Thanks BigMike for the invitation to your journal competition - I am taking the rope :-)
For my trading three main points were essential and important
1) Plan your trade and trade your plan
2) Think out of the box: do not test all the indicators (others did that already)
3) Journal your trades and accept losers like winners
Other simple truth: Discipline and Focus
So I was looking at only one market to focus on and with the help of thinking out of the box I filtered out some rules that describe a high probability to take one daily trade on the DAX future. The main goal was to find a way to make only ONE trade per day with a good probable winner with minimal risk and to get out the same day.
Starting the day with a clear path in advance when to enter the trade (exact time to the 30 minute candle), the direction and the exact exit time (30 minute as well).
For my journaling I use twitter to give the signal - for the balance there is a simple worksheet.
There is only ONE DAX trade per day with some exceptions like long weekends and extreme volatility.
Easy - isn't it?
My goal is to be relaxed to take that daily trade as I know WHEN to enter and to exit. No hassling around with DOM or cristal ball. No fear and no worrying about direction as my stops are wide enough to let develop the trade and to minimize the overall risk. After having had lot of screen time over several years - today there are only short moments at the computer to make the trade and to see the results.
Technically I am using the great charting by Investor/RT with some good statistics to get the big picture.
Let's start the journey - hmm the journal :-)
UPDATE 2019:
stopped the posting of daily trades here by end of 2018.
NEW: for educational purpose I will give some insights on how to use Ichimoku Kinko Hyo with its cloud (KUMO) - showing it on the DAX as it moves. Some larger moves may also be reviewed. Stay tuned!
GFIs1
PS I: for those who want to see past results - check the name on twitter (Twitter announcements no longer active though)
PS II: Trading posts are normally developing over time: Before the trade - during the trade and after closing the trade.
Looking back to the trades commented on futures.io (formerly BMT) since February and twittered from January
I am underlining some points where time and investment optimized are making sense.
Last day of the year - time to look back on the two years:
Both years show nearly the same final result although the fact that markets developped differently.
In 2012 every week had mostly 5 trades. In 2013 the trades went down to 3 per week. The …
Instead of testing every new indicator back and forth on any or many market(s) it is more useful to find the few markets that move with certain patterns. If we can see some patterns we can form some rules for repeating movements. Getting the big picture of a market first and examine the details within can be very lucrative.
Forex markets are highly influenced from various forces and are therefore the most difficult markets to above experiments. Many new traders have to deal with the most difficult animal. The "profits" then are only flowing to the brokers and the marketing people. What is marketed as the simplest trading-market proofs to be the most unpredictable thus the one with the highest risk and loss.
Finally let us find the market first that fits our needs and personality and then find the right tools to do the trades - not vice versa.
(to be continued)
Agent provocateur
GFIs1
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Scenario: As a discretionary trader I start the day trading with a small gain: Bingo! Second try is a medium loss.
Hmmm.. Third trade the stop loss is set tighter now- of course it was hit! Fourth trade I leverage up and there is a big loss.
We have to stop for the day - overtrading. Well known - isn't it?
Not possible for the GFIs1 rule - there is only ONE trade per day. I said one trade (sic!). If the trade is stopped out or ends negative we have to wait for the next day. This is very important for every trader to let the market play it out: Patience and calm down! So we stay in the game.
Point!
Next day - new market - new possibilities. Plus a relaxed beginning to take THE trade as we had in maxima only ONE loss the previous day with a calculated maximum overall risk.
Easy - isn't it? Plan your trade and trade your plan.
(to be continued)
Agent provocateur
GFIs1
PS: with this system even the commissions are easy to summarize
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Yep - PROFIT! All traders hope and pray for profit on every trade! Profit is trader's air to survive.
But wait. Before you invest please invest:
Into hours of training before going for the olympic traders gold medal (aka BigMike's competition or similar).
Investing into a lot of broken accounts is a pity. Nobody cares about your battle in the market. Not even your broker ;-)
If we are prepared on a simulator like a pilot before his first flight we are calm enough to enter the markets and to exit with at least holding our account ready for the next shot.
Profit comes only if we can find the reap fruit to collect so to speak.
We prepare to find those gems every day and fill our basket. Day by day. This is an ongoing process. Optimizing our trading plan exactly for this goal. Training starts today.
We enter the market only when we feel to be enough positive to get a nice filled basket. Easy as that!
To smell the fruit on distance we need to refine our senses and stay ahead of our competitors.
Happy points!
(to be continued)
Agent provocateur
GFIs1
hey GFI - hold on a second: you are posting here more posts per day than your trading plan admits
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As usual there is a GFIs1 trade signal in the morning (CET) when to enter and when to exit before the trade starts.
Tomorrow is US presidents day. The system does not allow a trade on low volume days - so there will be no GFIs1 trade. Then "Rosenmontag" in Germany will be celebrated - a holiday - though the exchange is open there will be a low volume day.
Have a nice long weekend
GFIs1
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Basically there is a statistical counting of movements of the Dax within every WEEKDAY.
The outcome gives a high probability of going in one direction for x bars before the
price reverses. Think of a second wave after we throw a stone in the water. The system
will surf this second wave.
1) Trade execution is exactly on the 30 min bar
2) Trading only within the normal trading hours (09:00 to 17:30)
3) Entry and exit always the same day - no holding overnight / weekend
4) Very first entry not before the first bar ended (09:30, ALL time here is CET)
5) Exit normally before the US intraday starts
6) Special treatment for Roll-over days, holidays, long weekends, Gaps, US numbers, high volatilty
7) Stop is set wide enough but in range with a calculated personal maximum loss
In the morning we can get the trade after the start (initial balance) with a exact
starting time, exit time and direction. It is not meant to find the best trade or the most points during a day but to have a high probable winner day per day.
Result: easy starting the trade, set the stop and exit on foreseen time. Fill out the journal.
Done for the day.
Agent provocateur
GFIs1
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Quick update after this NO trade day:
Volume of Dax futures today was around 78K contracts which is half of the volume of a normal trading day.
GFIs1' rule is NO trade when US is on holiday - the result is correct - without this rule the system would have given a Monday signal leading to a loss.
Looking forward to our first proper trading day in this journal tomorrow.
GFIs1
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