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Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal
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Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal

  #41 (permalink)
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Wednesday March 21, 2012

Failed in achieving my weekly goal for today's trades. last two trades I never waited for TTF setup. Surprise, surprise they were both negative. No more dropping to LTF for rest of the week.

Three trades:

Trade 1: SHORT -Pull Back (PB) setup
Entry:1.32311
STOP: 1.324
T1: 1.32221
T2: 1.31861

Trend was moving sideways in a downtrend. As price moved near the top the the sideways area and formed a bearish bar on the TTF, I dropped down to the LTF and when I saw the doji at the top I entered short at the close of the following bear candle. Trade slowly moved down and I was alerted to upcoming news. I then exited my trade three minutes before the HIGH impact news release.
RESULTS= +10 pips

Trade 2:LONG -Complex Pull Back (CPB) setup -invalid
Entry: 1.32363
STOP: 1.323
T1: 1.32523
T2: 1.32663

I felt the trend had changed to up. Price began pulling back and formed a bullish candle at which point I moved to the LTF to look for an entry trigger. Price continued moving lower and broke the low of the bull candle, I assumed it was going to be then a CPB not a PB. I then entered with what I thought was a two-bar rule trigger. I realized it realized it wasn't and made the mistake thinking it would work out anyway. Four minutes later was stooped out of the trade.
RESULTS= -12 pips

Trade 3:LONG -Test (TST) setup -invalid
Entry: 1.31914
STOP: 1.31815
T1: 1.32044
T2: 1.32334

With the trend down, price began slowing as it approached support. Without waiting for a setup on TTF I dropped to the LTF and entered long on the close of the bull candle following the bullish dragonfly doji. Price began up then reversed shortly after. Had an opportunity to exit with a small loss when price did not make a higher high after the drop. Instead I held it to be stopped out.
RESULTS= -20 pips

Trade one was managed proper and according to plan. Trade two I began by waiting for a TTF setup, but rather than moving back to TTF when it did not trigger as expected, I stayed on the LTF. Trade three was off the LTF without waiting for a setup.
TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= -22 pips

Attached Thumbnails
Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-21-ltf-oanda.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-21-ttf.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-21-htf.jpg  
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  #42 (permalink)
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thewardiknowof,

I think you are trying to do too much mental processing, that is, ongoing analysis + identifying trading areas/setups + managing the trade. This is just too much for someone that starts. Focus on one aspect and master it before adding one more task. At first sight, you seem to have a problem to anticipate the potential future direction. You also have some difficulties to spot weakness and strength and assess what it means in the developing context. So given these considerations, why not take one baby step and start from there. Forget about trying to find the next opportunity, instead focus all your effort and attention to get a more accurate assessment of likely future price direction. Just that as your primary objective. This will probably lower your stress and help you have a clearer mind. Think about how you could achieve this objective and how to measure it as objectively as possible. Once you feel you have mastered this aspect to some extent then add another step, identifying an area to trade. Again, no need to place a trade or see any particular setup but just focusing on the task of identifying a good area to make business. etc etc.

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  #43 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Forget about trying to find the next opportunity, instead focus all your effort and attention to get a more accurate assessment of likely future price direction. Just that as your primary objective..

Your suggestion is greatly appreciated. I am going to take your recommendation.


trendisyourfriend View Post
Think about how you could achieve this objective and how to measure it as objectively as possible.

Tomorrow I will detail specific steps with an to more accurately assess likely future direction with a method to measure my progress objectively. This plan I will post for any suggestions, comments and/or critiques anyone would be willing to give.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Thursday March 22, 2012

No trades today, as suggested by trendisyourfriend. I am posting the days three charts (LTF,TTF,HTF). The TTF has been marked up with trend direction and areas of interest as trendisyourfriend explained to me earlier.

I have yet to come up with specific steps as to how to determine future direction and a method to measure my progress objectively. Still working on it and will attempt to post it here today.

Suggestions on where to look into to this are welcome.

Ward

Attached Thumbnails
Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-22-ltf-oanda.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-22-ttf.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-22-htf.jpg  
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  #45 (permalink)
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Firday, March 23,2012

I will be away today, thus no charts, no trading, no plan/steps or goals today. I will take some time and continue posting Monday.

Ward

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  #46 (permalink)
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thewardiknowof View Post
I will be away today, thus no charts, no trading, no plan/steps or goals today. I will take some time and continue posting Monday.

Ward





Mike

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  #47 (permalink)
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Trading NOT to lose

Some things I have decided to do to help keep me from trading NOT to lose:
1. Upon entering each trade I will mentally write a cheque for the cost of doing business for the trade.
2. Place a rule in my trading plan for maximum number of unprofitable trades allowed in a row in a session before I stop trading for the session.
3. Place a rule in my trading plan for maximum number of unprofitable trades in the same direction allowed in a session before I stop trading for the session.
4. Place a rule in my trading plan for maximum number of unprofitable trades allowed in a session before I stop trading for the session.
5. Place a rule in my trading plan that if I have a loss or break one of the above rules, I will stop trading for the session and take two days off, staying away from the markets completely.
6. Continue researching "fear of loss" or fear of losing" and implement new rules, ideas and suggestions that will assist in having success in my trading.

Definitions:
1. Loss: a loss is when I look at a trade in hindsight and the trade was exited at a place worse than where it reasonably and logically showed that my premise for entering the trade was wrong.
2. Cost of Doing Business or Risk: the amount that would be removed from my account if a trade was exited negatively, yet before creating a loss (as defined above).

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  #48 (permalink)
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Future Direction

To define future direction I will do the following:
1. Use YTC PAT method of defining trends.
2. If I am uncertain of the trend, use the prior suggestion by trendisyourfriend to further define up/down trends.
3. If still uncertain I will add ema (15) and ema (20) and consider trend to be in the direction of the ema cross.
4. I will highlight areas and add arrows and comments on TTF charts to indicate my assessment of future direction while live.
5. I will review in hindsight how well I did in defining trend and assessing future direction. If incorrect in areas, I will then study to see why I made the choices I did, why I misinterpreted direction and place my comments on a second chart.
6. Once I am consistent in correctly defining future direction, I will decide on a second area of my trading to focus on improving.

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  #49 (permalink)
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Monday, March 26,2012

As mentioned today I was focusing on future direction. Trend was in a sideways range at the beginning of my session. It then broke out to the upside with one strong 5 min bull bar then again began moving sideways for the rest of my trading session. Comments and critiques welcome.

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I have also attached my HTF chart

Attached Thumbnails
Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-26-htf.jpg  
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  #50 (permalink)
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Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

Tuesday March 27, 2012


All times mentioned are Eastern Time Zone and my trading session is from 0930 to 1230. Trends are as they appear on my Trading Time Frame (TTF)

At 0555 the trend turned to DOWN and continued down until 0845 when the direction changed to UP. Ten minutes into my trading session at 0940 I marked the change to sideways in which it continued for my entire trading session.

Upon hindsight review, it appears my assessment of future direction was accurate. Rather straightforward in my view with only one change of trend while live.

I highlighted the sideways range at 0940 and kept extending it right as price stayed in the range.

Attached Thumbnails
Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-27-trend-fd.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-27-htf.jpg  
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