviating for every trade, every day this week.

Place the initial STOP two pips beyond previous SH (swing high) or SL (swing low) on TTF. Then adjust or move two pips beyond subsequent TTF SHs/SLs.

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 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
Quebec
 
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Your welcome. For sideways price action i try to keep it very simple. Price moves in a step ladder fashion making a pause at each step. There is expansion in one direction and a period of rotation develops between two levels (a High and a Low point) where the middle point of this new area of balance gets fat and again expansion occurs in one direction. In short, we have expansion, balance, expansion, balance continuously on all timeframes.

What i usually focus my attention on are GAPS that form between areas of balance (see yellow ovales on image and blue rectangles). I consider a zone of balance is in development right after the most recent GAP is beginning to get filled with price and would mark the boundaries by considering the body of the candles only.

I would consider an expansion has occured only if price can clearly move away from a zone of balance by leaving a GAP behind. Such a GAP should be easily perceptible, that is, the first candle to break outside should have no overlap with subsequent candles up until the first bar that forms in the opposite direction. Hence the name GAP. These GAPs represent a strong imbalance in supply/demand and their boundaries may act as support/resistance. I oftentimes only trade when price revisits these areas of imbalance as they are easier to see on a chart (PnF chart are the best for this) even more so than trying to define regular lines of S/R at swing Highs/Lows which can be tricky at times or just too subjective.

Again, for defining an area of balance i only consider the body of the candles that falls within that zone. I find this approach a bit more permissive than considering a break of a swing High/Low as you do. Also, it prevents me from changing my bias too often without a good reason, ie, a strong reason to believe the forces of supply/demand have created an imbalance scenario important enough to see a potential change of polarity in the order flow.



thewardiknowof View Post
trendisyourfriend,

Thank you very much!! You have gone above and beyond and I truly appreciate your help.

This makes a lot of sense and the image with your notes is very clear. A question I have regarding trend, how do you define and identify sideways ranges? I understand and think how you identify up and down trends and will implement the ideas into my analysis. Very, very helpful.


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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: cTrader
Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

One trade today:

Trade: SHORT
Entry:1.31253
STOP: 1.31353
T1: 1.31053
T2: 1.30553

I saw the a sideways range bound trend for most of the day. In my analysis price broke out to the upside near the end of my trading session. I took a TST setup observed on TTF, entering on an engulfing bar on the LTF for entry. Was stopped out after 28 minutes -20 pips.
RESULTS= -20 pips

Had a hard time getting in tune with the market, never felt comfortable all day.

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 thewardiknowof 
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
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Broker: ThinkForex
Trading: Forex
 
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Trendisyourfriend,

I tried marking up my TTF chart with what I learned from your suggestions for trend analysis. Today may not have been the best day for this although I would appreciate your feedback, if and when you have time. Also, I noticed the image you put up was the 15 min. Was there any particular reason? Would you recommend I use my TTF (5 min) to do this? One final question for now, how do you trade sideways days such as today? I look forward to your responses.

Thanks in advance,

Ward

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Hi,

Here is my chart with some notes. Today the trend stayed UP although i tried an attempt to go down after a wide range bar to the downside. I was expecting price to break out of the range that started during the night for me (EST). It did not take long to see i was wrong. Price made another wide range bar, that was a sign of strength. The arrows mark my bias.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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thewardiknowof,


I downloaded your chart in order to point out something to you which i consider important. You remember when i mentionned that price makes expansion and balance and repeat that sequence in a continuous discovery process looking for a fair value. Each balance area is separated from the next by one or more wide range bar. A balance area contains three areas of interest; the fattest part roughly around the middle of the zone, the top and bottom. If price breaks above the fattest point of such an area of balance with conviction (wide range bar) then don't try to fade this move as the fattest area of a zone of balance will most certainly bring opposing order flow. You can consider it as a level of S/R. A Market Profiler would look at this level as a point of control (POC) and a volume profiler as a High Volume Node. No matter how you want to call it, it certainly will act as a barrier. These high volume nodes are often tested and serve as base for price for the next run. Not always but often enough to take note of it.

p.s. I do not use Market Profile anymore as i can visually guess-estimate the same info using a bar chart.

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 thewardiknowof 
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trendisyourfriend,

Thank you for your help. How do you know where the area of balance ends? There was a wide range bar down at the end of the balance are you show. I was also thinking earlier, would this not have been a trend change to down? Is that why you considered going short a few bars later?

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Technically an area of balance contains overlapping bars although a trending bias may be present within the formation. Here is a new chart i have commented in order to objectively define the zone i would consider as sideways price action. Remember, in my mind such a zone can show mini trend sequence. The idea is to get a coherent structure to gauge strength and weakness when price approaches the limits of these zones. Within a zone if you get wide range bars or some mini trending sequences then look at it as strength or lack of it. I don't want to make it look more complex than it is. In many cases i do not draw these zones as i can visualise them. (see picture)


thewardiknowof View Post
trendisyourfriend,

Thank you for your help. How do you know where the area of balance ends? There was a wide range bar down at the end of the balance are you show. I was also thinking earlier, would this not have been a trend change to down? Is that why you considered going short a few bars later?


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 thewardiknowof 
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This really clarified what you refer to as gaps. You have also presented this in a very understandable way for me to see the "coherent structure". Now it's practice on my part to become proficient at drawing/observing the structure in hindsight, then come to the point where I can visualize this as it is occurring. Anything you can suggest to help speed up this process? I truly appreciate the time you are giving to me.

p.s. what screen capturing program do you use?

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 trendisyourfriend 
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I use snagIt

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 thewardiknowof 
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Two trades today:

Trade ONE: SHORT
Entry:1.30625
STOP: 1.30725
T1: 1.30525
T2: 1.30055

Trend was DOWN and price started pulling back. I moved to LTF and saw what I thought to be the end of the PB and entered with a spike ledge entry trigger. Price continued to move sideways with strength toward the upside. Was stopped out after 39 minutes -20 pips. This was an invalid setup. On TTF there was no clear price action indication of a PB, I was guessing.
RESULTS= -20 pips

Trade TWO: LONG
Entry: 1.30959
STOP: 1.30900
T1: 1.31029
T2: 1.31459

Trend changed to UP as price showed acceptance above the downtrend line and the 50% fib level. Entered BPB setup with an engulfing candle trigger. Was a little hesitant/fearful as I would have previously considered this a BOF and trend still DOWN until the help and teaching of trendisyourfriend (thank you). Achieved T1 for +7 and then exited part two because I felt trend changed to DOWN +13. Still unsure how best to have exited this trade. Should I have had my second target at mid to upper area of previous sideways/balance area above my entry? Still learning this part but appears to have been a good choice.
RESULTS= +20

TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= 0 pips (scratch)

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Nice trades, you end in positive.

Again just offering my opinion. I know it is much easier to comment with the benefit of hindsight but nevertheless here i go...

About your first trade, you got an opportunity to close the trade at break even i think. One thing you can do also is to incorporate in your plan the 75% recovery rule. Can be any % though. If price does not hit your catastrophic stop loss but allows you to recover 75% of your highest lost in this trade then scratch the trade with a small loss. The idea is to minimize your risk and allow you to regroup as it can be tough mentally to assess the situation while losing. Ex. your stop loss is at 20 ticks from your entry, price goes against you for -12 ticks (highest peak to date). Price resumes in your direction and since 75% of 12 gives 9 then you would scratch the trade as soon as you recover 9 ticks. You would make a small loss but a controled loss of -3 ticks.

About the second trade...

When you are in a winning trade and an out of ordinary event occurs by all means try too profit from it. Always try to profit from a wide range bar. In itself, these bars are exceptional or rare so my suggestion is to close a unit or the trade at the close of a wide range bar. You can't lose if you do this and you have just profited from an exceptional event. Don't be too greedy as price as a tendency to retrace these WRB's. I like to think that price likes to close the GAP formed by these bars.

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 thewardiknowof 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Nice trades, you end in positive.

Again just offering my opinion. I know it is much easier to comment with the benefit of hindsight but nevertheless here i go...

Your opinions are very welcome, thank you. you have been a great help to me!


trendisyourfriend View Post
About your first trade, you got an opportunity to close the trade at break even i think. One thing you can do also is to incorporate in your plan the 75% recovery rule. Can be any % though. If price does not hit your catastrophic stop loss but allows you to recover 75% of your highest lost in this trade then scratch the trade with a small loss.

The recovery rule makes a lot of sense to me. This is an area I struggle with, something I will implement.


trendisyourfriend View Post
The idea is to minimize your risk and allow you to regroup as it can be tough mentally to assess the situation while losing.

That is me, I find it really difficult to assess the situation while losing, it starts to come back and I think now it will go in my direction, then goes and takes out my STOP. By being out of the trade, I should be able to look it over more objectively.


trendisyourfriend View Post
About the second trade...

When you are in a winning trade and an out of ordinary event occurs by all means try too profit from it. Always try to profit from a wide range bar. In itself, these bars are exceptional or rare so my suggestion is to close a unit or the trade at the close of a wide range bar. You can't lose if you do this and you have just profited from an exceptional event. Don't be too greedy as price as a tendency to retrace these WRB's. I like to think that price likes to close the GAP formed by these bars.

Good to know, I never really considered that a WRB should be considered an out of the ordinary event. Looking at them as GAPs as you explained prior, I have also felt price tends to close them, thanks again.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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These GAPs left behind by WRBs that are slack in demand or supply have a tendency to act as a magnet for price. That's why we constantly see price going up and down for no apparent reasons in relatively short periods of time. That is how a fair value level is found. Price test an extreme point leaving behind slack demand or supply, you can be sure these almost empty areas of supply/demand will be revisited.

This is also called pocket of low usage from a Market Profile perspective. To this end, i encourage you to view the following webinar and more particularly the section named Market movement > Putting bell curve into context and Recognizing low usage at this URL . The same phenomena described with Market Profile can also be used on a minor scale by identifying WRBs on a chart. This is the same thing but different words and means to describe it.


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...Good to know, I never really considered that a WRB should be considered an out of the ordinary event. Looking at them as GAPs as you explained prior, I have also felt price tends to close them, thanks again.


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 thewardiknowof 
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Had a tough time today discerning trend and felt confused about trade setups. The first trade is clear evidence of this.

Two trades today:

Trade ONE: SHORT
Entry:1.30416
STOP: 1.30700
T1: 1.30316
T2: none

Trend was DOWN and price started pulling back. I moved to LTF and saw what I thought to be the end of the PB SAME MISTAKE AS YESTERDAY used an engulfing candle as entry trigger. This was an INVALID setup. On TTF there was no clear price action indication of a PB, I was guessing. What made this trade worse was I entered a huge STOP and small target! Even worse, I never implemented the 75% recovery rule. I never adhered to my plan at all. I think the biggest problem with this trade is it ended profitable.
RESULTS= +20 pips

I took a 15 min time out away from the screen and came back placing one more trade.

Trade TWO: SHORT
Entry: 1.30290
STOP: 1.30410
T1: 1.30210
T2: 1.30010

Trend was DOWN still never waited for TTF to show me the setup. This appears to be a problem area for me. Achieved T1 after 16 min +8 pips. Did follow my trailing STOP method and was STOPPED out of part two for +4 pips 29 min after entry.
RESULTS= +12 pips

TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= +32 pips

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 thewardiknowof 
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First, I would like to apologize to @trendisyourfriend for not following his advice or following my plan yesterday. For all the time, effort and help given to, this was disrespectful and I apologize.

Back to following my trading plan today. Waited until after the release of the Philly Fed (10:30 EST) before trading. Market moving sideways from beginning of my trading session to this point, but in an overall UP trend.

Two trades:

Trade ONE: SHORT (counter-trend)
Entry:1.30732
STOP: 1.30832
T1: 1.30632
T2: n/a

Trend broke out of the sideways action in the UP direction, when I saw price turn down on the TTF I moved to my LTF chart and entered SHORT at LWP. Appears I was a little to greedy, price just missed my target and I exited at b/e as this was a counter-trend trade so I expected the move UP to continue.
RESULTS= 0 pips (scratch)

Trade TWO:LONG
Entry: 1.30679
STOP: 1.30590
T1: 1.30779
T2: 1.30879

Felt trend was still UP, price pulled back to where it broke out of the sideways price action and downward momentum was weakening. I moved to LTF and entered LONG on a BPB setup with a hammer candle trigger. T1 was achieved ( +10 pips) after 10 minutes. Did trail my STOP using SL's on TTF. Was difficult, still unsure if this is the best way. Hard to watch a trade come back to b/e or go negative after achieving the first target. Stuck to the plan. After 54 minutes I exited the trade when price came within 2 pips of T2 and then begin to turn against me for +14 pips. Thought maybe I was being greedy.
RESULTS= +24 pips

TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= +24 pips

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 trendisyourfriend 
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thewardiknowof View Post
First, I would like to apologize to @trendisyourfriend for not following his advice or following my plan yesterday. For all the time, effort and help given to, this was disrespectful and I apologize.
...

Please, don't apologize, i am a student just like anybody else. As for my advices take them cum grano salis (with a grain of salt) and a bit of skepticism.

About your first trade, my opinion is that it was a bit risky or the potential reward too low. Price had just broke above a level of resistance with some strength considering the previous price action. Alway fade weakness not strength. The expectation was for a pull back to the level just broken and continuation to the next resistance.

As a rule of thumb when price forms a range that looks like a pennant, you can make an educated guess as to the target if price breaks outside the pattern. In an up-trend, the targeted move is measured from the start point of the trend (the breakout point at the base of the trend or most recent congestion pattern) to the highest high recorded in the flag or pennant pattern. The move is then projected up from the point of breakout (from the flag or pennant pattern), to arrive at the target.

In all fairness, i prefer to look at a prior resistance or support than relying on a projected move. If you have both then what else can we ask. Seriously, there was some resistance to the left (yellow rectangle).


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 thewardiknowof 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
About your first trade, my opinion is that it was a bit risky or the potential reward too low. Price had just broke above a level of resistance with some strength considering the previous price action. Alway fade weakness not strength. The expectation was for a pull back to the level just broken and continuation to the next resistance.

I agree, it was a risky trade. What do you do regarding news? As I mentioned I stood aside until the Philly Fed was released, in my plan unless I am in a trade and fairly profitable I do not trade for a bout 5 min before and after what forex factory classifies as HIGH impact news.

Another question for you or anyone that can offer suggestions, how do you manage your trades once profitable?

Ward

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 thewardiknowof 
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Stuck to my plan and achieved my weekly goal of following my exit strategy. Still think there is a better way for exiting second part of my trades. Need to research to find a better approach.

Two trades:

Trade ONE: LONG -Pull Back setup
Entry:1.31733
STOP: 1.31660
T1: 1.31813
T2: 1.32213

Trend was clearly up UP the TTF showed a slight PB prior to next resistance level. When price began to move up again I entered long after the LTF harami candle. After 17 min the first target was achieved +8 pips, the following 5 min candle moved up again and I moved my stop to b/e (not technically according to my plan as I should have waited for price to make a higher swing. Began seeing weakness and another 13 min and the second part of the trade was stopped out at b/e.
RESULTS= +8 pips

Trade TWO:SHORT -TST setup
Entry: 1.31775
STOP: 1.31900
T1: 1.31645
T2: 1.31425

While the trend was still UP, price was showing weakness and it was right at a supply zone. when I saw a 123 double top forming on the TTF I dropped to the LTF and entered short on the break below the doji. My better entry would have been four minutes later on the close of the bearing engulfing candle. This trade felt long and grueling, I wanted to exit multiple times, particularly when price came withing two ticks of my first target then retraced. I did hang in there and after 56 min was rewarded with the achievement of T1 for +13 pips. All the while trailing my stop 2 pips above the swing highs, eventually being stopped out for +1 pip.
RESULTS= +14 pips

TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= +22 pips

This day I felt very uncomfortable trading. I never felt confident in either trade. It was very taxing on me mentally. Was a successful day though as I followed my plan.

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 thewardiknowof 
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My goal for the week of March 19-24 is to go through the Elusive Price Action: How to Trade thread and determine how much time would be required by me, to view & study for comprehension the entire thread. Then set out a plan to accomplish this.

Second, search futures.io (formerly BMT) and highlight threads applicable to managing profitable trades, listing out ideas and methods.

Third, wait for setups on TTF before dropping to the LTF or take the trades for the TTF.

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 thewardiknowof 
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No trading today, as per trading plan health clause.

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 thewardiknowof 
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Completely out of tune today. Did take four trades three for loss and one a scratch.

Trade 1: SHORT -PB setup
Entry:1.31935
STOP:1.32034
T1:1.31835
T2:1.31585

I was still thinking trend was down, completely forgot how to determine trend so went short at LWP. Trade was stopped out for -20 pips.
RESULTS= -20 pips

Trade 2: SHORT -TST setup
Entry:1.32265
STOP:1.3237
T1:1.32065
T2:1.31865

Trend was up, I went counter-trend thinking direction was reversing at area of resistance. On LTF a double top trigger was my entry and six minutes later the trade was stopped out for -21 pips.
RESULTS= -21 pips

Trade 3: SHORT -BOF setup
Entry:1.32364
STOP:1.3247
T1:1.3226
T2:1.321864

Trend remained up and I again went counter-trend. Thinking the trend was weakening on LTF I again entered short on a double top. This trade, when I saw inability to break lower on another movement down I exited the trade when the doji formed for a scratch of + 1 pips.
RESULTS= +1 pips

Trade 4: LONG -flag setup
Entry:1.3239
STOP:1.322
T1:1.3254
T2:1.3269

I felt a flag had formed and entered long after the doji that caused my exit of trade three. Targets were then calculated as per flag measured move. T1 was half way. I was trading not to have another loss and thus set the stop way down to below my resistance line. Forgot about my catastrophic loss rule and ended the day with a huge loss of -40 pips.
RESULTS= -40 pips.

Overall, in hindsight I should have not been trading today as it appears my thinking was still unclear. This was a day when I should have been asking for a second opinion as to my mental clarity.

TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= -80 pips

Will I EVER learn????

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thewardiknowof View Post
Overall, in hindsight I should have not been trading today as it appears my thinking was still unclear. This was a day when I should have been asking for a second opinion as to my mental clarity.

Will I EVER learn????

What very specific steps will you take to improve this behavior, and/or to not repeat this unwanted behavior on the future?

How will you measure your success in accomplishing these specific steps? (not net profit)

Will you start tomorrow?

Mike

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 thewardiknowof 
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Big Mike View Post
What very specific steps will you take to improve this behavior, and/or to not repeat this unwanted behavior on the future?

How will you measure your success in accomplishing these specific steps? (not net profit)

Will you start tomorrow?

Mike

Thank you for the questions Mike. They are very good and important.

One specific step that I will begin taking immediately is if I am feeling even slightly that my abilty to think and focus clearly is not 100%, I will ask my wife her opinion as to if I am struggling in this area. If she feels I am less than 100%, I will not trade that day.

I now have a mental/physical health question in my pre-session checklist. I am working on a grading method to rank my condition on a scale of 1-5 (1 being best), which will be complete this week. Then I can track and ensure I will not trade unless I am at my optimal health.

I am going to take the weekend and come up with specific steps I can take to keep from trading to not lose or set my STOP beyond where I would be proven wrong. These steps will be implemented by Monday.

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 thewardiknowof 
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Failed in achieving my weekly goal for today's trades. last two trades I never waited for TTF setup. Surprise, surprise they were both negative. No more dropping to LTF for rest of the week.

Three trades:

Trade 1: SHORT -Pull Back (PB) setup
Entry:1.32311
STOP: 1.324
T1: 1.32221
T2: 1.31861

Trend was moving sideways in a downtrend. As price moved near the top the the sideways area and formed a bearish bar on the TTF, I dropped down to the LTF and when I saw the doji at the top I entered short at the close of the following bear candle. Trade slowly moved down and I was alerted to upcoming news. I then exited my trade three minutes before the HIGH impact news release.
RESULTS= +10 pips

Trade 2:LONG -Complex Pull Back (CPB) setup -invalid
Entry: 1.32363
STOP: 1.323
T1: 1.32523
T2: 1.32663

I felt the trend had changed to up. Price began pulling back and formed a bullish candle at which point I moved to the LTF to look for an entry trigger. Price continued moving lower and broke the low of the bull candle, I assumed it was going to be then a CPB not a PB. I then entered with what I thought was a two-bar rule trigger. I realized it realized it wasn't and made the mistake thinking it would work out anyway. Four minutes later was stooped out of the trade.
RESULTS= -12 pips

Trade 3:LONG -Test (TST) setup -invalid
Entry: 1.31914
STOP: 1.31815
T1: 1.32044
T2: 1.32334

With the trend down, price began slowing as it approached support. Without waiting for a setup on TTF I dropped to the LTF and entered long on the close of the bull candle following the bullish dragonfly doji. Price began up then reversed shortly after. Had an opportunity to exit with a small loss when price did not make a higher high after the drop. Instead I held it to be stopped out.
RESULTS= -20 pips

Trade one was managed proper and according to plan. Trade two I began by waiting for a TTF setup, but rather than moving back to TTF when it did not trigger as expected, I stayed on the LTF. Trade three was off the LTF without waiting for a setup.
TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= -22 pips

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 trendisyourfriend 
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thewardiknowof,

I think you are trying to do too much mental processing, that is, ongoing analysis + identifying trading areas/setups + managing the trade. This is just too much for someone that starts. Focus on one aspect and master it before adding one more task. At first sight, you seem to have a problem to anticipate the potential future direction. You also have some difficulties to spot weakness and strength and assess what it means in the developing context. So given these considerations, why not take one baby step and start from there. Forget about trying to find the next opportunity, instead focus all your effort and attention to get a more accurate assessment of likely future price direction. Just that as your primary objective. This will probably lower your stress and help you have a clearer mind. Think about how you could achieve this objective and how to measure it as objectively as possible. Once you feel you have mastered this aspect to some extent then add another step, identifying an area to trade. Again, no need to place a trade or see any particular setup but just focusing on the task of identifying a good area to make business. etc etc.

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 thewardiknowof 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Forget about trying to find the next opportunity, instead focus all your effort and attention to get a more accurate assessment of likely future price direction. Just that as your primary objective..

Your suggestion is greatly appreciated. I am going to take your recommendation.


trendisyourfriend View Post
Think about how you could achieve this objective and how to measure it as objectively as possible.

Tomorrow I will detail specific steps with an to more accurately assess likely future direction with a method to measure my progress objectively. This plan I will post for any suggestions, comments and/or critiques anyone would be willing to give.

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 thewardiknowof 
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No trades today, as suggested by trendisyourfriend. I am posting the days three charts (LTF,TTF,HTF). The TTF has been marked up with trend direction and areas of interest as trendisyourfriend explained to me earlier.

I have yet to come up with specific steps as to how to determine future direction and a method to measure my progress objectively. Still working on it and will attempt to post it here today.

Suggestions on where to look into to this are welcome.

Ward

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 thewardiknowof 
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I will be away today, thus no charts, no trading, no plan/steps or goals today. I will take some time and continue posting Monday.

Ward

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I will be away today, thus no charts, no trading, no plan/steps or goals today. I will take some time and continue posting Monday.

Ward





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 thewardiknowof 
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Some things I have decided to do to help keep me from trading NOT to lose:
1. Upon entering each trade I will mentally write a cheque for the cost of doing business for the trade.
2. Place a rule in my trading plan for maximum number of unprofitable trades allowed in a row in a session before I stop trading for the session.
3. Place a rule in my trading plan for maximum number of unprofitable trades in the same direction allowed in a session before I stop trading for the session.
4. Place a rule in my trading plan for maximum number of unprofitable trades allowed in a session before I stop trading for the session.
5. Place a rule in my trading plan that if I have a loss or break one of the above rules, I will stop trading for the session and take two days off, staying away from the markets completely.
6. Continue researching "fear of loss" or fear of losing" and implement new rules, ideas and suggestions that will assist in having success in my trading.

Definitions:
1. Loss: a loss is when I look at a trade in hindsight and the trade was exited at a place worse than where it reasonably and logically showed that my premise for entering the trade was wrong.
2. Cost of Doing Business or Risk: the amount that would be removed from my account if a trade was exited negatively, yet before creating a loss (as defined above).

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 thewardiknowof 
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To define future direction I will do the following:
1. Use YTC PAT method of defining trends.
2. If I am uncertain of the trend, use the prior suggestion by trendisyourfriend to further define up/down trends.
3. If still uncertain I will add ema (15) and ema (20) and consider trend to be in the direction of the ema cross.
4. I will highlight areas and add arrows and comments on TTF charts to indicate my assessment of future direction while live.
5. I will review in hindsight how well I did in defining trend and assessing future direction. If incorrect in areas, I will then study to see why I made the choices I did, why I misinterpreted direction and place my comments on a second chart.
6. Once I am consistent in correctly defining future direction, I will decide on a second area of my trading to focus on improving.

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 thewardiknowof 
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As mentioned today I was focusing on future direction. Trend was in a sideways range at the beginning of my session. It then broke out to the upside with one strong 5 min bull bar then again began moving sideways for the rest of my trading session. Comments and critiques welcome.




I have also attached my HTF chart

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 thewardiknowof 
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All times mentioned are Eastern Time Zone and my trading session is from 0930 to 1230. Trends are as they appear on my Trading Time Frame (TTF)

At 0555 the trend turned to DOWN and continued down until 0845 when the direction changed to UP. Ten minutes into my trading session at 0940 I marked the change to sideways in which it continued for my entire trading session.

Upon hindsight review, it appears my assessment of future direction was accurate. Rather straightforward in my view with only one change of trend while live.

I highlighted the sideways range at 0940 and kept extending it right as price stayed in the range.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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thewardiknowof View Post
All times mentioned are Eastern Time Zone and my trading session is from 0930 to 1230. Trends are as they appear on my Trading Time Frame (TTF)

At 0555 the trend turned to DOWN and continued down until 0845 when the direction changed to UP. Ten minutes into my trading session at 0940 I marked the change to sideways in which it continued for my entire trading session.

Upon hindsight review, it appears my assessment of future direction was accurate. Rather straightforward in my view with only one change of trend while live.

I highlighted the sideways range at 0940 and kept extending it right as price stayed in the range.

You are right. There was not much action today on the US session. Me too was looking for opportunities at 1.3350 or 1.3325.

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 thewardiknowof 
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London markets opened still in a 50 pip sideways range between 1.3312 to 1.3362. An hour and ten minutes later price attempted to breakout to the upside but was quickly rejected. Trend then continued in the range with a downside bias. Just before 0900 there was a strong attempt to break out of the range to the downside, price tried to return into the range a couple times but it was only temporary, creating an down trend at about 1000. Then at 1155 (according to my trend determining rules) the trend it was marked as another sideways range with an upward bias. I think the chart is a little clearer than my explanation.



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 thewardiknowof 
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In hindsight the London session opened after a test of resistance and confirmed a sideways range about 20 minutes in. A test of the top of the range and price began gaining strength to the downside. About two hours after the London open price broke out of the range to the downside, confirming a downtrend five minutes later.
While live I saw and marked the trend as being sideways again at 0925 EST (time on charts is MST). Price then continued in the a range between 1.3256 and 1.3287 for my entire trading session. In hindsight a more conservative confirmation for trend change to sideways would have been around 1045 EST. I did not expect price to break any lower as it had already moved about 95% of the average daily range, thus I felt comfortable in identifying the range at my earlier point.




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 thewardiknowof 
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NY session began in a sideways range from 1.3328-1.3356 with a downside bias. Price stayed in the range until 1035 when it boke out to the downside, becoming a downtrend. At about 1115 I marked the trend as sideways again. Price had moved back into the 1.3328-1.3356 area now with an upward bias.

In hind sight it appears I was to eager to consider trend down. There was a downward swing which had some strength, although there was no real follow through, as it moved back into the range within 30-40 minutes.

Unsure how to have seen this coming and not considered the trend to have changed to down. Any thoughts or suggestions on this are welcome.

Tomorrow, I will attempt to post my goal for next week.



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 Big Mike 
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
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 thewardiknowof 
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Big Mike View Post
A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

  • it made me review my trades each daily, a least a little.
  • it became obvious I don't even know, the areas I am struggling in and am blind to some of my weaknesses.
  • I received helpful, constructive critiques from fellow traders.
  • some accountability was felt.
  • realized, I have a lot of work to do to become consistently profitable.

Big Mike View Post
B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

  • I had slacked off in my review process laid out in my trading plan.
  • my actions often are opposite of my intentions, words and goals.
  • I am easily sidetracked.
  • my trading plan needs to be simplified.
  • adoption of new ideas (good or bad) into my strategy, without testing them myself to find out if they work in my plan happens to easily.

Big Mike View Post
C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

Reluctance was not and issue. Just making it a priority and also deciding where to begin journaling online.


Big Mike View Post
D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

Journaling online (particularly here at futures.io (formerly BMT)) has helped me to grow as a trader. The fact that there are others on futures.io (formerly BMT) that are willing to share their trading wisdom, are willing to be straightforward makes me wish I had discovered this site a long time ago. Just the fact I don't know, what I don't know, and having some light shed on some of these issues of my has made it very, very worthwhile.


Big Mike View Post
E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Yes, I would definitely recommend others start a trading journal immediately. I have been encouraging all traders I meet to come to futures.io (formerly BMT) and begin a trading journal. It really does not matter what sort of experience a person has, I feel it would be beneficial to everyone. As for downside, I have yet to find any.



Thank you Mike for starting this site!

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 thewardiknowof 
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While it was not posted Saturday, I am continuing to focus on trend /future direction identification this week.

Today, a couple hours after the London open I marked the trend as being steadily down. This continued until about the time my trading session started (this was in hindsight).

The following was identified live, beginning at about 10-15 minutes before my trading session with my overall assessment that I was expecting either a stall and price to continue sideways for most or all of the day, or the trend to reverse as the average daily range had already been covered from the London open. While it would be possible to continue lower as it is the average, the odds are better for movement up or sideways.

1020 I changed my bias to sideways. I marked the range from 1.3281 to 1.3321.

1035/40 when price was unable to move lower to the bottom of the range, my personal bias was up, yet I had not marked it on the chart as I considered it still in a range with upward strength.

1105, I marked the trend to be up, as price was accepted above the 50% line as trendisyourfriend explained back on March 9th.

Price stalled with a very slight reversal at my next area of resistance, yet was unable to break below the trend line. This strengthened my confidence in my bias to the upside.

Another stall at the top of the range to build for another move up.

Looking now in hindsight, when I begin trading I must keep in mind what I believe to be the future direction. Just because there are areas of support or resistance that I need to be aware of, I should expect a stall or slight pullback rather than a reversal. Feeling more confident in my abilities to identify trend and future direction of price, still need work on understanding when to consider price to be sideways or in a range from an up/down trending direction.



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 trendisyourfriend 
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I very much like your last analysis. You were very in tune with the market. That's a feeling you need to remember as it's a sign you're internalizing price action to a deeper level. One more thing you might like to observe or note is the fact price does not turn on a dime very often. Count the number of times price change direction during the day, i mean really change direction doing many swings in the opposite direction, you'll see that in most days we really see very few fundamental changes. If you intend to profit from the moves you see and not just scalp a few ticks here and there then over the long term it should help you shape your overall strategy and plan.

Happy trading and learning.

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 thewardiknowof 
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I struggled today, I just never really felt confident or sure of the direction. I marked, in hindsight the down trend that started at 0710. Drew the trend line, added fibs and marked trend change to up at the 0855 mark. Live analysis began about 0910

0915 - I was uncertain of the upward trend and changed my bias to sideways with a leaning toward the upside.
1040 - after a quick spike down trend was confirmed in my mind to up as price broke above the narrow channel.
1145 - price was again in a sideways move and it appeared to be forming a similar pattern as from 0835-1035 thus I was still bullish minded.

Looking back over the chart today, it appears that price was really in a wider range from 0700-1200 of 1.3303-1.3343. On a higher time fram (a hourly chart) it appears price has been moving between 1.3260 and 1.3360 for over a week.

I found this rather interesting. It has made me realize how narrow my focus is or has been. Also interesting to note as trendisyourfriend mentioned, how price has changed direction a lot fewer times than I really had been believing. It appears to me on the hourly chart, while the last week has been sideways, over a longer period it has been moving up and has just managed to break lower into a support area. Will support hold and price return to the range or will it break support and with acceptance start moving down?



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 thewardiknowof 
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Future direction appeared fairly straightforward today. As mentioned yesterday if price broke support and was accepted it would begin moving down. No new revelation here that all other traders did not see.

Thus, trend was down pretty much from the beginning of the London open. On my limited chart the downtren was confirmed around 0440.

0905 - average daily move was achieved, expected this to be low for my session when I began assessing the environment live at 0915

1000 - marked as being in a range from 1.3114-1.3139, which continued for the rest of my trading session.




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 thewardiknowof 
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Trend was down all day today with a range for my entire trading session. Price had exceeded average daily range and put in a bottom at 0920.

As this was when I began my live assessment, I felt price would be likely not move much lower, when in fact it did not go lower at all. I also felt it was unlikely to see a move beyond 1.3079 which it never even reached.

Thus overall I had expected price to do more or less what it did. My defined range I expected for my session was 1.3035-1.3079.

With the long weekend here in Canada I will likely not be opening charts tomorrow, so I expect that I will not post to my journal either. I will take some time for study and review.

Happy Easter to all.

Christ is risen!

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 thewardiknowof 
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Got some sort of flu on Friday, been out of commission. No trading, no posts, no watching charts often no going online. Lord willing I will be back at it tomorrow if my heads clear enough.

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 thewardiknowof 
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Feeling confused about a lot of trading things today.

Do I really understand Future Trend Direction?
Appears I, as has been suggested before by trendisyourfriend, am wanting to change my bias of trend direction too quickly and too often.

The trouble I am finding is, I am unsure of where to actually make the change. I am unsure of how to identify trend anymore. I am unsure of how I can learn this and what exercises or drills I can do to practice and improve. I am unsure of how to grade or rank myself to see if I am improving and how to set procedure goals in this area.

I will review my notes, my journals, my plan and the books I have used to come up with my current plan this evening in an attempt to come up with a concrete plan of action for my growth and improvement in determining future trend direction.

The discouragement is becoming overwhelming.


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 Big Mike 
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I encourage you to start with the simplest of things, and also start with a minimal amount of things.

So pick one, perhaps two, simple ideas within your trading you want to focus and improve on. Try to be specific. For example, maybe you need to work on not moving your stop. Big post it note "Do NOT move stop under any circumstances, ever, period, for any reason!"

Perhaps you want to work on not over trading, post it note: "Do not take more than 3 trades no matter what!".

If you lack confidence in your methodology, then it can be any number of things, but here are most common ones:

a) You have not researched, backtested and most importantly forward tested your method. Until you have a large forward tested sample size, it is impossible to have much confidence.

b) Your methodology is discretionary, but you treat it mechanically trying to remove all emotion and feel for the market.

c) Your methodology is overly complex, and impossible to execute on.

d) You are trading with money you cannot afford to lose.

e) You are not focusing, but instead are on the phone, surfing the web, watching TV, listening to a trade room, etc.

f) You are reading other traders opinions on the market, then getting confused about your own opinions.

There are solutions for each of these. First step is to identify what problem areas exist in your trading, then slowly tackle them one at a time.

As for grading, I use a simple "A-F" grading principle. The grade has nothing to do with the net profit of the day. If your goal was to not take more than 3 trades, then if you took 2 or 3 then perhaps you deserve an A. If you took 5, you deserve an F.

Keep focusing on just one or two items every single day (same items) until you have a long string of A's, at which point you can move on and add a new item.

Mike

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Big Mike View Post
...Keep focusing on just one or two items every single day (same items) until you have a long string of A's, at which point you can move on and add a new item.

Mike

I think this is what he is trying to do by focusing his attention on means to identify the market direction. So far, he seems to be doing fine but he could clarify what he thinks is not going well.

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 thewardiknowof 
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The biggest thing I see as an issue is that I really am uncertain whether I am making progress in identifying the future direction. It appears to me I am still changing my direction bias to frequently. This is also the area I am having a difficult time grading. Looking over my plan, notes, books etc. I am thinking if at the end of the day when I review where I noted direction change if was correct (in hindsight) on all changes, if I missed no changes, if I kept from adding unwarranted changes I receive an A. For each area listed I err I drop a grade. To move to another section/area of my trading to work on I must receive consistent A's (80%+ over minimum of five days).

Reviewing I feel has been a help and just thinking these things over. Tomorrow I will begin my grading of my live future direction assessment.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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The biggest thing I see as an issue is that I really am uncertain whether I am making progress in identifying the future direction. It appears to me I am still changing my direction bias to frequently. This is also the area I am having a difficult time grading. Looking over my plan, notes, books etc. I am thinking if at the end of the day when I review where I noted direction change if was correct (in hindsight) on all changes, if I missed no changes, if I kept from adding unwarranted changes I receive an A. For each area listed I err I drop a grade. To move to another section/area of my trading to work on I must receive consistent A's (80%+ over minimum of five days).

Reviewing I feel has been a help and just thinking these things over. Tomorrow I will begin my grading of my live future direction assessment.

Mike posted a comment in another thread that might help you in this department.


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 thewardiknowof 
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My overall assessment of future direction went well today and I give myself an A.

The NY session started in a downtrend and after about 40 min my bias was sideways/range.

0945 my trend bias changed to down.
1020 trend changed to up, price having been accepted above the 50% retracement from low to downtrend line.
1035 I felt confidence in uptrend as price was accepted above previous sideways area.
1140 direction bias again down. Price accepted below 50% retracement from high to uptrend line.
1150 direction confirmed with price being accepted below the uptrend line.

Looking at an hourly chart I would have said price future direction was sideways for the entire period. Also the two times I marked trend confirmations were more for my own confidence while assessing the future trend live.

Comments specifically about the change of direction from down to up and the price action from about 10-11 would be greatly appreciated.


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 loeser 
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I'm new here and try to write in English.

2 trades short at the moment based on the 123RH
Step in on the 5' chart.

1 short @ 13111

2/3 out on 21( 1.3090) pips and let runner go.
SL just above the 38.2% retrace. Stopped out

2 short @ 1.3103

2/3 out on 1.3084 and runner must do his job.
SL on 1.3095

It seems like we gonne touch the 61.8% retrace from 1.2995 to 1.3175
When we take this out we go back to 1.2995

Eur/Usd is bearish at the moment.

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 loeser 
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Turning on 1.3075 ?
Anybody has something here ?

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 loeser 
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loeser View Post
I'm new here and try to write in English.

2 trades short at the moment based on the 123RH
Step in on the 5' chart.

1 short @ 13111

2/3 out on 21( 1.3090) pips and let runner go.
SL just above the 38.2% retrace. Stopped out

2 short @ 1.3103

2/3 out on 1.3084 and runner must do his job.
SL on 1.3095

It seems like we gonne touch the 61.8% retrace from 1.2995 to 1.3175
When we take this out we go back to 1.2995

Eur/Usd is bearish at the moment.



Level 61.8% have to hold now. Otherwise, 1.2995


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 thewardiknowof 
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Today I have graded my assessment of future direction a C. I felt on my trading time frame (5 min) the trend was down from the London open which in real-time which I then changed bias to sideways at 1015 and up at 1035. Looking in hindsight I missed the direction change at 0935 to up when price was accepted above the 50% retracement to the trend line from the swing low at 0850 (for future I will refer to this as the 50% rule). Missing this change caused me to added a direction change (sideways at 1015) and thus I was late in changing to up at 1035.

Looking over an hourly chart (in hindsight) the range from 1.3098 - 1.3150 that had been going for the last day and a half had an attempt to break down at 0445. This failed when price returned to the range around 1030.





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 Big Mike 
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@loeser, you should start your own trading journal to share your thoughts in your thread.

Mike

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 thewardiknowof 
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Today's grade: A

Price was in a downtrend at the open of the New york session. Shortly after I began monitoring in real time and 10 minutes into my trading session (0940 EST) a 50% rule triggered a trend bias change to up. A second 50% rule occurred at 1105 changing my trend bias back to down.

In hindsight, I correctly identified all areas of future direction bias change without missing any or adding any that never happened.

I was a little uncomfortable with the 1105 change yet marked it. Time showed this was a correct trend change location.

Reviewing in hindsight, my higher timeframe (hourly) chart it appears to me price is still in a trading range from 1.3105 - 1.3147 (narrowed slightly from 1.3098 - 1.3150). There was an attempt to break out again to the downside at 0720 returning to the range at 0940. The range began Monday with two significant attempts to break out to the downside, both times returning to the range after testing the 1.3067 area.





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 Nicolas11 
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Hi,

Congratulations for your journal, which is very interesting!
(and thanks to @trendisyourfriend for his insightful contribution)

Wish you the best,

Nicolas

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 thewardiknowof 
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Today's Future Direction Assessment grade: A

I feel I deserve an A today as I was able to identify accurately the future direction and all changes without missing or adding any unwarranted changes.

The London session opened and broke out beginning to trend up around 0400. At 0740 price confirmed it was in a period of consolidation which had a range from 1.3155-1.3206, and this is how the New York session began. I began my real-time analysis around 0900 and noticed the range started to tighten and it then confirmed to be narrower 1.3182-1.3206 at 0915, entering my trading session in this tighter range. At 1005 the trend up resumed for a short period and entered again into a period of sideways consolidation which confirmed at 1125 lasting for the rest of my trading session.




In hindsight, looking over the higher time frame price was entered an uptrend shortly after the London open and remained up for the entire time of my analysis.




Grading for the week on Future Direction in 4 days of grading including today, I had 3 A's and 1 C.

As much as I want to get on with it and move to the next step, I understand 4 days is hardly enough to show I have a solid grasp of assessing future direction. It's hard to be patient sometimes.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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 thewardiknowof 
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Today's Future Direction Assessment grade: A

Reviewing my days assessment of future direction I was able to identify all changes while live. My change to sideways at 0935 was a little questionable. I feel it could have been a change to up then, but according to how I define a sideways range I felt it was more appropriate. the same thing happened at the 1120 change. At this time I chose to make it sideways as price had returned to the previous range. This was then confirmed at 1155.

There were no unwarranted or missing changes today.



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 thewardiknowof 
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Today's grade: A

I was able to correctly assess a changes of direction without missing or adding unwarranted changes.

At about 0900 I began my review and assessment. I marked the direction becoming sideways beginning at 0350 with the range being from 1.3153-1.3180. The New York session began in the range testing the bottom at 0850. real-time assessment began and went as follows:
0930 -direction changed to UP, price having broke the top resistance and price was accepted to the upside.
1105 -I determined price was again in a sideways range between 1.3191-1.3212.
Price stayed in the range for the rest of my trading session.




I would ask, if anyone sees this different than I have, sees direction changes I missed or that are unwarranted please let me know. Thank you.

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 Big Mike 
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thewardiknowof View Post
Today's grade: A

I was able to correctly assess a changes of direction without missing or adding unwarranted changes.



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 thewardiknowof 
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Future Direction grade: A

Thankfully today I was again able to correctly assess future direction without adding unwarranted changes
or missing any. I am feeling pleased and more confident in this area. Thanks to trendisyourfriend for encouraging me to focus on this as well as giving me some guidance. Much appreciated.

My assessment was as follows:

In hindsight:
0300 -the London session began in an uptrend direction.
0730 -trend changed to down.
0855 -trend changed to sideways (1.3196-1.3222).

Real time assessment began:
0910 -test of the upper range boundary
0950 -a second test of the upper boundary.
1010 -the lower range boundary was tested.
1025 -price broke out to the downside and was accepted. Trend now down.
1125 -price moved back into the
1.3196-1.3222 range. Direction changed to sideways with an upward bias.
1225 -I stopped my live analysis.




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 thewardiknowof 
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Today's grade: A

Very encouraged by today's results. I was able again to identify direction changes, keep from missing changes or adding unwarranted changes. I understand this is a small part of trading and I have a long way to go. Yet this is a step in the right direction with which I am pleased.

Today's analysis was as follows:

In hindsight:
0325 -price began an upward push, trend is UP.
0450 -trend changed to DOWN as per the 50% rule.
0530 -trend confirmed DOWN breaking the prior swing low.
0735 -trend change to SIDEWAYS with range of 1.3200-1.3218 (I used 1.3222 the nearby resistance).
0800 -upper end of range was tested.
0845 -bottom of the range tested.

Real time analysis began at 0910
0930 -top of the range tested for a second time.
1005 -price breaks out of the range with strength to the upside, trend UP.
1055 -trend changed to DOWN as per 50% rule.
1205 -testing support.
1235 -stopped analysis for the day.

Next week, I will be away for holidays, so no posting. When I return I am going to begin adding analysis of strength and weakness to the charts when, currently unsure exactly how I am going to do this. Suggestions welcome.



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 thewardiknowof 
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Today's grade: A

Again I was pleased with my analysis of future direction, which went as follows:

In hindsight:
0320 -trend UP 50% rule.
0720 -direction change to sideways range 1.3218-1.3242.
0830 -break out to the upside, trend UP.

Real time analysis began at 0915:
1005 -trend change to range again from 1.3242-1.3270 and stayed such for the rest of my live analysis.

Have a great weekend everyone and best of trading next week.


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 thewardiknowof 
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Back from holiday's and took it a little slow today, grade: A.

I was very encouraged with the results of the future direction assessment.

In hindsight:

0815 -trend is down

Real-time analysis began at 0910

0930 -sideways direction change signaled, because of weakness I kept as downtrend.
1135 -direction changed to up.

Still trying to decide on how to mark and grade my identification and use of strength/weakness.



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 thewardiknowof 
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Today's grade: A

I was able to assess future direction identifying all changes when in real-time and kept from adding unwarranted direction changes.

The 0630 direction change to down was because of weakness, although this was done in hindsight as I began real-time analysis at 0915 today.

When range changed to sideways at 0930 I felt the top of the range was 1.2950-1.2955 so I marked both.




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 thewardiknowof 
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Today's Future Trend Direction grade: A

Real-time analysis today began at 0910. At that time trend was UP and forming the boundaries for the sideways trend which began at 1015. I identified the range from 1.2949 - 1.2977.

It appears to me I successfully identified ALL direction changes during my live analysis without including any unwarranted changes.

I plan on continuing posting and grading my future direction analysis until I decide how to include real-time strength/weakness analysis on my charts. I am also considering beginning to add areas of trade opportunity, I identify, to my charts next week and grading them as well.




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 thewardiknowof 
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I feel confident in my ability to assess future trend direction.

Today's Future Trend Direction grade: A

In hindsight I marked the trend as in a sideways range at 2240 yesterday. The range I felt was from 1.2904 to 1.2943, but with an area of supply at 1.2947 I used that as the upper boundary of the range. There were of course trend within the range, although not marked on the chart. I was able to identify them correctly while analyzing in real-time. There were no other direction changes as price stayed in the upper portion of the range.

As mentioned yesterday I will begin marking
areas of trade opportunity (according to my method and plan) I identify beginning Monday. Grading will be done at the end of my trading session. If I identified ALL areas of trading opportunity while in real-time without missing any or adding invalid opportunities I receive an A. For each opportunity area missed, identified incorrectly or invalid area added I drop a grade.

After I feel confident that I am correctly identifying areas of trading opportunity, and consistently getting A's, I will move on to the next step (a minimum of two weeks).

Again, any suggestions, thoughts or comments regarding this or my charts are welcome and encouraged!

To all the mother's, HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY!!



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 thewardiknowof 
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I have come into a snag. Friday I was notified by Oanda that I must be an Accredited Investor (have over one million in net assets, earn over $200k /year) in order to trade forex (and futures) in Alberta, Canada. I have been spending time trying to resolve this issue. After contacting ASC (Alberta Securities Commission), I verified this to be true. As Oanda is under Canadian Regulations, this would apply to all their Canadian accounts. I am now looking into my options. Any suggestions would be great, I need help!

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 trendisyourfriend 
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As far as i am concerned you don't have a lot of choices unless you try to open an account with a foreign country but i would not recommend it. You could also try to ask an exemption to the ASC. In Ontario or Quebec we do not have this type of limitation.

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 bnichols 
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I have come into a snag. Friday I was notified by Oanda that I must be an Accredited Investor (have over one million in net assets, earn over $200k /year) in order to trade forex (and futures) in Alberta, Canada. I have been spending time trying to resolve this issue. After contacting ASC (Alberta Securities Commission), I verified this to be true. As Oanda is under Canadian Regulations, this would apply to all their Canadian accounts. I am now looking into my options. Any suggestions would be great, I need help!

I'm also Canadian and use Interactive Brokers (Canada) for spot Forex, mostly because I already had an account with them for stock trading, partly because IB is supported by NinjaTrader. 2 issues may be the data feed is sampled and historical tick data is not available. As I recall IB's financial criteria may not be as steep as Onana, minimum initial account size is $10,000.

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 acbrasil 
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thewardiknowof View Post
I have come into a snag. Friday I was notified by Oanda that I must be an Accredited Investor (have over one million in net assets, earn over $200k /year) in order to trade forex (and futures) in Alberta, Canada. I have been spending time trying to resolve this issue. After contacting ASC (Alberta Securities Commission), I verified this to be true. As Oanda is under Canadian Regulations, this would apply to all their Canadian accounts. I am now looking into my options. Any suggestions would be great, I need help!

That's just crazy! To trade FOREX!

Look at Thinkforex. Their spreads are similar to Oanda.. maybe just slightly higher, but you can get a rebate of $3/lot. Dukascopy is really good, but their java platform takes some getting used to. Dukas is even better than Oanda, IMHO.

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