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Renko in underwear


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Renko in underwear

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  #1 (permalink)
kmidas
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Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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I received Big Mike's invitation for the journals trading contest and I thought I would take place in this contest with something useful.

I do some forex trading and recently renko charts have drawn my attention. I opened an account with Oanda and I trade demo trying to develop my method. So far I have found some success.

I am calling this journal "Renko in underwear" because the only indicator I use is one that plots support and resistance, just to assist me to identify me with ease.

On my chart I also plot a 5 days Donchian Channel and a 10 days SMA. I just have them there hopping that my eyes will catch something useful for them and find a way to trade the breakouts. So far almost all the breakout trades I have taken ended as losers. On the contrary trading bounces from support and resistance all have ended in profits.

I use 50 pips blocks because I have a 9-5 job and I can't stay all day pampering the charts. I have the wicks enabled so I can follow better the price action. Every morning I wake up in 6:00-6:30. Watch the charts while sipping my morning espresso. If I find something that I like I give the pending order or maybe enter right there and I go to work. When I come back I look again at the charts and again if I see something pretty I may take it.

I have attached a screen shot of my chart template.

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  #3 (permalink)
kmidas
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This is a Myfxbook widget monitoring my account

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  #4 (permalink)
kmidas
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USDCHF trending down, bouncing from resistance, unfortunately inside some form of consolidation. The target can't be very far. The 0.91 looks like it is an important area so we should expect some hard time there. I don't like hard times so I am putting my tp there.

Short @0.91421
SL @0.93
TP @0.91

Profit +42 pips

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  #5 (permalink)
kmidas
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Two trades that failed.

AUDCHF and AUDCAD. Both of them were taken on the breach of the 5 days Donchian Channel and both of them failed big time. My account was brought back to break even. A good solution for the breakout failures would be immediate exit, no question asked, at the creation of the first bar on the opposite direction ( or at least moving the SL few pips beyond that). Unfortunately if the market moves fast and no one is there to monitor it tis is not going to work. Maybe trailing stops would be a solution to this problem.

Anyway I took the loss today in these two trades but my account is still above the 0 line

AUDCHF -181 pips
AUDCAD -66 pips

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  #6 (permalink)
kmidas
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NZDCHF made a higher high, took out the previous resistance and failed. Turned around more than 120 pips, trading under the up trend line, which BTW has been touched three times. I think it has the potential to reach to the previous support. And it did.

Pending short @ 0.75878
SL @0.77000
TP @0.75500

Profit +38 pips

Unfortunately so far my trading looks more like scalping. The account is still green but nothing exceptional. I really have to find a way to take advantage of those big moves.



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  #7 (permalink)
kmidas
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Last week has been a disaster. Some trades failed and failed badly. My account is down to 3.6%

AUDCHF was bought as soon as it made a new high. I kept it for 2 weeks and finally it failed with -180 pips

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  #8 (permalink)
kmidas
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GBPCAD

This pair was in downtrend. Not a clean one but still a downtrend. That blue area I have marked in my chart was full of resistance. Price tried once more to break it and failed.

Short @1.5642
SL @
1.5763
TP @1.5555 In front of the next support.

Loss -121 pips

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  #9 (permalink)
kmidas
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GBPNZD

The pair was in downtrend, again failed to move past the resistance but this time with the added benefit of making a lower high and a lower low plus the added benefit of breaching the lower Donchian line.

Short @1.87977
SL @1.89558
TP @1.86414

Loss -158 pips

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  #10 (permalink)
kmidas
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From now on I am changing my strategy. I have removed the Donchian Channel and the EMA(10). I have replaced them with 3 moving averages SMA(10), SMA(20) and SMA(30). If these three moving averages are properly aligned then we have a trend in place and then we should look for points of entry in that direction. Otherwise no trade should be taken.

I don't know if this journal should be called "in underwear" anymore but I like the title

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  #11 (permalink)
kmidas
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AUDUSD. This pair had failed me before but the PA looked promising so I thought I should reenter. The pair broke below the resistance @1.0637 with a big block but the next block brought it back. The 1.0700 is a place where price had flipped many times so I entered a pending order a bit higher. The logical point of next resistance is 1.0750 but I became a bit greedy and aimed for 1.0800. The price reached the original resistance and turned back again and again failed to stay low. Now it is moving towards 1.0800. After I applied my new 3 MAs I see that the SMA(10) is pointing downward. This is not so pretty sight but what the heck. I am already in this trade so no reason to change my mind now.

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  #12 (permalink)
kmidas
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CADJPY. The SMAs are properly aligned and all pointing up. The price retraced up to 80.00 level and is bouncing back. I have placed a buy stop @80.1070 that will be activated after the green bar will be formed, if it will be formed.

I also entered a market order just in case price reaches my buy stop and fails. In that case I will minimize my losses. This second buy was more an impulse buy which I regret now but I hope that my friend the trend will bail me out.

Both of the orders have a stop @79.912.
The pending order has no TP, the market order has TP @80.1000

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  #13 (permalink)
kmidas
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That market trade has hit the TP. +39 pips

The pending order has been activated. Now it is in a small loss of -32 pips. No worries yet but I am not happy either

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  #14 (permalink)
kmidas
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AUDJPY is uptrending, reversed to the 86.00 level, stopped there and bounced back up.

Pending Buy @87.01
Stop Loss @85.51
No TP

Let's see how far is going to get us

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  #15 (permalink)
kmidas
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EURNZD was in downtrend, consolidated, now it is turning bullish. The MAs are aligned properly but not far from each other. It retested the 1.6000 level and bounced back up. It also bounced away from that red trend line

Market buy @1.6079
Stop @1.5900
No TP

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kmidas
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TP got hit. +88 pips

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  #17 (permalink)
kmidas
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The trade failed. That is what you get by selling the stronger currency. Loss -179 pips.

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  #18 (permalink)
kmidas
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Another change in the plan. It seems that 50 pips blocks are too big to trade in daily. When loses happen they are bigger than 100 pips and when I decide to get out of the trade I have to leave on the table more than 100 pips. So I decided to reduce to half.

GBPUSD in uptrend, retraced to 1.59 and now it is bouncing back. That 1.59 level has acted before twice as resistance so now it is a good candidate for support.

According to the relative strength chart GBP is stronger than USD on the daily and the 4H.

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  #19 (permalink)
kmidas
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That GBPUSD trade failed. Loss -61 pips

I don't feel right with chasing moving averages on the renko bars. There is still way too much discretion involved without the added benefit of multiple time frames analysis or the ability to zoom out to see the bigger picture. For a guy forced to miss the London session, splitting my time between trading and family, trading with very thin capital on high leverage, trading a 24h market, I need a more mechanical way to pick my trades. I think I have a couple of ideas and I will do more visual check tomorrow. I will post more details tomorrow after I will do a better eyeballing on the past.

For now I still have the AUDJPY and CADJPY trades running and in green.

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kmidas
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I was watching and testing the charts the whole weekend. Unfortunately I didn't find a way to automate my trading. I still have to use discretion.

Maybe there is something that can bail me out in many occasions from bad trades. I noticed that in many occasions, when I enter a trade that goes bad, it goes really bad, and thank God for stop loss. What if I try to take advantage of it? What if I enter the original trade in the intended direction but put another counter order pending just on the opposite side of my stop loss and the TP the same number of pips as the original loss but this time in the original direction? Of course there will be times when the range will be so tight that I will end up with double the losses. But I expect generally more successes than failures with this strategy.

The entries will be mainly Breaches of a 5 Bars Donchian Channel, Pullbacks and bounces in trends when the moving averages are aligned and bounces from the support or resistance lines. Since the bounces will be happening mostly inside consolidation areas, they will be the only trades with TP. The trend following trades and the breakouts will have only a trailing stop of 60 pips which is twice the block size plus a security margin.


I didn't take any trades today. I didn't have the time to sit and watch any charts. Even my morning espresso I took it in the office. I only managed my two open trades.

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kmidas
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As I said all my charts have been changed to 25 pips blocks. So I continued managing my open trades with 25 pips blocks.

CADJPY printed a red block, I moved the stop just below that block and got out with +108 pips in profit

Considering that it was at some point +170 pips it makes me sad leaving so many good pips on the table. I can't think any better technique to get out of a winning position.

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  #22 (permalink)
kmidas
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AUDJPY printed a red bar which also failed to keep price above the previous resistance. Moved the stop loss below that bar and I got out. +15 pips. A bit disappointing but still it is a + sign so it is good in the end.

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  #23 (permalink)
kmidas
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A trade I considered taking this morning but I chickened out and didn't

NZDUSD breaking below the down trend line. (In the screenshot I have attached the trend line look a bit off but it is just because it moves. Can't find a way to keep it pinned there).

The Moving Averages are aligning properly and pretty and we have a second bar DC breach. Unfortunately in front of us was a horizontal resistance in the 0.825 area that has been touched 3 times and, after all, the NZD has been a strong currency lately.

Well, didn't take it and now I am watching it fly

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  #24 (permalink)
kmidas
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AUDCAD broke previous resistance, new DC low, SMAs all looking down.

Short @1.05693
Initial SL @1.06211 now trailing @60 pips
No TP

At the same time I entered a pending order buy @1.0627, SL @1.05717, TP @1.06732. That would test my theory about reversing the position. The price moved lower so I have canceled that order. That's it for today. No more trades.

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  #25 (permalink)
kmidas
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In this trade I got kicked out early. It seems that when the broker has 5 digit currencies the 60 pips trailing stop should be typed as 600. That means that my 60 pips was actually 6 pips trailing stop. Profit +2 pips

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  #26 (permalink)
kmidas
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Today was a good great day for my trades. I took 4 of them and all ended up green.

GBPNZD in downtrend, made one attempt to turn bullish but failed, right to the SMAs which are properly aligned. TP set at the point where was the previous resistance.

Short @Sell 1.92265
SL @1.93
TP @1.91219

Profit +104.6 pips

At the same time I entered a counter order Long @1.93 with TP @1.93772 just in case I was wrong. That didn't triger and I am canceling it.

Unfortunately I don't have a before screenshoot of this, only the after.

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  #27 (permalink)
kmidas
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EURJPY stopped at previous resistance @105.755, bounced up and broke the upper channel line.

Long @107.005
SL @106.430 two bars back.
TP @108.000 which is a round number and price has swinged much there recently. That area is full of resistance. At that point the price made a red brick but recovered again and now it made a new high.

Profit +94.4 pips

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  #28 (permalink)
kmidas
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USDCAD is consolidating. It bounced down from parity where it has found much resistance in the recent past.

Short @0.99603
SL @1.025
TP @0.99 where the next resistance starts.

Profit +60 pips

Naturally I entered the counter trade which didn't trigger and will be canceled

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  #29 (permalink)
kmidas
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CADJPY in uptrend, made a deep retracement below the 81.000 level and bounced back up. It also broke the upper channel line. Good candidate for continuation. Also in the candlestick chart the pair is in uptrend on the daily chart.

Long @81.573
SL initially @81.886. Now I removed it and entered a trailing stop of 60 pips.
TP initially @82.770 where the next resistance is but now I have removed it completely.

I will leave this alone to run as far as it can. I hope I will not regret this.

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  #30 (permalink)
kmidas
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USDCHF bouncing down from the 0.91 level. The whole area between 0.91 and 0.92 is filled with a recent range. Also we have a breach of the lower channel line.

On the daily chart we have a big bearish bar down from resistance.

Pending short @0.90687
SL @0.91317
TP @0.90 where is the support

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  #31 (permalink)
kmidas
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Some times better be lucky than smart. I had put here two pending orders. On for short, which was my intended direction, and a counter trade long just in case I was wrong. Well I was wrong but even better my short order didn't trigger at all. Instead my buy order triggered and flied to my TP.

Buy 0.91319
Sell 0.92003
Stop 0.90687

Profit +68.4 pips

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  #32 (permalink)
kmidas
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EURJPY. After the big move yesterday it halted at the resistance @108.000 and then printed a new bar breaking the higher DC line. I entered long to follow the trend but unfortunately it failed. Well, losses happen. I also entered a counter trade so I can get my refund. Unfortunately the range is so tight that the pair is not moving anywhere and I am sitting on a second loss right now. On the other hand I am glad that this happened and I hope it will happen some more in the future so I can see how my theory stands.

First trade:
Buy 108.543
Stop 107.991
TP 109.500

Loss -55 pips

Second trade:

Sell 107.988
Stop 108.541
TP 107.321

So far loss -22.5 pips

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  #33 (permalink)
kmidas
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I made an expert advisor that buys on two consecutive bars after a red bar and sells after two red bars following a green bar. The positions are trailed with a 60 pips trailing stop which is the trade close criteria. The EA is attached to all the pairs that I am following. That's it. No discretion involved. I expect some loses on ranging markets but I hope gains will be big enough to pay for the loses. This EA is running on a separate demo account and has nothing to do with my current account which I will continue to trade manually. Tomorrow I will add that account to myfxbook also.

I am attaching a chart of the kind that I expect to cause me some trouble.

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kmidas
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This trade came to an end. Despite my trailing stop I didn't have much more gain than if I had taken my profits in my intended level. It did go higher and I gave back 60 pips. Exit @82.878. Profit +130 pips.

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  #35 (permalink)
kmidas
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Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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USDCAD is playing around the 1.0000 level. It seems that in the 0.98 it bounced back and is trying to creep up back to parity. Now that I look it again it doesn't look like a good solid place to have found resistance. Not much confluence of facts. On the other side on the 30 min charts there was a 2B pattern so that looks encouraging.

Long @0.99288
SL @0.98730
TP @1.0000

And of course the counter trade pending
Short @0.98712
SL @0.99273
TP @0.98440 where the resistance is.

Unfortunately this pair consolidated today. No strong move and watching the Renko chart now is like I was watching it this morning. I am going to sit and wait. After a consolidation comes the trend.

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  #36 (permalink)
kmidas
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Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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BTW, that Expert Advisor I made yesterday, doesn't seem to work, or the market didn't revers anything today. I didn't have much time to investigate what's wrong with it. I hope I can find some time in the next days.

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  #37 (permalink)
 sharky 
MIAMI,FL
 
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i would suggest you just trade the euro or pound future,6e or 6b,also dont worry about makeing a autotrader just do it yourself,also wait for your candle to open above your ma for a long or under it for a short and take those swings off your chart you can see where your ladt swing was it is just cluttering your chart,alsp i would try a renko 4 or 6 or 8 range instead of a pip chart.your method can be traded with some minor mods and some pratice. oh yeah dont try to reverse your trades it wont work...sharky

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  #38 (permalink)
kmidas
Greece
 
 
Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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This trade failed and failed miserably. That is the bad news. The good news is that there are useful lessons to be extracted from this failure.

1. I was overoptimistic with this trade. The trend on the daily is up in this pair so how I was expecting to go that far on the short side? Also there was a clearly defined resistance @107.75. There is where I should have put my TP.
2. All positions should be trailed with a stop of 60 pips. 2 bars back.

The funny thing is that as I write these lines the price is bouncing down from my SL
Loss -55 pips

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  #39 (permalink)
kmidas
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Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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sharky View Post
i would suggest you just trade the euro or pound future,6e or 6b,also dont worry about makeing a autotrader just do it yourself,also wait for your candle to open above your ma for a long or under it for a short and take those swings off your chart you can see where your ladt swing was it is just cluttering your chart,alsp i would try a renko 4 or 6 or 8 range instead of a pip chart.your method can be traded with some minor mods and some pratice. oh yeah dont try to reverse your trades it wont work...sharky


Thanks for you comments sharky. I am trying the Expert Advisor for educational purposes mostly. Unfortunately renko can't be backtested with metatrader so I hope I can get some good conclusions from the expert advisor. As for the swings I think I have some usefoul idea how to use them. I am trying to apply 3 different setups on trading the renko. Yeah it probably clutters my chart too much but I hope with enough training my eye will be able to see through the clutter. What is renko with range?

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  #40 (permalink)
kmidas
Greece
 
 
Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 8 given, 26 received

GBPCHF. Deep loss in this trade. Not sure what exactly has happened. I entered short on this trade trying to take advantage of new DC breakout. I entered a trailing stop of 60 pips (or 600 as my broker calls them) and left my merry way. I didn't enter a TP and I didn't enter the counter trade. When returned back home I found my position deep in -145 pips loss and totally unprotected. No stop loss at all. As it seems only a trailing stop is not enough. A initial precise stop is also needed.

Short @1.43285
Exit @1.44742

Loss -145 pips and a big WTF.

Update: It seems that the trailing stop option doesn't work in Oanda's MT4 when the terminal is off line. Oanda says that if one requires offline trailing stop then one should use their fxtrade app.

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  #41 (permalink)
kmidas
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Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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No new trades today and probably no new trades tomorrow. I am preparing for a business trip tomorrow so no time to devote to charts.

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  #42 (permalink)
kmidas
Greece
 
 
Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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Right now I am on a boat using a crappy Internet connection which resets all the time. I am posting for showing up.

Anyway I did a trade today before leaving in a hurry my house. I see now it is in a loss. I can't post more details today because I don't have metatrader in this computer. I will post tomorrow more details.

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  #43 (permalink)
kmidas
Greece
 
 
Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 8 given, 26 received

EURAUD. I took this trade as I was leaving my house in a hurry yesterday morning. I took it mostly because there were two green bars after a red. Unfortunately it ended at a loss. The sadest thing is that not only it ended in a loss, I got stopped out to almost the last pip before it bounced back up. The 1.24 area looks like a good support so there is a possibility to go higher. Who knows maybe next week.

Long @ 1.24599
SL @1.23945
TP none

Loss -65 pips

Now my account is back to break even

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  #44 (permalink)
kmidas
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Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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Unfortunately charting with renko bars a 24 hour market while at the same time joggling between work, sleep, family and trading is a very difficult task. I either have to use huge block sizes or miss many reversals during the day. Reversals that may provide opportunities to increase my account.

I finally managed to get my EA work. Starting this Monday I will test on a demo three different setups in three different accounts.

Setup nr.1 5 blocks Donchian breakout with trailing stop 10 pips below the first reversal bar
Setup nr.2 entry 2 blocks after a opposite color block trailed 10 beyond the first reversal bar
Setup nr.3 Entry at the sight of the first bar of the opposite color, exit at the sight of the first opposite color. This is a stop and reverse strategy that keeps us always in.

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  #45 (permalink)
kmidas
Greece
 
 
Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 8 given, 26 received

GBCAD looks like it is bouncing from the 1.5650 level. That level has acted in the past as support and hopefully will support the price again. The moving averages are properly aligned so this is a pullback in uptrend.

buy 1.5705
sl 1.5647
tp 1.5800 where is the next resistance

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  #46 (permalink)
kmidas
Greece
 
 
Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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One of my EA's is up and running. I have it running on all the pairs that I am following. Let's see how it will work during the next days.

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  #47 (permalink)
kmidas
Greece
 
 
Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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TP reached and got my profit +96 pips.

Today I got on line my second EA. So far the results are disheartening.

The setup Nr 2 running at the same time on all the pairs had the account at some point today on +4%. And it's only the second day. Now that account is on -0.6%.

The setup Nr 3 is now on its first day on line. I expect to be always in on the whole 28 pairs with this. So far it hasn't open positions on all the pairs but the account is on -0.7% already.

The margin requirements on following all the pairs are somehow big so maybe I will have to find a way to reduce the number of tradable pairs on any given time. But how will I know what to include and what to leave alone?

Tomorrow I will try to implement the DC breakout EA and put that on line also.

I know that trend trading is scary and I will pass most of my time on draw down but how do I know that I am following the correct path?

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  #48 (permalink)
kmidas
Greece
 
 
Posts: 68 since Feb 2011
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No more manual trades. I have been concerned with EA development. I don't know if I still qualify for this contest.

My EA trading seems to go well.

The 2 bars in one bar out strategy has given me yesterday a 15% draw down while today I sit on a +8% return on equity.

The one bar in one bar out strategy has given a 20.5% draw down. Today it was working it's way to recovery but it was very weak. I took it offline.

Today I got on line the third EA based on Donchian Channels of 5 days. I am curious to see how this is going to work out.


How long should I forward test before I can go live?

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  #49 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
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Manta, Ecuador
 
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

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