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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal


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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

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  #801 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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podski View Post
It is a public holiday in Germany and a lot of other European countries ... so will anyone turn up or can we all have a day off ?

:-)

p

You can always have any day off - necessary and compulsory for brain health!.

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 podski 
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ratfink View Post
You can always have any day off - necessary and compulsory for brain health!.

Thanks man ...it's good to know that it has been signed off !

:-)

p

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  #803 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
Hi @CPRICE76 - thanks for following

1) only IFO and ZEW have special entry rules. Trades are made on IFO and ZEW days
2) no
3) there is slippage possible but I have very rarely trades where SL does not hold

Good trades
GFIs1


Thanks for the reply.Just to let you know I have positioned myself ahead of ZEW . Hoping I do not suffer major slippage if the number comes out weaker than expected. I am using a 12 tick stop @8241 in the cash not the future.

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  #804 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 8345

exit @ 8354

result -9 points

risk - medium

outlook - Wednesday conso - new alltime high already seen in this first IB..

GFIs1

edit: difficult at the alltimehigh to get some neat shorts....
BUT: for those who are still waiting for positive points - get out @ 14:30 @8336

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  #805 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Had promised some posts ago to show the bigger picture with the daily Dax
to get a feeling where price might go:
--> GFIs1 is leaning again out of the window
-> who bets against? lol



Chart speaks it's own language...
GFIs1

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  #806 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 16:00

entry @ 8352

exit @ 8382 SL

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - conso before a long weekend

GFIs1

Dax made another 8404 top - we hope to see a double top
this might be the turning point for lower prices... - lets follow!

So Monday will be NO GFIs1 trade (Pfingsten) and Wednesday is the
first day to look at again.

Have some nice days over Pfingsten
GFIs1


PS II: after having seen the top - some more normal days in Dax trading
will be for sure

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  #807 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had three trades:

one positive: 1 point
two negative: -9 - 30(SL) = -39
Total weekly points: - 38

Since week 2: +372 points

Not very encouraging week during this bullish move to new alltime highs.
As a conclusion how to trade near highs: be careful and lower your risk...

Looking forward to next week (no trade on Monday though)

GFIs1

PS: "For sell in May and go away"... it is too late now

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  #808 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:30 to 15:30

entry @ 8464

exit @ 8464

result 0 points

risk - medium

outlook - downmove for today expected

GFIs1

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  #809 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 14:30

entry @ 8378

exit @ 8326

result plus 52 points

risk - medium

outlook - tricky day with IFO numbers @ 10:00 plus Monday US memorial day (no GFIs1 trade then) - further downmove expected but waiting for the setup first.

GFIs1

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  #810 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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Nice trade! have a great w/e, Cheers

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  #811 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had 2 trades

One neutral trade 0 points
One positive trade plus 52 points (left some points on the table here)
Weekly total 52 points
Points since week 2: plus 424 points

GFIs1

PS: as mentioned - no trade on Monday (US memorial day)

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  #812 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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It is incredible to see the volume(s) on the indizes when US markets (plus GB market) are closed:
On the DAX we have around 13:30 less than 20K Dax futures traded...
For a normal day a volume of 100 to 130K is previewed.
Conclusion: there are MORE traders from outside DAX related countries that trade the future.
Be aware of this misproportion and avoid days with very low volumes!

GFIs1

after cash hours - lousy < 32'000 contracts

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  #813 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 11:30 to 15:30

entry @ 8394

exit @ 8355

result plus 39 points

risk - medium

outlook - wednesday down drift

GFIs1

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 Itchymoku 
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Hey, I've been subscribed to this journal for a few months and I can say with confidence that I believe you are consistent considering where you've started despite the draw-downs. Just out of curiosity, I was wondering if you trade for a living outside of the trades documented in this journal? (trading more volume and or trades per day?) I apologize if I haven't spotted where you've stated this in your journal or other threads you've had, I just find your journal to be very consistent day in and out compared to other journals on this forum.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #815 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Itchymoku View Post
Hey, I've been subscribed to this journal for a few months and I can say with confidence that I believe you are consistent considering where you've started despite the draw-downs. Just out of curiosity, I was wondering if you trade for a living outside of the trades documented in this journal? (trading more volume and or trades per day?) I apologize if I haven't spotted where you've stated this in your journal or other threads you've had, I just find your journal to be very consistent day in and out compared to other journals on this forum.

Hello @Itchymoku

Thanks for following and your nice words - I am trading several approaches and discuss different instruments here.
But only trading the Dax as I find to have more experience with that one. I do trading when on my 1 trade per day
basis only as previewed. So there is no stop moving or interfering with the exit time manually. It might be on several
days better to take profit earlier - but measured with screentime or with automatic execution the here discussed task
had been ok for me.
There are other approaches like the HiLo discussed in the other thread but this means higher margins (right now
20k EUR for one Dax future overnightwith IB) and of course this means higher risk too.
Both approaches are well together as the bigger picture influences always the intraday decisions.
The two systems are scalable so I am free to stack up ;-)

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #816 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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..not much movement expected. There are numbers (US BIP 1st quarter) in the afternoon.
Tomorrow we have the last trading day of May plus a friday - which means high volume
and hopefully some volatility.
Looking for tomorrow

GFIs1

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  #817 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax long 9:30 to 14:30

entry @ 8325

exit @ 8353

result plus 28 points

risk - medium

outlook - strong initial balance of 69 points - volume not so high - expecting crawling back here before US numbers

GFIs1

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  #818 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Looks like we have some good volume now but a battle above 8300. So the "crawling back"
mentioned in last post is having a hard time
My estimation of today here:



GFIs1

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 ratfink 
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GFIs1 View Post
Looks like we have some good volume now but a battle above 8300

Yes, its a good battle spot, from here are EW patterns for much lower (c8075) or much higher (c8700.) The usual POMO suspects know it too, ES is currently in short extensions, they need it back over 48.50 and then 54.50 to defeat the short setups and force a consolidation before higher again. Otherwise under last weeks lows they lose for a while and maybe in style.

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  #820 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had 2 trades:

2 positive trades of 39 + 28 points
Weekly result 67 points
Points since week 2: +491

Great weekend
GFIs1

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  #821 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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The yellow line made the way and had even passed 8400 in the closing 30 mins ;-)
Now we are on the red line to head lower - just for the beginning of june - chart here:



GFIs1

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  #822 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Closing @ 8306 - some 50 points lower than in the chart above...
means getting some more points on the down hill here next week

Have a nice weekend
GFIs1

..same on ES of course

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  #823 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 14:00

entry @ 8255

exit @ SL 8385

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - after Friday US downmove in the closing some further downmove expected (to 8150)

GFIs1

edit: seeing still the expected described scenario though

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  #824 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax long 10:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8269

exit @ 8239 (SL)

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - some pullback here in the morning before proceeding on the downleg

GFIs1

Edit: unfortunately the downmove earlier than previewed

EDIT II: now a hefty downmove highly possible... (as expected in earlier posts)

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  #825 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 09:30 to 14:00
.....

outlook - after Friday US downmove in the closing some further downmove expected (to 8150)

GFIs1


looks like that one is already history now

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  #826 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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GFIs1 View Post
looks like that one is already history now

Indeed - and you made a good timely comment on likely fast decline in AnasParis thread, kept me out of trouble, thanks!

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  #827 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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ratfink View Post
Indeed - and you made a good timely comment on likely fast decline in AnasParis thread, kept me out of trouble, thanks!


Just updated this one with a daily chart to show that downmove with supports in Anas thread!
Good Trades!
GFIs1

ah yes - goal now 8066... on this leg

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  #828 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
...........
ah yes - goal now 8066... on this leg

....which arrived....
Here the bigger picture in the daily..
might come like this - or NOT

anyway - take a deep breath:



GFIs1

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 Eris 
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Hi GFIs1, Well done with the target. I am curious to learn how it was calculated, Or is it a proprietary tool?

Regards

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  #830 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Hi GFIs1, Well done with the target. I am curious to learn how it was calculated, Or is it a proprietary tool?

Regards

Much easier
Look in above daily chart - "turning point" from 03/15 which was previous last high.
I only took the closing of the last long candle (8053) and rounded up to a attainable
level. xx66 is often filled.

GFIs1

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  #831 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax long 09:30 to 14:30

entry @ 8105

exit @ 8090

result - minus 15 points (tight SL)

risk - medium

outlook - inside day expected - watching the downside carefully (tighter stop) - US numbers 14:30!

GFIs1

Edit: This week the signals were not in sync! So the slip in prices (as discussed in the other threads)
wiped out some "normal" behaviour. No problem here - this happens.
Looks like volume is ok - and the fear in the markets is accelerating. - This means some good moves
next week
Have a great weeend!

Edit II: @podski: YOU GOT the hat - I am taking the french mustard instead (pure of course)

Edit III: After having seen that price did not come back into previous day's range after 10h - the bulls
had not really an edge.

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 podski 
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There will be hat eating in Brussels if that tight stop doesn't get taken out !!

Best of sporting luck !

p

edit: 10:01 ... Gulp !

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 ratfink 
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Best to both of you!

We closed the open gap at 8110 yesterday, from 7/8 May, so an inside day consolidation would be reasonable, maybe some sort of fourth wave or a stronger reversal. There are two remaining open bull gaps from 29 and 30 Apr around 7815 and 7875 cash if it does accelerate strongly to the downside, but that may be a much later story as we have now started leaving bear gaps above us.

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 podski 
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podski View Post

There will be hat eating in Brussels if that tight stop doesn't get taken out !!

Best of sporting luck !

p

edit: 10:01 ... Gulp !


I was a little worried about the brass buckle .. !!



p

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  #835 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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the Dax had some weakness throughout the session.
Even when the (unbelieveable (fake as always?)) US numbers came up
the DAX price did NOT come back to yesterday's VWAP.
This sounds good for another dive next week.
That will also be the last days before rolling over contracts.

GFIs1

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  #836 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had three negative trades

two with SL of 30 and one with tight SL of 15 points
weekly result minus 75 points
result since week 2 (2013) plus 416 points

GFIs1

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  #837 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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After having had good volume and some strong moves out of normal timeline
we have to be prepared for some other stronger moves before roll over on
June 21st. Expecting to see lower volumes then in July and August.
Friday range was higher than 150 points - so no normal GFIs1 trade on Monday!
Hope to see two good trades next week on Wednesday and Friday.

Great weekend
GFIs1

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 ratfink 
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Your analysis all week was superb, unfortunately the daily rotations were unkind to your timing system, that's trading as you say so well, and sometimes the luck is missing.

Thanks a lot for all the brave work and here's to next week!

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 AnasParis 
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Hi GFIs1 and all


This is just an idea for tomorrow.




Good evening!

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 GFIs1 
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Hi @AnasParis

this is a good glimpse for a further upmove tomorrow - if it comes...
I am looking for a nice downmove on Wednesday (short as always)
and let the markets play tomorrow

Have a great evening - thanks for the great input!
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 8204

exit @ 8212

result minus 8 points

risk - medium

outlook - further down on this leg - some indecision within 1h Kumo was normal

GFIs1

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Heart
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medium means 30 point stop?! so no stop out today?!

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 GFIs1 
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Hi @Heart

Thanks for input. You have calculated fine ;-)
To clarify - 10 days before rolling over contracts (triple witch day) the wiggle room normally
is higher than normal. Therefore my "normal" stop room expands by 10 points - means
40 points - up until rolling over day. I am sorry not having mentioned this here again.
You will find this earlier in this thread plus discussions accordingly. I think to have mentioned
the higher movements already last week (means including SL settings).
After rolling over the stops are set to the "tighter" 30 points "normal" settings as usual.
Hope you did not have troubles out of this.

Good trades
GFIs1

PS: Anyway - the foreseen short was not coming - as price is still in the 1h Kumo...
So we need to sit this out

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 GFIs1 
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..Some downtrend seems to continue (morning call was a little bit too early ;-) )
Seeing 8066 to have as low of today goal - tomorrow some conso
and Friday:
further down.
Seems a realistic scenario on the Dax..

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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..Some downtrend seems to continue (morning call was a little bit too early ;-) )
Seeing 8066 to have as low of today goal - tomorrow some conso
and Friday:
further down.
Seems a realistic scenario on the Dax...

...rolled like previewed - only a bit earlier




Looks like 8000 is history for some time.
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Today some IB to resistance 8196
then downmove til' 14:30

Looking then into the bigger picture to see where price is going to

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8154

exit @ 8114 (SL) - low was 8111

result minus 40 points

risk - medium (40pts ;-) )

outlook - above scenario was wrong - looks like price is heading to 8212 area again

Will have a look into RollOver weeks to avoid losses...

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Dax long 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8154

exit @

result

risk - medium (40pts ;-) )

outlook - above scenario was wrong - looks like price is heading to 8212 area again

Hi @GFIs1,

I am just curious, 8151,57 is the high from the years 2000 + 2007 and the entry price is 188 points above yesterday´s low.
Any concerns about that and especially, that yesterday´s DAX range exceeded the 150 points barrier?

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 GFIs1 
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Hi @GFIs1,

I am just curious, 8151,57 is the high from the years 2000 + 2007 and the entry price is 188 points above yesterday´s low.
Any concerns about that and especially, that yesterday´s DAX range exceeded the 150 points barrier?

Hi Abde

I was concerned too this morning for that Friday trade - 30mins. signals were contradictory with 1h signals in
the same chart... so some indecision is normal.
I was not so concerned about the yesterday's movement (gap included) as I am only looking at range of the
cash hours 09:00 to 17.30 - and there the range was 144 points according to my smart calculator in the chart:



So today's trade started
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had two negative trades

First ( minus 8 points)
Second (minus 40 points )

Weekly total minus 48 points

Points since week 2 2013 now 368

Was not as previewed and SL hit on Friday was 3 points above low of the day

Looking forward into RollOver week - trades as normal - Dax future I will trade Monday
and Wednesday as normal - changing on Thursday to the September contract.
For those who think vola is too high and unpredictable: stay out next week.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 09:30 to 14:00

entry @ 8196

exit @ 8233

result plus 37 points

risk - medium

outlook - today some move up

GFIs1

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...Will have a look into RollOver weeks to avoid losses...

GFIs1

SL settings adjusted after watching Dax price:

medium
a) if Dax entry < 8000: 30 points
b) if Dax entry > 8000: 33 points

high / or 7 days before RollOver
a) if Dax entry < 8000: 40 points
b) if Dax entry > 8000: 44 points

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 11:30 to 15:30

entry @ 8257

exit @ 8212

result plus 45 points

risk medium

outlook - some down dynamic has started - waiting for the second wave down today. FED decision 18:30
looks quite shaky

GFIs1

finally - it worked

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 Abde 
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Dax short 11:30 to 15:30

entry @ 8257

exit @

result

risk medium

outlook - some down dynamic has started - waiting for the second wave down today. FED decision 18:30
looks quite shaky

GFIs1

Hi @GFIs1,

What is your reason for todays entry at 11:30 instead of 09:30? Is there a exception rule which you maybe explained somewher, that I have overlooked?

Thanks for your clarification.

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 GFIs1 
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Hi @GFIs1,

What is your reason for todays entry at 11:30 instead of 09:30? Is there a exception rule which you maybe explained somewher, that I have overlooked?

Thanks for your clarification.

Hi @Abde
easy... special rule - if price starts outside the previous day's range and enters the PrevDay range in the first
30 minutes (Initial Balance IB).
If we had entered 09:30 short... ooooooops!
It is obvious that after a 30min IB which has the same range than PrevDay range - some rebound is necessary.
Hope this helps.

GFIs1

edit: even entering @ 11:30 was suboptimal - as price was running up for 30 minutes more. That might have been
to be seen after price went out of PrevDay bound on the lower side.
In fact - I am not looking to make exception rules from the exception - most important is to stay in the game
over the longer term - and I think this worked today.

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 Abde 
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Hi @Abde
easy... special rule - if price starts outside the previous day's range and enters the PrevDay range in the first
30 minutes (Initial Balance IB).
If we had entered 09:30 short... ooooooops!
It is obvious that after a 30min IB which has the same range than PrevDay range - some rebound is necessary.
Hope this helps.

GFIs1

edit: even entering @ 11:30 was suboptimal - as price was running up for 30 minutes more. That might have been
to be seen after price went out of PrevDay bound on the lower side.
In fact - I am not looking to make exception rules from the exception - most important is to stay in the game
over the longer term - and I think this worked today.

@GFIs1

It makes perfect sense your special rule!

Thanks for your statement, and keep up the good work.

Abde

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 GFIs1 
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Tomorrow - I will head for the September Dax contract.
So for Friday trade the new contract will be used.
Today the volume so far >80K is good to trade in normal environment.
I assume that the Thursday movements will not be that extreme -
but Friday might give some new momentum.

GFIs1

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 ratfink 
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finally - it worked

I never doubt 'Cool Hand Luke' !

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 GFIs1 
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Looking @ the current situation - we need to see price falling in the daily Kumo
tomorrow some more points down to take out the support of 7890.
MAKE it or BREAK it...
So if tomorrows (maybe today's) movement down is heavy enough - the
further decline on the Dax is nearly guaranteed.
It would supply my previews earlier made in this thread.
Will be commented after it will have happened

GFIs1

edit: battle @ 8K to see it in the near future from underneath

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 GFIs1 
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Today we had quite a strong down movement in all indices.
For the Dax - writing now before closing cash hour - we had already seen
a HiLo of 158 points.
As we are in the RollOver week and some volatility is given - the trade for
tomorrow is only for strong nerves - others may abstrain.
I am still having the the idea that prices - after taking out 7890 - the
price will head lower...
But time will tell - looking for tomorrow!

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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..
I am still having the the idea that prices - after taking out 7890 - the
price will head lower...
But time will tell - looking for tomorrow!

GFIs1

Update after hours:
7890 had been taken out

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 GFIs1 
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Today - I decided - on triple witch day - having Prev Day >150 points - price in daily Kumo
switching on the new contract - high volume and volatility before and after hours:
to not take a trade today.
Protecting capital

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had

two positive trades: (37 + 45 points)
weekly result plus 82 points
total points since week 2 2013: plus 450

GFIs1

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Good week, have a great weekend, Cheers

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Thanks for the nice journal. Very elegant still of trading you are the DAX KILLER in futures.io (formerly BMT)
Have good weekend.
Cheers

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 GFIs1 
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A nice number arrived as weekly Dax low.
Things were developing faster than previewed.
All ideas and preview charts matched.
New lower areas are to be coming soon into the lower vola months of summer.
Need to be prepared for some strange moves in the indices in the coming weeks.

Good weekend
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:00 to 13:00

entry @ 7805

exit @ 7702

result 103 points

risk SL tight

outlook - further down on this leg

GFIs1

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.. is closing @ 7396 - after having touched 7340 area...

as prepared in previous posts... and I am still sure to see those events
in a very short time from NOW.

GFIs1

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Dax short 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7911

exit @ 7941 (SL)

result -30 points

risk - medium

outlook - some conso on this level expected

GFIs1

edit: unfortunately no second wave today - as price entered 60 min. Kumo - after speech of Draghi
looking forward to Friday - to make this week very positive

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 16:30

entry @ 8015

exit @ 7937

result 78 points

risk - SL 30 points - thin signal

outlook - price in daily Kumo - some conso today - Half Year Results

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Mid year :-)

This week had three short trades:

103 -30(SL) + 78 points
Total weekly points: 151

Points since week 2 2013: 601

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7904

exit @ 7985

result 81 points

risk - medium

outlook - second wave trading here - thereafter a short on this downleg is expected

GFIs1

1) It is about time to say good bye to 8'000 here
2) rotating back at least to POC @ 7942 expected

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Dax long 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7904

exit @ 7985

result 81 points

risk - medium

outlook - second wave trading here - thereafter a short on this downleg is expected

GFIs1

1) It is about time to say good bye to 8'000 here
2) rotating back at least to POC @ 7942 expected

@GFIs1

Congrats,

excellent work, where did your first wave start ?

Thanks and good trades.

rw48gmx

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 GFIs1 
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Hi @rw48gmx

THe first wave started with that long last friday afternoon,
In fact I was only looking at the first 30 minutes of the opening. There price
went rapidly up and a "second wave" was foreseen. It came out as planned.
Hope this helps

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Now - at a calm (?) day we will have a look @ the Dax and movements.
As the price in the 1h is in the Kumo - there is some erratic up and down
as what we do have to expect. Fortunately there was no GFIs1 trade on
the schedule though
What we can see is that the price is really testing ups and down of the Kumo.
I am expecting to see a nice down movement tomorrow Wednesday (as always).
Look @ the black arrow here:



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 ratfink 
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Hi @GFIs1, I am still open to upside from here as the rise from 7650 to 8050 looked like a pretty clean 5 wave impulse move and I struggle to see the fit for now.

We may have just completed an abc correction today or are still in a more complex correction with lower needed first. Pushing above 7960 and 8060 may confirm significant further upside - maybe even new year highs as the drop from 8500 was not a convincing impulse (imho) and there are lots of open gaps up there. That said, losing 7800 and 7650 could be terminal for this summer's market and violent drops could follow soon. Who knows? Maybe the Kumo!

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 GFIs1 
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Hi @ratfink

Thanks for your input - the correction is surely not over.
As you have read my post
I assume that you see the further needed downtrend here and now
As I am pointing out in my 1h chart in previous post is that the price HAS to get out of the Kumo on the
lower line - and from there it is still a long way to 7430.
We have seen that the levels of 8K are definitely over and that some picking for lower accepted levels
are obvious.
I am sure to see lower prices soon.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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NO trade today - conflicting rules

outlook
1) a day befor US Independence (US closed)
2) Friday open again and many US numbers
3) today a short expected
4) a upcoming downgap visible
Looks like we get two interesting days today and Friday

GFIs1

...glad to have not taken a trade today

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 GFIs1 
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US closed...

Dax gapped up to Tuesday low levels.
Looks like that gap of Wednesday now could close today.
This would help for further downmoves on this leg!

Good trades
GFIs1


... very low volume 13:20 ~30K contracts

..after Draghi/ECB - upmove to 8K again - to touch Kumo resistance.
Kijun Sen has come down to 8043.. so not much margin left.

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 GFIs1 
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In the bigger picture of the Dax we see a final upmove yesterday and today.
KijunSen (blue line) came down today to 8035 - exact this price has been
reached in the last half hour.
Kumo is still getting stronger - the long scenarion discussed in the thread
is still valid.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 16:00

entry @ 8023

exit @ 7887

result 136 points

risk - medium

outlook - perfect setup - price sitting on the upper level this morning

GFIs1

Looks not too bad - does it? @ 15:00

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 GFIs1 
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This week had two trades

one long and one short trade - both positive:
(81 + 136 points)
weekly result plus 217 points

Points since week 2 2013: 818 points

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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.. on Monday - today's move was to long..

Next trade on Wednesday foreseen.

Have a great weekend
GFIs1

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 ratfink 
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Very nice week Maestro!

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 GFIs1 
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Some trend testing this morning - volume looks still ok.
Price might get up to 7923 - means VWAP from Friday.
The starting moves are not really encouraging though.
The scenario of opening today really higher which was
discussed in an other thread did not happen.

Conclusion:
1) conso day
2) not much vola expected
3) trend still down in the daily
4) bespoken down scenario still valid

GFIs1

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 ratfink 
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Yes @GFIs1, I think Dax is at a big decision point/time right now, could be interesting week as we had
fast up and the down while in the Kumo area, was interesting to see where this is in the waves.

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 GFIs1 
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Interestingly the today's normal trade would have worked - but:
the battle @ 8000 did not work out - by 0,5 point
The daily Kumo above actual price is really hard work.
Expecting some resting at this level today before it
may head down again.
The main trade will be on Wednesday (a short I assume)
and there will be the proof of the downleg scenario.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Nice try - price moves above KijunSen within daily Kumo.
Looks a bit as a summer thing - volumes lower than normal.
KijunSen today is @ 8026 and base of Kumo for the next
weeks still @ 7996.
Expect to see tomorrow a good short on this one.

GFIs1

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After some discussion in the HiLo ES thread about development of
ES and Dax in the coming weeks I try to post here a actual view of the weekly Dax:



We can see that
a) Price is far above Kumo which works as a good support right now
b) This weekly candle is nw out of the red spiral - which means a further (fast) down movement is possible
c) we can see at the flesh near touching support we have the green spiral which means another turn up again
will be highly probable at this level and after interpretation of the form of the Kumo.

All in all we do have a flush down to 7400 area before price is sharply turning and may give higher highs this year.

This is a scenario how GFIs1 sees and interpretes here (leaning out of the window - hehe) but there a zillion
of other views - so decide on your gut and view! Good trades

GFIs1

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Dax short 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 8027

exit @ 8046

result minus 19 points

risk - medium

outlook - price in daily Kumo - expecting down after the long moves before

GFIs1

hmmm: not even 50K volume @ 14:30h - what a slow market!

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there were some messages from Bernank!
that were not clear after this speech in the US session.

BUT - have a look at today



total crazy reaction - isnt'it?

GFIs1

PS: Dax price rests still in daily KUMO - I would name this "stops fishing"

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GFIs1 View Post
total crazy reaction - isnt'it?

GFIs1

PS: Dax price rests still in daily KUMO - I would name this "stops fishing"

Total crazy reaction - yes!

Dax behaves today like a drunk pilot in a fog cloud with an broken autopilot.

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Abde View Post
Total crazy reaction - yes!

Dax behaves today like a drunk pilot in a fog cloud with an broken autopilot.


hehe.... very true

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8209

exit @ 8242 (SL)

result minus 33 points

risk - medium

outlook - price still in daily Kumo - some downmove expected this morning after a strange Thursday upmove

GFIs1

not even 35'000 contracts for this morning - where are the traders? LOL

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Still in by a tick ...

That would be nice !!

:-)

p

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 GFIs1 
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This week had two trades

both negative - 19 - 33 points

total weekly points minus 52

total since week 2/2013: 766 points

Comment to this week - traded days: starting price was in daily cloud
which means some flight without clear sight. Might mean to omit a trade on
such days. The warning is given in the outlook of any preview.
Second important point - volume is very low compared to normal weeks.
All rules are based to work on a stable mid to high volume.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:00 to 14:00

entry @ 8265

exit @ 8232

result plus 33 points

risk - tight stop

outlook - price still in daily Kumo - some consolidation on this level - risk is quite high at this point

GFIs1

edit 11:15 - Vol < 20K ---> very low - we are on track but: attention anyway!

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 8207

exit @ 8207 (SL @ BE)

result 0 points

risk - medium

outlook - down before Bernie's speech this afternoon // market looks already a bit nervous...

GFIs1

Special remark @AnasParis: price is wading through the hourly Kumo @ 10:45

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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 10:30 to 14:30

Hi @GFIs1, would be interested to hear what factors most influence your choice of time to enter trades e.g. the way the balance is developing or patterns or rules?
Thanks

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 GFIs1 
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Hi @ratfink

..only based on rules. These are longtime statistical terms out of the 30min chart.

GFIs1

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