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It seems that some people are starting to realize what this politically misguided and green ideology driven sanctions policy of the West is doing to them, while the majority of the rest of the world is distancing themselves from it in order not to shoot themselves in the knee. But even for those countries who not agree with this kind of western policies, the consequences through this policies are in many cases disastrous.
There is still a lot of the markets on us as even you have already addressed this a few weeks ago here in the thread.
In this thread I am writing about inflation and recession.
And I repeatedly said that the recession is already here!
Watch some countries - and we all can see that this scenario already had started. Not just on the charts but in reality of consumers and as well producers in EU.
Such said - the companies need to put on some very warm clothes for the next few years to survive.
The governments are not ready having concepts against. So we are in an empty space in the markets. Makes trading more difficult.
To summarize - we will see some weird moves in the indexes which will bring momentum for the those who understand the intense moves that are now and ahead in the near future.
The negative is that it throws out many beginner traders and those that are not 'feeling' their instrument. This is of course is a warning to some pip runners and beginners.
Know Your Instrument - aka KYI - is the key.
Don't fall for short time winners - they do not exist. Instead trade your plan - and stop trading if you have no good trading idea at hand.
The DAX during c(r)ash hours with a high (sic!) at 9:00 and a low at the exit 17:30 made a extreme down of 474 points! (Well - left some points on the table).
In the afternoon the Euro made a 20 year low. Especially against the Dollar, the Ruble and the Swiss Franc. Euro vs. Swiss Franc lower! and vs. Dollar near pari.
Oil came back 10%. Gold down as well.
btc$ slightly above 20k line - did not move
Inflation rising - Outlook not good for the second half year.
I agree, ps why did you change the rules and start trading most days of the week again?I thought you cut the trades to just 3 days a week, mon/wed/fri mostly?
Cheers.
@GFIs1 - although I'm not posting much I do still enjoy and appreciate your journal. You have a disciplined, methodic way of trading and it's great to see you succeed with it. I want to say both thanks and congratulations.
Like others here I have noticed not only fewer active journals, but much less activity overall. The site owner doesn't seem to show up much anymore, I haven't seen a webinar in ages, and I think a lot of users have simply migrated to other platforms. It's unfortunate, but I'm glad you're still here
Coming back to my earlier post here - and discussing the theme a bit deeper.
The European countries are trying to omit the word "recession" and replace it by the wording "ongoing inflation". In fact we see upon the definition of recession (Wiki): "In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending."
Why I am putting this on the plate?
• the recession begun with Covid - 2 years ago
• people were hindered to travel
• restrictions came over all industry
• a state driven lock down blocked a lot of companies to work effectively -> home office
• just in time deliveries failed - companies had to reduce or stop producing
• working people lost their jobs in every segment
• companies and services could not work properly (for many reasons) and went finally bankrupt Result: The above mentioned "spending" halted immediately
So the recession in the meaning of its name is here.
In the US, the NBER once defined a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. This became accepted worldwide as the standard definition of a recession.
Note, however, that it says real GDP. Which means that with inflation running at 8%, nominal GDP would have to grow even faster than that.
Even the bogus "core" inflation rate will not be exceeded by nominal GDP growth in the Eurozone. Instead, we will be looking at a deep contraction of several percentage points in real GDP. And when winter comes and huge heating bills have to be paid, consumers' disposable income will shrink a lot further, pushing the EU even deeper into recession. Many countries will call for fiscal relief to help lower income consumers deal with these rising energy costs but that won't solve the problem.
Meanwhile the EUR approaches parity with the USD and LaGarde wants to do more QE to stabilize the peripherals, which will cause even more inflationary pressures as import prices rise further.
What a mess.
EU leaders have shown themselves to be woefully incompetent and the ECB finds itself in the impossible position of trying to maintain fiscal solvency for its member states and currency stability for the bloc.
How this ultimately gets resolved is anyone's guess, but it will be a very painful road for a lot of Europeans.
