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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
Started:February 18th, 2012 (07:46 AM) by GFIs1 Views / Replies:263,796 / 2,769
Last Reply:20 Hours Ago (06:08 AM) Attachments:173

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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

Old May 10th, 2013, 05:00 AM   #781 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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GFIs1 View Post
outlook - after a 65 point bullish move in the first 30 minutes - what comes?

Yes,very strong open, could be a final blow off after this long run, we will see when frothiness dissipates if its a G&C or a G&T.

Travel Well
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Old May 10th, 2013, 05:12 AM   #782 (permalink)
The Narrow Road
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@GFIs1

Kudos as usual for having the mojo to call it ..

Can you talk us through a little why the short bias ?

Stats tell us that continuations are more likely than reversals by about 4 or 5 to 1.

What is it about today that tells you that the call was short? This is not in line with your previous thoughts of maybe a run up to 36XX either. So ... there is uncertainty.

I love the "lifestyle" friendly trading style and the GFIs1 1 Trade Per Day approach has really reinforced for me the importance of getting that direction for the day right.

This morning we had
a. new high / all time high / higher high
b. strong volume
c. support below / pivots / moving averages / Daily open

None of this traditional stuff tells me to trade this one from the short side. I do indeed feel a bit giddy at these prices and I do appreciate that in this thread you've got to call it once !

Can you throw up a chart and walk us thru the short call ?

best

p

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Old May 10th, 2013, 05:52 AM   #783 (permalink)
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podski View Post
@GFIs1

Kudos as usual for having the mojo to call it ..

Can you talk us through a little why the short bias ?

...

I love the "lifestyle" friendly trading style and the GFIs1 1 Trade Per Day approach has really reinforced for me the importance of getting that direction for the day right.

This morning we had
a. new high / all time high / higher high
b. strong volume
c. support below / pivots / moving averages / Daily open

None of this traditional stuff tells me to trade this one from the short side. I do indeed feel a bit giddy at these prices and I do appreciate that in this thread you've got to call it once !

Can you throw up a chart and walk us thru the short call ?

best

p

There is no need for a chart to see the short - only the Friday rule - after a long Initial the short is normal right after.
The one thing here to consider is the chase for new alltime highs which may be soon the last...
Another thing to look further into is the SL setting of 30 points. This was already discussed earlier in this thread.
As long the price was around 76xx the 30 point stop was adequate - now with the new price level that one could be
to narrow.
I will look into this soon and might make some adjustments.
Thanks for all inputs - the SL settings are always here to protect capital if a trade is in the false direction.

Good trades!
GFIs1

PS: I am still convinced of that Friday short in that mentioned time - except the entry point was not good and of course the SL
was a bit to tight

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Old May 10th, 2013, 05:55 AM   #784 (permalink)
The Narrow Road
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GFIs1 View Post
PS: I am still convinced of that Friday short in that mentioned time - except the entry point was not good and of course the SL
was a bit to tight

You might very well be right !!!

p

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Old May 10th, 2013, 06:07 AM   #785 (permalink)
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podski View Post
@GFIs1

Kudos as usual for having the mojo to call it ..

Can you talk us through a little why the short bias ?

Stats tell us that continuations are more likely than reversals by about 4 or 5 to 1.

What is it about today that tells you that the call was short? This is not in line with your previous thoughts of maybe a run up to 36XX either. So ... there is uncertainty.

I love the "lifestyle" friendly trading style and the GFIs1 1 Trade Per Day approach has really reinforced for me the importance of getting that direction for the day right.

This morning we had
a. new high / all time high / higher high
b. strong volume
c. support below / pivots / moving averages / Daily open

None of this traditional stuff tells me to trade this one from the short side. I do indeed feel a bit giddy at these prices and I do appreciate that in this thread you've got to call it once !

Can you throw up a chart and walk us thru the short call ?

best

p

Hello Podski,
I'm only speaking for myself here, but for me the reasons to go short today was because:
1. Price is at the very ceiling of the uptrending channel beginning at August 2012.
2. Yesterday was a weak day, with low volume and low range showing the market is already weak and this was the second time such a day appeared this week.
3. Entry at 8326 was already high, well above the R2 pivot.

On retrospect my mistake was not waiting for enough confirmation and/or clearer signal. But there's always tomorrow...


Much Success
eyalor8

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Old May 10th, 2013, 06:15 AM   #786 (permalink)
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Eyalor8 View Post
Hello Podski,
I'm only speaking for myself here, but for me the reasons to go short today was because:
1. Price is at the very ceiling of the uptrending channel beginning at August 2012.
2. Yesterday was a weak day, with low volume and low range showing the market is already weak and this was the second time such a day appeared this week.
3. Entry at 8326 was already high, well above the R2 pivot.

On retrospect my mistake was not waiting for enough confirmation and/or clearer signal. But there's always tomorrow...


Much Success
eyalor8


Many thanks @Eyalor8. Appreciated !


Just one little thing. Yesterday was a national holiday in Germany and much of Europe. I was a little surprised that that the contract traded at all to be honest.

For anyone that is interested. Download the calendar from the link below and import it into your calendar of choice!

Eurex - Trading Calendar

The calendar for yesterday was quite clear: Eurex is closed for trading and clearing. How come the FDAX traded at all ??


p

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Old May 10th, 2013, 06:25 AM   #787 (permalink)
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podski View Post

The calendar for yesterday was quite clear: Eurex is closed for trading and clearing. How come the FDAX traded at all ??

p

If you have a look into DerivateCheck you can see that yesterday was a trading day for futures.
Even it was a official European holiday the volume was more than 60K at the end of the day which is about 50% of a normal trading day.
Conclusions:
1) there must have been a lot of non german traders on the Dax yesterday ;-)
2) The incoming german trader this morning were prolonging the initial IB push of 30 minutes to 60 minutes which
might has to be considered for coming fridays after a thursday holiday

GFIs1

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Old May 10th, 2013, 07:09 AM   #788 (permalink)
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How to short a new high

Hi GFIs1, Thank you for your posts on your DAX trades. I enjoy reading your journal.

Please allow me to share the approcah I employed today on shorting the DAX at 8340. I can't remember who desigend this technique but it is something useful to consider. It is called the 2B short entry.

Timeframe on 5-minute chart:
1. Wait for a new high,
2. then wait for a close below the low of the candle forming the new high,
3. trigger to enter short is when point2 happened.

Regards

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Old May 10th, 2013, 08:00 AM   #789 (permalink)
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Different time intervals

Thanks @Eris for a nice setup for turning points intraday.

There are several time and chart intervals to get some patterns and setups:
Yours belongs to the short time(-frame) intraday trades - they need a lot of attention.
The second ones belong to 30 to 60 minutes intraday intervals. These patterns are considered in
this thread here. Taking the rules of the specific weekday the trade has no longer to be watched -
either the SL is taken out or the trade is closed on previewed time - hopefully with a positive gain.
Both of the above approaches are only for INTRADAY trades - so no higher margins needed and
the risk can be minimized.

For the long term trades with overnight and over weekend holding some other approach is needed
and can be taken as an assist for our intraday trades here - though I do NOT change my GFIs1 1 Dax
trading rule because of the bigger picture seen in the long term trades.
In my other thread for longer term settings https://futures.io/trading-journals/25262-gfis1-hilo-dax-signal-14.html#post326493
(that one is for the Dax - and there is a thread for the ES too) there are the settings shown for bigger moves.

Even if I am aware of very short time trades - my approach begins with 30 minute charts to have a trade
from 2 to 5 hours intraday as well as the long term approach holding a trade up to 2 weeks.

In this thread discussing any timeframe is welcome - so my question is if you are personally preferring
a 5min chart for entries - how long do YOU stay in the taken trade?

GFIs1

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Old May 10th, 2013, 09:13 AM   #790 (permalink)
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Quick Update



GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8326

exit @ 8356 (SL)

result minus 30 points...

Instead of working around higher SL settings right now I made a glimpse on my rule set over all.
So I found a niche rule which was fine for all days except Friday.
Now I adjusted that rule for early entries (09:30) with a shift of 30 minutes later in case the IB
is higher than previous day's IB.
The theoretical today's result with the adjusted rule is:
entry 10:00 @ 8342
exit 14:00 @ 8290
result 52 points (instead of SL -30 points)

Conclusion:
General rule for the Friday short was ok
Entry time was wrong
SL setting with adjusted new rule works now fine

These are rare occurencies which have to arrive to see the main points!
Will include today's "failure" into future occasions.
Thanks @Eyalor8 - this time we have learned from a evitable occurence.

GFIs1

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