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March Madness....NO FEAR contest journal


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March Madness....NO FEAR contest journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 Tiberius 
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This is my contest journal for the Big Mike Challenge 3 - Win $750 in prizes. I will trade live and document my month of March 2012 here, trading ETFs and eminis. NO FEAR.



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 Gabriyele 
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go brother Tib go!!!

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 Tiberius 
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1st trade: got 6 ticks (cents) on SSO, 200% S&P500 ETF



Currently it is slow and choppy

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 Rad4633 
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Tib>>>>>>>> You Can Do It!

Nic trade

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  #6 (permalink)
 Tiberius 
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I will analyze this trade:



The trade is in the rectangle. I was looking for a trade with the red bars. The ZLEMA was red also in a down trend. As the RMI approached the 70 mark I place a stop order below the first red bar in the red shaded area only for the RMI to turn turn green and reverse. I canceled the order. I waited for the price bar to touch the Bollinger band and then replaced the order below the second red bar in the second red shaded area. I waited and it executed. Only for price to range a bar higher. The Schaff was flat and the Laquerre went flat as price ranged down a bar. I had a bracket order and I adjusted the stop one tick above the ZLEMA and waited. Finally the RMI reversed and turn green. I pulled my target order up a little and finally again price returned and executed. OCO. As you can see the Schaff and Lag remained flat and price returned to the bottom of the channel. On the completion of the next white bar all three panel 2 indies broke out of the bottom zone.

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 Tiberius 
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tweaking the parameters:



I was going to take the next trade when the first green bar touched the Bollinger band in the next blue shaded area. But the Market was slow and choppy so I didn't. It would of been a failed trade. After trading hours, I started to tweak the indie settings. I reviewed the Schaff and Laquerre from the links in post 2 and adjusted per the articles. For me the Schaff and Laquerre are unique indies. I am a good trader but only as long as the market wants to give. I want to stay in the trade longer in these ETFs and not jump out on every reverse of the RMI or white bar or diminished shaded area. I need to read the price action and hang with a trend and ZLEMA. March Madness gives me the opportunity to experiment with the indie parameters. Hence tweak them as I did with this image. If I trade the 6E, it will just be a trade in the shaded area.

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 cory 
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no fear...but looks mad!

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 Tiberius 
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another busy day





2 Range chart




4 Range chart

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 Tiberius 
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Tiberius View Post
another busy day





2 Range chart




4 Range chart

I am working with 4 range charts. But I have found that you can get in late and out late. Combine that with slippage from using stop orders and profits can be pretty thin. From 4 range or 4 cent charts I moved to 2 range (cent). In and out quicker with a signal change. I still have 4 range charts up for reference.

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 Tiberius 
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I made two ETF trades monday.



They were pretty thin.



The first trade, the market was running kind of flat. But from the flats, we can get a good break. The price channel you see on the chart adapts, meaning after a bit of time, the channel morphs away from where the price bars were located. And these images are captured long after the actual trades, so the channel has changed from whence I saw. This image as you see: price is pretty flat. Price was dropping away from the top of the price channel. I had red bars in a red background. I entered under that price bar. stopped in ........ then I started getting the arrow heads which meant an OS condition, so I pulled up my target order and Bingo. Then price indeed reversed.



The next trade same conditions as the first. Stopped in under signal bar. Price goes to target, but I get slippage on both sides and Bingo, a thin profit. This time though, price broke and broke good and I wasn't there for it. I just watched.

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 Tiberius 
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These images, I captured after the trades. I have 200 GDX and I wrote 2 calls against the position. I didn't trade ETFs Tuesday, only options. On Tuesday, with the break in the market I rolled my calls lower. Today the market wants to rebound and pushed against my strike price, so I decided to trade the ETF GDX. GDX can trade very well.



The polynominal price channel, PRC, is trending down. Price swings back to the top of the PRC while the RMI, Schaff and Laquerre follow. I call this a 123 trade. 1) the RMI breaks lower. 2) the Laquerre breaks 85 3) the Schaff breaks 75. Bingo, red bars and red background. I placed my stop order under the signal bar, I'm in, but slippage. Price goes to target towards the bottom of the channel. Target.



Same trade set-up. But then the Laquerre spikes up, I hesitate. The Laquerre resumes, my order gets placed, Bingo; I'm in at the bottom of the bar. Price reverses with the RMI. NO FEAR: the ZLEMA is red, the Schaff and Laquerre are still in there zones. My stop is two ticks above ZLEMA. Price moves my way with the RMI and target is hit just before the arrowhead.

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 Tiberius 
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today's trades


This first trade was a loser. NO FEAR but just plain dumb. Like I said, I have 200 GDX with Mar9 53 calls against them. I need to protect the strike price because I don't want the stock called. GDX was higher pre-market and I was showing a losing hand. At 9:30 I just went long GDX (green bars) as seen on the chart. Price bounced around quickly, I had my stop in place; the arrow head appeared. I just let myself be stopped like a fool. Last place to bail on the trade was the yellow arrow.


All right, now I need to earn it back. I shake it off and watch. The PRC rolls over as price grinds sideways. Price breaks to the bottom of the PRC. OS arrow heads. Back up to the PRC top, OB arrow heads. Now down, just like the RMI, Lag and Schaff gave a 123 signal for the previous up move, now we have one for a down move. I place my stop order, bingo. Price moves to target, bingo. Yellow arrows are the change in the ZLEMA trend. Need to trade with IT..


Next: I have a bunch of options trade and I am trading SSO on another account.. Now back to GDX. The PRC has turned up and from the bottom, I get a 123 signal. Blue background, place my stop order, Bingo; price runs to my target order in under 30 seconds. Arrow head again after the warning triangles.


I didn't take the down trade in the up PRC, even with the 123 signal. Okay, arrow heads, bottom; and up again with a 123 signal and st-udder green bars; I'm in late on the blue background, then OB arrow head, I fight the chop higher pulling my target and stop orders tighter and tighter .................... Bingo break-even trade. Out before the break shown by the white bars.

My price bars are painted with the ESFX's CCI indie from his thread. Indie by Mike Winfrey.

Some thoughts:
I am looking for a set-up to limit my trades. Maybe I am looking to trade in the flooded background to limit my trades. I want to trade in the direction of the PRC to limit my trades. I want to trade in the opposite direction after an arrow head. I want a short off the top of the PRC. I want a long off the bottom of the PRC. I don't want to trade from the middle of the channel. I need to continue to watch this chart to learn and discover the best trade characteristics.

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 Big Mike 
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I don't see where this was covered in the thread already, so just want to be sure you knew PRC heavily repaints so using it as a historical reference to gauge the bounds of price is probably not a good idea.

I was one of the original authors of the PRC for Ninja and was excited about it initially, but then after I disabled the repainting in my version I realized how (to me at least) it was worthless.

Mike

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 Tiberius 
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I don't see where this was covered in the thread already, so just want to be sure you knew PRC heavily repaints so using it as a historical reference to gauge the bounds of price is probably not a good idea. Mike

Yes the PRC does repaint heavily. Historical worthlessness. I have been using it as an at-the-moment reference for price and how price reacts to it. The image shows a total distortion of the PRC that starts only a dozen or so bars back from the current bar.


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 Tiberius 
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I didn't trade Friday: I rollovered my option portfolio. Didn't trade Monday, didn't feel like it. I didn't feel like trading on Tuesday, but I simmed these trades. 1st trade: I got all the signals, placed the order and had to ride out the consolidation. ZLEMA was red, NO FEAR. Then price went to target.



2nd trade: I got the signals again, but in the top half of the PRC. The I get the OB arrows, so I pulled my stop under the first white bar. A new bar lower, I would be out. And I was out. Slippage on all the trades, part of the game.

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 Tiberius 
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moving to Wednesday, the 14th.




I removed the PRC for these images because of the repaint issue. 1st trade: I get the signals to short; stopped in. These days I am giving price some room with my protective stop. Price moves in my favor. Problem: because my option portfolio got hammered last week and this week and I have already made a bunch of option trades; my account balance dips below 25K and IB says because of that I am a pattern trader and it isn't allowed; cancels my target order. Later as seen on the image, I get to cover my short when my account floats above 25K.



Lets, try this again. 2nd trade: I get the signals, I short ..................................... nice trade .............................. IB locks me out again .................................. screw it. I'm short and done for the day.

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 Tiberius 
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I am working another account. This is a retirement account and it is maxed out, but just enough to trade 80 shares.



I get the buy signal. I place my order and there is a burst in price. I am stopped in with 4 cents of slippage. This chart is a 4 range chart. I have a 2 range chart on the other monitor. I get the OB arrow, NO FEAR, the 2 range chart still has this in a good trade, just give the trade a chance with a wide protective stop. Price loves these OB/OS situations. I get the OB triangles all the way up. I am moving my protective stop and letting price run. I am moving my stop up ..... oh, no the price ladder re-centers and my protective is now my target as I drop the stop in the re-centered wrong place. Execution, I'm out ....................

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 Maisie 
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u n' me both right on the edge of 25K at IB. pain in the booty, isn't it ? i wish the SEC would get rid of that rule.

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 Tiberius 
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u n' me both right on the edge of 25K at IB. pain in the booty, isn't it ? i wish the SEC would get rid of that rule.

my trading account floated above the 25K mark. I traded from another account though, today. I have three accounts up and ready to go at all times. I am getting ready for next week; I got the eminis charts ready to go. With the eminis I want to just trade just in the shaded areas when the RMI breaks either the 30 or 70 levels. Bracket order. Of course, I have other rules like the Laquerre and Schaff have to be there also. Okay, some charts and then back to March Madness.


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 Tiberius 
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A paint dry day for trading, NO FEAR.


Trade 1: got the buy signal. slow day. got the OB arrow. moved up my stop. bingo. NO FEAR but not dumb.


Trade 2: slowwwwww, got the buy. failing trade ............. bailed by writing a ITM call for a very small profit.


Trade 3: REAL SLOWWWWW, trade went no where, but it did a little, a little later for nothing. Bailed with BE+1.


then, rollovered the option to next Friday for another $0.50 from trade 2.

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 Tiberius 
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one trade for the journal. The NQ: per the chart: I didn't like the look of the chart, I simmed the a trade in the middle of the chart which failed. The PRC turned up and long scalps showed in the new environment with green bars in a blue background. When the RMI was about to break above 70, I placed my stop (bracket order) on the price ladder and bingo. Everything looks good, I get the OS red triangles before the OS arrow and the trade starts to fail. I had been moving my stop up to BE, but my target order would not slide down to the current price to LMT me out, so I hit the close position button and out. The trade is in the box. Not seen; after this trade in retrospect there was another long scalp and I tried to sim a short which failed. Basically you have to anticipate the RMI breaking into the zone (70 & 30) with your order; that's why I stop myself in beyond the bar; if I get stopped in then price continued and the RMI broke into the zone. If the RMI reverses, then the scalp is probably over. If the Laquerre and/or Schaff reverses the trade is OVER.


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 Tiberius 
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the trade


I made one trade today. It was not the best trade being price was at the bottom of the channel. So the RMI reversed on me and my stop at the red arrow screwed me with slippage executing at the yellow arrow.


I made this sim trade, successful after getting burned on the last.


I want to filter trades, so I started using two charts. Trade the two range within the four range.

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 Tiberius 
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the trade


with the failure of yesterday's live trade; I decided to scalp a trade because in the shaded area you can get a burst in price. I was late on the trade with slippage, but it was successful.


This is an example of divergence and Laquerre execution points:

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 Tiberius 
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the trades


I started with a sim, It was before the shaded area as I was stopped into the market. I just work the protective stop and the target stop lower along the ZLEMA. I was stopped with the protective stop.

Another view with two charts.


I do not know what happen to this live trade. If it was slippage or the price ladder jumped. But I got a bad fill at the bottom. And when price turned I couldn't get my protective stop low enough, fast enough.


So I decided to take a scalp on trade 3.


And trade 4, just grab a scalp.

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 Tiberius 
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It was Friday rollover day. I just did a sim trade.



I do like the twim Schaff because it talks to me when matched to Price Action and the ZLEMA. I like to trade the 2 range, but look at the 4 range.

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 Tiberius 
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On Monday, I find that it is difficult to get going on the trading front. I think I need to be like a baseball pitcher, who throws in the bullpen to warm up, I need to sim trade from the start of the session to warm up. I sim trade to win like live trading, so I am picky about trades. I should think about it as a trading bullpen and just throws some trades out on a setup cue.



Not warmed up and late to the party, I was working other accounts. I took a sim trade.



I do watch the 4 range.



And I followed the rally in the NQ.

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 Big Mike 
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

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  #29 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Tiberius View Post
Yes the PRC does repaint heavily. Historical worthlessness. I have been using it as an at-the-moment reference for price and how price reacts to it.

I did the same with it, immediate visual, useles historical. It curves in your direction as confirmation, and IF price reacted favorably, the edges did hold some little mental magic.

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