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Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal


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Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal

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  #71 (permalink)
Belgium/Antwerp
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: Eur/Usd, s&p, DAX, DOW
 
Posts: 20 since Apr 2012
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loeser View Post
I'm new here and try to write in English.

2 trades short at the moment based on the 123RH
Step in on the 5' chart.

1 short @ 13111

2/3 out on 21( 1.3090) pips and let runner go.
SL just above the 38.2% retrace. Stopped out

2 short @ 1.3103

2/3 out on 1.3084 and runner must do his job.
SL on 1.3095

It seems like we gonne touch the 61.8% retrace from 1.2995 to 1.3175
When we take this out we go back to 1.2995

Eur/Usd is bearish at the moment.



Level 61.8% have to hold now. Otherwise, 1.2995


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  #72 (permalink)
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Today I have graded my assessment of future direction a C. I felt on my trading time frame (5 min) the trend was down from the London open which in real-time which I then changed bias to sideways at 1015 and up at 1035. Looking in hindsight I missed the direction change at 0935 to up when price was accepted above the 50% retracement to the trend line from the swing low at 0850 (for future I will refer to this as the 50% rule). Missing this change caused me to added a direction change (sideways at 1015) and thus I was late in changing to up at 1035.

Looking over an hourly chart (in hindsight) the range from 1.3098 - 1.3150 that had been going for the last day and a half had an attempt to break down at 0445. This failed when price returned to the range around 1030.





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  #73 (permalink)
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@loeser, you should start your own trading journal to share your thoughts in your thread.

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  #74 (permalink)
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
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Today's grade: A

Price was in a downtrend at the open of the New york session. Shortly after I began monitoring in real time and 10 minutes into my trading session (0940 EST) a 50% rule triggered a trend bias change to up. A second 50% rule occurred at 1105 changing my trend bias back to down.

In hindsight, I correctly identified all areas of future direction bias change without missing any or adding any that never happened.

I was a little uncomfortable with the 1105 change yet marked it. Time showed this was a correct trend change location.

Reviewing in hindsight, my higher timeframe (hourly) chart it appears to me price is still in a trading range from 1.3105 - 1.3147 (narrowed slightly from 1.3098 - 1.3150). There was an attempt to break out again to the downside at 0720 returning to the range at 0940. The range began Monday with two significant attempts to break out to the downside, both times returning to the range after testing the 1.3067 area.





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  #75 (permalink)
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Hi,

Congratulations for your journal, which is very interesting!
(and thanks to @trendisyourfriend for his insightful contribution)

Wish you the best,

Nicolas

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  #76 (permalink)
Edmonton, Alberta Canada
 
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Today's Future Direction Assessment grade: A

I feel I deserve an A today as I was able to identify accurately the future direction and all changes without missing or adding any unwarranted changes.

The London session opened and broke out beginning to trend up around 0400. At 0740 price confirmed it was in a period of consolidation which had a range from 1.3155-1.3206, and this is how the New York session began. I began my real-time analysis around 0900 and noticed the range started to tighten and it then confirmed to be narrower 1.3182-1.3206 at 0915, entering my trading session in this tighter range. At 1005 the trend up resumed for a short period and entered again into a period of sideways consolidation which confirmed at 1125 lasting for the rest of my trading session.




In hindsight, looking over the higher time frame price was entered an uptrend shortly after the London open and remained up for the entire time of my analysis.




Grading for the week on Future Direction in 4 days of grading including today, I had 3 A's and 1 C.

As much as I want to get on with it and move to the next step, I understand 4 days is hardly enough to show I have a solid grasp of assessing future direction. It's hard to be patient sometimes.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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  #77 (permalink)
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Today's Future Direction Assessment grade: A

Reviewing my days assessment of future direction I was able to identify all changes while live. My change to sideways at 0935 was a little questionable. I feel it could have been a change to up then, but according to how I define a sideways range I felt it was more appropriate. the same thing happened at the 1120 change. At this time I chose to make it sideways as price had returned to the previous range. This was then confirmed at 1155.

There were no unwarranted or missing changes today.



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  #78 (permalink)
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Today's grade: A

I was able to correctly assess a changes of direction without missing or adding unwarranted changes.

At about 0900 I began my review and assessment. I marked the direction becoming sideways beginning at 0350 with the range being from 1.3153-1.3180. The New York session began in the range testing the bottom at 0850. real-time assessment began and went as follows:
0930 -direction changed to UP, price having broke the top resistance and price was accepted to the upside.
1105 -I determined price was again in a sideways range between 1.3191-1.3212.
Price stayed in the range for the rest of my trading session.




I would ask, if anyone sees this different than I have, sees direction changes I missed or that are unwarranted please let me know. Thank you.

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  #79 (permalink)
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thewardiknowof View Post
Today's grade: A

I was able to correctly assess a changes of direction without missing or adding unwarranted changes.



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  #80 (permalink)
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Future Direction grade: A

Thankfully today I was again able to correctly assess future direction without adding unwarranted changes
or missing any. I am feeling pleased and more confident in this area. Thanks to trendisyourfriend for encouraging me to focus on this as well as giving me some guidance. Much appreciated.

My assessment was as follows:

In hindsight:
0300 -the London session began in an uptrend direction.
0730 -trend changed to down.
0855 -trend changed to sideways (1.3196-1.3222).

Real time assessment began:
0910 -test of the upper range boundary
0950 -a second test of the upper boundary.
1010 -the lower range boundary was tested.
1025 -price broke out to the downside and was accepted. Trend now down.
1125 -price moved back into the
1.3196-1.3222 range. Direction changed to sideways with an upward bias.
1225 -I stopped my live analysis.




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May 14, 2012


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