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Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal


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Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal

  #51 (permalink)
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thewardiknowof View Post
All times mentioned are Eastern Time Zone and my trading session is from 0930 to 1230. Trends are as they appear on my Trading Time Frame (TTF)

At 0555 the trend turned to DOWN and continued down until 0845 when the direction changed to UP. Ten minutes into my trading session at 0940 I marked the change to sideways in which it continued for my entire trading session.

Upon hindsight review, it appears my assessment of future direction was accurate. Rather straightforward in my view with only one change of trend while live.

I highlighted the sideways range at 0940 and kept extending it right as price stayed in the range.

You are right. There was not much action today on the US session. Me too was looking for opportunities at 1.3350 or 1.3325.

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  #52 (permalink)
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Wednesday, March 28, 2012

London markets opened still in a 50 pip sideways range between 1.3312 to 1.3362. An hour and ten minutes later price attempted to breakout to the upside but was quickly rejected. Trend then continued in the range with a downside bias. Just before 0900 there was a strong attempt to break out of the range to the downside, price tried to return into the range a couple times but it was only temporary, creating an down trend at about 1000. Then at 1155 (according to my trend determining rules) the trend it was marked as another sideways range with an upward bias. I think the chart is a little clearer than my explanation.



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  #53 (permalink)
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Thursday, March 29,,2012


In hindsight the London session opened after a test of resistance and confirmed a sideways range about 20 minutes in. A test of the top of the range and price began gaining strength to the downside. About two hours after the London open price broke out of the range to the downside, confirming a downtrend five minutes later.
While live I saw and marked the trend as being sideways again at 0925 EST (time on charts is MST). Price then continued in the a range between 1.3256 and 1.3287 for my entire trading session. In hindsight a more conservative confirmation for trend change to sideways would have been around 1045 EST. I did not expect price to break any lower as it had already moved about 95% of the average daily range, thus I felt comfortable in identifying the range at my earlier point.




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  #54 (permalink)
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Friday, Maarch 30, 2012

NY session began in a sideways range from 1.3328-1.3356 with a downside bias. Price stayed in the range until 1035 when it boke out to the downside, becoming a downtrend. At about 1115 I marked the trend as sideways again. Price had moved back into the 1.3328-1.3356 area now with an upward bias.

In hind sight it appears I was to eager to consider trend down. There was a downward swing which had some strength, although there was no real follow through, as it moved back into the range within 30-40 minutes.

Unsure how to have seen this coming and not considered the trend to have changed to down. Any thoughts or suggestions on this are welcome.

Tomorrow, I will attempt to post my goal for next week.



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  #55 (permalink)
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

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C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

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Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

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  #56 (permalink)
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My journaling experience to date


Big Mike View Post
A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

  • it made me review my trades each daily, a least a little.
  • it became obvious I don't even know, the areas I am struggling in and am blind to some of my weaknesses.
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  • some accountability was felt.
  • realized, I have a lot of work to do to become consistently profitable.

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B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

  • I had slacked off in my review process laid out in my trading plan.
  • my actions often are opposite of my intentions, words and goals.
  • I am easily sidetracked.
  • my trading plan needs to be simplified.
  • adoption of new ideas (good or bad) into my strategy, without testing them myself to find out if they work in my plan happens to easily.

Big Mike View Post
C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

Reluctance was not and issue. Just making it a priority and also deciding where to begin journaling online.


Big Mike View Post
D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

Journaling online (particularly here at futures.io (formerly BMT)) has helped me to grow as a trader. The fact that there are others on futures.io (formerly BMT) that are willing to share their trading wisdom, are willing to be straightforward makes me wish I had discovered this site a long time ago. Just the fact I don't know, what I don't know, and having some light shed on some of these issues of my has made it very, very worthwhile.


Big Mike View Post
E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Yes, I would definitely recommend others start a trading journal immediately. I have been encouraging all traders I meet to come to futures.io (formerly BMT) and begin a trading journal. It really does not matter what sort of experience a person has, I feel it would be beneficial to everyone. As for downside, I have yet to find any.



Thank you Mike for starting this site!

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  #57 (permalink)
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Monday, April 02,2012

While it was not posted Saturday, I am continuing to focus on trend /future direction identification this week.

Today, a couple hours after the London open I marked the trend as being steadily down. This continued until about the time my trading session started (this was in hindsight).

The following was identified live, beginning at about 10-15 minutes before my trading session with my overall assessment that I was expecting either a stall and price to continue sideways for most or all of the day, or the trend to reverse as the average daily range had already been covered from the London open. While it would be possible to continue lower as it is the average, the odds are better for movement up or sideways.

1020 I changed my bias to sideways. I marked the range from 1.3281 to 1.3321.

1035/40 when price was unable to move lower to the bottom of the range, my personal bias was up, yet I had not marked it on the chart as I considered it still in a range with upward strength.

1105, I marked the trend to be up, as price was accepted above the 50% line as trendisyourfriend explained back on March 9th.

Price stalled with a very slight reversal at my next area of resistance, yet was unable to break below the trend line. This strengthened my confidence in my bias to the upside.

Another stall at the top of the range to build for another move up.

Looking now in hindsight, when I begin trading I must keep in mind what I believe to be the future direction. Just because there are areas of support or resistance that I need to be aware of, I should expect a stall or slight pullback rather than a reversal. Feeling more confident in my abilities to identify trend and future direction of price, still need work on understanding when to consider price to be sideways or in a range from an up/down trending direction.



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  #58 (permalink)
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I very much like your last analysis. You were very in tune with the market. That's a feeling you need to remember as it's a sign you're internalizing price action to a deeper level. One more thing you might like to observe or note is the fact price does not turn on a dime very often. Count the number of times price change direction during the day, i mean really change direction doing many swings in the opposite direction, you'll see that in most days we really see very few fundamental changes. If you intend to profit from the moves you see and not just scalp a few ticks here and there then over the long term it should help you shape your overall strategy and plan.

Happy trading and learning.

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  #59 (permalink)
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Tuesday, April 03, 2012

I struggled today, I just never really felt confident or sure of the direction. I marked, in hindsight the down trend that started at 0710. Drew the trend line, added fibs and marked trend change to up at the 0855 mark. Live analysis began about 0910

0915 - I was uncertain of the upward trend and changed my bias to sideways with a leaning toward the upside.
1040 - after a quick spike down trend was confirmed in my mind to up as price broke above the narrow channel.
1145 - price was again in a sideways move and it appeared to be forming a similar pattern as from 0835-1035 thus I was still bullish minded.

Looking back over the chart today, it appears that price was really in a wider range from 0700-1200 of 1.3303-1.3343. On a higher time fram (a hourly chart) it appears price has been moving between 1.3260 and 1.3360 for over a week.

I found this rather interesting. It has made me realize how narrow my focus is or has been. Also interesting to note as trendisyourfriend mentioned, how price has changed direction a lot fewer times than I really had been believing. It appears to me on the hourly chart, while the last week has been sideways, over a longer period it has been moving up and has just managed to break lower into a support area. Will support hold and price return to the range or will it break support and with acceptance start moving down?



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  #60 (permalink)
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Wednesday, April 04, 2012


Future direction appeared fairly straightforward today. As mentioned yesterday if price broke support and was accepted it would begin moving down. No new revelation here that all other traders did not see.

Thus, trend was down pretty much from the beginning of the London open. On my limited chart the downtren was confirmed around 0440.

0905 - average daily move was achieved, expected this to be low for my session when I began assessing the environment live at 0915

1000 - marked as being in a range from 1.3114-1.3139, which continued for the rest of my trading session.




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