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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal


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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

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  #971 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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CurtisS View Post
I have read the entire thread and developed an interest in trading this system. I wanted to find out the entry and exit rules based on statistics about historical FDAX or DAX data....

Hi Curtis

My trading plan is based on the weekday statistics of the DAX. The entry and exit times instead have several
extra rules - based on Ichimoku Kumo, based on Gaps, based on special events like holidays, triple witch,
and of course news..
Then there are some spots on stops (sic!) and on volume.
All together should result in a positive gain.

So do not let you lead by statistics only.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #972 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Today a short from 09:30 to 14:00

Good trades
GFIs1


...stopped out -
direction is ok - but on Monday difficult without retracing

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  #973 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Today Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8664
exit @ 8641
result +23p


GFIs1

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  #974 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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GFIs1 View Post
Today Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8664



GFIs1

Good one, but stop? I had a short at 65.0 with 10 ticks stop but bailed too early on it.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #975 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Hi @xelaar

My stops on these Dax trades over several hours are quite often tricky with stops.
The best setting I found is 33 points when Dax is over 8000 and 30 points when
Dax is under 8000.
It does work over the longer time period.

Good trades!
GFIs1

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  #976 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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This week had 3 trades

Two negative with SL each 33 points
One positive +23 points
Weekly result -43 points

Result since week 2: plus 778 points

GFIs1

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  #977 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8586


GFIs1

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  #978 (permalink)
 CurtisS 
Frankfurt, Germany
 
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GFIs1 View Post
My trading plan is based on the weekday statistics of the DAX. The entry and exit times instead have several extra rules - based on Ichimoku Kumo, based on Gaps, based on special events like holidays, triple witch,
and of course news.. Then there are some spots on stops (sic!) and on volume.

So do not let you lead by statistics only.

So far, I have found out the following:

If you enter short on Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. and exit at 2:00 p.m. then you would have lost 53 % of trades between September 2006 and today (SL is 33). Other entry and exit times do not change the result much.

If you enter short only if the price at 9:30 a.m. is in the upper half of the opening range (price between 9:00 and 9:30) the result is still not positive.

I am aware of the no trade rules "previous day range not larger than 150 points", "2-day range not larger than 200 points", "futures expiry days", "news days", "holidays", "low volume days". I can't believe that these additional rules are the essential ones for making this system positive.

Can you point me further in the right direction, like "if the previous day was a down/up day and the current session opening range between 9:00 and 9:15 is broken towards the upside at 9:30, then the Wednesday rule is to enter short"?

Thanks for your support.

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  #979 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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CurtisS View Post
...

Can you point me further in the right direction, like "if the previous day was a down/up day and the current session opening range between 9:00 and 9:15 is broken towards the upside at 9:30, then the Wednesday rule is to enter short"?

Thanks for your support.

Hi Curtis

Thanks for backtesting wednesday.
The rules for the weekdays are not very complicated - but the wednesday rule set is complex.
If you look back in my journal just on wednesdays you will find >90% of the trades were short ones.
And the entry and exit time are very variable:
There are sets of 10:30 to 13:00, 9:30 to 15:30, 11:30 to 13:00 etc. depending on where the starting
30 minute candle is staying (some Kumo Rules here mentioned) - and there is even a long rule for 10:30 to 13:30.
The full rule set I can not reveal here.

One essential thing to point out is: The IB (30min) candle is the direction setter - depending on the weekday.
There is no "intra" 30min. rule here - just the plain 30 minutes.

As you see - with this rule set(s) there is no easy backtesting.

GFIs1

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  #980 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,681 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,470 given, 11,980 received


Today short 09:30 to 15:30

attention: EZB announcement 13:45h CET

Tomorrow "Tag der Deutschen Einheit" - closed!

GFIs1

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