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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal


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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

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  #701 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 16:00

entry @ 7931

exit @ 7961 (SL)

result -30 points

risk - medium

outlook - looks like following that short leg today

with low volume and market undecision results in a red end of a red week

GFIs1

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  #702 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had 3 trades - all red :-o

Negative trades (- 9, - 30, -30) total -69

Points since week two now: plus 191

Next week will be a short week - so we need to see where the travel goes.

Good weekend all!
GFIs1

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 AnasParis 
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Take care of you

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  #704 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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AnasParis View Post
Take care of you

Thanks!
Had a quick look back into last years march/beginning of april.
The amazing fact is that out of five weeks there were four
weeks with negative results.
Looks like march is shaky with these rules - as I have not
found any month with such dense negative results.
This might give a hint for future trading during march then.

GFIs1...
..how about:
negate all rules ONLY for that month here?

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  #705 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax long 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 8028

exit @ 8024

result minus 4 points

risk - medium

outlook - holding 8000 today...

NOW looking for the last trade of the week on Wednesday - this will be a trade
taken early to the close

GFIs1

Last Update:
Looking for 7812 in the next days. On Wednesday of course ;-)

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 16:30

entry @ 7884

exit @ 7806

result 78 points

risk - medium

outlook - last day with high volume expected before a long weekend. So the correction
should take place today. Tomorrow no GFIs1 trade!

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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...means nothing good ;-)



GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 8003

exit @ 8033 SL

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - further rotating back to 7974

GFIs1

..still in troubled water

ouch!,

just one trader to another, I am sure hoping those aren't live points lost, because of the EUR/USD translation, such an amount is magnified almost 140%

say it ain't so....

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  #709 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax long 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 8028

exit @ 8024

result minus 4 points

risk - medium

outlook - holding 8000 today...

NOW looking for the last trade of the week on Wednesday - this will be a trade
taken early to the close

GFIs1

Last Update:
Looking for 7812 in the next days. On Wednesday of course ;-)

The 7812 will be reached soon.
Then 7750 could be next little support.
Down-development as expected.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #710 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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kronie View Post
ouch!,

just one trader to another, I am sure hoping those aren't live points lost, because of the EUR/USD translation, such an amount is magnified almost 140%

say it ain't so....

Hi @kronie

Thanks for input - yes - 30 points SL means minus 750 Euro on the Dax future. This is
calculated (statistics) to be the best desaster stop in the intraday trading system here.
No panic - the gain this year is still positive (will post end of march result soon).
Looking back at last year's total result: please see posts no 537 and 538 in this thread.

GFIs1

Update 11:27h:
7812 reached (posted above) which means 1'800 Euro in plus right now.
The trade has not finished

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  #711 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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for our US friends wake up to see then


THE 2nd FLUSH


GFIs1

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AnasParis View Post



Elliott: ABC...



Daily view.





A is done

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 GFIs1 
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This week had only 2 trades (short week)

One trade negative minus 4 points
one trade positive plus 78 points
Weekly total plus 74 points

Total first three months 2013: plus 265 points

Happy Easter!

GFIs1

(sorry wrong title - should read "Result for week 13")

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Have a good, and long weekend!

See you next week.

Anas

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 09:30 to 15:00

entry @ 7849

exit @ 7897

result 48 points

risk - medium

outlook - a little bullish day (to 7902) after the long weekend pause - expecting a move down from tomorrow

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 7943

exit @ 7950

result minus 7 points

risk - medium

outlook - steady down movement

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 09:30 to 16:10?


GFIs1


May be a bad non-manufacturing ISM...

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 7831

exit @ 7693

result 138 points

risk - medium

outlook - no more new highs in sight.. so slowly moving down

GFIs1

looking to take out last low of this swing and go down to 7712
was quicker than expected - before 12h 7722... ;-)
15 minutes later 7702.. here we go


...have a look at the bigger picture for the next few weeks 2 posts down here

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 GFIs1 
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Now that we have killed short daily Kumo there are some levels to have in mind for the
NEXT FEW days:

One support sits on 7400 exactly (might bounce a little right there before moving south)

and the main goal to reach in the next 4 weeks: 7212

Happy shorting :-)

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Have here a new pic of the expected downmove to 72xx:



GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had three trades:

One trade negative - -7 points
Two trades positive: 48 + 138 points

Weekly result plus 179 points
Points since week one: plus 444

GFIs1

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 Daytrader999 
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 7831

exit @ 7693

result 138 points

WOW, Congrats again, what an awesome trade !

Looks like the best daily result ever...?

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 AnasParis 
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 7831

exit @ 7693

result 138 points

risk - medium

outlook - no more new highs in sight.. so slowly moving down

GFIs1

looking to take out last low of this swing and go down to 7712
was quicker than expected - before 12h 7722... ;-)
15 minutes later 7702.. here we go


...have a look at the bigger picture for the next few weeks 2 posts down here




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 GFIs1 
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No trade today as the Friday range exceeded the limits.
So no normal Monday development expected today.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 14:30

entry @ 7698

exit @ 7728 (SL)

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - further down.. which will happen soon - but around daily Kumo some turbulences

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 7833

exit @ 7803

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - slight further up... (attention US numbers 14:30)
EDIT: the buyers were not longer stepping in - on some news (?) the price dropped drastically...
so back on square one @7695 should be next...

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 2 negative trades with SL

Weekly result minus 60 points
Total points since week 1: 384

Happy hot weekend
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 10:00 to 14:00

entry @ 7752

exit @ 7732 (tight SL)

result minus 20 points

risk - difficult to trade - tight stop/survey or no trade

outlook - price is still in Kumo - not much movement expected

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 7707

exit @ 7567

result 140 points

risk - medium

outlook - slide down on this leg

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 7707

...Looks like you can bank another very nice profitable move today !

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 GFIs1 
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Daytrader999 View Post
...Looks like you can bank another very nice profitable move today !

Yes indeed:
For the not so eloquent daytrader - a short bet on the Dax only on Wednesday's is a 90% bet

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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A snapshot here to view where the Dax might head in the near future:



..as we can see some down to 72xx is highly probable.

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
A snapshot here to view where the Dax might head in the near future:


..as we can see some down to 72xx is highly probable.

GFIs1

Well, first we have to crack the 400s...but I generally agree, especially the pullback is the same as the one mapped out in my head, maybe 50pt more, but the region seems likely...time will tell.

vvhg

PS: Nice profit you got there today!

Hic Rhodos, hic salta.
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Dax short 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 7707

exit @

result

risk - medium

outlook - slide down on this leg

GFIs1



I think you should take your profits because it's too much money for one day


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 GFIs1 
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here:



GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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As a GFIs1 rule fixes to not trade for two days after a Hi/Lo of > 250 points:
Today the range reached 256 points during cash hours.
So we have NO MORE TRADES left this week

This week we had two trades
one negative (-20 points)
one positive (+140 points)

weekly result +120 points

Total points since week one: 504

Happy rest of the week
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7510

exit @ 7540 (SL)

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - buyers are missing for the week start - so some downmove indicated. Longterm still 7190 in sight.

GFIs1

unfortunately stopped out... - watch on Wednesday - IFO day !!

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 GFIs1 
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Quite some uncertainty! Still!!
Normally on Monday - money is coming in again after the weekend... Which means
normally some bullish behaviour. As the price started from within 30 min Kumo
some strange undecided development was obvious - which did not prevent from
making a trade though.
For tomorrow I am expecting some more move up (not much) which will NOT be
traded here. (Resistance on the daily is 7660 which is nearly out of normal movement).
Then from Wednesday expecting to see some major down movements - as we are
heading right now a resistance area which prevents from further bullish actions.

Good trades!
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Since some days back we had in the Hi/Lo 2 valid long signals and one short signal in between.
Expecting now a longer leg down after the price here (maybe tomorrow) will give the next valid
short signal. That down movement has two major supports @ 7396 and 7194 which should be
reached within the next two weeks.



GFIs1

Edit: Looking at the daily chart we have today a rare 4 short candles in a row. The last
occurences of 4 similar shorts were one in September and one in October last year. Looking for a long
candle tomorrow before the shorts could come in again.

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 AnasParis 
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7550...

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 GFIs1 
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yep - looks not too bad ;-)

Thanks @AnasParis

who gives more? 7570 or 7592 to consider before going down - let's see

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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... a new valid short signal here:



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 GFIs1 
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Now looks good after reaching 7600...
either a quick reversal here or some push up after this level:



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 GFIs1 
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...Edit: Looking at the daily chart we have today a rare 4 short candles in a row... Looking for a long candle tomorrow before the shorts could come in again.

That long candle is quite visible now.
Tomorrow's movement will be very interesting.

Waiting to see the IFO numbers of 10:00h before entering the trade tomorrow...

Good trades!
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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No trade today because yesterday's range exceeded 150 points.
Intraday we had 223 points on Tuesday.
Next trade on Friday.

GFIs1

PS: does not really looking short right now ;-)

next resistance @ 7712 in the daily

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 GFIs1 
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... a new valid short signal here:



GFIs1

Here it is: (21 hours after post above...)



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 GFIs1 
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To underline the change of direction in previous posts - here are the IFO numbers which are lower than
last month:

"Der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex für Deutschland notiert für April bei 104,4. Im Vormonat hatte er noch bei 106,7 gestanden. Erwartet wurde er hingegen im Bereich 106,2. " **

GFIs1

** source: DerivateCheck

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 Eyalor8 
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To underline the change of direction in previous posts - here are the IFO numbers which are lower than
last month:

"Der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex für Deutschland notiert für April bei 104,4. Im Vormonat hatte er noch bei 106,7 gestanden. Erwartet wurde er hingegen im Bereich 106,2. " **

GFIs1

** source: DerivateCheck

Can you please translate and explain? Change of direction? Do you think consolidation is over?

Thanks
Eyal

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 GFIs1 
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Can you please translate and explain? Change of direction? Do you think consolidation is over?

Thanks
Eyal

Hi @Eyalor8
..was only speaking of last "UP"-leg... now change to downleg here again..
Over all in the bigger picture we are still on the down path. This had not been changed
by this fast conso on that level (just my opinion).

Good Trades
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 Eyalor8 
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Yes, and the experts from DZ Bank also agree: "signaling a low point in late April early May of 7390..."
Eyalor8

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 GFIs1 
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A snapshot here to view where the Dax might head in the near future:



..as we can see some down to 72xx is highly probable.

GFIs1

@Eyalor8 "YES!"
still holding my post from last week with the bigger picture in mind - this scenario
is highly probable

GFIs1

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 AnasParis 
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Imminent drop goal 7600?

Stop 7630.


Same signal on CAC40.


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 AnasParis 
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Stop 7730

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Stop 7730

Hello Anas,
Does it mean you entered short at 7000, and your Stop Loss at 7730?

Eyalor8

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 GFIs1 
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..will be the final round (this month) to see where the journey goes to..

Here still looking to see that downleg to 71xx (Dax) fulfilled soon.

Good trades!
GFIs1


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..will be the final round (this month) to see where the journey goes to..

Here still looking to see that downleg to 71xx (Dax) fulfilled soon.

Good trades!
GFIs1


Good Morning GFI,
Why the last round? What about Monday the 30th?
And Yes, the current leg seems to me already fully developed with 52 bars (5000 vb) and 362562 volume traded, and 5.56% change, compared to 5.13% in a leg of the same magnitude (the beginning of March). Also Friday is traditionally a good day for closing up a leg and taking profit by the commercials... We shall soon see.

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 GFIs1 
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...yes, the current leg seems to me already fully developed with 52 bars (5000 vb) and 362562 volume traded, and 5.56% change, compared to 5.13% in a leg of the same magnitude (the beginning of March). Also Friday is traditionally a good day for closing up a leg and taking profit by the commercials... We shall soon see.


Thanks for the interesting numbers for this leg - have not all collected like you did.
Next levels down for short consolidation: @ 7700 and 7512

Good trades!
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short from 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 7818

exit @ 7815

result plus 3 points

risk - medium

outlook - strong resistance above (daily kumo), US BIP @ 14:30 - end of month Tuesday...

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Seeing the last day of the month on Tuesday and Wednesday exchange is closed:

GFIs1 will Trade on Monday and Tuesday (last of the month)
as well as on Friday. So three trades foreseen if the vola is not extraordinary.

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short from 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 7818

exit @

risk - medium

outlook - strong resistance above (daily kumo), US BIP @ 14:30 - end of month Tuesday...

GFIs1

13:30??? Isn't the US report at 14:30?

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 GFIs1 
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13:30??? Isn't the US report at 14:30?

US BIP is 14:30, GFIs1 Friday trade ends 13:30 on a short
GFIs1

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 AnasParis 
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Eyalor8 View Post
Hello Anas,
Does it mean you entered short at 7000, and your Stop Loss at 7730?

Eyalor8


Hi Eyalor8

Sorry! I saw your question late but the answer is no longer valid.

DAX was at 7700 and I proposed a short at this level with a stop at 7730.

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 2 trades and quite a high price range thus not all previewed trades

One trade negative -30 points (SL)
one trade positive +3 points

weekly result -27 points
points since first week: 477 points

Have a great weekend
looking for a intersting week next week...
Trades are scheduled for Monday, Tuesday and Friday

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 10:00 to 12:30

entry @ 7862

exit @ 7832 (SL)

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - price in daily Kumo - still bullish support til' wednesday/thursday - don't force until the situation is more clear (by the end of the week)
edit: looking to reach for 7912 today before retracement can start ****

GFIs1

****edit 2: 7912 reached after market... ;-)
really intersting to look at tomorrow's trade

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 16:30

entry @ 7951

exit @ 7913

result plus 38 points

risk - medium

outlook - last day of month some conso expected

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 7970

exit @ 7985 (tight SL)

result minus 15 points

risk - medium but tight SL today

outlook - 8K is a heavy barrier - some conso before US numbers this afternoon

GFIs1

edit: without any direction from the start

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

... outlook - 8K is a heavy barrier - some conso before US numbers this afternoon

GFIs1

edit: without any direction from the start

Two interesting things were to see on that particular day:
1) Price was sitting under the 8K psychological barrier. In the morning very little volume was to see.
2) No distinctive direction

After US numbers - boom - Volume came in and price was moving fast to make a new high on this leg.
End of the day the daily volume was back to normal. Price range was 177 points (which leads us to
skip Monday's trade).
Review on this trade:
a) it was good to adjust the stop loss (tighter) under condition of 8K barrier, US numbers and uncertainty
b) trade hit the SL
c) we missed the great upspike after US numbers - which would be the same under normal conditions too..
d) preview of the day (quote above) was on the good side -
So the loss of 15 points here does not change our result heavily. The risk management was good in this case.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 3 trades

two negative (-30SL - 15 tight SL)
one positive +38
weekly total - 7 points
points since week 2: +470 points

outlook: skipping Monday trade due to 177 range of Friday

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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No trade today - due to the high range of last Friday: 177 points

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 AnasParis 
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 GFIs1 
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Thanks @AnasParis for the Dax preview
Seeing the same - some consolidation under pressure down to 8012
and from there a new bullish move to kill the last High from 2007 as
price was coming near on Friday.

Good Trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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As the new alltime High this morning showed finally up - some upmove is highly probable.
Next target is around 8220...
Tomorrow Wednesday some cashing in is expected which means lower prices.
Higher level might go up to 86xx now.

Good trades
GFIs1

ahh... you ask - by when 82xx? .... TODAY

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 Only 
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funny that dax makes the new all time high in may, wasnt there something about "sell in may and go away"

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Hi GFIs1,

Thanks very much for your thread.

I'm never quite sure whether I should read it in the morning before I trade as sometimes it "over influences" me .

Anyway I have a few questions about how you trade and how you have come up with some of the numbers ... and how come you ignore some. I'm not saying that I know better but just ... putting it out there.

1. Why the 30 Points SL. Is it related to the average daily noise ? Is it a percentage of the ADR ... did it come to you in a dream .. is it based on any particular type of bad trading day (like range bound days) etc ?

2. You take no account of "conventional" measures of trend, pivots, measures of excess or target ADR .... ever. I've noticed a few times that this would be useful. Do you ever consider adding them in ?

3. At times like this (all time high) do you foresee any more "special" rules ??

Give them a shot .. sorry if you have addressed this elsewhere in the past !

p

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podski View Post
Hi GFIs1,

Thanks very much for your thread.

I'm never quite sure whether I should read it in the morning before I trade as sometimes it "over influences" me .

Anyway I have a few questions about how you trade and how you have come up with some of the numbers ... and how come you ignore some. I'm not saying that I know better but just ... putting it out there.

1. Why the 30 Points SL. Is it related to the average daily noise ? Is it a percentage of the ADR ... did it come to you in a dream .. is it based on any particular type of bad trading day (like range bound days) etc ?

2. You take no account of "conventional" measures of trend, pivots, measures of excess or target ADR .... ever. I've noticed a few times that this would be useful. Do you ever consider adding them in ?

3. At times like this (all time high) do you foresee any more "special" rules ??

Give them a shot .. sorry if you have addressed this elsewhere in the past !

p

Hi @podski

Thanks for your questions - You are right - the GFIs1 approach is very different from others.
Answers:
1) The SL settings are the best calculated staying out of noise but giving enough "room" for some contra-moves
before taking the foreseen direction as well as to limit losses OVER time and under all circumstances. That value
had been the best over the last 24 months.
2) As the system has fixed rules there is no possibility to jump on special events intraday (except numbers, IFO,
last of the month etc. of course which are part of the rule set). So the system is NOT looking for any pivots, support
levels, targets and more - instead making TIME decisions which reflect the highest probability of volume and direction
on any given day. As seen during the thread - results are not always as previewed. Over the long run it is still positive.
The goal was to have a fixed start and end time to NOT read patterns/levels etc. on every day.
3) Even under a new alltime high I think that the market behaves the same - so no new rules have to be invented
right now - in fact I have not changed the rule set for already a long time now.

Hope this answers some of the burning questions - feel free to bring some more in

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Looking forward to tomorrow's trade:

1) The new alltime high on the Dax stepped in today
2) the normal pullback after many bullish days will be seen for sure
3) what a chance that tomorrow is Wednesday - and what the heck - a Wednesday is normally SHORT

So let the winds play it out - I am pretty sure to see some nice cash-in tomorrow.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
As the new alltime High this morning showed finally up - some upmove is highly probable.
Next target is around 8220...
Tomorrow Wednesday some cashing in is expected which means lower prices.
Higher level might go up to 86xx now.

Good trades
GFIs1

ahh... you ask - by when 82xx? .... TODAY

Target looks not bad...

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 8187

exit @ 8217 (SL)

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - some consolidation after the bull's moves

GFIs1

edit: rally not over - as it seems - but one should be careful about longs - as the scenario is at THE limits

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8326

exit @ 8356 (SL)

result minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - after a 65 point bullish move in the first 30 minutes - what comes?

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8326

exit @

result

risk - medium

outlook - after a 65 point bullish move in the first 30 minutes - what comes?

GFIs1

Hello GFI,
It seems we lost today as well, but it doesn't matter. From failures we learn. Only the big boys can take the risk of trading long at this level.

eyalor8

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 ratfink 
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GFIs1 View Post
outlook - after a 65 point bullish move in the first 30 minutes - what comes?

Yes,very strong open, could be a final blow off after this long run, we will see when frothiness dissipates if its a G&C or a G&T.

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 podski 
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@GFIs1

Kudos as usual for having the mojo to call it ..

Can you talk us through a little why the short bias ?

Stats tell us that continuations are more likely than reversals by about 4 or 5 to 1.

What is it about today that tells you that the call was short? This is not in line with your previous thoughts of maybe a run up to 36XX either. So ... there is uncertainty.

I love the "lifestyle" friendly trading style and the GFIs1 1 Trade Per Day approach has really reinforced for me the importance of getting that direction for the day right.

This morning we had
a. new high / all time high / higher high
b. strong volume
c. support below / pivots / moving averages / Daily open

None of this traditional stuff tells me to trade this one from the short side. I do indeed feel a bit giddy at these prices and I do appreciate that in this thread you've got to call it once !

Can you throw up a chart and walk us thru the short call ?

best

p

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 GFIs1 
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podski View Post
@GFIs1

Kudos as usual for having the mojo to call it ..

Can you talk us through a little why the short bias ?

...

I love the "lifestyle" friendly trading style and the GFIs1 1 Trade Per Day approach has really reinforced for me the importance of getting that direction for the day right.

This morning we had
a. new high / all time high / higher high
b. strong volume
c. support below / pivots / moving averages / Daily open

None of this traditional stuff tells me to trade this one from the short side. I do indeed feel a bit giddy at these prices and I do appreciate that in this thread you've got to call it once !

Can you throw up a chart and walk us thru the short call ?

best

p

There is no need for a chart to see the short - only the Friday rule - after a long Initial the short is normal right after.
The one thing here to consider is the chase for new alltime highs which may be soon the last...
Another thing to look further into is the SL setting of 30 points. This was already discussed earlier in this thread.
As long the price was around 76xx the 30 point stop was adequate - now with the new price level that one could be
to narrow.
I will look into this soon and might make some adjustments.
Thanks for all inputs - the SL settings are always here to protect capital if a trade is in the false direction.

Good trades!
GFIs1

PS: I am still convinced of that Friday short in that mentioned time - except the entry point was not good and of course the SL
was a bit to tight

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 podski 
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GFIs1 View Post
PS: I am still convinced of that Friday short in that mentioned time - except the entry point was not good and of course the SL
was a bit to tight

You might very well be right !!!

p

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 Eyalor8 
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podski View Post
@GFIs1

Kudos as usual for having the mojo to call it ..

Can you talk us through a little why the short bias ?

Stats tell us that continuations are more likely than reversals by about 4 or 5 to 1.

What is it about today that tells you that the call was short? This is not in line with your previous thoughts of maybe a run up to 36XX either. So ... there is uncertainty.

I love the "lifestyle" friendly trading style and the GFIs1 1 Trade Per Day approach has really reinforced for me the importance of getting that direction for the day right.

This morning we had
a. new high / all time high / higher high
b. strong volume
c. support below / pivots / moving averages / Daily open

None of this traditional stuff tells me to trade this one from the short side. I do indeed feel a bit giddy at these prices and I do appreciate that in this thread you've got to call it once !

Can you throw up a chart and walk us thru the short call ?

best

p

Hello Podski,
I'm only speaking for myself here, but for me the reasons to go short today was because:
1. Price is at the very ceiling of the uptrending channel beginning at August 2012.
2. Yesterday was a weak day, with low volume and low range showing the market is already weak and this was the second time such a day appeared this week.
3. Entry at 8326 was already high, well above the R2 pivot.

On retrospect my mistake was not waiting for enough confirmation and/or clearer signal. But there's always tomorrow...


Much Success
eyalor8

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 podski 
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Eyalor8 View Post
Hello Podski,
I'm only speaking for myself here, but for me the reasons to go short today was because:
1. Price is at the very ceiling of the uptrending channel beginning at August 2012.
2. Yesterday was a weak day, with low volume and low range showing the market is already weak and this was the second time such a day appeared this week.
3. Entry at 8326 was already high, well above the R2 pivot.

On retrospect my mistake was not waiting for enough confirmation and/or clearer signal. But there's always tomorrow...


Much Success
eyalor8


Many thanks @Eyalor8. Appreciated !


Just one little thing. Yesterday was a national holiday in Germany and much of Europe. I was a little surprised that that the contract traded at all to be honest.

For anyone that is interested. Download the calendar from the link below and import it into your calendar of choice!

Eurex - Trading Calendar

The calendar for yesterday was quite clear: Eurex is closed for trading and clearing. How come the FDAX traded at all ??


p

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 GFIs1 
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podski View Post

The calendar for yesterday was quite clear: Eurex is closed for trading and clearing. How come the FDAX traded at all ??

p

If you have a look into DerivateCheck you can see that yesterday was a trading day for futures.
Even it was a official European holiday the volume was more than 60K at the end of the day which is about 50% of a normal trading day.
Conclusions:
1) there must have been a lot of non german traders on the Dax yesterday ;-)
2) The incoming german trader this morning were prolonging the initial IB push of 30 minutes to 60 minutes which
might has to be considered for coming fridays after a thursday holiday

GFIs1

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 Eris 
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Hi GFIs1, Thank you for your posts on your DAX trades. I enjoy reading your journal.

Please allow me to share the approcah I employed today on shorting the DAX at 8340. I can't remember who desigend this technique but it is something useful to consider. It is called the 2B short entry.

Timeframe on 5-minute chart:
1. Wait for a new high,
2. then wait for a close below the low of the candle forming the new high,
3. trigger to enter short is when point2 happened.

Regards

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 GFIs1 
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Thanks @Eris for a nice setup for turning points intraday.

There are several time and chart intervals to get some patterns and setups:
Yours belongs to the short time(-frame) intraday trades - they need a lot of attention.
The second ones belong to 30 to 60 minutes intraday intervals. These patterns are considered in
this thread here. Taking the rules of the specific weekday the trade has no longer to be watched -
either the SL is taken out or the trade is closed on previewed time - hopefully with a positive gain.
Both of the above approaches are only for INTRADAY trades - so no higher margins needed and
the risk can be minimized.

For the long term trades with overnight and over weekend holding some other approach is needed
and can be taken as an assist for our intraday trades here - though I do NOT change my GFIs1 1 Dax
trading rule because of the bigger picture seen in the long term trades.
In my other thread for longer term settings
(that one is for the Dax - and there is a thread for the ES too) there are the settings shown for bigger moves.

Even if I am aware of very short time trades - my approach begins with 30 minute charts to have a trade
from 2 to 5 hours intraday as well as the long term approach holding a trade up to 2 weeks.

In this thread discussing any timeframe is welcome - so my question is if you are personally preferring
a 5min chart for entries - how long do YOU stay in the taken trade?

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8326

exit @ 8356 (SL)

result minus 30 points...

Instead of working around higher SL settings right now I made a glimpse on my rule set over all.
So I found a niche rule which was fine for all days except Friday.
Now I adjusted that rule for early entries (09:30) with a shift of 30 minutes later in case the IB
is higher than previous day's IB.
The theoretical today's result with the adjusted rule is:
entry 10:00 @ 8342
exit 14:00 @ 8290
result 52 points (instead of SL -30 points)

Conclusion:
General rule for the Friday short was ok
Entry time was wrong
SL setting with adjusted new rule works now fine

These are rare occurencies which have to arrive to see the main points!
Will include today's "failure" into future occasions.
Thanks @Eyalor8 - this time we have learned from a evitable occurence.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had two trades:

Both shorts went into SL of minus 30 points each
Weekly result minus 60 points

Result since week 2 now 410 points.

Rule correction on the second short (today's trade) is made for future Fridays
as described in earlier post here.
With that minimal 30 minute shift on today's trade the week would have ended positive.
This trading

Have a nice weekend
GFIs1

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 Eris 
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Thank you for reminding me about your timeframes.

The time that I stay in a trade varies as I need to wait for the exit target. Since I trade intraday only, I prefer a target of 50% of daily ATR which is about 33 points.




GFIs1 View Post
Thanks @Eris for a nice setup for turning points intraday.

There are several time and chart intervals to get some patterns and setups:
Yours belongs to the short time(-frame) intraday trades - they need a lot of attention.
The second ones belong to 30 to 60 minutes intraday intervals. These patterns are considered in
this thread here. Taking the rules of the specific weekday the trade has no longer to be watched -
either the SL is taken out or the trade is closed on previewed time - hopefully with a positive gain.
Both of the above approaches are only for INTRADAY trades - so no higher margins needed and
the risk can be minimized.

For the long term trades with overnight and over weekend holding some other approach is needed
and can be taken as an assist for our intraday trades here - though I do NOT change my GFIs1 1 Dax
trading rule because of the bigger picture seen in the long term trades.
In my other thread for longer term settings
(that one is for the Dax - and there is a thread for the ES too) there are the settings shown for bigger moves.

Even if I am aware of very short time trades - my approach begins with 30 minute charts to have a trade
from 2 to 5 hours intraday as well as the long term approach holding a trade up to 2 weeks.

In this thread discussing any timeframe is welcome - so my question is if you are personally preferring
a 5min chart for entries - how long do YOU stay in the taken trade?

GFIs1


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 ratfink 
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GFIs1 View Post
This trading

No kidding! Have a great one too! Cheers.

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 8244

exit @ 8243

result plus 1 point

risk - medium

outlook - starting the week negative: reversal here? Will discuss that with a daily chart in extra post

GFIs1

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 podski 
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Hi GFIs1,

Nice call on the direction this morning. It was also in line with a few of the things that I look at
- Friday's action
- SR
- Pivot Points
- Gaps
Something I have noticed that you do is you chop the day into a morning and afternoon session (loosely speaking). Lunchtime is of course a low volume time and moves are rarely telling during this time but there are often different impulses to the morning and the afternoon.

Question:
How do you make the split between say a morning trade (to 12:30 or 13:00) an early afternoon trade (to 14:30) and to an all day trade (16:00 .. or later).

best

p

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 GFIs1 
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podski View Post
Hi GFIs1,
...
Question:
How do you make the split between say a morning trade (to 12:30 or 13:00) an early afternoon trade (to 14:30) and to an all day trade (16:00 .. or later).

best

p

Hi @podski

Thanks for your input - the answer is relatively easy - the trades start between 09:30 to 11:00 normally.
Exits are depending on weekday (as always), gaps, US numbers in the afternoon (if there are or NOT)
and important: long trades when nothing important happens and a long weekend with a extra free day
is in sight...

Hope this helps

GFIs1

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 podski 
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Hi GFIs1 and all,

What does anyone feel about next Monday ?

It is a public holiday in Germany and a lot of other European countries ... so will anyone turn up or can we all have a day off ?

:-)

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 GFIs1 
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Hi GFIs1 and all,

What does anyone feel about next Monday ?

It is a public holiday in Germany and a lot of other European countries ... so will anyone turn up or can we all have a day off ?

:-)

p

Last year I did NOT trade on that Monday... (my statistics said it )
It is up to YOU

GFIs1

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CPRICE76
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GFIs1,

I am following your thread with interest.What other EU number do not enter a trade before besides IFO and ZEW?

Do you also not put a trade on prior to Europeans PMI,CPI,GDP etc..?

Also, Have you ever had to taken a much bigger loss than the 30 tick SL due to a market gap on some unexpected news etc..?

Thanks.

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 GFIs1 
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CPRICE76 View Post
GFIs1,

I am following your thread with interest.What other EU number do not enter a trade before besides IFO and ZEW?

Do you also not put a trade on prior to Europeans PMI,CPI,GDP etc..?

Also, Have you ever had to taken a much bigger loss than the 30 tick SL due to a market gap on some unexpected news etc..?

Thanks.

Hi @CPRICE76 - thanks for following

1) only IFO and ZEW have special entry rules. Trades are made on IFO and ZEW days
2) no
3) there is slippage possible but I have very rarely trades where SL does not hold

Good trades
GFIs1

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