Asia mixed this morning. btc$ still battle @ 50k.
DAX30 first time check today of the composition of the 30 companies:
2 might get thrown out: Heidelberg Cement and Beiersdorf.
Those might be replaced by hello fresh and Siemens.
Important change in September: DAX30 will change into DAX40 - means
40 companies will be part of the DAX40 - which might flatten the vola a bit.
Interestingly today's announcement that the German BAFIN investigates
EY (former Ernst & Young) for not having seen false numbers of wirecard
many years. That company with its extreme bankruptcy last year is the
first DAX30 company that had quit this index caused by bankruptcy since
the beginning of the DAX.
DAX started higher this morning - with a probable up gap.
Made a new ATH @ 14182 after 10 minutes cash trading.
So the setup is ok.
DAX short 9:30 to 14:30*
entry @ 14165
exit @ 14012
result + 153 points
GFIs1
* the down move came very late - prolonged time to 16:30
The battle @ 14k is not over yet!
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Silently the page views of this simple Journal has topped 600k!
Many thanks to the followers here!
Without you the effort of my typing would have given no results
In fact the new year has shown very interesting edges for lots of traders like us.
Focusing on the DAX within this journal plus the Walzer one could earn quite steadily.
For those who are not familiar with the Walzer which is shown with rules in a separate thread
please refer to this link:
Asia red this morning.
DAX started on the low of yesterday. Battle @ 14k...
btc$ lower @ 47k.
No important numbers, just US 14:30.
Now the companies with dark red numbers 2020 are showing their results: Lufthansa -6,7 Mia EUR!
Tendency today down over all: speech of Jerome H. Powell yesterday to the fear of rising interests in bonds - will not take any actions against this trend now.
Here a 1h chart until now:
edit 9:20 - battle @ 14k lost...
DAX short 9:30 to 14:30
entry @ 13932
exit @ 13988
result -56 points
Asia mostly red.
Dax started in the middle of Friday range. Lower than 30m Kumo - in the middle of nowhere.
Price within a down channel with no distinct sign of a change to long:
As mentioned above with Biden's US money flooding - the DAX jumped up this afternoon when US opened.
Means a new ATH @ ~14400.
This is the snake oil that smears the aching machine
Good trades!
GFIs1
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Asia all green except China. btc$ above 54k this morning.
DAX started pre cash on the level of cash close yesterday.
HiLo range yesterday 429 points!
BIP EUR 11:00 (not important for the DAX)
DAX short 11:00 to 13:30 new 15:00
entry @ 14432
exit @ 14446
result - 14 points
GFIs1
9:40 - a goal is 14250 for today
10:55 - new ATH near 14450 in reach
as the down came 1.5h later I let the trade play it out a bit longer
Not a big deal though!
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Asia green (except HongKong).
US the 1.9 trillion bill is signed by the President.
DAX started on IB with a range cut to yesterday.
Price is in 30m KUMO.
A very unusual week with battles at new all time highs + a lot of political influence.
There is a high probability to see more "usual trades" again in the next week.
GFIs1
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Catastrophic elections in Germany for the CDU (Conservative) in the 2 counties Baden-Württemberg and in Rheinland-Pfalz. Performing Winners are the Green Party in BW and the SPD in RP. The CDU is on a historic low. This year the country parliament election will be held in September. Obviously the people are not happy about the Slalom of the politics in the whole country.
Asia most green. btc$ on new ATH this weekend: killed the 60k.
Biden speech this evening (18:00 CET).
The US billion stimulus will have an impact also on European exports. Means a positive development on prices for the next months. Of course in the DAX this is mostly priced in already.
DAX started pre cash 7:30 with a thin gap up to Friday. Price is above 30m Kumo.
Looking forward to cash start and on IB. Gap seems to be closed now before cash start.
9:00 start within Friday range - price again lower than 30m Kumo.
DAX short 9:30 to 14:00
entry @ 14534
exit @ 14505
result + 29 points
GFIs1
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The 30m chart of the DAX shows a corrupted wading thru the Kumo: instead of going up thru long Kumo it had reversed last day. This is often a signal for further short. The goals here are 14200 and/or a new battle at 14k again.
Watching this morning the development - before deciding to take a trade.
Asia all thin red this morning. btc$ lower again.
News this evening (no influence of DAX today): US FED and FOMC protocol 19:00 CET.
No change of interest ahead though.
DAX short 10:30 to 1430
entry @ 14548
exit @ 14578 (SL)
result -30 points
GFIs1
Just sideways today.
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DAX close (cash) gave a new ATH @ 14600 in positive awaiting no interest change in the USA. Pre cash opening jumped up more than 100 points to 14712 after the FED decision which decided as expected. Result - Dow Jones new ATH > 33k. btc$ @ 58k.
The DAX will test 15k in the next days. ECB Lagarde will talk about the European marktes 9:00 and 12:00 CET.
Asia strong green: more than 1%.
No decision yet about a trade as we are in nowhere land right now.
IB already in first minutes above 14700.
Depending on the colour of IB a trade will be taken.
GFIs1
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New week. Asia mixed. btc$ @ 57k.
Today new decision in Germany to prolong the lockdown awaited (afternoon)
US FED Powell speech 14:00 CET.
Turkish LIRA in free fall after the finance chief had been fired yesterday.
DAX starts cash 9:00 within the lower range of Friday - but gets out south in the first minutes...
Looks like we see red during the day.
DAX short 9:30 to 14:00
entry @ 14609
exit @
result
GFIs1
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Asia mixed.
EU - Lagarde speech 10:30. US GDP annualised 13:30 - no change awaited.
Germany - political problems of yesterday's new Corona restrictions over Easter and then taking back the decisions cause insecurity at the stock markets. There seems no plan in Germany on how to stabilize the economy during the Corona crisis. That seems the basis of the sideways moves during the last weeks.
GFIs1
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DAX long 9:30 to 13:30
entry @ 14583
exit @ 14553 (SL) **
result -30 points
GFIs1
** the dark red 1h candle of 12:00 was after a speech of Jerome Powell who said if the US economy gets soon on the feet again, the interest rates must be examined again - meaning a rising interest out of the lows could be closer than the markets expected.
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This week was not good - to much negative influence of German politics.
Looking to take a trade tomorrow.
Will trade next week eventually the last day of March on Wednesday. Otherwise in that Easter week we will find very low volumes - thus erratic moves are possible.
Good trades
GFIs1
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DAX killed yesterday in the afternoon the 15k line... Lower then and this morning: 14970 (7:30).
Asia red. btc$ nearing 60k again.
Last day of the first quarter 2021.
US Biden speech 14:00 CET.
No numbers today.
Easter week - last important trading day before holidays - some window dressing ahead.
After a long pause of the DAX a new trading is ahead. (Asia and US were trading yesterday).
Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. The Shanghai Composite gained 1.14%, while the Nikkei 225 led the Hang Seng lower. They fell 2.07% and 0.27% respectively.
btc$ battle still around 60k.
No important numbers or announced speeches today.
DAX started 8h with a strong up gap @ 15269. A new ATH!
Looks like the development caused by the massive money printing and some astonishing good quarter numbers of companies around the world (despite Covid) will lead the markets to higher levels. Still!
According to the development of IB (9:00 to 9:30) a trade will be taken by the rules.
Good trades!
GFIs1
edit 8:40 - killed already 15300 pre cash start
edit 9:20 - new ATH, IB red with a hi/lo until now of -106 points - still strong above high of last trading day
edit 11:00 - outlook on the development with a proper trend channel here:
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Nice job - I shorted that retrace up 3 times anticipating a move lower (obviously different method than yours), last one getting stopped out at the very top 15327!!!
I noticed from where you got in to that retrace high was 51 points, you must be using quite a large stop loss on occasion?
Cheers
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Thanks @Market Sniper
You are right - there was a high probability that after the very long weekend (Easter) the start of the cash might be volatile. So every stop lower than 50 points would be in danger.
Watching my rules (there is one for a trade before a long weekend and the first trade after) I have a good experience with those "special" occasions.
As indicted the trade direction was good - after hours even better. So I am happy with the start into this new week.
Good trades
GFIs1
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DAX made lower lows yesterday after hours.
This morning (7:30) the price reached 30m Kumo on the top.
Still a gap to yesterday and to last Thursday (opposite one).
Given a Wednesday trade the rule says short - so the gap to Thursday might closing today. Probability much higher than closing the gap above.
Asia mixed - not much movements to see.
btc$ @ 57k - still in battle @ 60k.
No important numbers or announcements - except FOMC protocol tonight @ 20:00
GFIs1
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There are many different versions of a "gap" in theory and used by traders
My version is simple:
• only cash prices count
• low or high intraday are the basis, not the last candle
• the last candle of cash hours is rarely relevant for a gap
• a never traded price (range gap) will mostly reached and is being closed - sometimes weeks later
• gaps are important in my rule set - as this event dictates different entry/exit times on the next trade.
GFIs1
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DAX short 10:30 to 14:30
entry @ 15222
exit @ 15179
result + 43 points
GFIs1
PS: the down move was slower than expected - but some points more are at hand. My time rule still was good and I don't look back if the lowest point hasn't reached.
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Asia red this morning. US ended mixed on weekend.
btc$ up to get near the ATH of March. Price above 609xx.
DAX started this morning in mid of Friday range. Price sitting above 30m and 1h Kumo right on top.
DAX cash jumped up - above range of last Friday. Just to fall fast right after...
DAX short 9:30 to 14:30
entry @ 15223
exit @ 15245
result -22 points
Asia mixed this morning - more green.
btc$ up and up: >64,3k
Many speeches today: BOJ (Japan) 8:00, ECB 9:00, 13:45 div. and 16:00 Lagarde, US Powell 18:00, FOMC 20:30.
Interesting day...
DAX started with up gap 7:30. Killed 15300 before 08:00...
Good trades!
GFIs1
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Asia mixed - very thin moves - means sideways...
btc$ scratched yesterday @ 65k
Many US numbers today 14:30! Looks like we will see better numbers than expected...
DAX still in the sideways window.
Thus no trade today.
GFIs1
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Asia green. Indexes on a high level. Some breathing after the rally seems obvious for the start in a new week.
btc$ made some strong profit taking on the high levels over the weekend.
DAX might make a consolidation phase today.
GFIs1
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Today IFO numbers 10:00. Rising IFO awaited - but might already being priced in!
As mentioned - IFO numbers slightly better than last month but outlook weaker.
Means eventually a red candle on this 30m... (10:16)
10:30 - red!
DAX short 10:30 to 14:30
entry @ 15296
exit @ 15290
result + 6 points
GFIs1
PS: not a normal pattern - but taking the points anyway
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Asia all green.
btc$ sideways.
Biden speech with fresh money for US people and infrastructure.
Different numbers are coming today - not top priority.
DAX IB red!
Numbers of Lufthansa and others not good (1st quarter).
Second to last of month today!
DAX short 10:30 to 17:30
entry @ 15261
exit @ 15089
result + 172 points
GFIs1
edit 16:25 - taking profit @ 15081 (161% of Fibo) or letting it run like announced
edit 17:10 - price came down to 15083 (imprecision on Fibo) - caught on retrace @ 15089
PS: Tomorrow Friday and last of month again...
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Asia turned all red this morning (following the DAX yesterday).
btc$ @55k without a direction.
Numbers: EUR BIP (Yearl) 11:00
1st of May on Saturday - so no holiday influence this time for the DAX.
Morning start slightly higher than yesterday's low.
DAX long 9:30 to 16:30
entry @ 15211
exit @ 15171 (SL)
result -40 points
GFIs1
13:00 - influence of the BIP announcement @ 11:00
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Asia mixed - Japan closed (holiday)
DAX with indecision.
DAX short 9:30 to 16:00
entry @ 15212
exit @ 14966 (TP) before end of trade result + 246 points*
GFIs1
edit 14:30 - roller coaster today! But very nice vola - that makes a trade getting bold:
Having a take profit (TP) in sight: 14966 which is the 161.8% Fibo of the range.
*edit 15:20 - took the TP.
HAPPY TUESDAY
PS: left some money on the table: DAX 16:00 14924 (still on the downmove) theor. +288 points
still happy with the result on a "silent day"!
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New pic of the world right now: all important indexes red!
Nikkei made the flush down yesterday too!
btc$ stabilized on level 55k.
Numbers today: 14:15 US jobs - a jump up expected
DAX on the retrace path (up) from a low during the night @ 14828 (!)
Price 8:00 - 14964.5 (2 points off my TP from yesterday), means
back to the 161.8% in the FIB
GFIs1
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Out of experience we can see that when on a Tuesday a high vola is to see then the next is on the Thursday.
Looking forward to see the counterpart to yesterday.
Traders like that much more than sideways moves.
Sunny trading days!
GFIs1
edit 19:15 - part of the rebounce came in the afternoon and after cash hours...
Some points up this week are still possible.
... 
