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March Madness....NO FEAR contest journal
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March Madness....NO FEAR contest journal

  #11 (permalink)
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Mondays Trades the 5th

I made two ETF trades monday.

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They were pretty thin.

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The first trade, the market was running kind of flat. But from the flats, we can get a good break. The price channel you see on the chart adapts, meaning after a bit of time, the channel morphs away from where the price bars were located. And these images are captured long after the actual trades, so the channel has changed from whence I saw. This image as you see: price is pretty flat. Price was dropping away from the top of the price channel. I had red bars in a red background. I entered under that price bar. stopped in ........ then I started getting the arrow heads which meant an OS condition, so I pulled up my target order and Bingo. Then price indeed reversed.

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The next trade same conditions as the first. Stopped in under signal bar. Price goes to target, but I get slippage on both sides and Bingo, a thin profit. This time though, price broke and broke good and I wasn't there for it. I just watched.

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  #12 (permalink)
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Wednesday the 7th

These images, I captured after the trades. I have 200 GDX and I wrote 2 calls against the position. I didn't trade ETFs Tuesday, only options. On Tuesday, with the break in the market I rolled my calls lower. Today the market wants to rebound and pushed against my strike price, so I decided to trade the ETF GDX. GDX can trade very well.

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The polynominal price channel, PRC, is trending down. Price swings back to the top of the PRC while the RMI, Schaff and Laquerre follow. I call this a 123 trade. 1) the RMI breaks lower. 2) the Laquerre breaks 85 3) the Schaff breaks 75. Bingo, red bars and red background. I placed my stop order under the signal bar, I'm in, but slippage. Price goes to target towards the bottom of the channel. Target.

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Same trade set-up. But then the Laquerre spikes up, I hesitate. The Laquerre resumes, my order gets placed, Bingo; I'm in at the bottom of the bar. Price reverses with the RMI. NO FEAR: the ZLEMA is red, the Schaff and Laquerre are still in there zones. My stop is two ticks above ZLEMA. Price moves my way with the RMI and target is hit just before the arrowhead.


Last edited by Tiberius; March 8th, 2012 at 08:16 AM.
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  #13 (permalink)
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Thursday the 8th


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today's trades

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This first trade was a loser. NO FEAR but just plain dumb. Like I said, I have 200 GDX with Mar9 53 calls against them. I need to protect the strike price because I don't want the stock called. GDX was higher pre-market and I was showing a losing hand. At 9:30 I just went long GDX (green bars) as seen on the chart. Price bounced around quickly, I had my stop in place; the arrow head appeared. I just let myself be stopped like a fool. Last place to bail on the trade was the yellow arrow.

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All right, now I need to earn it back. I shake it off and watch. The PRC rolls over as price grinds sideways. Price breaks to the bottom of the PRC. OS arrow heads. Back up to the PRC top, OB arrow heads. Now down, just like the RMI, Lag and Schaff gave a 123 signal for the previous up move, now we have one for a down move. I place my stop order, bingo. Price moves to target, bingo. Yellow arrows are the change in the ZLEMA trend. Need to trade with IT..

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Next: I have a bunch of options trade and I am trading SSO on another account.. Now back to GDX. The PRC has turned up and from the bottom, I get a 123 signal. Blue background, place my stop order, Bingo; price runs to my target order in under 30 seconds. Arrow head again after the warning triangles.

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I didn't take the down trade in the up PRC, even with the 123 signal. Okay, arrow heads, bottom; and up again with a 123 signal and st-udder green bars; I'm in late on the blue background, then OB arrow head, I fight the chop higher pulling my target and stop orders tighter and tighter .................... Bingo break-even trade. Out before the break shown by the white bars.

My price bars are painted with the ESFX's CCI indie from his thread. Indie by Mike Winfrey.

Some thoughts:
I am looking for a set-up to limit my trades. Maybe I am looking to trade in the flooded background to limit my trades. I want to trade in the direction of the PRC to limit my trades. I want to trade in the opposite direction after an arrow head. I want a short off the top of the PRC. I want a long off the bottom of the PRC. I don't want to trade from the middle of the channel. I need to continue to watch this chart to learn and discover the best trade characteristics.

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  #14 (permalink)
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I don't see where this was covered in the thread already, so just want to be sure you knew PRC heavily repaints so using it as a historical reference to gauge the bounds of price is probably not a good idea.

I was one of the original authors of the PRC for Ninja and was excited about it initially, but then after I disabled the repainting in my version I realized how (to me at least) it was worthless.

Mike

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PRC


Big Mike View Post
I don't see where this was covered in the thread already, so just want to be sure you knew PRC heavily repaints so using it as a historical reference to gauge the bounds of price is probably not a good idea. Mike

Yes the PRC does repaint heavily. Historical worthlessness. I have been using it as an at-the-moment reference for price and how price reacts to it. The image shows a total distortion of the PRC that starts only a dozen or so bars back from the current bar.

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trades

I didn't trade Friday: I rollovered my option portfolio. Didn't trade Monday, didn't feel like it. I didn't feel like trading on Tuesday, but I simmed these trades. 1st trade: I got all the signals, placed the order and had to ride out the consolidation. ZLEMA was red, NO FEAR. Then price went to target.
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2nd trade: I got the signals again, but in the top half of the PRC. The I get the OB arrows, so I pulled my stop under the first white bar. A new bar lower, I would be out. And I was out. Slippage on all the trades, part of the game.
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  #17 (permalink)
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Okay

moving to Wednesday, the 14th.

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I removed the PRC for these images because of the repaint issue. 1st trade: I get the signals to short; stopped in. These days I am giving price some room with my protective stop. Price moves in my favor. Problem: because my option portfolio got hammered last week and this week and I have already made a bunch of option trades; my account balance dips below 25K and IB says because of that I am a pattern trader and it isn't allowed; cancels my target order. Later as seen on the image, I get to cover my short when my account floats above 25K.
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Lets, try this again. 2nd trade: I get the signals, I short ..................................... nice trade .............................. IB locks me out again .................................. screw it. I'm short and done for the day.
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Thursday, the ides of March

I am working another account. This is a retirement account and it is maxed out, but just enough to trade 80 shares.

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I get the buy signal. I place my order and there is a burst in price. I am stopped in with 4 cents of slippage. This chart is a 4 range chart. I have a 2 range chart on the other monitor. I get the OB arrow, NO FEAR, the 2 range chart still has this in a good trade, just give the trade a chance with a wide protective stop. Price loves these OB/OS situations. I get the OB triangles all the way up. I am moving my protective stop and letting price run. I am moving my stop up ..... oh, no the price ladder re-centers and my protective is now my target as I drop the stop in the re-centered wrong place. Execution, I'm out ....................

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  #19 (permalink)
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u n' me both right on the edge of 25K at IB. pain in the booty, isn't it ? i wish the SEC would get rid of that rule.

Du sublime au ridicule, il n'ya qu'un pas. ~Napoleon Bonaparte
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pain it is......................



Maisie View Post
u n' me both right on the edge of 25K at IB. pain in the booty, isn't it ? i wish the SEC would get rid of that rule.

my trading account floated above the 25K mark. I traded from another account though, today. I have three accounts up and ready to go at all times. I am getting ready for next week; I got the eminis charts ready to go. With the eminis I want to just trade just in the shaded areas when the RMI breaks either the 30 or 70 levels. Bracket order. Of course, I have other rules like the Laquerre and Schaff have to be there also. Okay, some charts and then back to March Madness.

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March Madness....NO FEAR contest journal-zn-06-12-4-rangenogap-3_16_2012.jpg   March Madness....NO FEAR contest journal-ym-06-12-2-rangenogap-3_16_2012.jpg   March Madness....NO FEAR contest journal-nq-06-12-2-rangenogap-3_16_2012.jpg   March Madness....NO FEAR contest journal-6e-06-12-2-rangenogap-3_16_2012.jpg  
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