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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

  #431 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bangkok, Thailand
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Matlab, Self-Made Platform
Favorite Futures: GC, CL, Forex
 
Posts: 139 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 284 given, 159 received

These results are Bogus!

I have been following the system (after finishing statistical analysis with very positive results) with accuracy of +-100 millisecond on large majority of the fills. I traded it with real money so fills are perfectly realistic. I have paid lot of attention to the accuracy of the fills to follow the results of GFIs1's postings.

Tick size of the DAX future contract is 0.5 while GFIs1 only posts only even numbers. There is a reason to this and it is to make result look better than they actually would be. This has a minor but noticeable effect on outcome. On average I get 0.9 points worse fills than GFIs1 on each day (22.5 EUR/contract). I have never got a better fill than GFIs1, not even a single time (out of 22 occurences, entries and exits).

I've seen some claims of stop magically not getting filled before in this journal (when price slightly crosses stoploss amount). I decided to believe in this magic at first. Today however, high price on December 2012 DAX future was 7338.0 according to CQG data while GFIs1 claims he didn't get stopped out with his stoploss 2 ticks below. This is _very_ unlikely scenario and most likely these results are widely manipulated to show much better than actual executions on real life. Today I got stopped out with slippage for 775 EUR while GFIs1 only managed to lose minor amount and not getting stopped. My fills for today was 7306.5 (vs 7307) and 7337.5 for stoploss (1 point slippage).

The aggregate effect of manipulating fill prices and especially not reporting stoplosses honestly is that these results are bogus and they should not be considered as any kind of track record. Instead this is a proof of this person tendency to create scams. People, please don't be fooled!

PS. I can back up my claims with brokerage statements.

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  #432 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 3,874 since Feb 2012
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Forum Reputation: Legendary

Today's situation

To discuss this occurence here in depth - we had low volume in the market
due to Germany's "Tag der Deutschen Einheit" which is a country-wide holiday.
In the trading time we had two highs @ 11:29 with 597 contracts and @ 11:46 with
418 contracts. The high was in both cases very thin and the minute chart shows this
with candles with long wicks. This means not ALL stoploss or bids were filled at highest
price.
Here the one-minute chart:

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Not every broker is filling the same way - so the SL setting may be slightly different to avoid
problems - regarding the experience with one's broker.

Hope this helps
GFIs1

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  #433 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bangkok, Thailand
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Matlab, Self-Made Platform
Favorite Futures: GC, CL, Forex
 
Posts: 139 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 284 given, 159 received



GFIs1 View Post
To discuss this occurence here in depth - we had low volume in the market
due to Germany's "Tag der Deutschen Einheit" which is a country-wide holiday.
In the trading time we had two highs @ 11:29 with 597 contracts and @ 11:46 with
418 contracts. The high was in both cases very thin and the minute chart shows this
with candles with long wicks. This means not ALL stoploss or bids were filled at highest
price.
Here the one-minute chart:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Not every broker is filling the same way - so the SL setting may be slightly different to avoid
problems - regarding the experience with one's broker.

Hope this helps
GFIs1

If I have understood correctly the way how centralized exchange like EUREX works then everyone should have equal fills as long as the orders are registered in the order book of the exchange (which I'm sure your stop loss order has been because it had been there pending for long time). Stop loss orders is same as market order as long as there is ONE OR MORE trades occurring in the price of the stoploss level or beyond. So every single stop loss should be filled in this circumstance unless somehow your order was not in the central orderbook. I have never got "positive slippage" on stoploss order like you seemed to get here. Not even once during my life. In theory it shouldn't even be possible especially if the price wasn't just touched but instead it was crossed. It seems highly unlikely to me. Correct me if I'm wrong (with some evidence).

That being said I think these results are not realistic and should not be considered. I find it pointless to argue about this, let this be a warning for everyone getting too excited about this.

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  #434 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 3,874 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,554 given, 7,065 received
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Conclusion to SL settings

Even if I can not see any "crossing" of price in my chart above 7337 during the trade
I have to consider that:

1) when in february the thread was started - Dax was @ 67xx
2) today we are around @ 73xx

So the system's SL might be now to dense comparing a percentage previewed to avoid higher losses.

Conclusion to this Dax range SL-settings for the future:
medium risk days: 33 points
high risk days 44 points

This should us keep in silent water.

GFIs1

IMPORTANT NOTE: this thread (thanks to BigMike's great forum) is not selling any system - nor is it
a "trading room" for free. This thread and the GFIs1 system is to test a previewed every day trade
scenario to compare its results with the market.
As far as I can see adjacent threads today - there is NO other input to preview a trade with exact
entry time, exit time and direction. If there are others - please let me know.

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  #435 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 3,874 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,554 given, 7,065 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Thursday trade

Dax long from 09:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7353

exit @ 7320 (SL)

result minus 33 points

risk - medium

outlook - up to 74xx

GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; October 4th, 2012 at 04:27 AM.
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  #436 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 3,874 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,554 given, 7,065 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Friday trade

Dax short 09:30 to 14:30

entry @ 7321

exit @ 7354

result minus 33 points

risk - medium

outlook - small consolidation - awaiting US numbers in the afternoon


Last edited by GFIs1; October 6th, 2012 at 03:11 AM.
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  #437 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 3,874 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,554 given, 7,065 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Week 40 result

Bad start in the last quarter
Five trades taken -
one positive 6 points
four negative (2 with SL) - 74 points

Total this week: minus 68 points

Total points since week 1: 925 points

GFIs1

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  #438 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 3,874 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,554 given, 7,065 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Outlook - bigger picture

In the daily chart we see that the price of the Dax has danced around the black
spiral since two weeks. This consolidation phase will end around end of next
week as the Kumo "sideways" form ends there.
Then a new bullish phase should bring the price over the last high @ 7484.
This is shown with the red arrow.
Price should push higher (7650?) and reach a new peak around the last day of
October. From there a new consolidation phase may play during November.
This is marked with the green vertical line as top of the Kumo (Cloud).
Looking forward to see a year end rally.

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GFIs1

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  #439 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 3,874 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,554 given, 7,065 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Answers to cloud questions

In answering some incoming questions to Ichimoku cloud on posted Dax chart here:

The cloud shows some support / resistance zone which moves with the price development.
How we can see that price will not fall significantly in the next eight weeks:

1) Price is normally attracted by a horizontal line of the opposite side of the Kumo. (Bullish as Bearish Kumo)
If there is no opposite horizontal line - a price crossing the Kumo at that point is not probable.
2) A shrinking Kumo signifies some weakening of the support / resistance. The opposite is true
when the Kumo is thickening - this makes it nearly impossible of price crossing that cloud.

A view on the posted chart shows that a) there is no horizontal opposite cloud line and
b) the Kumo is thickening until the mentioned "peak" will happen. From there the support will
fade - and the "consolidation" happens again.

That easy. Hope this helps!

GFIs1

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  #440 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 3,874 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,554 given, 7,065 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Monday trade


Dax short 10:00 to 12:30

entry @ 7299

exit @ 7290

result plus 9 points

risk - medium

outlook - waiting for bullish outbreak later this week

GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; October 8th, 2012 at 06:31 AM.
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