What are the rules for 30 point and 40 point stop losses? When do you opt for 40 point stop loss? The way I understand it 40 points are used on days with higher expected volatility. How do you define such days?
It would be easier to follow if you could post the size of the stop loss adjacent to your daily trade plan post.
The normal SL is 30 points in most of the trades.
The 40 points is for volatile days.
I am posting this in my "risk" definition in the daily posting:
"medium" means SL 30 points
"high" means SL 40 points
Hope this helps
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
outlook: slight upmove while waiting on news of the Euro in Germany. After the news quicker upmove probable. Decision of the german high court is tomorrow 10:00
outlook - bullish move before high court decision has already been reached near its end yesterday and today
expecting today a consolidation in the above mentioned hours
GFIs1
expecting discussed scenario despite the small win compared to the long side before
This short trade is ONLY for today - expecting some bullish scene tomorrow again.
Then a retracement on friday seems high probable after the daily chart.
Good luck too!
..exactly - roll over day on friday: Triple Witch Day..
Will take the december contract from tomorrow. Never trade on roll over day on friday
if you are not already longer in a trade.
There are fellows that change the future already a week ahead of witching day.
Right - SL was 30 points!
My broker showed a max @ 7337 - and my SL was not filled :-)
Otherwise it would have been a minus 30 points!
Anyway - on such low volume days a "not-to-wide-stop"
is much better than to get lost in a market-maker move
that shakes everything out.
This is a hint to NOT trade during low-vol days...
I have been following the system (after finishing statistical analysis with very positive results) with accuracy of +-100 millisecond on large majority of the fills. I traded it with real money so fills are perfectly realistic. I have paid lot of attention to the accuracy of the fills to follow the results of GFIs1's postings.
Tick size of the DAX future contract is 0.5 while GFIs1 only posts only even numbers. There is a reason to this and it is to make result look better than they actually would be. This has a minor but noticeable effect on outcome. On average I get 0.9 points worse fills than GFIs1 on each day (22.5 EUR/contract). I have never got a better fill than GFIs1, not even a single time (out of 22 occurences, entries and exits).
I've seen some claims of stop magically not getting filled before in this journal (when price slightly crosses stoploss amount). I decided to believe in this magic at first. Today however, high price on December 2012 DAX future was 7338.0 according to CQG data while GFIs1 claims he didn't get stopped out with his stoploss 2 ticks below. This is _very_ unlikely scenario and most likely these results are widely manipulated to show much better than actual executions on real life. Today I got stopped out with slippage for 775 EUR while GFIs1 only managed to lose minor amount and not getting stopped. My fills for today was 7306.5 (vs 7307) and 7337.5 for stoploss (1 point slippage).
The aggregate effect of manipulating fill prices and especially not reporting stoplosses honestly is that these results are bogus and they should not be considered as any kind of track record. Instead this is a proof of this person tendency to create scams. People, please don't be fooled!
PS. I can back up my claims with brokerage statements.
To discuss this occurence here in depth - we had low volume in the market
due to Germany's "Tag der Deutschen Einheit" which is a country-wide holiday.
In the trading time we had two highs @ 11:29 with 597 contracts and @ 11:46 with
418 contracts. The high was in both cases very thin and the minute chart shows this
with candles with long wicks. This means not ALL stoploss or bids were filled at highest
price.
Here the one-minute chart:
Not every broker is filling the same way - so the SL setting may be slightly different to avoid
problems - regarding the experience with one's broker.
If I have understood correctly the way how centralized exchange like EUREX works then everyone should have equal fills as long as the orders are registered in the order book of the exchange (which I'm sure your stop loss order has been because it had been there pending for long time). Stop loss orders is same as market order as long as there is ONE OR MORE trades occurring in the price of the stoploss level or beyond. So every single stop loss should be filled in this circumstance unless somehow your order was not in the central orderbook. I have never got "positive slippage" on stoploss order like you seemed to get here. Not even once during my life. In theory it shouldn't even be possible especially if the price wasn't just touched but instead it was crossed. It seems highly unlikely to me. Correct me if I'm wrong (with some evidence).
That being said I think these results are not realistic and should not be considered. I find it pointless to argue about this, let this be a warning for everyone getting too excited about this.
Even if I can not see any "crossing" of price in my chart above 7337 during the trade
I have to consider that:
1) when in february the thread was started - Dax was @ 67xx
2) today we are around @ 73xx
So the system's SL might be now to dense comparing a percentage previewed to avoid higher losses.
Conclusion to this Dax range SL-settings for the future:
medium risk days: 33 points
high risk days 44 points
This should us keep in silent water.
GFIs1
IMPORTANT NOTE: this thread (thanks to BigMike's great forum) is not selling any system - nor is it
a "trading room" for free. This thread and the GFIs1 system is to test a previewed every day trade
scenario to compare its results with the market.
As far as I can see adjacent threads today - there is NO other input to preview a trade with exact
entry time, exit time and direction. If there are others - please let me know.
In the daily chart we see that the price of the Dax has danced around the black
spiral since two weeks. This consolidation phase will end around end of next
week as the Kumo "sideways" form ends there.
Then a new bullish phase should bring the price over the last high @ 7484.
This is shown with the red arrow.
Price should push higher (7650?) and reach a new peak around the last day of
October. From there a new consolidation phase may play during November.
This is marked with the green vertical line as top of the Kumo (Cloud).
Looking forward to see a year end rally.
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
In answering some incoming questions to Ichimoku cloud on posted Dax chart here:
The cloud shows some support / resistance zone which moves with the price development.
How we can see that price will not fall significantly in the next eight weeks:
1) Price is normally attracted by a horizontal line of the opposite side of the Kumo. (Bullish as Bearish Kumo)
If there is no opposite horizontal line - a price crossing the Kumo at that point is not probable.
2) A shrinking Kumo signifies some weakening of the support / resistance. The opposite is true
when the Kumo is thickening - this makes it nearly impossible of price crossing that cloud.
A view on the posted chart shows that a) there is no horizontal opposite cloud line and
b) the Kumo is thickening until the mentioned "peak" will happen. From there the support will fade - and the "consolidation" happens again.
That easy. Hope this helps!
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Early stop loss... (not previewed)
Price started within the 60 minutes..
That was within the 60' cloud!
Which means always - be aware...
so the price move down was bit(ssss) more than previewed
Even the trade in its span has not finished yet
there is a new alert on such entering there!!
for a friday's trade ;-)))
outlook - not much vola expected today - tomorrow bullish again
GFIs1
comment: in this very bullish area (GFIs1's expectation 76xx soon) it is not easy
to get the pullbacks with normal vola... - so glad to exit without troubles here
on this retracement move. :-)
Seeing a friday 9 to 9:30 candle red..
From there some upmove to new high might take place.
So the last high of 7484 will be taken out.. - 7512 highly probable.
Our big picture of the daily Dax chart 2 weeks ago was from October 5th.
Today we are 2 weeks in the development and I am taking the chart from there
and compare it to the real result after these two weeks.
Result is impressing as the turning point was exactly hit - the rising price as
previewed - and I expect to see the peak point in that development still for
end of october. (Price might hit 76xx then)
Take a look @ the two charts here:
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
After yesterday's drop in the Dax - there will be no trade today as the volatility
was too high for a normal rule today. This helps to avoid some negative points here.
Anyway - the outlook is: bullish move again - first retracement and then higher highs
expected til' the end of october.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
outlook - after a nice upmove in the opening some faster upmovements expected today and tomorrow
as outlined in some previous posts - on the way to a new high.
Very nice work. I'm also a Dax trader full-time for more than a year now. And I trade only the Dax. Also with IB. Very nice work. How long are you trading the Dax?
Thanks for input - I am trading the Dax more than 3 years - this makes it easier to follow the sometimes
"weird" movements...
In answering your question: I have some trading rules connected with every weekday - it does not matter
where the levels are - as I am only trading with these rules. The result shows at least some consistency ;-)
Good trades!
For the coming friday - I have no idea to where the journey goes...
The rule set looks for the first 30 minutes after the opening - so the entry time, exit time and SL
are fixed at 9:30 of any trading day.
Rules depend on the day itself (weekday), on the previous day - on eventual gaps, and on parts
of the Ichimoku chart plus on important upcoming announcements like ECB, FED etc.
Therefore I don't have one rule for every day but a set of rules depending on chart and events
as you can easily see when you look at past entry/exit times in this thread.
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Thanks. I agree, but this is aiming for small profit and rather risky since this first wave is rather impulsive. The first wave is about to end soon I hope, and the peak of the 2nd wave could offer a less risky short. I believe the peak would come around 13:00 your time.
GFI, I honestly deeply appreciate your work. You need a lot of courage and discipline to put yourself on the line like that for all the world to see, almost each and every trading day for so long. I read almost every post in this thread and I can only say one thing: "chapeau". What I really like in this thread is your professional and positive attitude at all times. Keep the heads on approach. If you still need my vote - you have it.
Eyal
The following 2 users say Thank You to Eyalor8 for this post:
To keep it simple - there is ONE trading rule to not forget:
Follow your trading plan !!!
This is by far the best money managment ;-)
To get some excellent views about that rule - please have a look at the last Webinar of Jeff Quinto here on futures.io (formerly BMT).
He has put a remarkable slide to that theme which brings you to the "circle of success".
Took the time and made an effort to put the spot on my system with different rules
for every weekday in the Dax.
As you know there are different rules for every weekday - now looking back this year
it would be nice to know which weekday gave the best results so far - and which
day might be skipped.
Here are the results:
Weekday's total twittered points from January 2nd to now
Monday 239 points
Tuesday 40 points
Wednesday 352 points
Thursday 105 points
Friday 281 points
TOTAL 1027 points
Conclusion
Looking back to the efforts - I could certainly skip Tuesday's trades in the future - as for
so many trades I took in these 46 weeks to "earn" less than 1 point per week - I need to say:
Forget about!
Instead of finding a more adequate rule set for Tuesday: "ONE DAY MORE OFF!" - hehe...
That should be a good economic approach.
Looking to put most weight (in cars) on Wednesday and Friday should bring top results.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Looking back into the last bigger picture mid october (post #454) new highs were not made.
Price was falling back into the red Kumo. Support did not hold and price went into the middle
of the Kumo. As the cloud weakend from Nov. 13th price support was breaking away and as
of yesterday the price crossed Kumo border underneath.
So the scenario for a year end rally has to be written new:
Expecting price going further down to the 6850 level (low around 6833).
From start December some retracement up could be seen to an upper resistance level of 7180
area. From there (Beginning Jan. 2013) some further consolidation back south highly probable.
At least some less volatile movements ahead...
Hello GFI,
Good to have you back. For some reason didn't receive your posts for a few days. Thought you quit. I'm sitting in front of the DAX right now not knowing exactly what to do. Deliberating with myself whether to go short at 13:00 which is often a turning point, and it is a little overbought already. Looking at recent weeks I thought Monday would be the less profitable.
Also, thanks for the slide.
Eyal
The following user says Thank You to Eyalor8 for this post:
Well read! The rule set will be altered to New Year. Goal of this years log is to get a complete track record for one
year. From there some changes are foreseen.
With all year's data some proper calculations can be made. I think this is worth the effort.
Good trades!
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
