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Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal
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Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal

  #31 (permalink)
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Wednesday March 14,2012

Had a tough time today discerning trend and felt confused about trade setups. The first trade is clear evidence of this.

Two trades today:

Trade ONE: SHORT
Entry:1.30416
STOP: 1.30700
T1: 1.30316
T2: none

Trend was DOWN and price started pulling back. I moved to LTF and saw what I thought to be the end of the PB SAME MISTAKE AS YESTERDAY used an engulfing candle as entry trigger. This was an INVALID setup. On TTF there was no clear price action indication of a PB, I was guessing. What made this trade worse was I entered a huge STOP and small target! Even worse, I never implemented the 75% recovery rule. I never adhered to my plan at all. I think the biggest problem with this trade is it ended profitable.
RESULTS= +20 pips

I took a 15 min time out away from the screen and came back placing one more trade.

Trade TWO: SHORT
Entry: 1.30290
STOP: 1.30410
T1: 1.30210
T2: 1.30010

Trend was DOWN still never waited for TTF to show me the setup. This appears to be a problem area for me. Achieved T1 after 16 min +8 pips. Did follow my trailing STOP method and was STOPPED out of part two for +4 pips 29 min after entry.
RESULTS= +12 pips

TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= +32 pips

Attached Thumbnails
Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-14-ltf-oanda.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-14-ttf.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-14-htf.jpg  
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  #32 (permalink)
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Thursday March 15, 2102

First, I would like to apologize to @trendisyourfriend for not following his advice or following my plan yesterday. For all the time, effort and help given to, this was disrespectful and I apologize.

Back to following my trading plan today. Waited until after the release of the Philly Fed (10:30 EST) before trading. Market moving sideways from beginning of my trading session to this point, but in an overall UP trend.

Two trades:

Trade ONE: SHORT (counter-trend)
Entry:1.30732
STOP: 1.30832
T1: 1.30632
T2: n/a

Trend broke out of the sideways action in the UP direction, when I saw price turn down on the TTF I moved to my LTF chart and entered SHORT at LWP. Appears I was a little to greedy, price just missed my target and I exited at b/e as this was a counter-trend trade so I expected the move UP to continue.
RESULTS= 0 pips (scratch)

Trade TWO:LONG
Entry: 1.30679
STOP: 1.30590
T1: 1.30779
T2: 1.30879

Felt trend was still UP, price pulled back to where it broke out of the sideways price action and downward momentum was weakening. I moved to LTF and entered LONG on a BPB setup with a hammer candle trigger. T1 was achieved ( +10 pips) after 10 minutes. Did trail my STOP using SL's on TTF. Was difficult, still unsure if this is the best way. Hard to watch a trade come back to b/e or go negative after achieving the first target. Stuck to the plan. After 54 minutes I exited the trade when price came within 2 pips of T2 and then begin to turn against me for +14 pips. Thought maybe I was being greedy.
RESULTS= +24 pips

TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= +24 pips

Attached Thumbnails
Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-15-ltf-oanda.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-15-ttf.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-15-htf.jpg  
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  #33 (permalink)
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thewardiknowof View Post
First, I would like to apologize to @trendisyourfriend for not following his advice or following my plan yesterday. For all the time, effort and help given to, this was disrespectful and I apologize.
...

Please, don't apologize, i am a student just like anybody else. As for my advices take them cum grano salis (with a grain of salt) and a bit of skepticism.

About your first trade, my opinion is that it was a bit risky or the potential reward too low. Price had just broke above a level of resistance with some strength considering the previous price action. Alway fade weakness not strength. The expectation was for a pull back to the level just broken and continuation to the next resistance.

As a rule of thumb when price forms a range that looks like a pennant, you can make an educated guess as to the target if price breaks outside the pattern. In an up-trend, the targeted move is measured from the start point of the trend (the breakout point at the base of the trend or most recent congestion pattern) to the highest high recorded in the flag or pennant pattern. The move is then projected up from the point of breakout (from the flag or pennant pattern), to arrive at the target.

In all fairness, i prefer to look at a prior resistance or support than relying on a projected move. If you have both then what else can we ask. Seriously, there was some resistance to the left (yellow rectangle).

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  #34 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
About your first trade, my opinion is that it was a bit risky or the potential reward too low. Price had just broke above a level of resistance with some strength considering the previous price action. Alway fade weakness not strength. The expectation was for a pull back to the level just broken and continuation to the next resistance.

I agree, it was a risky trade. What do you do regarding news? As I mentioned I stood aside until the Philly Fed was released, in my plan unless I am in a trade and fairly profitable I do not trade for a bout 5 min before and after what forex factory classifies as HIGH impact news.

Another question for you or anyone that can offer suggestions, how do you manage your trades once profitable?

Ward

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  #35 (permalink)
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Friday March 16, 2012

Stuck to my plan and achieved my weekly goal of following my exit strategy. Still think there is a better way for exiting second part of my trades. Need to research to find a better approach.

Two trades:

Trade ONE: LONG -Pull Back setup
Entry:1.31733
STOP: 1.31660
T1: 1.31813
T2: 1.32213

Trend was clearly up UP the TTF showed a slight PB prior to next resistance level. When price began to move up again I entered long after the LTF harami candle. After 17 min the first target was achieved +8 pips, the following 5 min candle moved up again and I moved my stop to b/e (not technically according to my plan as I should have waited for price to make a higher swing. Began seeing weakness and another 13 min and the second part of the trade was stopped out at b/e.
RESULTS= +8 pips

Trade TWO:SHORT -TST setup
Entry: 1.31775
STOP: 1.31900
T1: 1.31645
T2: 1.31425

While the trend was still UP, price was showing weakness and it was right at a supply zone. when I saw a 123 double top forming on the TTF I dropped to the LTF and entered short on the break below the doji. My better entry would have been four minutes later on the close of the bearing engulfing candle. This trade felt long and grueling, I wanted to exit multiple times, particularly when price came withing two ticks of my first target then retraced. I did hang in there and after 56 min was rewarded with the achievement of T1 for +13 pips. All the while trailing my stop 2 pips above the swing highs, eventually being stopped out for +1 pip.
RESULTS= +14 pips

TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= +22 pips

This day I felt very uncomfortable trading. I never felt confident in either trade. It was very taxing on me mentally. Was a successful day though as I followed my plan.
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Attached Thumbnails
Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-16-ttf.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-16-htf.jpg  
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  #36 (permalink)
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Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

Weekly Trading Goal

My goal for the week of March 19-24 is to go through the Elusive Price Action: How to Trade thread and determine how much time would be required by me, to view & study for comprehension the entire thread. Then set out a plan to accomplish this.

Second, search futures.io (formerly BMT) and highlight threads applicable to managing profitable trades, listing out ideas and methods.

Third, wait for setups on TTF before dropping to the LTF or take the trades for the TTF.

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  #37 (permalink)
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Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

No trading today, as per trading plan health clause.

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  #38 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Favorite Futures: Forex
 
Posts: 88 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 199 given, 51 received

Tuesday, March 20,2012

Completely out of tune today. Did take four trades three for loss and one a scratch.

Trade 1: SHORT -PB setup
Entry:1.31935
STOP:1.32034
T1:1.31835
T2:1.31585

I was still thinking trend was down, completely forgot how to determine trend so went short at LWP. Trade was stopped out for -20 pips.
RESULTS= -20 pips

Trade 2: SHORT -TST setup
Entry:1.32265
STOP:1.3237
T1:1.32065
T2:1.31865

Trend was up, I went counter-trend thinking direction was reversing at area of resistance. On LTF a double top trigger was my entry and six minutes later the trade was stopped out for -21 pips.
RESULTS= -21 pips

Trade 3: SHORT -BOF setup
Entry:1.32364
STOP:1.3247
T1:1.3226
T2:1.321864

Trend remained up and I again went counter-trend. Thinking the trend was weakening on LTF I again entered short on a double top. This trade, when I saw inability to break lower on another movement down I exited the trade when the doji formed for a scratch of + 1 pips.
RESULTS= +1 pips

Trade 4: LONG -flag setup
Entry:1.3239
STOP:1.322
T1:1.3254
T2:1.3269

I felt a flag had formed and entered long after the doji that caused my exit of trade three. Targets were then calculated as per flag measured move. T1 was half way. I was trading not to have another loss and thus set the stop way down to below my resistance line. Forgot about my catastrophic loss rule and ended the day with a huge loss of -40 pips.
RESULTS= -40 pips.

Overall, in hindsight I should have not been trading today as it appears my thinking was still unclear. This was a day when I should have been asking for a second opinion as to my mental clarity.

TOTAL SESSION RESULTS= -80 pips

Will I EVER learn????

Attached Thumbnails
Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-20-ltf-oanda.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-20-ttf.jpg   Ward's EUR/USD spot fx journal-20-htf.jpg  
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  #39 (permalink)
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thewardiknowof View Post
Overall, in hindsight I should have not been trading today as it appears my thinking was still unclear. This was a day when I should have been asking for a second opinion as to my mental clarity.

Will I EVER learn????

What very specific steps will you take to improve this behavior, and/or to not repeat this unwanted behavior on the future?

How will you measure your success in accomplishing these specific steps? (not net profit)

Will you start tomorrow?

Mike

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  #40 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
What very specific steps will you take to improve this behavior, and/or to not repeat this unwanted behavior on the future?

How will you measure your success in accomplishing these specific steps? (not net profit)

Will you start tomorrow?

Mike

Thank you for the questions Mike. They are very good and important.

One specific step that I will begin taking immediately is if I am feeling even slightly that my abilty to think and focus clearly is not 100%, I will ask my wife her opinion as to if I am struggling in this area. If she feels I am less than 100%, I will not trade that day.

I now have a mental/physical health question in my pre-session checklist. I am working on a grading method to rank my condition on a scale of 1-5 (1 being best), which will be complete this week. Then I can track and ensure I will not trade unless I am at my optimal health.

I am going to take the weekend and come up with specific steps I can take to keep from trading to not lose or set my STOP beyond where I would be proven wrong. These steps will be implemented by Monday.

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