Thanks!
Had a quick look back into last years march/beginning of april.
The amazing fact is that out of five weeks there were four
weeks with negative results.
Looks like march is shaky with these rules - as I have not
found any month with such dense negative results.
This might give a hint for future trading during march then.
GFIs1...
..how about:
negate all rules ONLY for that month here?
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Platform: "I trade, therefore, I AM!"; Theme Song: "Atomic Dog!"
Trading: EMD, 6J, ZB
Posts: 798 since Oct 2009
ouch!,
just one trader to another, I am sure hoping those aren't live points lost, because of the EUR/USD translation, such an amount is magnified almost 140%
Thanks for input - yes - 30 points SL means minus 750 Euro on the Dax future. This is
calculated (statistics) to be the best desaster stop in the intraday trading system here.
No panic - the gain this year is still positive (will post end of march result soon).
Looking back at last year's total result: please see posts no 537 and 538 in this thread.
GFIs1
Update 11:27h:
7812 reached (posted above) which means 1'800 Euro in plus right now.
The trade has not finished
outlook - slight further up... (attention US numbers 14:30)
EDIT: the buyers were not longer stepping in - on some news (?) the price dropped drastically...
so back on square one @7695 should be next...
GFIs1
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Well, first we have to crack the 400s...but I generally agree, especially the pullback is the same as the one mapped out in my head, maybe 50pt more, but the region seems likely...time will tell.
vvhg
PS: Nice profit you got there today!
Hic Rhodos, hic salta.
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As a GFIs1 rule fixes to not trade for two days after a Hi/Lo of > 250 points:
Today the range reached 256 points during cash hours.
So we have NO MORE TRADES left this week
This week we had two trades
one negative (-20 points)
one positive (+140 points)
weekly result +120 points
Total points since week one: 504
Happy rest of the week
GFIs1
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Quite some uncertainty! Still!!
Normally on Monday - money is coming in again after the weekend... Which means
normally some bullish behaviour. As the price started from within 30 min Kumo
some strange undecided development was obvious - which did not prevent from
making a trade though.
For tomorrow I am expecting some more move up (not much) which will NOT be
traded here. (Resistance on the daily is 7660 which is nearly out of normal movement).
Then from Wednesday expecting to see some major down movements - as we are
heading right now a resistance area which prevents from further bullish actions.
Good trades!
GFIs1
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Since some days back we had in the Hi/Lo 2 valid long signals and one short signal in between.
Expecting now a longer leg down after the price here (maybe tomorrow) will give the next valid
short signal. That down movement has two major supports @ 7396 and 7194 which should be
reached within the next two weeks.
GFIs1
Edit: Looking at the daily chart we have today a rare 4 short candles in a row. The last
occurences of 4 similar shorts were one in September and one in October last year. Looking for a long
candle tomorrow before the shorts could come in again.
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To underline the change of direction in previous posts - here are the IFO numbers which are lower than
last month:
"Der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex für Deutschland notiert für April bei 104,4. Im Vormonat hatte er noch bei 106,7 gestanden. Erwartet wurde er hingegen im Bereich 106,2. " **
Hi @Eyalor8
..was only speaking of last "UP"-leg... now change to downleg here again..
Over all in the bigger picture we are still on the down path. This had not been changed
by this fast conso on that level (just my opinion).
Good Morning GFI,
Why the last round? What about Monday the 30th?
And Yes, the current leg seems to me already fully developed with 52 bars (5000 vb) and 362562 volume traded, and 5.56% change, compared to 5.13% in a leg of the same magnitude (the beginning of March). Also Friday is traditionally a good day for closing up a leg and taking profit by the commercials... We shall soon see.
outlook - price in daily Kumo - still bullish support til' wednesday/thursday - don't force until the situation is more clear (by the end of the week)
edit: looking to reach for 7912 today before retracement can start ****
GFIs1
****edit 2: 7912 reached after market... ;-)
really intersting to look at tomorrow's trade
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Two interesting things were to see on that particular day:
1) Price was sitting under the 8K psychological barrier. In the morning very little volume was to see.
2) No distinctive direction
After US numbers - boom - Volume came in and price was moving fast to make a new high on this leg.
End of the day the daily volume was back to normal. Price range was 177 points (which leads us to
skip Monday's trade).
Review on this trade:
a) it was good to adjust the stop loss (tighter) under condition of 8K barrier, US numbers and uncertainty
b) trade hit the SL
c) we missed the great upspike after US numbers - which would be the same under normal conditions too..
d) preview of the day (quote above) was on the good side -
So the loss of 15 points here does not change our result heavily. The risk management was good in this case.
GFIs1
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Thanks @AnasParis for the Dax preview
Seeing the same - some consolidation under pressure down to 8012
and from there a new bullish move to kill the last High from 2007 as
price was coming near on Friday.
Good Trades
GFIs1
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As the new alltime High this morning showed finally up - some upmove is highly probable.
Next target is around 8220...
Tomorrow Wednesday some cashing in is expected which means lower prices.
Higher level might go up to 86xx now.
I'm never quite sure whether I should read it in the morning before I trade as sometimes it "over influences" me .
Anyway I have a few questions about how you trade and how you have come up with some of the numbers ... and how come you ignore some. I'm not saying that I know better but just ... putting it out there.
1. Why the 30 Points SL. Is it related to the average daily noise ? Is it a percentage of the ADR ... did it come to you in a dream .. is it based on any particular type of bad trading day (like range bound days) etc ?
2. You take no account of "conventional" measures of trend, pivots, measures of excess or target ADR .... ever. I've noticed a few times that this would be useful. Do you ever consider adding them in ?
3. At times like this (all time high) do you foresee any more "special" rules ??
Give them a shot .. sorry if you have addressed this elsewhere in the past !
Thanks for your questions - You are right - the GFIs1 approach is very different from others.
Answers:
1) The SL settings are the best calculated staying out of noise but giving enough "room" for some contra-moves
before taking the foreseen direction as well as to limit losses OVER time and under all circumstances. That value
had been the best over the last 24 months.
2) As the system has fixed rules there is no possibility to jump on special events intraday (except numbers, IFO,
last of the month etc. of course which are part of the rule set). So the system is NOT looking for any pivots, support
levels, targets and more - instead making TIME decisions which reflect the highest probability of volume and direction
on any given day. As seen during the thread - results are not always as previewed. Over the long run it is still positive.
The goal was to have a fixed start and end time to NOT read patterns/levels etc. on every day.
3) Even under a new alltime high I think that the market behaves the same - so no new rules have to be invented
right now - in fact I have not changed the rule set for already a long time now.
Hope this answers some of the burning questions - feel free to bring some more in
GFIs1
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1) The new alltime high on the Dax stepped in today
2) the normal pullback after many bullish days will be seen for sure
3) what a chance that tomorrow is Wednesday - and what the heck - a Wednesday is normally SHORT
So let the winds play it out - I am pretty sure to see some nice cash-in tomorrow.
Hello GFI,
It seems we lost today as well, but it doesn't matter. From failures we learn. Only the big boys can take the risk of trading long at this level.
eyalor8
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Can you talk us through a little why the short bias ?
Stats tell us that continuations are more likely than reversals by about 4 or 5 to 1.
What is it about today that tells you that the call was short? This is not in line with your previous thoughts of maybe a run up to 36XX either. So ... there is uncertainty.
I love the "lifestyle" friendly trading style and the GFIs1 1 Trade Per Day approach has really reinforced for me the importance of getting that direction for the day right.
This morning we had
a. new high / all time high / higher high
b. strong volume
c. support below / pivots / moving averages / Daily open
None of this traditional stuff tells me to trade this one from the short side. I do indeed feel a bit giddy at these prices and I do appreciate that in this thread you've got to call it once !
Can you throw up a chart and walk us thru the short call ?
best
p
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There is no need for a chart to see the short - only the Friday rule - after a long Initial the short is normal right after.
The one thing here to consider is the chase for new alltime highs which may be soon the last...
Another thing to look further into is the SL setting of 30 points. This was already discussed earlier in this thread.
As long the price was around 76xx the 30 point stop was adequate - now with the new price level that one could be
to narrow.
I will look into this soon and might make some adjustments.
Thanks for all inputs - the SL settings are always here to protect capital if a trade is in the false direction.
Good trades!
GFIs1
PS: I am still convinced of that Friday short in that mentioned time - except the entry point was not good and of course the SL
was a bit to tight
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Hello Podski,
I'm only speaking for myself here, but for me the reasons to go short today was because:
1. Price is at the very ceiling of the uptrending channel beginning at August 2012.
2. Yesterday was a weak day, with low volume and low range showing the market is already weak and this was the second time such a day appeared this week.
3. Entry at 8326 was already high, well above the R2 pivot.
On retrospect my mistake was not waiting for enough confirmation and/or clearer signal. But there's always tomorrow...
Much Success
eyalor8
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Just one little thing. Yesterday was a national holiday in Germany and much of Europe. I was a little surprised that that the contract traded at all to be honest.
For anyone that is interested. Download the calendar from the link below and import it into your calendar of choice!
If you have a look into DerivateCheck you can see that yesterday was a trading day for futures.
Even it was a official European holiday the volume was more than 60K at the end of the day which is about 50% of a normal trading day.
Conclusions:
1) there must have been a lot of non german traders on the Dax yesterday ;-)
2) The incoming german trader this morning were prolonging the initial IB push of 30 minutes to 60 minutes which
might has to be considered for coming fridays after a thursday holiday
GFIs1
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Hi GFIs1, Thank you for your posts on your DAX trades. I enjoy reading your journal.
Please allow me to share the approcah I employed today on shorting the DAX at 8340. I can't remember who desigend this technique but it is something useful to consider. It is called the 2B short entry.
Timeframe on 5-minute chart:
1. Wait for a new high,
2. then wait for a close below the low of the candle forming the new high,
3. trigger to enter short is when point2 happened.
Regards
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Thanks @Eris for a nice setup for turning points intraday.
There are several time and chart intervals to get some patterns and setups:
Yours belongs to the short time(-frame) intraday trades - they need a lot of attention.
The second ones belong to 30 to 60 minutes intraday intervals. These patterns are considered in
this thread here. Taking the rules of the specific weekday the trade has no longer to be watched -
either the SL is taken out or the trade is closed on previewed time - hopefully with a positive gain.
Both of the above approaches are only for INTRADAY trades - so no higher margins needed and
the risk can be minimized.
For the long term trades with overnight and over weekend holding some other approach is needed
and can be taken as an assist for our intraday trades here - though I do NOT change my GFIs1 1 Dax
trading rule because of the bigger picture seen in the long term trades.
In my other thread for longer term settings
Thanks all - here is the new thread separated and dedicated only to the ES:
GFIs1
(that one is for the Dax - and there is a thread for the ES too) there are the settings shown for bigger moves.
Even if I am aware of very short time trades - my approach begins with 30 minute charts to have a trade
from 2 to 5 hours intraday as well as the long term approach holding a trade up to 2 weeks.
In this thread discussing any timeframe is welcome - so my question is if you are personally preferring
a 5min chart for entries - how long do YOU stay in the taken trade?
Instead of working around higher SL settings right now I made a glimpse on my rule set over all.
So I found a niche rule which was fine for all days except Friday.
Now I adjusted that rule for early entries (09:30) with a shift of 30 minutes later in case the IB
is higher than previous day's IB.
The theoretical today's result with the adjusted rule is:
entry 10:00 @ 8342
exit 14:00 @ 8290
result 52 points (instead of SL -30 points)
Conclusion:
General rule for the Friday short was ok
Entry time was wrong
SL setting with adjusted new rule works now fine
These are rare occurencies which have to arrive to see the main points!
Will include today's "failure" into future occasions.
Thanks @Eyalor8 - this time we have learned from a evitable occurence.
GFIs1
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Both shorts went into SL of minus 30 points each
Weekly result minus 60 points
Result since week 2 now 410 points.
Rule correction on the second short (today's trade) is made for future Fridays
as described in earlier post here.
With that minimal 30 minute shift on today's trade the week would have ended positive.
This trading
Have a nice weekend
GFIs1
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The time that I stay in a trade varies as I need to wait for the exit target. Since I trade intraday only, I prefer a target of 50% of daily ATR which is about 33 points.
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Something I have noticed that you do is you chop the day into a morning and afternoon session (loosely speaking). Lunchtime is of course a low volume time and moves are rarely telling during this time but there are often different impulses to the morning and the afternoon.
Question:
How do you make the split between say a morning trade (to 12:30 or 13:00) an early afternoon trade (to 14:30) and to an all day trade (16:00 .. or later).
Thanks for your input - the answer is relatively easy - the trades start between 09:30 to 11:00 normally.
Exits are depending on weekday (as always), gaps, US numbers in the afternoon (if there are or NOT)
and important: long trades when nothing important happens and a long weekend with a extra free day
is in sight...
Hope this helps
GFIs1
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1) only IFO and ZEW have special entry rules. Trades are made on IFO and ZEW days
2) no
3) there is slippage possible but I have very rarely trades where SL does not hold
Good trades
GFIs1
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wake up to see then 
.
